The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

Relaxing restrictions while the virus is still active anywhere in the population will just put us back to square one, unless we have a vaccine or a highly reliable and practically universal testing regime.

That's right. There isn't even a plan to develop a national testing regime, because as usual, the truth is something that the PINO would prefer to sweep under the rug.
"Relax and monitor" is sheer idiocy. By the time anything shows up on your monitor, it's at least two weeks too late and a massive epidemic would already be underway. "Relax and monitor" is what Trump did while he was playing golf from January 21 until March 13th, at which time he declared a national emergency, then proceeded to neglect the responsibilities that constitutionally accrue to the executive branch in a national emergency. Now we're pushing 30,000 dead, and virtually guaranteed AT LEAST twice that by the time the virus runs its course, even under total shutdown conditions.

Only an utter fool would think that Covfefe-19 v.2.0 would be any better, especially with the current cast of clowns in charge at the federal level.

 

[bilby]

Social distancing has worked at slowing down inflections, now we don't need to socially distance any more. Or we can continue social distancing but just without the distance part.

We were driving towards a cliff, but pressing the brake has worked. So now we can safely take our foot off the brake and drive forward again.

No.

The cliff edge is still there. We cannot take our foot off the brake, until a bridge has been built (vaccination); or at least until we can see exactly where the edge is, so we can steer clear (an accurate and widely used test is available).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Social distancing has worked at slowing down inflections, now we don't need to socially distance any more. Or we can continue social distancing but just without the distance part.

We were driving towards a cliff, but pressing the brake has worked. So now we can safely take our foot off the brake and drive forward again.

Pretty much the analogy. I wasn't being serious. I thought the sarcasm was obvious.

That there dam has kept the water back for 50 years. Don't need the dam to do it anymore.

 

[Elixir]

New cases still hovering around 30k/day. Deaths now close to 2500/day.
America, first.

 

[Politesse]

Well, Trump did promise to put America first.

 

[bilby]

Social distancing has worked at slowing down inflections, now we don't need to socially distance any more. Or we can continue social distancing but just without the distance part.

We were driving towards a cliff, but pressing the brake has worked. So now we can safely take our foot off the brake and drive forward again.

Pretty much the analogy. I wasn't being serious. I thought the sarcasm was obvious.

That there dam has kept the water back for 50 years. Don't need the dam to do it anymore.

I rather like this analogy:

 

[Jokodo]

NYC is now publishing data not only on confirmed deaths but also on suspected COVID-19 deaths, and on all deaths during the pandemic.

In the period from March 11 to April 14 inclusive (34 days, March 11 is when the first confirmed COVID-19 death in the city occurred), there were

6840 confirmed COVID-19 deaths
4059 probable COVID-19 deaths
8914 Deaths not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19

Note that even the latter number alone is significantly more than the expected background death rate for the city: it corresponds to 262 deaths per day, while the average is ~170 a day. The sum of all three figures is about 3.5 times the normal death rate. Also note the timeframe this refers to: COVID-19 deaths where much fewer in much of March, so the actual death rate for the last couple of weeks must be even higher than an average of March 11 - April 14 suggests.

Just in case someone still wants to claim that "many of those people would have died anyway" or "they're counting cancer deaths who just happened to test positive to the virus".

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/dow...-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04152020.pdf

 

[lpetrich]

I decided to check on the stats for the Nordic countries, in cases, deaths, and tests per million people.

• Iceland: 5,061 23 109,558
• Denmark: 1,153 53 13,417
• Norway: 1,254 28 24,020
• Sweden: 1,181 119 7,387
• Finland: 584 13 8,813

So it helps to do a lot of testing and to get into action quickly.

 

[ronburgundy]

I decided to check on the stats for the Nordic countries, in cases, deaths, and tests per million people.

• Iceland: 5,061 23 109,558
• Denmark: 1,153 53 13,417
• Norway: 1,254 28 24,020
• Sweden: 1,181 119 7,387
• Finland: 584 13 8,813

So it helps to do a lot of testing and to get into action quickly.

