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Trump Will Likely Win

I hate to be negative, but the polls just aren't showing enough for Harris to pull this out - in the end, I see a few key states breaking Trump's way and he ekes it out. She has to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania and I am very, very skeptical.

I think that Harris just has too many negatives for people to support her. According to some polls, something like 1/4 of African-American males will not vote for her and many will support Trump. There's just a negative that she's a woman.

Second, polls tend to overestimate support for African-Americans and women in races. There is a tendency not to admit that you're not going to vote for an African American or a woman because you fear being labelled. There's just too much residual racism and sexism in the country for her to get elected. In the end, I see a lot of people holding their nose and voting for Trump. Furthermore, Trump has historically underperformed in polls and over performed in the election results. It happened undeniably in 2016, but in 2020 as well - although to a lesser extent.

Third, it's all about the base. While there are a lot of people enthusiastic for her election, I just don't know if it's enough - especially if African-American males don't really support her as strong as they need to. It will be soooo close in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Fourth, there's also been a small, but possibly important, shift in the Electoral College towards Republicans. Traditionally strong Republican strongholds have picked up a net of 3 electoral votes, including 2 in Texas and 1 each in Montana, Florida and North Carolina (they lost two elsewhere). Traditionally Democratic states have lost 1. Swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one. This handicaps Harris slightly - and the slightest handicap is all it takes.

Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which I remain skeptical Harris can carry. But possibly. Polling right now shows her ahead a bit in Michigan, but Pennsylvania flips around too much to determine. So given that polls are likely under counting Trump again, I don't see her winning both which is required for her to get over 270. Here's my EV prediction (don't pay attention to the shade of the color):

View attachment 47803
Last poll in Maine had Harris up +5 in ME-2. That one race really says a lot for me. Awaiting an update.

Oh... there is a new poll and Trump is up +7. ??? That is an insane swing. They also have Maine at +9 from +17. 2020 Maine was +9, so maybe the UNH poll in August was a dud.
Polling data is insane. There's no way to really do good scientific polling anymore. Cell phones have totally changed the nature. Maybe they should go out there and randomly talk to people directly. But you'd have to have a wide spread geographic reach in any serious swing state to ensure a relatively accurate count. But I don't trust these online polls. They just indicate who wants to participate and sometimes those are the fringes.

This is what Trafalgar Polling says is their methodology:

The Trafalgar Group delivers our polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:

  • Live callers
  • Integrated voice response
  • Text messages
  • Emails
  • Digital dial back interface
  • Online targeted opt-in digital survey platforms
We utilize short questionnaires of nine questions or less based on our perceptions about attenuated attention spans and the need to “accommodate modern busy lifestyles.” Our polls last one to three minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls.

We have also pioneered methods to accommodate the “Social Desirability Bias.” This allows us to obtain a poll participant’s true feelings in situations where we believe some individuals are not likely to reveal their actual preferences.

Our approach to polling is markedly different from most of the industry. We believe the old system of delivering 20 or more questions via live phone interviews doesn’t fit the modern world. This old system skews toward people who have strong ideology and/or opinions and even worse, those who are bored and looking for someone to talk to. It also fails to address the growing number of people who refuse to share their honest opinion and the new trend of people who refuse to participate or intentionally give false answers because they question who is asking and why.

But I am skeptical of that methodology too. How are they doing live calls? To cell phones? Too easy for people to ignore. Texts and emails? Who's going to respond? Then online targeted opt in digital surveys. Not sure how that is done precisely. Who are they likely to capture?

So polls have proven poor predictors in the last two cycles. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump performed better than the polls suggested. Hillary was the clear polling leader in 2016 - or so they told us. While Biden lead in 2020, his margin of victory was closer than what they were telling us in the polls.

In the end, i just don't see the enthusiasm for Harris enough to push her through in places like rural Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Another factor is how really divided the left is - especially over Israel and Palestine. I said on these boards that the purpose of this attack was to divide the American public - especially the left in swing states like Michigan with large minorities of Muslims. It's working. Many people in America support the rights of Palestinians and they are generally liberal democrats who are pissed at Biden/Harris for their support of Israel. This could have a HUGE impact in Michigan. That's why I think Trump will likely win.

