US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[fromderinside]

About Mega Tuesday going on today, it looks like Little Marco will die politically because it looks like he will lose, and lose big.
Kasich on the other hand looks good in Ohio. A win for him means that he will stay in the race, fight in the midwestern states and try as much as possible to make it a three way race because that would give him a good chance come brokered convention.

I keep getting this urge to write "if wishes were horses" when you post your white assed stuff.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

About Mega Tuesday going on today, it looks like Little Marco will die politically because it looks like he will lose, and lose big.
Kasich on the other hand looks good in Ohio. A win for him means that he will stay in the race, fight in the midwestern states and try as much as possible to make it a three way race because that would give him a good chance come brokered convention.

That does seem to be Kasich's strategy. With Rubio gone, he is then the establishment candidate. Not through any choice by the establishment, of course, but he's what's left standing after their top dozen or so burned out. The key question for him at that point is whether or not that backing and the cash and exposure which comes with it combined with the lack of vote splitting can translate into his winning seven more states out of what remains so that the GOP doesn't need to change the rules at the convention to make him a leadership candidate. He's not the candidate they want, but I think that the country would be ambivalent enough towards him that there wouldn't be quite the surge in turnout against him that they'd see with Trump or Cruz and the negative impact on the downstream races in the House and Senate would be lessened, which is about the best that they can hope for at this point.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The scenario, Kasich wins a few states, goes to brokered convention where Trump falls short delegates to win outright and trades his delegates for VP slot.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In '12, the Republicans went through a drawn out struggle to find a crazy-assed opponent for the establishment pick of Romney. The establishment pick was always set and rarely in danger.

Republicans changed the rules to prevent this from happening again and now in '16, we are going through a drawn out struggle to find a crazy-assed candidate and an establishment candidate.

This is a pretty late time to win your first state. Based on what electoral-vote.com put out there, the Republicans actually require the Presidential nominee to have won at least 8 states!

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The scenario, Kasich wins a few states, goes to brokered convention where Trump falls short delegates to win outright and trades his delegates for VP slot.

I can't see Trump taking a VP slot and accepting a second fiddle role to some loser who didn't have what it took to beat him in the primary campaign and needed a back room deal to be given the top spot over the objections of the voters. For him, it's all or nothing.

 

[Derec]

About Mega Tuesday going on today, it looks like Little Marco will die politically because it looks like he will lose, and lose big.
Kasich on the other hand looks good in Ohio. A win for him means that he will stay in the race, fight in the midwestern states and try as much as possible to make it a three way race because that would give him a good chance come brokered convention.

I keep getting this urge to write "if wishes were horses" when you post your white assed stuff.

You are not even trying to hide your racism, do you?

What do you think is unrealistic about what I wrote? If Kasich wins and Rubio loses it will be only Trump, Cruz and Kasich. The GOP establishment wants to stop Trump but they can't stand Cruz either - so Kasich is the only one left, unless they want to take somebody like Romney or Ryan who hasn't even run. In any case, Kasich will (given that he wins Ohio and a few more states) have a strong position in the convention.

 

[jonatha]

Based on what electoral-vote.com put out there, the Republicans actually require the Presidential nominee to have won at least 8 states!

I don't think that's what it means.

RealClearPolitics indicates the rule says "a candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination". But it doesn't appear to state that this criterion must be reached before the convention starts. That is, as long as the eventual nominee ends up with the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states, it doesn't matter how many delegates supported him on the first ballot....

Or, as the linked article explicitly states, they can always change that rule.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

In '12, the Republicans went through a drawn out struggle to find a crazy-assed opponent for the establishment pick of Romney. The establishment pick was always set and rarely in danger.

Republicans changed the rules to prevent this from happening again and now in '16, we are going through a drawn out struggle to find a crazy-assed candidate and an establishment candidate.

This is a pretty late time to win your first state. Based on what electoral-vote.com put out there, the Republicans actually require the Presidential nominee to have won at least 8 states!

Some GOP "strategists" are now claiming that rule is no longer operative, being set up as one shot deals for 2012, and new rules have to be set up for the 2016 convention. Bullshitting us or the truth? Crystal Ball says "Ask again later".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Based on what electoral-vote.com put out there, the Republicans actually require the Presidential nominee to have won at least 8 states!

I don't think that's what it means.

RealClearPolitics indicates the rule says "a candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination". But it doesn't appear to state that this criterion must be reached before the convention starts. That is, as long as the eventual nominee ends up with the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states, it doesn't matter how many delegates supported him on the first ballot....

Or, as the linked article explicitly states, they can always change that rule.

I'm sorry, but I can't take that article seriously.

