Introduction
I went ahead and made a program to run the
Hungtinton-Hill method of apportionment. This is the standard that Congress uses and is described in a previous post. The numbers I got back reproduce the delegate allocations that are present in Congress which gives confidence in the programming. This method I call
Original Huntington-Hill.
I also ran 3 other methods.
Original Intuitive simply takes the divisor of the census population divided by 435. This is about 760367. I do not know why there are other numbers out there, but this one is correct and it subtracts the DC population as I had attempted to do before but thought it was weird because it did not reproduce other numbers I was seeing at the time. This one, 760367, happens to also be
documented which I found and confirms it is the right one. So in this method, if the decimal part of the state's number after dividing by the divisor is .5 or higher, it is rounded up. Originally Congress was also looking for the highest decimal remainders when something went wrong, like not enough delegates were assigned or too many in order to prioritize the last few delegate assignments. I did not bother to implement that.
Next, I took the percentages of just the so-called statistically significant undercounts and overcounts from the report and used those to create an Adjusted Population for those few states. This is also summed up. Strangely, it is quite a bit more than the original population even though the documentation provided by the Census Bureau says they are similar. Therefore, I do not trust their numbers. In any case, I copied the Original Populations of states into this column for all states that had no significant difference. Their new sum, 331508865, was used to create a new divisor (by dividing by 435).
Computing the adjusted populations and summing, and dividing, allowed for two more methods.
Adjusted Huntington-Hill is running the standard Congressional method of apportionment but on the Adjusted Populations. Then, Adjusted Intuitive takes the Adjusted Populations and divides them by the new divisor. If the decimal part is above .5, it rounds up. As before, there is nothing additional.
Any method that is discrepant in the resulting delegate count appears in bold font for the entire row where it is. This way we can look manually at discrepancies and decide what happened. Possibly what ought to be and count up legitimate results.
Results
Original Population | 330759736 |
Adjusted Population | 331508865 |
Original divisor | 760367.209195402 |
Adjusted divisor | 762089.344827586 |
State | Original
Population | Adjusted
Population | Original
Huntington-Hill | Original
Intuitive | Adjusted
Huntington Hill | Adjusted
Intuitive |
---|
California | 39538223 | 39538223 | 52 | 52 (51.998853) | 52 | 52 (51.881349) |
Texas | 29145505 | 29716053 | 38 | 38 (38.330828) | 39 | 39 (38.992873) |
Florida | 21538187 | 22314740 | 28 | 28 (28.326033) | 29 | 29 (29.281002) |
New York | 20201249 | 19529436 | 26 | 27 (26.567754) | 26 | 26 (25.626176) |
Pennsylvania | 13002700 | 13002700 | 17 | 17 (17.100553) | 17 | 17 (17.061910) |
Illinois | 12812508 | 13069987 | 17 | 17 (16.850422) | 17 | 17 (17.150203) |
Ohio | 11799448 | 11626217 | 15 | 16 (15.518092) | 15 | 15 (15.255714) |
Georgia | 10711908 | 10711908 | 14 | 14 (14.087809) | 14 | 14 (14.055974) |
North Carolina | 10439388 | 10439388 | 14 | 14 (13.729403) | 14 | 14 (13.698378) |
Michigan | 10077331 | 10077331 | 13 | 13 (13.253242) | 13 | 13 (13.223293) |
New Jersey | 9288994 | 9288994 | 12 | 12 (12.216458) | 12 | 12 (12.188852) |
Virginia | 8631393 | 8631393 | 11 | 11 (11.351611) | 11 | 11 (11.325959) |
Washington | 7705281 | 7705281 | 10 | 10 (10.133631) | 10 | 10 (10.110732) |
Arizona | 7151502 | 7151502 | 9 | 9 (9.405327) | 9 | 9 (9.384073) |
Tennessee | 6910840 | 7257761 | 9 | 9 (9.088819) | 9 | 10 (9.523504) |
Massachusetts | 7029917 | 6875897 | 9 | 9 (9.245424) | 9 | 9 (9.022429) |
Indiana | 6785528 | 6785528 | 9 | 9 (8.924014) | 9 | 9 (8.903848) |
Missouri | 6154913 | 6154913 | 8 | 8 (8.094659) | 8 | 8 (8.076367) |
Maryland | 6177224 | 6177224 | 8 | 8 (8.124001) | 8 | 8 (8.105643) |
Wisconsin | 5893718 | 5893718 | 8 | 8 (7.751147) | 8 | 8 (7.733631) |
Colorado | 5773714 | 5773714 | 8 | 8 (7.593323) | 8 | 8 (7.576164) |
Minnesota | 5706494 | 5495468 | 8 | 8 (7.504919) | 7 | 7 (7.211055) |
South Carolina | 5118425 | 5118425 | 7 | 7 (6.731517) | 7 | 7 (6.716306) |
Alabama | 5024279 | 5024279 | 7 | 7 (6.607701) | 7 | 7 (6.592769) |
Louisiana | 4657757 | 4657757 | 6 | 6 (6.125668) | 6 | 6 (6.111825) |
Kentucky | 4505836 | 4505836 | 6 | 6 (5.925868) | 6 | 6 (5.912477) |
Oregon | 4237256 | 4237256 | 6 | 6 (5.572644) | 6 | 6 (5.560051) |
Oklahoma | 3959353 | 3959353 | 5 | 5 (5.207159) | 5 | 5 (5.195392) |
Connecticut | 3605944 | 3605944 | 5 | 5 (4.742372) | 5 | 5 (4.731655) |
Utah | 3271616 | 3189020 | 4 | 4 (4.302679) | 4 | 4 (4.184575) |
Iowa | 3190369 | 3190369 | 4 | 4 (4.195827) | 4 | 4 (4.186345) |
Nevada | 3104614 | 3104614 | 4 | 4 (4.083046) | 4 | 4 (4.073819) |
Arkansas | 3011524 | 3171361 | 4 | 4 (3.960618) | 4 | 4 (4.161403) |
