The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

India doesn't have the resources to test as much as any western country. The official Indian stats are unlikely to be even close to the real situation for India. It'll be way worse.

Almost certainly so. But we will never know how much worse, because many if not most of those who don't experience severe symptoms from the disease will never be counted as having contracted it.
Meanwhile, NYT is surmising that "herd immunity" in the US may be an impossibility given the predominance of teh stoopid. And reporting here might be almost as bad as in India. Check this out:

MSNBC is celebrating a 7-day average dropping below 50k new cases/day. But World-o-Meters has it at around 50,250 - with 36 States refraining altogether from reporting yesterday (Sunday, no-bunny Easter).
New York, Texas and California combined reported zero cases. And if you believe that, I have a few bridges for sale...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What I do find a bit chilling is the new cases and death charts appear to have little lag.

Agreed. To me it says they're not diagnosing most cases until the patient is in dire shape.

Anyhow, Happy Easter II, everyone. No bunnies, no jelly beans, no creme eggs... what kind of deal is this anyhow?

Just 1pm here (Mt time zone), and we have only 15 States reporting 14,444 new cases today. Over 330,000 now for the week since 4/26.
But yesterday recorded a lowest single day reporting (42k+) in more than 7 months.
If there aren't another eighteen thousand + new cases reported today the 7-day average could go below 50,000.
A far cry from the latest Happy Talk prediction, but an encouraging trend nonetheless IMHO.

It will be interesting to see how bad the spread remains in regionally concentrated anti-vaxer/masker populations.

The US's record skipped, but the numbers seem to be declining again back to a very slowly descending plateau. And at 40,000 to 50,000 that isn't remotely low and it near double that it was after the initial outbreak. But states are going to feel pressured to open all things back up and we won't be ready for that, especially if reacquiring Covid is a 12-month thing. So the future spread in the US will be enormously difficult to predict.

There is the confinement from vaccination working against transmission (but 90+% isn't as good when only 50% are 90%).
Then you have the unvaccinated children. However, tracking transmission amongst them is impossible because we have no idea how many children already got it. But there will definitely be cross over in the summer.
Unvaccinated people that had the virus and transmissibility if they can get it again. 6 months, 12 months, 24 months? We are still months from a year anniversary of 1 million infected.
Too many unknowns. And the fatigue is way too high, and the partisan or anti-vax stupidity is through the damn roof.

 

[Elixir]

...fatigue is way too high, and the partisan or anti-vax stupidity is through the damn roof.

Chalk up another WIN for the trumpsucking maroons.
If additional vaccinations are required to keep the bulk of new cases confined to Republican anti-vax lemmings, that's fine by me*. Especially if it takes them out or keeps them too bed-ridden to vote.

* Not really, but it's better than everyone being in danger

 

[barbos]

On a year to to year basis US is worse than a year ago. The whole world is MUCH worse than a year ago.
I wonder about 2022 now.
Interestingly, situation in Russia is stable and infection rate is exactly the same as a year ago, but death rate is 2-3 times higher of that.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

On a year to to year basis US is worse than a year ago. The whole world is MUCH worse than a year ago.

The US has vaccinated about half the adult population, so that is helping a lot. Of course, a year to year review misses the quarter million dead between Thanksgiving and New Years in the US. It took this long for a much lesser fully developed nation to start overtaking the United States on Covid-19. Many in the US failed to Covid-19 mission.

I wonder about 2022 now.

That is a question of statistics / mutations and how long immunity lasts both for people that got Covid-19 and those that were immunized and our ability to track it, as well as the ability or even care to immunize the rest of Asia and Africa and South America.

 

[barbos]

I wonder about 2022 now.

That is a question of statistics / mutations and how long immunity lasts both for people that got Covid-19 and those that were immunized and our ability to track it, as well as the ability or even care to immunize the rest of Asia and Africa and South America.

All true, it's just realization that it's been a year and we are not close to the end at all. I am not at all sure that we would not be in the same situation a year from now.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I wonder about 2022 now.

That is a question of statistics / mutations and how long immunity lasts both for people that got Covid-19 and those that were immunized and our ability to track it, as well as the ability or even care to immunize the rest of Asia and Africa and South America.

All true, it's just realization that it's been a year and we are not close to the end at all. I am not at all sure that we would not be in the same situation a year from now.

If people got immunized, we'd be on the path to a global solution. I'd imagine, in the US, we'd be close to back to normal by Thanksgiving. I didn't think I'd be fully immunized at this point, I thought that'd been June/July. But for all the progress in the US, we've got people digging away at the levee saying it stopped raining, we don't have to worry about flooding anymore, as the water levels rise in the river.

 

[barbos]

If people got immunized, we'd be on the path to a global solution.