It’s easy to see how a requirement like Rule 40 could become an issue in the 2016 race. The GOP field is crowded, talented and reasonably well-funded.

But seriously, okay, that seems more detailed that what was included at electoral-vote.com. ETA, but I'm taking that back. How can a candidate become a nominee with just 8 states supporting him in second or third or ... vote?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Based on what electoral-vote.com put out there, the Republicans actually require the Presidential nominee to have won at least 8 states!

I don't think that's what it means.

RealClearPolitics indicates the rule says "a candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination". But it doesn't appear to state that this criterion must be reached before the convention starts. That is, as long as the eventual nominee ends up with the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states, it doesn't matter how many delegates supported him on the first ballot....

Or, as the linked article explicitly states, they can always change that rule.

But by the time the convention starts, the primaries will all long have been over. So if any insurgent candidate be he ever so supported by the GOP mainstream elite, if he is an outside who took no part in the primaries is dead meat if these rules are said to hold in 2016. The only way an outsider, say Romney, could win is if they changed to 8 state rule, which would see Trump kick over the chess board and bolt the party waging a write in campaign and urging his voters to stay home if they can't do that. And maybe vote for Hillary in spite. The party bigwigs know it too. So I doubt they would change this now and support an outsider. Trump would have something very harsh to say about that if they did. I am surprised nobody in the talking head pundocracy hasn't posed this hypothetical to Trump for his official reaction to the very idea.

 

[Sarpedon]

I have to say that I am looking forward to watching Rubio fail to win Florida. Everything I read tells me he deserves it. He used Florida and Dade county as stepping stones, and now is looking behind him and finding no one he used and discarded there is backing him up, from ex-Governor Bush on down. You could make an opera out of this.

 

[Rhea]

The only way an outsider, say Romney, could win is if they changed to 8 state rule, which would see Trump kick over the chess board and bolt the party waging a write in campaign and urging his voters to stay home if they can't do that. And maybe vote for Hillary in spite.

Do you think this is the devious manifestation of the original Trump-is-PsyOps-for-Hillary scheme? Wow, that's sublime. He is a long player.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The only way an outsider, say Romney, could win is if they changed to 8 state rule, which would see Trump kick over the chess board and bolt the party waging a write in campaign and urging his voters to stay home if they can't do that. And maybe vote for Hillary in spite.

Do you think this is the devious manifestation of the original Trump-is-PsyOps-for-Hillary scheme? Wow, that's sublime. He is a long player.

Here's the thing. If the Republicans are able to wrestle away the nomination because Trump only has a plurality, not a majority, I could see Trump on the stage with Hillary the next day telling his supporters to give the Republicans the finger and vote a straight Democrat ticket. His supporters, being completely out of their minds with steadfast support for the Trumpster, they'd go lock stepped to the polls and wave in a massive landslide for Clinton.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The only way an outsider, say Romney, could win is if they changed to 8 state rule, which would see Trump kick over the chess board and bolt the party waging a write in campaign and urging his voters to stay home if they can't do that. And maybe vote for Hillary in spite.

Do you think this is the devious manifestation of the original Trump-is-PsyOps-for-Hillary scheme? Wow, that's sublime. He is a long player.

No. But polls and surveys suggest many Trump voters would indeed go for Clinton if Trump loses. Especially if Trump is "robbed" at a brokered convention. Of course to balance that, a lot of Bernie supporters despise Clinton and have stated if Bernie loses, they may go for Trump. Its a plain weird election year.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Do you think this is the devious manifestation of the original Trump-is-PsyOps-for-Hillary scheme? Wow, that's sublime. He is a long player.

No. But polls and surveys suggest many Trump voters would indeed go for Clinton if Trump loses. Especially if Trump is "robbed" at a brokered convention. Of course to balance that, a lot of Bernie supporters despise Clinton and have stated if Bernie loses, they may go for Trump. Its a plain weird election year.

The later will not happen. Clinton is a pragmatist, she knows better. She'll add a thing or two of Sander's platform to hers and the Democrats will be united and the angry, bitter, racist asshats will vote for Clinton too???! Hey wait a second...

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Do you think this is the devious manifestation of the original Trump-is-PsyOps-for-Hillary scheme? Wow, that's sublime. He is a long player.

Here's the thing. If the Republicans are able to wrestle away the nomination because Trump only has a plurality, not a majority, I could see Trump on the stage with Hillary the next day telling his supporters to give the Republicans the finger and vote a straight Democrat ticket. His supporters, being completely out of their minds with steadfast support for the Trumpster, they'd go lock stepped to the polls and wave in a massive landslide for Clinton.