I'm not sure that the right conclusion from those data. Sweden and Finland are both doing much less testing, yet Sweden has more than double the deaths per capita of other Nordic countries while Finland has the fewest. That's probably b/c Sweden is the only country among them not engaging in any social distancing. All their bars, cafes, and restaurants are open and people are socializing largely like normal. IOW, the lesson is that social distancing greatly lowers the death rate. Note that Sweden's death's per capita is also higher than the US. And while Sweden's death per capita is 8th among developed countries, it is #1 if you divide by population density. The implication is the most deaths in Sweden would have been avoided with social distancing. They are realizing this now and considering changing their policy.

Similar less for the US, which is 11th in the developed world in deaths per capita but has a lower pop density than all the countries ahead of it other than Sweden.

 

[ronburgundy]

I decided to check on the stats for the Nordic countries, in cases, deaths, and tests per million people.

• Iceland: 5,061 23 109,558
• Denmark: 1,153 53 13,417
• Norway: 1,254 28 24,020
• Sweden: 1,181 119 7,387
• Finland: 584 13 8,813

So it helps to do a lot of testing and to get into action quickly.

I agree that testing is important, but I'm not sure that the clearest conclusion from those specific data. Sweden and Finland are both doing much less testing, yet Sweden has more than double the deaths per capita of other Nordic countries while Finland has the fewest. That's probably b/c Sweden is the only country among them not engaging in any social distancing. All their bars, cafes, and restaurants are open and people are socializing largely like normal. IOW, the lesson is that social distancing greatly lowers the death rate. Note that Sweden's death's per capita is also higher than the US. And while Sweden's death per capita is 8th among developed countries, it is #1 if you divide by population density. The implication is the most deaths in Sweden would have been avoided with social distancing. They are realizing this now and considering changing their policy.

Similar less for the US, which is 11th in the developed world in deaths per capita but has a lower pop density than all the countries ahead of it other than Sweden.

 

[ronburgundy]

Now we're pushing 30,000 dead, and virtually guaranteed AT LEAST twice that by the time the virus runs its course, even under total shutdown conditions.
.

That's being too generous. The US deaths will likely be close to 3 times today's level by the first week in May, and likely around 5 times (150k dead) by the end of this wave. 18k deaths in the past week, which is double the prior week. The exact day people die is arbitrary, so that 6k on Tuesday is a blip in terms of single day deaths but still counts for the week's deaths and the increasing trend. We're on track to see close to see 25k deaths next week and more the week after. And even if the increase per week stops around then, the still means around 15-25K per week average for May, putting us in the 160k ball park by June 1.

And that presumes a total lockdown for at least 2 more weeks, which is unlikely given that many Republican controlled states aren't even on a total lockdown now. That includes not only the 7 Republicans states with no stay at home orders at all, but also the majority of Republican states that are not taking their own orders seriously, doing no enforcement, and giving exceptions to Churches, especially with their high % of Trump supporters deliberately and openly disobeying those orders.

The smart money is taking the over on 150,000 US dead by mid Summer, and if Trump or GOP governors lift the lockdown within the next 2 weeks, take the over on 250k.

 

[Elixir]

04-15 revised

Yesterday's numbers were revised after I posted. But hey, what's a few hundred more dead in the scope of things. I mean, compared to the e-fucking-conomy, right?

 

[marc]

Still getting a lot of new cases/deaths in places like NY where they are taking things seriously.

In the states with no stay-at-home orders at all they have advantage of much lower population density. But will that be enough to protect them from a big spike down the line, or will the mega-churches be the epicenters of new hot zones? In about a week we could be seeing the results of those that thought Easter mass was more important than protecting their health.

 

[Half-Life]

Pretty much the analogy. I wasn't being serious. I thought the sarcasm was obvious.

That there dam has kept the water back for 50 years. Don't need the dam to do it anymore.

I rather like this analogy:

View attachment 27101

Did you just admit that walls work?

If there were Democrats back then, the analogy would look more like this:

Republican: We need the wall up to stop the Mongols!"
Democrat: Nonsense. I'm sure they are not ALL bad. We don't need a wall.
Republican: But, it seems pretty obvious they want to attack our way of life.
Democrat: Nonsense! They are just people like you and me. Stop being so scared and xenophobic.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Did you just admit that walls work?

