Emily Lake
Might be a replicant
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2014
- Messages
- 6,222
- Location
- It's a desert out there
- Gender
- Agenderist
- Basic Beliefs
- Atheist
Personally, I might make that argument. I don't think it's woo, for the simple reason that no one that I have ever met or read can adequately explain how it could be otherwise. As such, it seems to me the woo might be the saying the situation is 'somehow, magically' otherwise.
That does not mean that there isn't agency and choice-making, obviously. But in the final analysis it's all determined and/or random. Or at least, it would seem to have to be, there never having been a good alternative process set out.
To me, the choices and the agency are sophisticated, but not actually, ultimately free, because they can't escape causality, whether determined or random, or be uncaused causes. There is no way for them to do that, it seems. Unless you can describe it, in which case I think you will be the first person ever to do so convincingly.
Ultimately, events are driven by prior causality. That would appear, from everything that we currently understand, to include everything in the universe. It would be nice to think of ourselves as an exception, but it seems like special pleading, likening ourselves to the god we imagine, or the other way around.
Well, no, those aren't the only two options. The choices being made are neither determined nor random - they're stochastic. And a stochastic decision isn't a random decision.
Take for example, a simple experiment involving dice. Let's start with a random scenario, in which you roll one die fifty times. Let's say that you get to choose a number, and if that number comes up most often in the fifty rolls of one die, you get $50. Which number should you choose? It doesn't matter. The roll of the die is random, and which number comes up most frequently is going to be a uniform distribution, so each number is equally likely to come up. So you could select a number at random, and your odds of winning with a randomly chosen number is the same as it would be for any other number on the die.
Now lets add a second die. Now you're rolling two die fifty times. Instead of just numbers 1 through 6, you're now looking at the sum of the faces of the two die - a number between 2 and 12. What number should you choose? Does a random selection of a number make sense in this situation?
Now let's consider a situation where you're rolling five dice. The outcome of any specific roll of any specific die is random. But the likelihood of the sum of those dice isn't random. The pattern of outcomes will be a normal distribution, and the likelihood of getting a result of 30 or 5 is only 0.013%. The likelihood of getting a 17 or 18 is over 10%. Making a decision about which number you should guess is stochastic - it's based on probabilities and a distribution of possible outcomes. But the decision itself shouldn't be random if you'd like to win
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Let's add a slightly more applicable scenario here. Let's say you're trying to decide whether you should buy a blue pencil or a red pencil for 10 of your friends. The pencils come in batches of 10, and you can only select one color. You'd like to select the color that will satisfy the largest number of people.
Here are your friends' views on color:
Alice - Likes Red, Dislikes Blue
Bob - Dislikes Red, Likes Blue
Carl - Likes Red, Likes Blue
Diane - Likes Red, Dislikes Blue
Eric - Likes Red, Likes Blue
Frank - Likes Red, Likes Blue
Georgia - Likes Red, Likes Blue
Hannah - Dislikes Red, Likes Blue
Iris - Likes Red, Likes Blue
John - Dislikes Red, Dislikes Blue
If you were to go through this list exhaustively, you would find that the number of people who like red is equal to the number of people who like blue, so it won't make any difference which color you select - your friends would be equally satisfied either way.
But what if you didn't go through the entire list exhaustively? What if you just started, and went until you hit more than five people who liked a color? That would put you in a position where the majority of your friends would be satisfied, which is probably sufficient. It's a very reasonable approach. Take a look at the list. If you started at the top of the list, you'd call a winner at Georgia, with a color of red - at that point you've got 6 for red and 5 for blue. But what if you started at the bottom instead? If you started at the bottom, you'd call a winner at Diane and you'd select Blue as the color of choice.
In this sort of a scenario, sampling until sufficiency is fulfilled, the order in which the elements are sampled can lead to a different outcome. The criteria used for decision making are not at all random - they're clearly defined and logical. But the outcome is certainly not determined either.