Another factor, mentioned above is the African-American vote. A poll today indicates that of Black voters under 50, 25% will vote for Trump. for Black men, the number is 28%. This is absurd. And again, in key states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan it could hurt her. These races are all so fucking close. Every single vote for Harris is essential and any time any black person votes for Trump it is a serious, serious loss.

So with tepid support from African Americans and the pro Palestinian block likely either not voting, or voting for someone else, I see Harris having serious struggles.
 
Here's another interesting article:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/harris-policy-specifics-analysis/index.html

Voters don't think Harris gives enough specifics for her plans. WTF? Seriously? Compared to Mr. "I have a concept of a plan."? Fuck me.

But this just illustrates the double standard voters give to women than they do for men. All Trump has to do is say, I'm going to make America Great Again and they're ruining America, and he gets a free pass. But apparently, Harris is too vague.

Of course it's all bullshit. They said the same thing about HRC, and it was bullshit in 2016. It just goes to show you that she is, in reality, likely in serious trouble in the end.
 
I'm actually getting fairly confident of a win by Harris. She inspired a lot of younger people to register to vote, then Taylor Swift came on the scene and inspired hundreds of thousands of younger people (who don't answer to phone polls, BTW) to register to vote. Those people will also get their friends to do the same.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
 
But apparently, Harris is too vague.
It's true. She needs to be much more like Trump. The ability to lie with such facility is truly difficult to counter.
Harris is bound by the truth to address inflation (for instance) by describing the forces causing prices to rise, and cataloging the measures she intends to take to reduce the effects of those forces in great detail. Which crosses the eyes of the unwashed.
Trump, OTOH, needs only mouth "I will do away with inflation" and his maroons sigh in relief - they suddenly consider the problem solved.
Of course it's all bullshit.
It is precision-targeted deadly bullshit. I agree with you that it is most likely that Trump will win.
2nd most likely, he loses narrowly and his enablers in Congress manage to get the "question" sent to the States, and Trump wins.
Third most likely, Harris wins, all the bullshit that Congressional Fascists try, gets put down - but Trump's brownshirts disrupt the government so badly that Congress submits - and Trump wins.
Fourth most likely, Harris wins and ALL the ensuing bullshit fails, including Republican Congressional machinations AND Cheato's "civil war", and Harris wins.
Right now Harris actually being inaugurated as President seems like a distant possibility, even though she will win the popular vote by millions - probably 10 million or more.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
Trump's mishandling of Covid was still a fresh memory, as was all the stupid shit he did as President. Since then he has been given voice to repeat "Biden(HARRIS) was the worst administration ever, and I gave you all the best economy the world has ever seen!!!" so many times that it has become fact in the minds of the Foxwashed, NewsMaxers, OAN watchers and lots of people under threat by those gun-totin' jackasses.
The only consolation IMO is that it will take a year or more (I hope) for the autocracy movement to give Trump the ability to ignore the federal government (Consititution), SCOTUS, and State legislatures, and run roughshod over what's left of America.

Of course I'll be watching in dumbfounded amazement as all this STOOPID unfolds, but I really don't know what I can do to protect myself and those I love from it. I know Trump will die some time soon, and only hope to outlive both the bloated fucktard and his cult of followers.
 
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I'm actually getting fairly confident of a win by Harris. She inspired a lot of younger people to register to vote, then Taylor Swift came on the scene and inspired hundreds of thousands of younger people (who don't answer to phone polls, BTW) to register to vote. Those people will also get their friends to do the same.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
I hope you're right. I'm just skeptical at this point.

There's also the possibility of the October Surprise. Expect Trump along with his allies Putin, Xi and Jong-Un, to pull some shit in about two weeks in an attempt to embarrass the democratic party and the administration. Not sure exactly what it will be. Maybe NK will attack SK? That might be too risky. Maybe just blow up another nuke? That may not be enough.

Dems need their own October Surprise. A mideast peace deal? That would be awesome. Might go along way towards assuaging Muslims in Michigan. A big Ukraine victory? Difficult to achieve perhaps. But possible. It could make Trump look bad.

The other thing she needs to do is go negative - or at least someone else needs to go really, really negative on her behalf. I saw one of her "negative" ads last night, and it was all about abortion rights and claiming he would outlaw abortion and even contraceptive use. That's all well and good. But I want them to attack his mental health far more aggressively. Challenge his blatant unfitness. Point out that he called for ending the Constitution for chrissakes!!! Show his stupid post from about 2 years ago where he actually said that shit. Get an ad that gives us a bunch of quotes from his former subordinates about what a moron he is. That would really be great.

