US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[AthenaAwakened]

Be prepared? This shit isn't going down in your backyard!

But it is going down in my neighbour's backyard and I can peer over the fence and laugh at it.

When your neighbor has nuclear weapons and a crazy man a nomination away from putting his finger on the button, ain't nothing to laugh at.

 

[funinspace]

Yep, the Repugs might decide that a fractured convention that picked Carnival Cruz after 7 voting rounds might be a less bad loss. Though they certainly would risk Trump going full Loki and trying to pull down the pillars...

Grab your towel and be prepared...

Be prepared? This shit isn't going down in your backyard!

Like I said get a towel, it will be ok; and a cookie if you are hungry. Besides you can always put on Drew Carey re-runs. Hey, if we survived the Bundy Bunch in our backyard you can survive a loony convention

Maybe the extra dildos could be shipped east over to your backyard...

 

[Tom Sawyer]

But it is going down in my neighbour's backyard and I can peer over the fence and laugh at it.

When your neighbor has nuclear weapons and a crazy man a nomination away from putting his finger on the button, ain't nothing to laugh at.

As I've said numerous times, I don't think that there's any risk at all of Donald Trump or any other Republican candidate winning the Presidency this year. I'm quite content just sitting back and laughing at the process of how they're going about losing.

 

[jonatha]

I don't think that's what it means.

RealClearPolitics indicates the rule says "a candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination". But it doesn't appear to state that this criterion must be reached before the convention starts. That is, as long as the eventual nominee ends up with the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states, it doesn't matter how many delegates supported him on the first ballot....

Or, as the linked article explicitly states, they can always change that rule.

But by the time the convention starts, the primaries will all long have been over. So if any insurgent candidate be he ever so supported by the GOP mainstream elite, if he is an outside who took no part in the primaries is dead meat if these rules are said to hold in 2016.

The question is whether the "8 states support" has to exist at some point prior to the convention starting.

Most commentary I've seen assumes it does, so Paul Ryan couldn't be drafted.

But the wording of the rule doesn't seem to say that. All it says is that in order to be nominated in the first place a candidate needs the support of the majority of the delegates from 8 states.

So if we *do* get to a brokered convention and no nominee is selected before the point at which delegates no longer have to vote for their pledged candidate, Paul Ryan might possibly be nominated if beforehand he lines up support from more than half of the delegates from Nevada, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, New Hampsire, Rhode Island, Maine, and Florida. He would then have the support of the majority of the delegates from 8 states and he could be nominated.

Pity Justice Scalia is no longer with us. I can see him in his robes sitting alongside the convention chairman to rule on the meaning of this particular rule

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Be prepared? This shit isn't going down in your backyard!

Like I said get a towel, it will be ok; and a cookie if you are hungry. Besides you can always put on Drew Carey re-runs. Hey, if we survived the Bundy Bunch in our backyard you can survive a loony convention

Maybe the extra dildos could be shipped east over to your backyard...

Dude, we are already going to be overflowing with dicks... we don't need fake ones too.

 

[Sarpedon]

The question is whether the "8 states support" has to exist at some point prior to the convention starting.

Most commentary I've seen assumes it does, so Paul Ryan couldn't be drafted.

Actually, news sources I've read says they have to have that the support must be registered one hour before calling the ballot. Which means that after the delegates are unbound, a majority of the delegates of a state announces support for someone, anyone, that counts for the 8 states (or territories, significantly, there's still Porto Rico, DC, Guam, American Samoa, North Marineras and the Virgin Islands, etc)

 

[Sarpedon]

Well that was over quickly: With 66% of precincts in, they are calling Florida for Trump, at nearly 20% over Rubio. It looks like Rubio will only carry his own county.

Kasich leading in Ohio, but too early for it to be meaningful.
Cruz performing strong second in NC, which is proportional, so good on him.

ETA: And Rubio quits. Doesn't even wait for all precincts to report. I would call this the most humiliating presidential candidate defeat ever, if we hadn't seen so many this year.

 

[MarkW]

On the Democratic side, AP has called Florida, North Carolina and Ohio for Clinton.

 

[lpetrich]

Marco Rubio Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign - ABC News
Rubio suspends campaign after Trump wins Florida; Clinton projected to win Fla., NC | Fox News
But John Kasich will likely win Ohio.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Looks like Clinton could go five for five tonight.

 

[MarkW]

North Carolina has now been called for The Donald, and he looks to be in pretty good shape in Illinois as well.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sanders looks to win Missouri, does well in Illinois.

North Carolina has now been called for The Donald, and he looks to be in pretty good shape in Illinois as well.

But losing Ohio is a big deal. If he gets 40% of the proportional delegates and loses California (WTA), he isn't the nominee. Trump is saying they need to unify as a party now. How quaint.

 

[MarkW]

Sanders looks to win Missouri, does well in Illinois.

North Carolina has now been called for The Donald, and he looks to be in pretty good shape in Illinois as well.

But losing Ohio is a big deal. If he gets 40% of the proportional delegates and loses California (WTA), he isn't the nominee. Trump is saying they need to unify as a party now. How quaint.

The flip side to Kasich's win, however, is that he is now likely to remain in the race for at least the next several weeks; I'd be surprised if he dropped out before the April 26 primaries. That means the anti-Trump vote will continue to be split between Cruz and Kasich, giving Trump considerably improved chances in several states.

