The World-O-Meter Thread

[Jimmy Higgins]

To open up, we need more testing and with contact tracing. We also need reliably accurate antibody testing, which is being developed now. That will show who has had it and so can safely be in public.

Jebus, would that even work, in application, not the theory. I can't imagine people not lying about that.

Then we'd probably see Covid-19 parties pop up, so they could get it and then not worry about it.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.

 

[Jokodo]

Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.

What about delayed reporting?

 

[Horatio Parker]

Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.

What about delayed reporting?

What about it?

 

[blastula]

To open up, we need more testing and with contact tracing. We also need reliably accurate antibody testing, which is being developed now. That will show who has had it and so can safely be in public.

Jebus, would that even work, in application, not the theory. I can't imagine people not lying about that.

Then we'd probably see Covid-19 parties pop up, so they could get it and then not worry about it.

The main hurdle is making an accurate enough test, the other part is easier.

Germany To Introduce Coronavirus 'Immunity Certificates' For Recovered Public - Newsweek

My idea is we wear collars around our neck with a covid tag.

 

[Jokodo]

Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.

What about delayed reporting?

What about it?

Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

 

[Elixir]

The main hurdle is making an accurate enough test, the other part is easier.

Watching coverage of Suffolk Cty NY where they have drive through testing.
FORTY SIX percent testing positive!
If there are significant numbers of false negatives I shudder to think...

 

[blastula]

That's testing for the virus, which is reportedly accurate with good swabbing technique.

Apparently, accurate antibody testing is typically harder to achieve, can get too many false positives (meaning the test will say you have had the disease when you did not).

There's also the issue of whether and how long immunity lasts for covid.

 

[Elixir]

That's testing for the virus, which is reportedly accurate with good swabbing technique.

Apparently, accurate antibody testing is typically harder to achieve, can get too many false positives (meaning the test will say you have had the disease when you did not).

There's also the issue of whether and how long immunity lasts for covid.

It'll be interesting to see what the mortality rate is from C-19 infections in Suffolk county once all the newly discovered positives are factored in...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What about it?

Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

The last week has generally been a slower incline. We are not longer at that 25 to 30+ percent daily increase. 10 percent is much better, but it is still an increase.

 

[Elixir]

What about it?

Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

The last week has generally been a slower incline. We are not longer at that 25 to 30+ percent daily increase. 10 percent is much better, but it is still an increase.

Yup. As long as the "R" value (re-infection rate) remains above 1, the light at the end of the tunnel remains distant.

 

[Horatio Parker]

What about it?

Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

I don't know statistics, but the curve origin is from day 0, not simply the last few days. A few days ago, it pointed to 85k by 4-26. That could be noise, but from 1M to 75k? That's a fuckuva lot of underreporting.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What about it?

Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

I don't know statistics, but the curve origin is from day 0, not simply the last few days. A few days ago, it pointed to 85k by 4-26. That could be noise, but from 1M to 75k? That's a fuckuva lot of underreporting.

Yes, the exponential equations stopped fitting the latest data a bit ago (relatively speaking). And the reduction in test positives follows in line with the shutdowns in the schools, states, and cities. IE, the data being reported makes sense.

 

[Jokodo]

What about it?

Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

The last week has generally been a slower incline. We are not longer at that 25 to 30+ percent daily increase. 10 percent is much better, but it is still an increase.

Yes, and my question is, how sure are we that the daily figures for the last week are final? Do we have a precedent for by how much they might get retroactively corrected?

 

[ZiprHead]

View attachment 26983

I have to go shopping. Where can I get one of those?

 

[lpetrich]

False negatives? That makes me think of Rep. Katie Porter, who suffered from COVID-19 symptoms but who tested negative:

Rep. Katie Porter says she's self-quarantining while awaiting coronavirus test results | TheHill
Rep. Katie Porter self-quarantines as she waits for coronavirus test results – Orange County Register
Rep. Katie Porter tests negative for the coronavirus – Orange County Register

She herself: Rep. Katie Porter on Twitter: "When I was elected, I committed to being transparent and accountable. I have kept that promise throughout my time in Congress. (1/4)" / Twitter

When I was elected, I committed to being transparent and accountable. I have kept that promise throughout my time in Congress. (1/4)

Last week, I developed cold-like symptoms followed by fatigue. I stayed home and spoke to my healthcare provider. (2/4)

Over the weekend, I had a fever over 100.4 degrees. As instructed, I continued to isolate in my bedroom and phoned my provider. I carefully followed all instructions to visit my doctor and received a test for COVID-19. I am waiting for results. (3/4)

I will remain in self-quarantine until I have the test results back and until directed by my doctor that it is safe for me to leave my home. I am participating by telephone in Congressional business and listening to the concerns of our Orange County community. (4/4)

P.S. My children are so far healthy and handling things well, and I did make sure to wear a mask!

 

[bilby]

View attachment 26985

That picture is from 1958, not WWII. It shows a French Foreign Legionaire in Algeria, carrying a donkey that was found starving and too weak to stand. There's no minefield. And the donkey became a regimental mascot. They gave it the name 'Bambi'.

But apart from that, the caption is completely correct.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/soldier-carrying-donkey/

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.

But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

 

[Derec]

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

I agree. It will be a while before we truly reach status quo ante. But significant easing of restrictions will be necessary before we all lose our minds. And jobs.

 

[Elixir]

The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.

But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".

The idea is not to continue the current level of lockdown, but to open things up somewhat--the case count will rise but it won't spike so high as wide open policies cause. Things like masks and 6' distancing are probably here for the duration.

I think that "middle ground" will have to be created de novo, like Palm Island in Dubai. We don't know how much immunity a mild case confers or for how long. We don't even have a good handle on all the mechanisms of transmission and their contributions to the overall infection rates. Novel behavioral modifications will evolve as long as the information base builds and there remains no vaccine and no silver bullet treatment. But as we learn more, we can make our behavioral modifications increasingly effective and decreasingly inconvenient, personally and economically. A new normal approacheth.