Here's a list I've compiled:

1. His vice president, Mike Pence: “The American people deserve to know that President Trump asked me to put him over my oath to the Constitution. … Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
2. His second attorney general, Bill Barr: “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”
3. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”
4. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper: “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
5. His chairman of the joint chiefs, retired Gen. Mark Milley, seemed to invoke Trump: “We don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution and we take an oath to the idea that is America – and we’re willing to die to protect it.”
6. His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson: “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.” Also called him a moron.
7. His first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley: “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day.”
8. His presidential transition vice-chairman, Chris Christie: “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”
9. His second national security adviser, HR McMaster: “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”
10. His third national security adviser, John Bolton: “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”
11. His second chief of staff, John Kelly: “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”
12. His former acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, who resigned as US special envoy to Ireland after January 6, 2021: “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”
13. One of his many former communications directors, Anthony Scaramucci: “He is the domestic terrorist of the 21st century.” Also called him demented.
14. Another former communications director, Stephanie Grisham: “I am terrified of him running in 2024.”
15. His secretary of education, Betsy DeVos, who resigned after January 6: “When I saw what was happening on January 6 and didn’t see the president step in and do what he could have done to turn it back or slow it down or really address the situation, it was just obvious to me that I couldn’t continue.”
16. His secretary of transportation, Elaine Chao, who resigned after January 6: “At a particular point the events were such that it was impossible for me to continue, given my personal values and my philosophy.”
17. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”
18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”
19. His former personal lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen: “Donald’s an idiot.”
20. His White House lawyer, Ty Cobb: “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”
21. A former director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin, who is now a CNN political commentator: “We can stand by the policies, but at this point we cannot stand by the man.”
22. A top aide in charge of his outreach to African Americans, Omarosa Manigault Newman: “Donald Trump, who would attack civil rights icons and professional athletes, who would go after grieving black widows, who would say there were good people on both sides, who endorsed an accused child molester; Donald Trump, and his decisions and his behavior, was harming the country. I could no longer be a part
of this madness.”
23. A former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, who resigned after January 6: “I thought that he did do a lot of good during his four years. I think that his actions on January 6 and the lead-up to it, the way that he’s acted in the aftermath, and his continuation of pushing this lie that the election is stolen has made him wholly unfit to hold office every again.”
24. His final chief of staff’s aide, Cassidy Hutchinson: “I think that Donald Trump is the most grave threat we will face to our democracy in our lifetime, and potentially in American history.”
25. William T. Kelley taught Marketing at Wharton School of Business and Finance, University of Pennsylvania: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.”
 
I'm actually getting fairly confident of a win by Harris. She inspired a lot of younger people to register to vote, then Taylor Swift came on the scene and inspired hundreds of thousands of younger people (who don't answer to phone polls, BTW) to register to vote. Those people will also get their friends to do the same.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
I hope you're right. I'm just skeptical at this point.

There's also the possibility of the October Surprise. Expect Trump along with his allies Putin, Xi and Jong-Un, to pull some shit in about two weeks in an attempt to embarrass the democratic party and the administration. Not sure exactly what it will be. Maybe NK will attack SK? That might be too risky. Maybe just blow up another nuke? That may not be enough.

Dems need their own October Surprise. A mideast peace deal? That would be awesome. Might go along way towards assuaging Muslims in Michigan. A big Ukraine victory? Difficult to achieve perhaps. But possible. It could make Trump look bad.

The other thing she needs to do is go negative - or at least someone else needs to go really, really negative on her behalf. I saw one of her "negative" ads last night, and it was all about abortion rights and claiming he would outlaw abortion and even contraceptive use. That's all well and good. But I want them to attack his mental health far more aggressively. Challenge his blatant unfitness. Point out that he called for ending the Constitution for chrissakes!!! Show his stupid post from about 2 years ago where he actually said that shit. Get an ad that gives us a bunch of quotes from his former subordinates about what a moron he is. That would really be great.

