blastula
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Trump's positive Covid test was a surprise that many saw coming | US news | The Guardian - "The president has been cavalier throughout the coronavirus pandemic. Now, a month before the election, this changes everything"
It is likely to go down as the biggest “October surprise” in the history of US presidential elections. Yet anyone who was paying attention could have seen it coming.
Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus after claiming “it will disappear”, telling the journalist Bob Woodward he was downplaying it deliberately, failing to develop a national testing strategy, refusing to wear a face mask for months, floating the idea of injecting patients with bleach, insisting to one of his many crowded campaign rallies that “it affects virtually nobody” and, at Tuesday’s debate, mocking his rival, Joe Biden: “He could be speaking 200 feet away and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”
It suggested a sense of invincibility even as more than 200,000 Americans died. But now the chickens have come home to roost, just as they did for the similarly cavalier British prime minister, Boris Johnson, and the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro.
Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter: "Breaking—WH advisor Larry Kudlow says Trump has a "very **moderate** case" of coronavirus.
Not “mild” anymore. We are now on the second rung of thus #COVID19 disease course. Trump is also high risk being elderly, overweight/obese, and male. https://t.co/8dzzGHnYlf" / Twitter
"Moderate"? Like Yuri Andropov's "bad cold"?
Typical Progress of Covid-19 – Katri Manninen
I'll ASCIIfy the chart.
Infection.
Incubation period 5d (2d - 12d)
Can infect others 1d - 3d before symptoms
No symptoms: 50%
Infection stops (prob. won't infect others) 14+d after infection
Symptoms: 50%
Mild/moderate symptoms: 7d
Symptoms - 80%
Milder symptoms: 3d - 7d
Recovery 10d - 14d after first symptoms
Symptoms - 20% (10%)
Hospital 8d - 10d after first symptoms
Hospital - 85%
Recovery 7d - 14+d after hospitalization
Hospital - 15% (1.5%)
Critical
Needs ICU (even if doesn't get it)
Critical - 35 - 50%
Release from ICU 7d - 14+d after going to ICU
Recovery 7d - 14+d after getting out of ICU
Critical - 50 - 65% (0.75% - 1%)
Death 5d - 30+d after hospitalization
Yeah, if it goes bad, it typically starts that phase about a week after symptoms begin, and it will be a sudden shift in severity.
Trump is getting good care and very early on, as opposed to most people, so he does have a better shot at beating it compared to the typical patient. The antibodies he's been given have shown positive results.