Brazil has a trumper for president. Same with India, the idiot declared a victory over Covid 2 months ago and let everyone do whatever they wanted.
That's not to say they were ever following any precautions. Africa is always a mess. Yeah, good luck with immunization of people. In Russia they seem to be concentrated on sending vaccine to elsewhere to earn some World Wide credit.

 

[Elixir]

Russia is stable and infection rate is exactly the same as a year ago, but death rate is 2-3 times higher of that.

...which should tell you* that Russian reporting is total crap.

* I'm fairly sure it won't tell you any such thing because you don't want to hear it. But it should.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

On a year to to year basis US is worse than a year ago. The whole world is MUCH worse than a year ago.
I wonder about 2022 now.
Interestingly, situation in Russia is stable and infection rate is exactly the same as a year ago, but death rate is 2-3 times higher of that.

In other words, Moscow is lying.

The death rate should be lower as we have learned more about treating it.

 

[Derec]

If people got immunized, we'd be on the path to a global solution.

Well, globally people now finally have access to more vaccine doses, but it's slow going. Developed countries are slowly saturating - US went from over 3 million to now just over 2 million vaccines per day. That means more doses will be available to the rest of the world. But of course, logistics will be a problem. Johnson and Johnson and AstraZeneca, for all their problems, are easier to administer. Only one shot, and much warmer storage.

I'd imagine, in the US, we'd be close to back to normal by Thanksgiving.

Depending how you define "back to normal", it's going to be much sooner than that. Summer probably.

 

[Derec]

On a year to to year basis US is worse than a year ago.

How so?

The whole world is MUCH worse than a year ago.

I disagree. A year ago we knew precious little about COVID-19. We had no vaccines, which we do now. We also have some treatments that we did not back in May 2020.
There is also more testing going on today than back then.

I wonder about 2022 now.

By the end of July, we should have >60% of Americans vaccinated. Maybe even 70%. Between vaccines and natural immunity from infection, that is de facto herd immunity nationwide.

Vaccination rates in developing countries should be picking up by then too. By the end of the year, pretty much everybody in the world who wants the vaccine will be able to get one.

The only worry for 2022 would be a variant that can reliably escape the vaccine immune response.

Interestingly, situation in Russia is stable and infection rate is exactly the same as a year ago, but death rate is 2-3 times higher of that.

Which is very sus. If anything, the case mortality rate should be going down with experience of medical professionals in dealing with COVID and availability of treatments.

 

[Derec]

The US's record skipped, but the numbers seem to be declining again back to a very slowly descending plateau. And at 40,000 to 50,000 that isn't remotely low and it near double that it was after the initial outbreak.

During the initial outbreak testing rates were pretty low. We are measuring a bigger proportion of true cases than we did back then.

But states are going to feel pressured to open all things back up and we won't be ready for that, especially if reacquiring Covid is a 12-month thing. So the future spread in the US will be enormously difficult to predict.

Well, we have deployed the vaccines very successfully. And if we should need an annual booster, so be it.

There is the confinement from vaccination working against transmission (but 90+% isn't as good when only 50% are 90%).

Huh?

Then you have the unvaccinated children. However, tracking transmission amongst them is impossible because we have no idea how many children already got it. But there will definitely be cross over in the summer.

There was less transmission last Summer. More people spending time outdoors, where air currents and UV make the virus less of a problem. The real danger is indoor places, especially crowded indoor spaces like night clubs (Atlanta has been big on idiots partying it up during the worst of the pandemic!), classrooms and locker rooms (relevant for school sports). But Pfizer will likely get authorization to vaccinate children very soon.

Too many unknowns. And the fatigue is way too high, and the partisan or anti-vax stupidity is through the damn roof.

Fatigue was always predictable.
Anti-vaxing is not really a partisan thing. Many anti-vaxers are granola lefties.

 

[Derec]

Meanwhile, NYT is surmising that "herd immunity" in the US may be an impossibility given the predominance of teh stoopid.

Yeah, that's just stupid. Herd immunity is a combination of natural and vaccine immunity. About 40% of US has been infected, including the asymptomatic cases. About 30% is fully vaccinated (even though protection kicks in 10-12 days after first dose already). Assuming about 20% overlap, we are already at 50% immune nationwide. Not yet full herd immunity, but we are getting there, and fairly quickly.
Parts of the US are probably already at full herd immunity, almost the entire state of California for example. Other states like Georgia are almost there too.

And reporting here might be almost as bad as in India. Check this out:

Uhm no.

MSNBC is celebrating a 7-day average dropping below 50k new cases/day. But World-o-Meters has it at around 50,250 - with 36 States refraining altogether from reporting yesterday (Sunday, no-bunny Easter).

What are you talking about? 36 states not reporting is just not true.
Btw, for Monday the case count was 39k and only New Mexico and some of the islands did not report by now.