Here's a list I've compiled:

1. His vice president, Mike Pence: “The American people deserve to know that President Trump asked me to put him over my oath to the Constitution. … Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
2. His second attorney general, Bill Barr: “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”
3. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”
4. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper: “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
5. His chairman of the joint chiefs, retired Gen. Mark Milley, seemed to invoke Trump: “We don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution and we take an oath to the idea that is America – and we’re willing to die to protect it.”
6. His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson: “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.” Also called him a moron.
7. His first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley: “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day.”
8. His presidential transition vice-chairman, Chris Christie: “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”
9. His second national security adviser, HR McMaster: “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”
10. His third national security adviser, John Bolton: “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”
11. His second chief of staff, John Kelly: “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”
12. His former acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, who resigned as US special envoy to Ireland after January 6, 2021: “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”
13. One of his many former communications directors, Anthony Scaramucci: “He is the domestic terrorist of the 21st century.” Also called him demented.
14. Another former communications director, Stephanie Grisham: “I am terrified of him running in 2024.”
15. His secretary of education, Betsy DeVos, who resigned after January 6: “When I saw what was happening on January 6 and didn’t see the president step in and do what he could have done to turn it back or slow it down or really address the situation, it was just obvious to me that I couldn’t continue.”
16. His secretary of transportation, Elaine Chao, who resigned after January 6: “At a particular point the events were such that it was impossible for me to continue, given my personal values and my philosophy.”
17. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”
18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”
19. His former personal lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen: “Donald’s an idiot.”
20. His White House lawyer, Ty Cobb: “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”
21. A former director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin, who is now a CNN political commentator: “We can stand by the policies, but at this point we cannot stand by the man.”
22. A top aide in charge of his outreach to African Americans, Omarosa Manigault Newman: “Donald Trump, who would attack civil rights icons and professional athletes, who would go after grieving black widows, who would say there were good people on both sides, who endorsed an accused child molester; Donald Trump, and his decisions and his behavior, was harming the country. I could no longer be a part
of this madness.”
23. A former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, who resigned after January 6: “I thought that he did do a lot of good during his four years. I think that his actions on January 6 and the lead-up to it, the way that he’s acted in the aftermath, and his continuation of pushing this lie that the election is stolen has made him wholly unfit to hold office every again.”
24. His final chief of staff’s aide, Cassidy Hutchinson: “I think that Donald Trump is the most grave threat we will face to our democracy in our lifetime, and potentially in American history.”
25. William T. Kelley taught Marketing at Wharton School of Business and Finance, University of Pennsylvania: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.”
25 points? Who is going to pay attention to that? People already dedicated to voting for Harris, that's who.

Rumpsuckers only need ONE point: "I created the best economy the world has ever seen!"
The fact that it's utterly false, is of zero concern to anyone even entertaining the possibility of voting for the felonious traitor.
 
It's all going to be about voter turnout. In the recent past, younger people rarely voted, but this seems to be changing and a majority of younger voters support Harris. Harris is leading among women by a large margin, and Trump is leading among men, by a slightly lower margin. Who is more motivated to vote, gender wise? Minorities support Harris by a large margin, regardless if we are thinking of racial, ethnic minorities or LBGTQ folks. The biggest problem, I currently see, is the Republican Party's attempts to suppress the vote. I've never seen anything like what they are doing this time around, like allowing people to question other's right to vote, removing people from the rolls if they haven't voted in the past two elections, at least in Georgia, and things like that. I think the Republicans know that it's hard for them to win without cheating and suppressing the vote is a type of cheating imo.

All we can do is vote and encourage our friends and relatives, to vote Blue. All of mine will do that, but some need to be convinced but the members of the Trump cult are hopeless. Still there are some who hated both candidates. Maybe it would be best if they write in a name, instead of voting for Trump. I don't think the polls tell us much and most elections in the 21st Century have been very close.

Then again, if you have some Christian friends who support Trump, it might be worth trying to shame them by reading some of their good book to them. Trump doesn't support any of the better aspects of the Bible. He doesn't even know how to hold it upright or that 2 Corinthians isn't a thing. :giggle:
 
I'm actually getting fairly confident of a win by Harris. She inspired a lot of younger people to register to vote, then Taylor Swift came on the scene and inspired hundreds of thousands of younger people (who don't answer to phone polls, BTW) to register to vote. Those people will also get their friends to do the same.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
I hope you're right. I'm just skeptical at this point.