Kansas | 2937880 | 2937880 | 4 | 4 (3.863765) | 4 | 4 (3.855034) |
Mississippi | 2961279 | 3088204 | 4 | 4 (3.894538) | 4 | 4 (4.052286) |
New Mexico | 2117522 | 2117522 | 3 | 3 (2.784868) | 3 | 3 (2.778574) |
Nebraska | 1961504 | 1961504 | 3 | 3 (2.579680) | 3 | 3 (2.573850) |
Idaho | 1839106 | 1839106 | 2 | 2 (2.418708) | 2 | 2 (2.413242) |
West Virginia | 1793716 | 1793716 | 2 | 2 (2.359013) | 2 | 2 (2.353682) |
Hawaii | 1455271 | 1362741 | 2 | 2 (1.913906) | 2 | 2 (1.788164) |
New Hampshire | 1377529 | 1377529 | 2 | 2 (1.811663) | 2 | 2 (1.807569) |
Maine | 1362359 | 1362359 | 2 | 2 (1.791712) | 2 | 2 (1.787663) |
Montana | 1084225 | 1084225 | 2 | 1 (1.425923) | 2 | 1 (1.422701) |
Rhode Island | 1097379 | 1044625 | 2 | 1 (1.443222) | 1 | 1 (1.370738) |
Delaware | 989948 | 938784 | 1 | 1 (1.301934) | 1 | 1 (1.231856) |
South Dakota | 886667 | 886667 | 1 | 1 (1.166104) | 1 | 1 (1.163469) |
North Dakota | 779094 | 779094 | 1 | 1 (1.024629) | 1 | 1 (1.022313) |
Alaska | 733391 | 733391 | 1 | 1 (0.964522) | 1 | 1 (0.962343) |
Vermont | 643077 | 643077 | 1 | 1 (0.845745) | 1 | 1 (0.843834) |
Wyoming | 576851 | 576851 | 1 | 1 (0.758648) | 1 | 1 (0.756934) |
Discussion
There are 8 rows bolded which indicates across 4 methods there are a maximum 8 discrepancies in comparing any two. However, comparing any of one method against the original may produce much less than 8 differences such as 3 or 4. Here I do 3 comparisons of methods.
1. Original Huntington-Hill (OHH) vs Original Intuitive (OI)
If you focus on the bolded rows but then scan downward along these two columns, you will find 4 discrepancies:
State | OHH | OI |
---|
New York | 26 | 27 (26.567754) |
Ohio | 15 | 16 (15.518092) |
Montana | 2 | 1 (1.425923) |
Rhode Island | 2 | 1 (1.443222) |
The standard method deducts 1 from both New York and Ohio as compared to the intuitive method. Meanwhile, the standard method adds one to both Montana and Rhode Island as compared to the intuitive method. You may observe that the decimal part of the delegate is in the .4 range for both Montana and Rhode Island, but the decimal part for both New York and Ohio is in the .5 range. This may be surprising, but as noted earlier the standard method we use is
biased in favor of smaller states.
The purpose of this comparison was to illustrate how our current process works in contrast to intuition.
2. Original Huntington-Hill (OHH) vs Adjusted Huntington-Hill (AHH)
If you focus on the bolded rows but then scan downward along these two columns, you will find 4 discrepancies:
State | OHH | AHH |
---|
Texas | 38 | 39 |
Florida | 28 | 29 |
Minnesota | 8 | 7 |
Rhode Island | 2 | 1 |
In the adjusted version, Florida gains 1, and Texas gains 1. Minnesota and Rhode Island both lose 1.
The purpose of this comparison is to illustrate how the actual process would work if the adjusted numbers were actually used in reality.
3. Original Intuitive (OI) vs Adjusted Intuitive (AI)
If you focus on the bolded rows but then scan downward along these two columns, you will find 6 discrepancies:
State | OI | AI |
---|
Texas | 38 | 39 |
Florida | 28 | 29 |
New York | 27 | 26 |
Ohio | 16 | 15 |
Tennessee | 9 | 10 |
Minnesota | 8 | 7 |
This comparison is most interesting because the lack of knowledge about the exact process of apportionment might lead many people to make this comparison. Even in discussions here, we observe people using the divisor as I also initially thought to do. So I believe we can hypothesize that this is how the conspiracy theory started. We can also observe that there are a total of 6 discrepancies which is a number that is in common with the conspiracy theory that there were an extra 6 Democrats and missing 6 Republicans.
What we do observe here is 3 states that are typically red and 3 that may be blue (is Ohio purple?) being impacted, with red states negatively and "blue" states positively. This does not necessarily translate to 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats.
And as noted, the Post-Enumeration Survey results themselves are of questionable quality. Whether they are better than the census is an open question.
Conclusion
None of the methods show an extra 6 Democrats and missing 6 Republicans.
A comparison of intuitive methods (that are not used in the process) shows 3 typically red state gains, 1 purple/blue state gain, and 2 blue state gains. This comparison may have snowballed into a more dramatic version magnifying the difference and assuming partisan results based on "blue" or "red" states. In reality, following apportionment, there is redistricting and voting and those results may differ from predictions based on state gains or losses.
In any case, the intuitive method is not used, but instead the Huntington-Hill method of apportionment. In that scenario, which is the actual Congressional process, there are fewer discrepancies with 2 red-state gains and 2 blue-state losses.
Those also do not necessarily translate to two Republicans and two Democrats not merely because of the process following apportionment, but also because the survey results that the adjustments are based on are not necessarily improvements to the census.