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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

People seem to have a short memory. It was only back in '92 when William Jefferson Clinton, after really only having a halfway decent campaign, announced he was heading home to "feed the dog" after the Washington Caucus.

March 7th came and we saw history as he then swept a wildly successful campaign into a Presidential run.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
People seem to have a short memory. It was only back in '92 when William Jefferson Clinton, after really only having a halfway decent campaign, announced he was heading home to "feed the dog" after the Washington Caucus.

March 7th came and we saw history as he then swept a wildly successful campaign into a Presidential run.
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But I don't see how anything similar could come around this time. There's quite a bit more coverage of the election these days than there was back in the 90s and it's not like there's going to be some newly discovered quality about the also-rans which is going to suddenly start resonating with the voters which they aren't already aware of. The outsiders have their guys in Trump and Cruz and the those who prefer the establishment are looking for the characteristic of "Can potentially beat those two" far more than they're looking for anything else. Rubio is just as good as anyone else for that and anything else about him or any of the rest of them are tertiary at best.

Bush isn't suddenly going to turn up with a new last name and Christie, Kaisch and the rest aren't suddenly going to become inspiring to the folks they're inspired yawns in up to now. There's really nothing about them which makes them a better pick than Rubio.

One interesting theory I heard was that the establishment is talking about taking a step back and letting Cruz and Trump battle it out for the nomination. The idea is to let the nutter wing of the Party burn the crazy out this time around and see the results it gets for them and then try and retool with a bit of sanity for 2020, as opposed to have them settle for yet another moderate and mediocre candidate who'll just end up losing in the general election anyways and still be screaming about how now it's time for their real candidate's turn for the next one as well. Their efforts to contain the Frankenstein monster they created have failed and they need to just let it rampage around the village for a bit until it wanders off and gets lost in the Arctic.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
There's quite a bit more coverage of the election these days than there was back in the 90s and it's not like there's going to be some newly discovered quality about the also-rans which is going to suddenly start resonating with the voters which they aren't already aware of.
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But who is really paying attention?
 
Tom Sawyer said:
One interesting theory I heard was that the establishment is talking about taking a step back and letting Cruz and Trump battle it out for the nomination. The idea is to let the nutter wing of the Party burn the crazy out this time around and see the results it gets for them and then try and retool with a bit of sanity for 2020, as opposed to have them settle for yet another moderate and mediocre candidate who'll just end up losing in the general election anyways and still be screaming about how now it's time for their real candidate's turn for the next one as well. Their efforts to contain the Frankenstein monster they created have failed and they need to just let it rampage around the village for a bit until it wanders off and gets lost in the Arctic.
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Well, then they should lean towards Cruz, as they need to get the fundagelicals to understand that they are not anywhere close to the American center, and the majority of Americans find them more than a tad too much like neanderthals. A Trump loosing the primary, would just be the crazies crashing and the fundagelicals could still fantasize about righting the American Ark.

As well as the nutter wing is also kind of like Dori (Finding Nemo), and won't remember what went wrong by Thanksgiving 2016. Never mind the conspiracies that must have thwarted them...
 
Ben Carson cuts campaign staff - CNNPolitics.com
The retired pediatric neurosurgeon announced the shakeup -- which comes a month after several top staffers quit his campaign -- in a statement Thursday.

His campaign said staffers' responsibilities were shifting and the campaign's expenditures were being "reprioritized."

Carson spokesman Larry Ross said 50 people are being cut.

Carson told Fox News on Thursday that the staff reductions set his campaign up for an extended battle for the GOP nomination, all the way through the Republican National Convention
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Given that his campaign is going to a tailspin, I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out after the New Hampshire primary. But then again, he may be willing to accept Jim Gilmore status if that's what it takes to last through all the primaries.
 
Is the voting system for a President similar to the American, anywhere else in the world? The USA system is unique isn't it?
 
 Table of voting systems by country is a good place to look.

Electoral-college systems for electing presidents are *not* very common. The most common system is a two-round top-two delayed-runoff system. This is followed by direct first-past-the-post and election by legislature. The United States is likely the only nation with an activist president who is elected by an electoral college. Most other leaders elected by electoral colleges are ceremonial ones, like those of Germany and India and Pakistan. Those ones are elected by a combination of the national legislature and either the provincial legislatures or delegates from them.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
People seem to have a short memory. It was only back in '92 when William Jefferson Clinton, after really only having a halfway decent campaign, announced he was heading home to "feed the dog" after the Washington Caucus.

March 7th came and we saw history as he then swept a wildly successful campaign into a Presidential run.
Click to expand...

But I don't see how anything similar could come around this time.
Click to expand...
Seeing I was being facetious and it never actually happened before...
 
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/new-poll-shows-sanders-pulling-nearly-even-clinton-nationally

As Bernie Sanders continues to dominate New Hampshire numbers, Quinnipiac University released its first post-Iowa Caucus poll Friday morning, showing a drastic reduction in Hillary Clinton’s national lead over Sanders, down to just two percent. The poll surveyed 1,125 registered voters, 42 percent of whom pledged their support for Sanders compared with Clinton's 44 percent—the highest level of national support he’s received to date.

The fact that Sanders has pulled nearly even with Clinton nationally in this poll marks a steep climb. Quinnipiac’s previous poll released mid-December showed Clinton leading Sanders by 31 points.

----

Galumping right along!
 
Huffington Post national Polls Accumlative

49% Clinton
42% Trump

The closest to Sanders is Rubio

46% Sanders
43% Rubio

Sanders beats all GOP candidates in these polls.

51% Clinton 38% Sanders
 
Rasmussen/FOXNews/Hobby Lobby Poal

Rubio 99% Hillary Email 1%
Rubio 100% Stalinist Sanders -2%
Rubio 98% Trump 4%

Margin of error 100%
 
Currently I think it's too far out to say for sure that either Hillary or Bernie would be better than the eventual Republican nominee. Polls may change in the future, and I expect that the Republicans would use hammer & sickle ads against him. I'd be more surprised if they didn't work than if they did, though it remains to be seen.
 
i look forward to getting my hammer and sickle t-shirt out of mothballs.
 
I would very much like to see Sanders win just to see Right Winger's heads explode from sea to shining sea.

Reason # 21 to vote for Bernie.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
I would very much like to see Sanders win just to see Right Winger's heads explode from sea to shining sea.

Reason # 21 to vote for Bernie.
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Nah, that would be too big a biohazard mess. Not to mention turning the US into a toxic waste dump.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
I would very much like to see Sanders win just to see Right Winger's heads explode from sea to shining sea.

Reason # 21 to vote for Bernie.
Click to expand...

Nah, that would be too big a biohazard mess. Not to mention turning the US into a toxic waste dump.
Click to expand...

It's OK; the volume of brain material involved is too small to cause a hazard, even if thousands of right winger cranial detonations occur in a relatively small area (Such as the Republican National Convention).

There wouldn't be enough grey matter released to warrant a 'Caution - wet floor' sign.
 
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