There's also the possibility of the October Surprise. Expect Trump along with his allies Putin, Xi and Jong-Un, to pull some shit in about two weeks in an attempt to embarrass the democratic party and the administration. Not sure exactly what it will be. Maybe NK will attack SK? That might be too risky. Maybe just blow up another nuke? That may not be enough.

Dems need their own October Surprise. A mideast peace deal? That would be awesome. Might go along way towards assuaging Muslims in Michigan. A big Ukraine victory? Difficult to achieve perhaps. But possible. It could make Trump look bad.

The other thing she needs to do is go negative - or at least someone else needs to go really, really negative on her behalf. I saw one of her "negative" ads last night, and it was all about abortion rights and claiming he would outlaw abortion and even contraceptive use. That's all well and good. But I want them to attack his mental health far more aggressively. Challenge his blatant unfitness. Point out that he called for ending the Constitution for chrissakes!!! Show his stupid post from about 2 years ago where he actually said that shit. Get an ad that gives us a bunch of quotes from his former subordinates about what a moron he is. That would really be great.

Here's a list I've compiled:

1. His vice president, Mike Pence: “The American people deserve to know that President Trump asked me to put him over my oath to the Constitution. … Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
2. His second attorney general, Bill Barr: “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”
3. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”
4. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper: “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
5. His chairman of the joint chiefs, retired Gen. Mark Milley, seemed to invoke Trump: “We don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution and we take an oath to the idea that is America – and we’re willing to die to protect it.”
6. His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson: “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.” Also called him a moron.
7. His first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley: “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day.”
8. His presidential transition vice-chairman, Chris Christie: “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”
9. His second national security adviser, HR McMaster: “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”
10. His third national security adviser, John Bolton: “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”
11. His second chief of staff, John Kelly: “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”
12. His former acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, who resigned as US special envoy to Ireland after January 6, 2021: “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”
13. One of his many former communications directors, Anthony Scaramucci: “He is the domestic terrorist of the 21st century.” Also called him demented.
14. Another former communications director, Stephanie Grisham: “I am terrified of him running in 2024.”
15. His secretary of education, Betsy DeVos, who resigned after January 6: “When I saw what was happening on January 6 and didn’t see the president step in and do what he could have done to turn it back or slow it down or really address the situation, it was just obvious to me that I couldn’t continue.”
16. His secretary of transportation, Elaine Chao, who resigned after January 6: “At a particular point the events were such that it was impossible for me to continue, given my personal values and my philosophy.”
17. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”
18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”
19. His former personal lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen: “Donald’s an idiot.”
20. His White House lawyer, Ty Cobb: “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”
21. A former director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin, who is now a CNN political commentator: “We can stand by the policies, but at this point we cannot stand by the man.”
22. A top aide in charge of his outreach to African Americans, Omarosa Manigault Newman: “Donald Trump, who would attack civil rights icons and professional athletes, who would go after grieving black widows, who would say there were good people on both sides, who endorsed an accused child molester; Donald Trump, and his decisions and his behavior, was harming the country. I could no longer be a part
of this madness.”
23. A former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, who resigned after January 6: “I thought that he did do a lot of good during his four years. I think that his actions on January 6 and the lead-up to it, the way that he’s acted in the aftermath, and his continuation of pushing this lie that the election is stolen has made him wholly unfit to hold office every again.”
24. His final chief of staff’s aide, Cassidy Hutchinson: “I think that Donald Trump is the most grave threat we will face to our democracy in our lifetime, and potentially in American history.”
25. William T. Kelley taught Marketing at Wharton School of Business and Finance, University of Pennsylvania: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.”

I'm actually getting fairly confident of a win by Harris. She inspired a lot of younger people to register to vote, then Taylor Swift came on the scene and inspired hundreds of thousands of younger people (who don't answer to phone polls, BTW) to register to vote. Those people will also get their friends to do the same.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
I hope you're right. I'm just skeptical at this point.

There's also the possibility of the October Surprise. Expect Trump along with his allies Putin, Xi and Jong-Un, to pull some shit in about two weeks in an attempt to embarrass the democratic party and the administration. Not sure exactly what it will be. Maybe NK will attack SK? That might be too risky. Maybe just blow up another nuke? That may not be enough.

Dems need their own October Surprise. A mideast peace deal? That would be awesome. Might go along way towards assuaging Muslims in Michigan. A big Ukraine victory? Difficult to achieve perhaps. But possible. It could make Trump look bad.

