Swammerdami
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Interesting. To help those, like me, whose eyesight is very poor, here is a large version of that graph:
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The World-O-Meter Thread
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Interesting. To help those, like me, whose eyesight is very poor, here is a large version of that graph:
And note the highest blue state has a lot of fools (those who come here to gamble are fools.)
bilby
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You're right, if (and ONLY if) the increased testing takes place in a pool with roughly the same incidence of positive cases as the pool for the prior level of testing.
If tests were randomly distributed in the population, that would quite probably be true. But they're not.
If people without symptoms were becoming more likely to get tested than people with symptoms; Or people at low exposure risk were becoming more likely to be tested than those with a higher risk, then that would probably be true. But there's no evidence that that's the case.
The most plausible reason, IMO, why testing levels would increase is that more people are experiencing symptoms, or interacting with people who are displaying symptoms, and that is inspiring them to get tested. If that's the reason for the increase in tests, then it's quite probably an indication that things are getting worse, not better.
The data presented doesn't allow us to determine whether your hypothesis or mine is the correct one; But it certainly doesn't allow us to discard my pessimistic interpretation in favour of your optimistic one.
Jimmy Higgins
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Firstly, the tests to cases ratio is 10 to 1, roughly... or 10% positive... which is much higher than we want. When the tests go up too high, the positive rate should drop significantly if there is over testing. 10% positive isn't a sign of over testing. It is a sign of inadequate testing and the total number of new cases should be higher.
Additionally, we saw something similar happen back with the second wave, while the NE was simmering down, the cases in the nation were dropping... except they weren't. The large numbers in the Northeast were dropping quicker than the Southern states were increasing... but the Southern states were increasing... and then we hit a threshold where the numbers stopped appearing to improve and the South grabbed ahold of the pandemic and helped spread it around. Florida, Texas, and California are the large players in the latest wave, and with cases in Florida appearing to drop, that (and Labor Day weekend) is making the numbers appear rosier than they are, as states across the nation are seeing increases.
With football season here (High school, college, professional), cases in America are going to increase, much like we are seeing the UK, where they have stopped caring about the pandemic. Daily cases have doubled since about the beginning of August.
Elixir
Made in America
Happy Talk - AGAIN?!
Totally irresponsible, stupid and FALSE.
Please do explain why lagging indicators heading up are "good news" while all CURRENT indicators are also headed up. It's possible, but it looks more like a probable leveling off, not really in the category of "good news" in the sense of "it's heading down".
I understand why betting is discouraged here, but still ...
Fauci was probably correct again when he predicted a peak in October for the Delta variant. There's another new one coming of course...
"Currently referred to as the C.1.2 variant, it is yet to be called a variant of interest or concern by the World Health Organization (WHO), but is drawing the attention of scientists due to the number and types of mutations it contains and the speed at which the mutations have occurred."
This should be a flashing orange light on the dashboard, indicating an increased likelihood of the emergence of an even more virulent strain ... maybe more Happy Talk is needed to create the complacency that conservatives seem to think of as "The Solution" (along with bleach, hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin).
Jimmy Higgins
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Captain Optimistic: Good news everyone! Death and hospitalizations are rising!
The People: How is that good news.
Captain Optimistic: They are lagging indicators.
The People: And that means what that is good.
Captain Optimistic: It means that eventually they'll drop.
The People: ???
The People: How is that good news.
Captain Optimistic: They are lagging indicators.
The People: And that means what that is good.
Captain Optimistic: It means that eventually they'll drop.
The People: ???
bilby
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In New South Wales, there's an outbreak ongoing with about 1,200 new cases per day. They are performing about 100,000 tests per day to detect these, and are apparently not missing any at this level of testing, as indicated by the low number of new cases in people not known to have interacted with known cases.
It seems likely that if testing were an order of magnitude less prevalent, a significant fraction of cases would go undetected. If cases are popping up in towns or suburbs where contacts with known cases are unlikely, that tells you that you're missing people. Of course, if you don't limit people's movement and/or trace where they have been, you cannot get that important data, which is another reason why it's literally a matter of life and death importance to limit people's "freedom" during a pandemic.
And by "freedom", I of course mean the American concept of "freedom", ie what the rest of the world would call "selfishness".
Elixir
Made in America
Yay. Seems like we should win something for that.
Over 1600 daily deaths now (reported). But whats another hundred dead per day, more or less, in the grand scheme of things?
Nothing that can put any kind of hesitance into our Happy Talker.
Jimmy Higgins
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What is maddening is that this wave is brought on by almost nothing but Spite.
thebeave
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Well, not necessarily. Some of us just happen to not like swollen testicles, that's all.
Elixir
Made in America
Some of you need to grow a pair in the first place, if Niki Minaj is your medical advisor.
Jimmy Higgins
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People dying.
*stupid joke*
Haw, so funny!
*stupid joke*
Haw, so funny!
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Niki Minaj and her cousin are idiots. The friend got the Bangkok drippy-drip and tried to pass it off as coming from the vax. My guess is the girlfriend figured it out that he had been cheating on her and that's why she broke off the engagement.
thebeave
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Sorry about the testicle joke. I'll try to fit in here a little better next time, as follows:
People dying.
barbos
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Australia infection rate looks like any other place. What's going on?
bilby
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FTFY.
Gladbags Binchicken, the NSW premier, drank the right-wing kool-aid.
Because she's a fucking moron.
barbos
Contributor
You are not so different after all. Vietnam has also fallen and looks like other countries.
Almost 2 years and we are not doing well at all.
Almost 2 years and we are not doing well at all.
bilby
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Queensland, my home state, has had 510 locally acquired cases, and seven deaths.
That's not per day, or per week; Those are the grand total figures for the entire time since Covid was first identified as a disease.
In addition, our healthcare system has been responsible for the treatment of 1,505 cases acquired outside the state, and identified either in quarantine facilities, or on offshore vessels (we have had a number of severe cases brought to onshore hospitals for treatment from cargo ships off our coast).
Our population is about 5.5 million, 3.5 million of whom live in the Greater Brisbane conurbation.
Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory are also basically Covid free, and have a zero tolerance policy in place, whereby any location where a single case is detected is locked down until contact tracers are confident that all exposed persons have been identified and quarantined.
Travel to these states and territories from New South Wales, Victoria, and the ACT, is highly restricted. As the Queensland-NSW border actually runs through the City of the Gold Coast, this has caused major upheavals, but it's undoubtedly saved hundreds, maybe thousands, of lives. Special arrangements are in place for Gold Coast residents who live on one side of the border, but work, shop, or attend schools and hospitals on the other side.
barbos
Contributor
grand totals are irrelevant at this point. Trend is important and you have a much bigger spike this time. Looks like your measures had not been enough for delta.
Russia is going nowhere too. Around my shithole 80% people don't care anymore.
The world is heading toward everyone eventually getting it, some dying, and a lot having permanent complications.
By the way, considering that AU is still serious about C19, I assume you still do the tracing. What does it tell?
What are the typical transmission scenarios? My impression is that 20% of people cause 80% of transmission.
Russia is going nowhere too. Around my shithole 80% people don't care anymore.
The world is heading toward everyone eventually getting it, some dying, and a lot having permanent complications.
By the way, considering that AU is still serious about C19, I assume you still do the tracing. What does it tell?
What are the typical transmission scenarios? My impression is that 20% of people cause 80% of transmission.