Also, California is not a pure winner-take-all state. Most of the state's 172 delegates are awarded by House district, with the winner of the vote in each district getting 3 delegates.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Will Quigg, KKK Grand Dragon in California, Switches Support From Trump to Hillary Clinton

A prominent white supremacist who was supporting Donald Trump has switched his support to Hillary Clinton, he said on Monday.

Will Quigg, a grand dragon with the Ku Klux Klan’s California branch, said he supports Clinton because she has a “hidden agenda.”

“We want Hillary Clinton to win. She is telling everybody one thing, but she has a hidden agenda,” Quigg, a grand dragon of the KKK’s California chapter who is responsible for recruitment across the Western United States, told the Telegraph.

 

[Blahface]

Sanders looks to win Missouri, does well in Illinois.

But losing Ohio is a big deal. If he gets 40% of the proportional delegates and loses California (WTA), he isn't the nominee. Trump is saying they need to unify as a party now. How quaint.

The flip side to Kasich's win, however, is that he is now likely to remain in the race for at least the next several weeks; I'd be surprised if he dropped out before the April 26 primaries. That means the anti-Trump vote will continue to be split between Cruz and Kasich, giving Trump considerably improved chances in several states.

Also, California is not a pure winner-take-all state. Most of the state's 172 delegates are awarded by House district, with the winner of the vote in each district getting 3 delegates.

It is frustrating that nobody in the media has caught on about how stupid the first-past-the-post voting is. They see the vote splitting occurring, but they just accept that is the way it is and pretend that this is democratic representation.

 

[lpetrich]

It is frustrating that nobody in the media has caught on about how stupid the first-past-the-post voting is. They see the vote splitting occurring, but they just accept that is the way it is and pretend that this is democratic representation.

Yes, one might expect those professional chatterboxes of the public-affairs programs to be willing to talk about that, if only to give themselves something to talk about. Especially to talk about how other nations do elections.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sanders looks to win Missouri, does well in Illinois.

But losing Ohio is a big deal. If he gets 40% of the proportional delegates and loses California (WTA), he isn't the nominee. Trump is saying they need to unify as a party now. How quaint.

The flip side to Kasich's win, however, is that he is now likely to remain in the race for at least the next several weeks; I'd be surprised if he dropped out before the April 26 primaries. That means the anti-Trump vote will continue to be split between Cruz and Kasich, giving Trump considerably improved chances in several states.

The anti-Trump is voting Kasich. Cruz has his own cult voting for him. Besides, this isn't about winning, but a higher percentage not voting for Trump.

Also, California is not a pure winner-take-all state. Most of the state's 172 delegates are awarded by House district, with the winner of the vote in each district getting 3 delegates.

Really? I thought I saw somewhere it was WTA. Oh well, that messes up my math.

 

[MarkW]

Also, California is not a pure winner-take-all state. Most of the state's 172 delegates are awarded by House district, with the winner of the vote in each district getting 3 delegates.

Really? I thought I saw somewhere it was WTA. Oh well, that messes up my math.

I think California used to be pure WTA--I used to live there and that's how I remember it. But they've made some big changes in how they do primaries down there in the past few years. These days, The Green Papers is my go-to site for information about delegate allocation rules.

 

[lpetrich]

Presidential election in California, 2016 - Ballotpedia has more details.

Republican Party

California is expected to have 172 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 159 will be district-level delegates (three for each of the state's 53 congressional districts). California's district delegates will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the plurality winner in a given congressional district will win all of that district's delegates.[2]

Of the remaining 13 delegates, 10 will serve at-large. California's at-large delegates will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the plurality winner of the statewide primary vote will receive all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) will serve as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates will be required to pledge their support to the winner of the state's primary.[2]

referencing KM_C454e-20151002114916 - 2016 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATING PROCESS BOOK_1443803140.pdf by the Republican National Committee

 

[lpetrich]

Who's in and who's out:

Republican:
Ted Cruz: 2015 Mar 23 -
Rand Paul: 2015 Apr 7 - 2016 Feb 3
Marco Rubio: 2015 Apr 13 - 2016 Mar 15
Ben Carson: 2015 May 3 - 2016 Mar 4
Carly Fiorina: 2015 May 4 - 2016 Feb 11
Mike Huckabee: 2015 May 5 - 2016 Feb 1
Rick Santorum: 2015 May 27 - 2016 Feb 3
George Pataki: 2015 May 28 - 2015 Dec 29
Lindsey Graham: 2015 Jun 1 - 2015 Dec 21
Rick Perry: 2015 Jun 4 - 2015 Sep 11
Jeb Bush: 2015 Jun 15 - 2016 Feb 20
Donald Trump: 2015 Jun 16 -
Bobby Jindal: 2015 Jun 24 - 2015 Nov 17
Chris Christie: 2015 Jun 30 - 2016 Feb 11
Scott Walker: 2015 Jul 13 - 2015 Sep 21
John Kasich: 2015 Jul 21 -
Jim Gilmore: 2015 Jul 29 - 2016 Feb 12

Democratic:
Hillary Clinton: 2015 Apr 12 -
Bernie Sanders: 2015 Apr 30 -
Martin O'Malley: 2015 May 30 - 2016 Feb 1
Lincoln Chafee: 2015 June 3 - 2015 Oct 23
Jim Webb: 2015 Jul 2 - 2015 Oct 2
Lawrence Lessig: 2015 Sep 6 - 2015 Nov 8