The other thing she needs to do is go negative - or at least someone else needs to go really, really negative on her behalf. I saw one of her "negative" ads last night, and it was all about abortion rights and claiming he would outlaw abortion and even contraceptive use. That's all well and good. But I want them to attack his mental health far more aggressively. Challenge his blatant unfitness. Point out that he called for ending the Constitution for chrissakes!!! Show his stupid post from about 2 years ago where he actually said that shit. Get an ad that gives us a bunch of quotes from his former subordinates about what a moron he is. That would really be great.

Here's a list I've compiled:

1. His vice president, Mike Pence: “The American people deserve to know that President Trump asked me to put him over my oath to the Constitution. … Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
2. His second attorney general, Bill Barr: “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”
3. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”
4. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper: “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
5. His chairman of the joint chiefs, retired Gen. Mark Milley, seemed to invoke Trump: “We don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution and we take an oath to the idea that is America – and we’re willing to die to protect it.”
6. His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson: “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.” Also called him a moron.
7. His first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley: “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day.”
8. His presidential transition vice-chairman, Chris Christie: “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”
9. His second national security adviser, HR McMaster: “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”
10. His third national security adviser, John Bolton: “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”
11. His second chief of staff, John Kelly: “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”
12. His former acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, who resigned as US special envoy to Ireland after January 6, 2021: “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”
13. One of his many former communications directors, Anthony Scaramucci: “He is the domestic terrorist of the 21st century.” Also called him demented.
14. Another former communications director, Stephanie Grisham: “I am terrified of him running in 2024.”
15. His secretary of education, Betsy DeVos, who resigned after January 6: “When I saw what was happening on January 6 and didn’t see the president step in and do what he could have done to turn it back or slow it down or really address the situation, it was just obvious to me that I couldn’t continue.”
16. His secretary of transportation, Elaine Chao, who resigned after January 6: “At a particular point the events were such that it was impossible for me to continue, given my personal values and my philosophy.”
17. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”
18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”
19. His former personal lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen: “Donald’s an idiot.”
20. His White House lawyer, Ty Cobb: “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”
21. A former director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin, who is now a CNN political commentator: “We can stand by the policies, but at this point we cannot stand by the man.”
22. A top aide in charge of his outreach to African Americans, Omarosa Manigault Newman: “Donald Trump, who would attack civil rights icons and professional athletes, who would go after grieving black widows, who would say there were good people on both sides, who endorsed an accused child molester; Donald Trump, and his decisions and his behavior, was harming the country. I could no longer be a part
of this madness.”
23. A former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, who resigned after January 6: “I thought that he did do a lot of good during his four years. I think that his actions on January 6 and the lead-up to it, the way that he’s acted in the aftermath, and his continuation of pushing this lie that the election is stolen has made him wholly unfit to hold office every again.”
24. His final chief of staff’s aide, Cassidy Hutchinson: “I think that Donald Trump is the most grave threat we will face to our democracy in our lifetime, and potentially in American history.”
25. William T. Kelley taught Marketing at Wharton School of Business and Finance, University of Pennsylvania: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.”
25 points? Who is going to pay attention to that? People already dedicated to voting for Harris, that's who.

Rumpsuckers only need ONE point: "I created the best economy the world has ever seen!"
The fact that it's utterly false, is of zero concern to anyone even entertaining the possibility of voting for the felonious traitor.
Well it can be shortened! Just Tillerson’s quote about him being a fucking moron would be a good start and the losers and suckers comment. I can’t believe the Dems aren’t using that over and over.
 
I'm actually getting fairly confident of a win by Harris. She inspired a lot of younger people to register to vote, then Taylor Swift came on the scene and inspired hundreds of thousands of younger people (who don't answer to phone polls, BTW) to register to vote. Those people will also get their friends to do the same.

Biden beat Trump. And I see far more excitement about Harris than I saw about Biden.
I hope you're right. I'm just skeptical at this point.

There's also the possibility of the October Surprise. Expect Trump along with his allies Putin, Xi and Jong-Un, to pull some shit in about two weeks in an attempt to embarrass the democratic party and the administration. Not sure exactly what it will be. Maybe NK will attack SK? That might be too risky. Maybe just blow up another nuke? That may not be enough.

