The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

What a mess.
Floriduh is a real model for Republican pandemic management; laws against suppressing the virus with masks or vaccines are being enforced by Governor DethSentins under pain of de-funding schools (which he is on his third tack, trying to make effective).
It's getting weird. More trumpsuckers are getting sick, and the polls are trending against the Governor. It seems that his hope is that the virus will run its course at whatever human cost by the time of the next election, and everyone will have forgotten about about everything except how he fought for their free-dumb. Probably not a bad bet, as long as there isn't an even more deadly Gamma Variant or something that comes out of the Florida petri dish in the meanwhile.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There was an article about the GOP being at risk of being the face of this spike... but they apparently weren't the face of all the other spikes they were responsible for. So why would this be any different?

Rick Scott's company defrauded Medicare for over $100 million... and then he was elected Governor and then US Senator in Florida.

 

[Elixir]

There was an article about the GOP being at risk of being the face of this spike... but they apparently weren't the face of all the other spikes they were responsible for. So why would this be any different?

Rick Scott's company defrauded Medicare for over $100 million... and then he was elected Governor and then US Senator in Florida.

Right - the tactic of letting it run its course is probably a good one. Or as good as any avenue available to DethSetins. UNLESS, as I mentioned, there comes yet another product of his foolishness to wreak death upon his constituents.

Right now I'm wondering if ANY Republican candidates for election in 2022 are going to indulge in debates. Seems to me that unless they're willing to go full trump and never shut up, their association with anti-Americanism could be a problem on the debate stage.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Will De Santis also ban mandatory hurricane evacuations? That seems like infringes on people’s freedoms too.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Will De Santis also ban mandatory hurricane evacuations? That seems like infringes on people’s freedoms too.

Huh? Knock down the weather satellites, there won't be any more hurricanes.

 

[Derec]

Right now I'm wondering if ANY Republican candidates for election in 2022 are going to indulge in debates.

Unless Dems nominate another meth head, they have a good chance winning this one. Just saying.

 

[Derec]

What a mess.

FL is probably peaking soon based on the shape and the fact that there are fewer susceptible people than a month ago. LA and AR too.

Floriduh is a real model for Republican pandemic management; laws against suppressing the virus with masks or vaccines are being enforced by Governor DethSentins under pain of de-funding schools (which he is on his third tack, trying to make effective).

He is an idiot, but Louisiana is doing just as bad, and it has a Dem governor.

It's getting weird. More trumpsuckers are getting sick, and the polls are trending against the Governor. It seems that his hope is that the virus will run its course at whatever human cost by the time of the next election, and everyone will have forgotten about about everything except how he fought for their free-dumb.

Well, voters have a pretty short attention span. And given how easily and quickly δ spreads, Florida will probably be where it was in mid-July by Labor Day - around 6k-7k or so - or maybe even less than that. Plenty of time to forget all about it by 2022 elections, unless there is another variant that can evade existing immunity.

Probably not a bad bet, as long as there isn't an even more deadly Gamma Variant or something that comes out of the Florida petri dish in the meanwhile.

We are already up to λ in naming apparently. So the next one should be μ then.

 

[Derec]

Yup. We are basically at November 2020. That was the last time we saw an increase curve at this angle (or near to it) from a similar number of daily cases. If it increases at this rate through the anticipated September peak, it will be ugly.

The situation is very different than November 2020. Back then nobody was vaccinated, and a lot fewer were previously infected. Now over half (and three quarters of adults) are fully vaccinated and more than a third have been previously infected, even if asymptomatic and untested. So there are a lot fewer susceptible people out there. Now δ is a lot more infectious, which explains the sharp spike, but it should burn out itself quickly compared to last Fall/Winter. By 2nd week of September, we should be peaking nationwide and the states that are doing the worst now (FL, LA, AR) should be well along the downslope.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Will De Santis also ban mandatory hurricane evacuations? That seems like infringes on people’s freedoms too.

Huh? Knock down the weather satellites, there won't be any more hurricanes.

Satellites?? You some kind of globe believer??

 

[barbos]

Poland is still doing great. What's their secret?

 

[Elixir]

Right now I'm wondering if ANY Republican candidates for election in 2022 are going to indulge in debates.

Unless Dems nominate another meth head, they have a good chance winning this one. Just saying.

Who is the meth head, and what is the significance of one 2022 candidate?
34 Senate seats and 435 House seats are up for grabs. A meth head here and there isn’t going to make much difference. What would “winning” look like if it’s just one not-meth-head?

 

[Elixir]

Yup. We are basically at November 2020. That was the last time we saw an increase curve at this angle (or near to it) from a similar number of daily cases. If it increases at this rate through the anticipated September peak, it will be ugly.

The situation is very different than November 2020.