I do recall thst YOU insisted the Great Wall of China was protecting China right now.

Funny, though, you never identified the country it's currently protecting China from....
And never, ever wanted to discuss the Wall's ultimate success rate against The Horde...

We've always said walls have their uses, just not to solve the problem s Trump claimed his would.

 

[Half-Life]

Did you just admit that walls work?

I do recall thst YOU insisted the Great Wall of China was protecting China right now.

Funny, though, you never identified the country it's currently protecting China from....
And never, ever wanted to discuss the Wall's ultimate success rate against The Horde...

We've always said walls have their uses, just not to solve the problem s Trump claimed his would.

Keith,

your argument boils down to, "I shouldn't have a front door on my house because if someone wants to break in, they can just knock the door down. So, doors are useless."

or "I shouldn't roll up my car windows when I park somewhere because if someone wants to break into my car, they will just break the window anyway. So, windows are useless."

 

[Keith&Co.]

Did you just admit that walls work?

I do recall thst YOU insisted the Great Wall of China was protecting China right now.

Funny, though, you never identified the country it's currently protecting China from....
And never, ever wanted to discuss the Wall's ultimate success rate against The Horde...

We've always said walls have their uses, just not to solve the problem s Trump claimed his would.

Keith,

your argument boils down to, "I shouldn't have a front door on my house because if someone wants to break in, they can just knock the door down. So, doors are useless."

no, it doesn't. I specifically said thst walls are not useless.
Scroll back, see for yourself.

But i will say that while prison walks have some uses, spending an additional billion dollars on any prison wall will not work to keep out drugs and crime.

or "I shouldn't roll up my car windows when I park somewhere because if someone wants to break into my car, they will just break the window anyway. So, windows are useless."

again, your reading comprehensionskills rivsl those of Trump's Toadstool Dick.

And, STILL waiting to hear who China is protected from by the Great Wall....

 

[Half-Life]

Keith,

your argument boils down to, "I shouldn't have a front door on my house because if someone wants to break in, they can just knock the door down. So, doors are useless."

no, it doesn't. I specifically said thst walls are not useless.
Scroll back, see for yourself.

But i will say that while prison walks have some uses, spending an additional billion dollars on any prison wall will not work to keep out drugs and crime.

or "I shouldn't roll up my car windows when I park somewhere because if someone wants to break into my car, they will just break the window anyway. So, windows are useless."

again, your reading comprehensionskills rivsl those of Trump's Toadstool Dick.

And, STILL waiting to hear who China is protected from by the Great Wall....

China is protected from whoever wants to attack them, Keith. Why did they waste time building it in the first place if it's so useless? U realize they used to constantly be attacked by the Mongolians, right? If you were around back then during construction, you wold've said, "This wall is a waste of time. The MOngolians will attack us anyway!"

 

[Keith&Co.]

China is protected from whoever wants to attack them, Keith.

i asked for a nation, Halfie.
YOUR claim is that it protects China right now.

From whom?

Why did they waste time building it in the first place if it's so useless?

Such an attention span you have.
Useless is YOUR word, not mine.

Why did the South fire on Fort Sumpter if they were going to lose the wsr?

U realize they used to constantly be attacked by the Mongolians, right?

yes, i do.

If you were around back then during construction, you wold've said, "This wall is a waste of time. The MOngolians will attack us anyway!"

no. No, i would not gave said that.

I also would not have said that the wall is strategically significant right now, like you did.
Because i do not wish to look that fucking stupid.

 

[Elixir]

Meanwhile back in trumpistan, thirty thousand new cases a day portend a looooong continuance of the two thousand plus deaths a day "plateau" ... But at least we have the benefit of Trump's oracle, The Laughing Boy:

03-16-2020, 05:37 PM

... by April we will be laughing going,
"Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus
because the media started fear mongering?"

3-25-2020

This quarantine will work. I guarantee it. April 12 we will be up and running.
The cases are going to start declining in the U.S. starting around the next few days.
By April 1, we will see a steady downstream and be on our way out.

In all fairness though, he didn't specify the YEAR!