Dems need their own October Surprise. A mideast peace deal? That would be awesome. Might go along way towards assuaging Muslims in Michigan. A big Ukraine victory? Difficult to achieve perhaps. But possible. It could make Trump look bad.

The other thing she needs to do is go negative - or at least someone else needs to go really, really negative on her behalf. I saw one of her "negative" ads last night, and it was all about abortion rights and claiming he would outlaw abortion and even contraceptive use. That's all well and good. But I want them to attack his mental health far more aggressively. Challenge his blatant unfitness. Point out that he called for ending the Constitution for chrissakes!!! Show his stupid post from about 2 years ago where he actually said that shit. Get an ad that gives us a bunch of quotes from his former subordinates about what a moron he is. That would really be great.

Here's a list I've compiled:

1. His vice president, Mike Pence: “The American people deserve to know that President Trump asked me to put him over my oath to the Constitution. … Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
2. His second attorney general, Bill Barr: “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”
3. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”
4. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper: “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
5. His chairman of the joint chiefs, retired Gen. Mark Milley, seemed to invoke Trump: “We don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution and we take an oath to the idea that is America – and we’re willing to die to protect it.”
6. His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson: “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.” Also called him a moron.
7. His first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley: “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day.”
8. His presidential transition vice-chairman, Chris Christie: “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”
9. His second national security adviser, HR McMaster: “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”
10. His third national security adviser, John Bolton: “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”
11. His second chief of staff, John Kelly: “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”
12. His former acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, who resigned as US special envoy to Ireland after January 6, 2021: “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”
13. One of his many former communications directors, Anthony Scaramucci: “He is the domestic terrorist of the 21st century.” Also called him demented.
14. Another former communications director, Stephanie Grisham: “I am terrified of him running in 2024.”
15. His secretary of education, Betsy DeVos, who resigned after January 6: “When I saw what was happening on January 6 and didn’t see the president step in and do what he could have done to turn it back or slow it down or really address the situation, it was just obvious to me that I couldn’t continue.”
16. His secretary of transportation, Elaine Chao, who resigned after January 6: “At a particular point the events were such that it was impossible for me to continue, given my personal values and my philosophy.”
17. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”
18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”
19. His former personal lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen: “Donald’s an idiot.”
20. His White House lawyer, Ty Cobb: “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”
21. A former director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin, who is now a CNN political commentator: “We can stand by the policies, but at this point we cannot stand by the man.”
22. A top aide in charge of his outreach to African Americans, Omarosa Manigault Newman: “Donald Trump, who would attack civil rights icons and professional athletes, who would go after grieving black widows, who would say there were good people on both sides, who endorsed an accused child molester; Donald Trump, and his decisions and his behavior, was harming the country. I could no longer be a part
of this madness.”
23. A former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, who resigned after January 6: “I thought that he did do a lot of good during his four years. I think that his actions on January 6 and the lead-up to it, the way that he’s acted in the aftermath, and his continuation of pushing this lie that the election is stolen has made him wholly unfit to hold office every again.”
24. His final chief of staff’s aide, Cassidy Hutchinson: “I think that Donald Trump is the most grave threat we will face to our democracy in our lifetime, and potentially in American history.”
25. William T. Kelley taught Marketing at Wharton School of Business and Finance, University of Pennsylvania: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.”

Holy cow. Thanks for your work regarding the above. I'm going to forward to people that I know. Honestly, I'm shocked that so many people love Trump. The above ought to be an embarrassment to any Trump supporter.
 
The above ought to be an embarrassment to any Trump supporter.
True. But Rumpers hold all that as a badge of honor, pwning the libs and getting them all riled up.
These people are NOT deep thinkers. See our own specimens.
 
The above ought to be an embarrassment to any Trump supporter.
True. But Rumpers hold all that as a badge of honor, pwning the libs and getting them all riled up.
These people are NOT deep thinkers. See our own specimens.
Ya got that right. The other day, I just looked at some videos of them when they were confronted with some of this shit. It's either bullshit from a biased media, or Trump is just right, and we love him regardless. It's bizarre.

I had a Facebook friend who posted about support for Trump. Anything negative she just said was lies - you can't trust the media. She demanded proof. Then ignored it when I posted it. She then said compare him to Harris. Someone else responded, OK - 34 felony convictions and numerous other undeniable things. No response. Radio silence. There's just no reasoning with them. And I thought this woman was actually fairly well educated. Sad.