New York, Texas and California combined reported zero cases. And if you believe that, I have a few bridges for sale...

California reported 1,304 cases on Sunday. NY: 2950. TX: 1167.
What are you talking about?

 

[Elixir]

Yeah, that's just stupid. Herd immunity is a combination of natural and vaccine immunity. About 40% of US has been infected, including the asymptomatic cases. About 30% is fully vaccinated (even though protection kicks in 10-12 days after first dose already). Assuming about 20% overlap, we are already at 50% immune nationwide. Not yet full herd immunity, but we are getting there, and fairly quickly.

I am amazed that despite your consistent track record of never being anywhere near correct about ANYTHING related to this pandemic, here you are bloviating in contradiction to the best epidemiologists in the country. You sound just like a boilerplate Trumpsucker. I'd love to sucker you into another bet on your superstitious Happy Talk beliefs, but don't want to put Zipr in an awkward spot and I sure as hell don't want your money.

Parts of the US are probably already at full herd immunity, almost the entire state of California for example.

It takes a Special Kind of Stupid to think that California is a "herd". It's enough of a stretch (ask someone qualified) to construe the USA as a herd, given the openness of travel between this country and others.

Uhm no.

Sez the guy whose predictions are off by 300-400%.

MSNBC is celebrating a 7-day average dropping below 50k new cases/day. But World-o-Meters has it at around 50,250 - with 36 States refraining altogether from reporting yesterday (Sunday, no-bunny Easter).

What are you talking about? 36 states not reporting is just not true.

YaWN. A few more reported after the numbers were posted. When I posted that, it was the case. As was the 52,250 7-day average. Now, the 7-day average for Easter Sunday is is shown at 52,565.
Your unfamiliarity with how WoM works is another reason you should shut up and stop digging.

What are you talking about?

I was talking about what was reported at the time I posted that - DUH!
The numbers were dire enough WITHOUT the later additions - are you just trying to make yourself look even worse than your actual, miserable track record?

Let's have a little fun though, since you insist on spreading your dangerous Happy Talk.
When are we going to be down to <15k new cases per day, 7-day average?
Go ahead, Derec - show us how much you know about epidemiology and this pandemic!

(Hint: 3 unhinged posts in a row don't equal one cogent post)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Derec is hanging the hat that Covid-19 immunity lasts a while. We are at the anniversary of 1 million and in a month we'll be seeing the anniversary of it getting to 2 million people. The variants out there are different from 1 year ago, so the natural immunity benefit might be less significant than hat hanging would suggest. Between now and November, every month is an annual anniversary for about 1 million more people that were confirmed as getting it.

January 2021, variant B.1.1.7 is just starting to pick up steam, so the 20 million Americans that got Covid-19 before that haven't had it yet! The blips in Michigan and other northern states were primarily B.1.1.7.

So enough with this ridiculous optimism. The anti-Covid response optimism has yet to be right about anything!

 

[Elixir]

The anti-Covid response optimism has yet to be right about anything!

Between the Happy Talkers and the anti-vax/mask morons, they have created a self-fulfilling prophesy.
This coronavirus will join the swarm of others that are, in aggregate, called "the common cold". Common colds will just a little more deadly than what we have all been used to.
What is NOT going to happen is that it will go away, as predicted by such great minds as Donald Trump and Derec.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

By the end of July, we should have >60% of Americans vaccinated. Maybe even 70%. Between vaccines and natural immunity from infection, that is de facto herd immunity nationwide.

1) Previous infection doesn't give a lot of protection against the variants. Only vaccination should be counted.

2) 70% won't do it. We need 80% for herd immunity.

 

[bilby]

By the end of July, we should have >60% of Americans vaccinated. Maybe even 70%. Between vaccines and natural immunity from infection, that is de facto herd immunity nationwide.

1) Previous infection doesn't give a lot of protection against the variants. Only vaccination should be counted.

2) 70% won't do it. We need 80% for herd immunity.

Not anymore.

Now that there are variants that are considerably more infectious than the original strain, you need closer to 90%.

 

[Elixir]

By the end of July, we should have >60% of Americans vaccinated. Maybe even 70%. Between vaccines and natural immunity from infection, that is de facto herd immunity nationwide.

1) Previous infection doesn't give a lot of protection against the variants. Only vaccination should be counted.

2) 70% won't do it. We need 80% for herd immunity.

Not anymore.

Now that there are variants that are considerably more infectious than the original strain, you need closer to 90%.

Right... at least that's the estimate I've heard from credible sources (actual scientists). Which is to say - no, not gonna happen. Happy Talkers and anti-vax/maskers are making sure of that.
Derec's "herd immunity" is a pipedream. California, or other small regions are not herds. "Herds" in the context of herd immunity are isolated from individuals outside of the herd.