The World-O-Meter Thread

[Derec]

Your desire for it to be so doesn't make it so.

And ignoring sociatal (economic as well as psychological) impact of the lockdowns does not make this impact go away.

Whether there can be any such middle ground is entirely dependent on the way the virus spreads through the population, and what measures are effective in limiting that spread to a sufficient extent as to keep deaths and permanent disabilities to an acceptable level.

At the same time, full measures as exist now are not sustainable in the long run. Something has to give.
It is very likely that this first (and hopefully only major) wave of COVID19 will dissipate by the end of May. So let us hope that will have widespread testing available to avoid the risk of a second wave resuming.
And I do not propose we go back to normal in June, but many restrictions will have to be lifted by then, businesses will have to start opening etc. Luckily schools are already out of session in Summer, and colleges can cancel their Summer sessions just to be safe and prepare for Fall.
The goal is to reopen the society without getting another full outbreak.

Of course, we don't yet know any of the variables with certainty, so there's a wide range of possibilities; But at this stage, it seems more likely than not that any attempt to reduce the severity of the lockdown, before either an effective treatment or an effective vaccine (or both) are widely and cheaply available, would be disastrous - and it's very unlikely indeed that either will be available as soon as Christmas 2020, much less June.

Since it will be impossible as a practical matter to maintain the severity of restrictions until lChristmas, we will have to ease them by June. The question is - how to best approach that?
NY will probably get to ease restrictions first, as they are set to peak soonest. What restrictions they choose to lift at what schedule and what happens in the aftermath will give a signal to states that are further behind in the disease dynamics, so they will be able to mimic and adjust what NY does.

Wishes, hopes, and desires count for nothing. Reality is real, and doesn't give two shits about the economy.

Economy is part of reality. It's not something outside reality. Same goes for psychology.

This is not a negotiation; We either do what is necessary, or lots of people die. No middle ground, no compromises, no appeals to the dire impact on the economy, or on people's preferences and wants.

Of course there can be middle ground. Strict measures are necessary now because of an active outbreak, but later on we will have more flexibility. Also, there is always a trade-off. There were more than 40k traffic deaths in 2019. Vast majority of them could have been avoided if speed limits were 35mph on all highways. But that is not a realistic restriction, and neither is maintaining full lockdown well into June.

We don't have to like it, and we can't make a deal with it, so we have to cope with it.

Finding a way to ease restrictions while not causing a second full outbreak is coping with it.

 

[Derec]

Yesterday was a bad day - almost 2,000 dead. New cases were flat though. I hope the death spike is an outlier.

It's time to pay more attention to the new cases. The deaths were new cases days or weeks ago. That figure is going to lag...

Daily cases have been pretty flat, on average, over the last week. And yes, deaths lag cases.

 

[Elixir]

04-08

New cases, new deaths in the US flat-to-sightly down...
Critical cases edged up despite 1970 deaths yesterday (I assume that today's deaths were critical yesterday).

 

[bilby]

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

I agree. It will be a while before we truly reach status quo ante. But significant easing of restrictions will be necessary before we all lose our minds. And jobs.

Not if the consequences are many of us losing our lives.

This isn't a negotiation. You don't get to reduce the lockdown on the basis of avoiding consequences less important than death, unless you can show that death is not a plausible consequence of those reductions, it's better to fuck the economy, and even the mental health of many citizens, than it is to kill millions.

You cannot negotiate with a pandemic disease. The art of the deal is irrelevant in this situation.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.

But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

NY is having 8,000 new cases a day with this. shutdown for a while now If they open up, that number will increase. What is the acceptable number of new cases before the risk to the vulnerable is too high? Or are we telling the vulnerable to stay inside and isolated for 12 to 18 months?

 

[Elixir]

04-09

The apparent plateau in new deaths and new cases continues. Up to 50 US deaths per million population. Spain is at 330 deaths/m and if we get there, we'll be real close to the 100k for which Trump gives himself a perfect 10. This plateau might go on for a while, even if it doesn't climb.

 

[Keith&Co.]

The apparent plateau in new deaths and new cases continues.

i am leery of any numbers anymore.
The Department of Defense has directed all bases to stop reporting COVID19 cases.

 

[bilby]

The apparent plateau in new deaths and new cases continues.

i am leery of any numbers anymore.
The Department of Defense has directed all bases to stop reporting COVID19 cases.

And rightly so. Reporting bad news only helps the Kaiser, and undermines our boys in France who are fighting for our way of life.

 

[Elixir]

The apparent plateau in new deaths and new cases continues.

i am leery of any numbers anymore.
The Department of Defense has directed all bases to stop reporting COVID19 cases.

Yup. The "reported" numbers get more and more suspect every day as the PINO gets his tiny fingers deeper and deeper into the reporting process. Claiming misattributed deaths, falsified reporting of cases and every other possible lie they can cook up, the Trump Junta will do ANYTHING to avoid any culpability for their incompetence, negligence and dereliction of duty. There is nothing we can use any more to anticipate what's going to happen, and it will be difficult to tell what did happen, even in retrospect. Maybe the most telling, reliable statistic - because it will difficult for FOX/Trump to alter or spin - will be the drop in Americans' life expectancy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The apparent plateau in new deaths and new cases continues.

i am leery of any numbers anymore.
The Department of Defense has directed all bases to stop reporting COVID19 cases.