I know others who are just conservative so they support his policies they say - even though they don't like him. I'm not sure how his policies are conservative anymore. But many are just anti-abortion big time. Sigh. The joys of living in the bible belt. I'm really wondering my decision to come back here.
 
“I just like his economic policies.”
“What policies?”
“Harris is for open borders.”
 
“I just like his economic policies.”
“What policies?”
“Harris is for open borders.”

I heard an ad today for Kari Lake, who is running for AZ Senate against Ruben Gallego. To hear the ad (and really, the entire GOP) tell it, the border is not only wide open, but there are giant billboards just across the border in Mexico with smiling photos of Biden/Harris and text (in Spanish and English) saying "come on in, rapists! Don't forget your fentanyl!" Then when you get to the border crossing or port of entry, there will be no border patrol to greet you, no customs agents, no federal agents of any kind, and you can drive your vehicle straight through without any inspection whatsoever.

You might say "well, that's silly...nobody believes that!" To which I reply that people genuinely believe Haitians roasted Miss Sassy Pants and ate her. When you point out that she's just fine, they're skeptical.

That aside, I'm less glum about the election (though not exactly popping the champagne yet) because while individual polls may swing this way and that, the trend is leaning heavily towards Harris.

I've mentioned it before, but one of the poll aggregators/prediction sites I follow is electoral-vote.com. As of today, they have Harris with 292 to Trump's 246...a pretty comfortable margin. It goes up and down, but compare that to the one before Biden dropped out. On July 19th, it was shaping up to be a shellacking, with Biden garnering only 218 to Trump's 320. In exactly two months, the race (according to their model) has swung wildly in Harris' favor. You can go back and look at past data, and see the progress for yourself. If it keeps going in this direction over the next month and a half, it could very well be a landslide for Harris. They also have Florida moved into the "Barely GOP" column, and while I don't think it will flip, but if things keep trending the way they have been since July 19th, it is not outside of the realm of possibility. Iowa has also gone from "Strongly GOP" to "Barely" as well.

If Harris manages to goad Trump into another debate and plays him like she did in the last one? If the mainstream media finally stops "sane-washing" Trump's wild rally claims? If Vance keeps doubling down on the racism and misogyny? These are all things that are possible, but even if none of these happens and the trends keep going in the direction they have been, it's far from a foregone conclusion that Trump wins.

(with the caveat that he might still be able to steal the election via his toadies at the state level/throw it into the House)
 
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If it keeps going in this direction over the next month and a half, it could very well be a landslide for Harris.

IF it kept going for another six weeks it WOULD be a landslide. It’s already slowed considerably and IMO could reverse instantly; all the fascists need to do is invent the right lie. And their lie-production facilities are just kicking into gear now. The cat eating fiasco has proven beyond all doubt that verity is totally irrelevant. Look foward to even more laughable, tragically powerful inventions that WILL motivate their comatose zombies to turn out and vote.
 
Here's a list I've compiled:

1. His vice president, Mike Pence: “The American people deserve to know that President Trump asked me to put him over my oath to the Constitution. … Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
...
25. William T. Kelley taught Marketing at Wharton School of Business and Finance, University of Pennsylvania: “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.”

Holy cow. Thanks for your work regarding the above. I'm going to forward to people that I know. Honestly, I'm shocked that so many people love Trump. The above ought to be an embarrassment to any Trump supporter.

I posted a similar list earlier. Perhaps someone might merge the two lists to get more than 25 former Trump confederates who now despise the Orange Messiah.
 
Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Yes, your map does show the importance of Pennsylvania. Which is why she should have picked Shapiro and not Walz. Not only because of the former's "favorite son" status, but also because he would have helped moderate the ticket, since Kamala herself is so far left. Walz does not help her do that, nor is MN in any danger.
 
I find it extremely unlikely that Trump will win. However, in the unlikely circumstance that he does, then it will be to the eternal shame of the United States. It will also be justification for the military to finally decide to honor their oath to protect the country from domestic enemies (Trump).
What, like overturn an election? An insurrection?
It's not an insurrection when the Left does it. Just ask Warlord Raz Simone, who was not even prosecuted for taking over and occupying US territory for several weeks with armed force.
 
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