Exactly. It would be too late to mount a viable third party candidacy, but not too late to bring ruin on the GOP. Samson pulling down the temple pillars. Thus I do not think the GOP will go to any such extreme as to bring in a Romney to save the GOP elites and mainstream. All they can do is hold their noses, go eventually with Trump, and watch their party lose. And then offer to rescue the GOP from Trumpistas and Tea Party kooks and Cruz fanatics. I suspect this is sort of what will in fact happen.


"So, for instance, when in a recent national speech, the financial minister of the Royal World Estate of Qualvista actually dared to say that due to one thing and another, and the fact that no one had made any food for awhile and the king seemed to have died, and that most of the population had been on holiday now for over three years, the economy had now arrived at what he called, “One whole juju-flop situation,” everyone was so pleased he felt able to come out and say it, that they quite failed to notice that their five-thousand-year-old civilisation had just collapsed overnight. "

The GOP is fast approaching a juju flop sitatuation it seems.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's the thing. If the Republicans are able to wrestle away the nomination because Trump only has a plurality, not a majority, I could see Trump on the stage with Hillary the next day telling his supporters to give the Republicans the finger and vote a straight Democrat ticket. His supporters, being completely out of their minds with steadfast support for the Trumpster, they'd go lock stepped to the polls and wave in a massive landslide for Clinton.

Exactly. It would be too late to mount a viable third party candidacy, but not too late to bring ruin on the GOP. Samson pulling down the temple pillars. Thus I do not think the GOP will go to any such extreme as to bring in a Romney to save the GOP elites and mainstream. All they can do is hold their noses, go eventually with Trump, and watch their party lose. And then offer to rescue the GOP from Trumpistas and Tea Party kooks and Cruz fanatics. I suspect this is sort of what will in fact happen.


"So, for instance, when in a recent national speech, the financial minister of the Royal World Estate of Qualvista actually dared to say that due to one thing and another, and the fact that no one had made any food for awhile and the king seemed to have died, and that most of the population had been on holiday now for over three years, the economy had now arrived at what he called, “One whole juju-flop situation,” everyone was so pleased he felt able to come out and say it, that they quite failed to notice that their five-thousand-year-old civilisation had just collapsed overnight. "

The GOP is fast approaching a juju flop sitatuation it seems.

The trouble with Trump as the Republican candidate isn't the White House, it is the Congress. The Republicans are defending about 2 dozen seats in the Senate. 5% loss because Trump tarnishes the Senator by being on the ticket means a bigger loss in the Senate. Same applies to the House.

 

[funinspace]

Exactly. It would be too late to mount a viable third party candidacy, but not too late to bring ruin on the GOP. Samson pulling down the temple pillars. Thus I do not think the GOP will go to any such extreme as to bring in a Romney to save the GOP elites and mainstream. All they can do is hold their noses, go eventually with Trump, and watch their party lose. And then offer to rescue the GOP from Trumpistas and Tea Party kooks and Cruz fanatics. I suspect this is sort of what will in fact happen.


"So, for instance, when in a recent national speech, the financial minister of the Royal World Estate of Qualvista actually dared to say that due to one thing and another, and the fact that no one had made any food for awhile and the king seemed to have died, and that most of the population had been on holiday now for over three years, the economy had now arrived at what he called, “One whole juju-flop situation,” everyone was so pleased he felt able to come out and say it, that they quite failed to notice that their five-thousand-year-old civilisation had just collapsed overnight. "

The GOP is fast approaching a juju flop sitatuation it seems.

The trouble with Trump as the Republican candidate isn't the White House, it is the Congress. The Republicans are defending about 2 dozen seats in the Senate. 5% loss because Trump tarnishes the Senator by being on the ticket means a bigger loss in the Senate. Same applies to the House.

Yep, the Repugs might decide that a fractured convention that picked Carnival Cruz after 7 voting rounds might be a less bad loss. Though they certainly would risk Trump going full Loki and trying to pull down the pillars...

Grab your towel and be prepared...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The trouble with Trump as the Republican candidate isn't the White House, it is the Congress. The Republicans are defending about 2 dozen seats in the Senate. 5% loss because Trump tarnishes the Senator by being on the ticket means a bigger loss in the Senate. Same applies to the House.

Yep, the Repugs might decide that a fractured convention that picked Carnival Cruz after 7 voting rounds might be a less bad loss. Though they certainly would risk Trump going full Loki and trying to pull down the pillars...

Grab your towel and be prepared...

Be prepared? This shit isn't going down in your backyard!

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Be prepared? This shit isn't going down in your backyard!

But it is going down in my neighbour's backyard and I can peer over the fence and laugh at it.