DoD on 3/30 said they'd release the numbers.
Sec of Defense on 3/31 said they'd stop releasing the numbers. Don't want North Korea thinking we are susceptible to invasion. I mean China did storm Taiwan after news of the USS Theodore Roosevelt got out.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

NY is having 8,000 new cases a day with this. shutdown for a while now If they open up, that number will increase. What is the acceptable number of new cases before the risk to the vulnerable is too high? Or are we telling the vulnerable to stay inside and isolated for 12 to 18 months?

Keeping things locked down until we have a vaccine isn't viable. We are going to have to open things up somewhat, the question is what we can do without cases exploding.

 

[bilby]

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

NY is having 8,000 new cases a day with this. shutdown for a while now If they open up, that number will increase. What is the acceptable number of new cases before the risk to the vulnerable is too high? Or are we telling the vulnerable to stay inside and isolated for 12 to 18 months?

Keeping things locked down until we have a vaccine isn't viable. We are going to have to open things up somewhat, the question is what we can do without cases exploding.

The universe is under no obligation to contain an option that is viable.

This is not a negotiation. Economic "necessity" comes second to avoiding mass deaths.

 

[fromderinside]

It's more plain than that bilby. If there are mass deaths there is no economic anything.

 

[Elixir]

04-10

Steady as she goes for the US's slow climb. Half million case mark attained. USA now the founding member of the 2K Club (deaths/day). Body bags now running out and bodies literally piling up. Very much as well planned by the Trump Administration, going very well, we'll be opening things up in a very short period of time.

 

[Elixir]

It's more plain than that bilby. If there are mass deaths there is no economic anything.

We are well into Monty Python territory with all of this. Obviously the solution is to re-define "mass deaths". None of us would object to "opening things up" if only one death was involved - in fact we have a fine upstanding gentleman from Texas who already volunteered to sacrifice himself for the economy. On the other extreme we would all agree that if everyone dies, only the planet wins, and the economy goes extinct. And we don't want that.

So what's it gonna be? Why not set limits? We all stay home if we start bagging (figuratively, since we literally don't have that many bags) three or four thousand a day? Maybe compromise with The Mob and let it rip until we get to five thousand a day, then we all stay home for two weeks and see if it goes back down to two thousand a day, then we open things up again? Oh wait - Dear Leader doesn't want to lead, so we aren't ALL going to do ANYTHING. So that cycle will go on until we get something better than a PINO, even if it's five years

 

[Trausti]

Steady as she goes for the US's slow climb. Half million case mark attained. USA now the founding member of the 2K Club (deaths/day). Body bags now running out and bodies literally piling up. Very much as well planned by the Trump Administration, going very well, we'll be opening things up in a very short period of time.

View attachment 27032

Trump is not responsible for de Blasio's idiocy.

 

[bilby]

Steady as she goes for the US's slow climb. Half million case mark attained. USA now the founding member of the 2K Club (deaths/day). Body bags now running out and bodies literally piling up. Very much as well planned by the Trump Administration, going very well, we'll be opening things up in a very short period of time.

View attachment 27032

Trump is not responsible for de Blasio's idiocy.

Trump isn't responsible for anything. He accepts no responsibility.

It's just a shame that, as President of the United States, he is ultimately responsible. The captain is responsible for what happens on (and to) his ship; Even if he is asleep in his cabin (or campaigning for reelection, or playing golf) at the time.

A responsible position incurrs responsibility for ensuring that others don't fuck things up. If the captain of an oil tanker leaves a junior crewman in charge of the ship, and it hits an iceberg, then the captain is at fault - even if he was asleep at the time - because it's the captain's job to ensure that those who act in his absence do so with adequate skill, training, and support. Sure, you might also blame the junior man who actually drove the ship into a mountain of ice; but no matter how much blame that junior has heaped upon him, it exonerates the captain not one iota.

The chief executive is responsible for the acts of all those in his organisation.

The President of the United States is responsible for the protection of the United States against all enemies, foreign, domestic, and microscopic.

A person who isn't prepared to embrace that harsh and often unfair level of responsibility shouldn't attempt to obtain the position.

It's his job to be responsible. FDR was responsible for Pearl Harbor. If he couldn't stop it, it was his job to fix it. Trump is responsible for CoVID-19. And for him to even contemplate the possibility of suggesting that he won't accept that responsibility is an abdication of the position that he holds.

It's irrelevant what other leaders, responsible for lesser jurisdictions, might say or do. It was Trump's job to overrule them, if to do so was in the vital interest of the nation.

Your country has no president; And hasn't had one since he declared that he doesn't accept responsibility. Accepting responsibility is literally his only job.

 

[Elixir]

Your country has no president; And hasn't had one since he declared that he doesn't accept responsibility. Accepting responsibility is literally his only job.

NO! Orange man GOOD! Trumpsucker say so!

Trump is not responsible for de Blasio's idiocy.

Not surprised that you didn't bother to click the link. Doesn't exist if you don't see it, right?
How about Detroit, where bodies are piling up? Must be because of "The Woman". Sure as hell doesn't have anything to do with the SEVEN WEEKS Trump golfed away before doing anything at all.

 

[fromderinside]

Back to the sucking small things jokes again. First thumbs now Trump's ...

 

[Derec]

It's more plain than that bilby. If there are mass deaths there is no economic anything.

Obviously nobody wants mass deaths. But there is always a trade-off when it comes to public safety. I do not think we can maintain a shutdown of the economy indefinitely.