Yet, we are basically back at November 2020 in terms of the current rate of increase.

... more than a third have been previously infected, even if asymptomatic and untested.

Pulling numbers out of your ass does change thing, nor does it negate my point. Last time you did that, it cost you $100.

By 2nd week of September, we should be peaking nationwide and the states that are doing the worst now (FL, LA, AR) should be well along the downslope.

Yeah, that's what I said, plus or minus a week or two. FL already shows some signs of leveling off. It will be ugly by September.

 

[Derec]

Yet, we are basically back at November 2020 in terms of the current rate of increase.

Because the δ variant is so much more infectious.
But the situation is very different. The number of susceptible people is lower, which means the duration and therefore the total number infected in this spike, will be lower.

Pulling numbers out of your ass does change thing,

I am not pulling numbers out of my ass.
CDC is estimating that 120M have been infected already, which is a little more than a third.

nor does it negate my point.

Your point was that we are basically in the same situation as last November. We are not.

Yeah, that's what I said, plus or minus a week or two. FL already shows some signs of leveling off. It will be ugly by September.

I think September will be better than August. FL, LA, AR will be well past peak, and while some states may show a late surge, it will almost certainly not be anywhere near where those three states are now. Vaccinations have luckily increased somewhat since the late Spring slump and are at ~700k/day. That means that more than 5 million additional people will get fully vaccinated by the start of September. We did not have this weapon back in November.

 

[Derec]

Who is the meth head, and what is the significance of one 2022 candidate?

Andrew Gillum, the guy Dems nominated to run against DeSantis in 2018.

34 Senate seats and 435 House seats are up for grabs.

I thought you were talking about the DeSantis race specifically.

 

[Elixir]

Your point was that we are basically in the same situation as last November. We are not.

8/6/2021: New cases (7 day avg) - 102,749
8/16/2021: New cases (7 day avg) - 134,382
Increase: 30.7% in ten days


10/6/2020: New cases (7 day avg) - 105,492
10/16/2020: New cases (7 day avg) - 160,202
Increase: 50.1% in ten days

So, when I said we were "basically in the same situation", we were basically in the same situation.
Your happy talk was wrong in January, it was wrong in April and it's still WRONG.
I am surprised that you are not learning anything as you go. But that is a right wing trait, so it's my bad for not expecting it.

34 Senate seats and 435 House seats are up for grabs.

I thought you were talking about the DeSantis race specifically.

Read for comprehension, and note the plural form:
"Right now I'm wondering if ANY Republican candidates for election in 2022 are going to indulge in debates."

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Lets see. Cases are on the rise, schools are quarantining a decent of students, some schools like in Tampa area are pondering what in the world they can do with nearly 1000 positives, and over half being children and most of them in the last week alone.

Meanwhile, Americans are going to large indoor events without masks... spreading the disease more.

What is different now? Oh yeah, Derec is right.

Today, about half of America is fully vaccinated. That wasn't true 12 months ago.

Today, people who are vaccinated are getting the disease (Delta variant) That is different too.

Today, we lack the tools to contain the pandemic because of the Delta spread and the GOP refusing to act. In fact, they are purposefully impeding mitigations to slow down the spread. That is also new, and with the vaccinated spreading the disease unknowingly, the spread is even larger. That is newer.

And today we have laws preventing mandates on masks. That is new, which is leading to spread levels higher than seen before vaccines were available. So that is new too.

I think it is impressive for someone to look at the current situation, see that even more people getting the virus and thinking... we are near the end of this. We kind of are. We are slowly running of out people to get infected!

 

[Swammerdami]

Right now I'm wondering if ANY Republican candidates for election in 2022 are going to indulge in debates.

Unless Dems nominate another meth head, they have a good chance winning this one. Just saying.

I envy you two your optimism. But I think a famous American commentator got it right:

Nobody ever went broke by underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

 

[Elixir]

I envy you two your optimism. But I think a famous American commentator got it right:

Nobody ever went broke by underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

Hey, there's always a first time. And if it's not in 2022* (I am not terribly optimistic that it will be), then this attempt at democracy is most certainly down the drain.

* To be clear, I believe Republicans are betting the farm on American stupidity in '22

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

At World-o-Meter it seems it is quite clear that Florida isn't labeling causes of death for Covid-19 patients that died. Their daily Deathantis Tolls are easily a magnitude lower than every other state.

 

[Elixir]

At World-o-Meter it seems it is quite clear that Florida isn't labeling causes of death for Covid-19 patients that died. Their daily Deathantis Tolls are easily a magnitude lower than every other state.

Also, neither they nor anyone else seems to be venturing so much as a guess as to how many people have died/are dying from "other causes" due to hospital overcrowding resulting from COVID.