Well... it's Trump... again. #47, here we go.

[Ford]

The only possible way out at this point is to somehow reduce the existing debt. But our politicians can not even slow the growth of debt.
Whether you realize it or not the US is seriously screwed right now. No nation in the world since the beginning of man has ever been in debt as much as the US is right now. US debt interest has never been higher than the already bloated military budget and soon the interest will exceed tax receipts.

I don't have the book anymore to look up some pithy quotes, but that's basically what "Bankruptcy 1995" was saying. Reduce debt or go bankrupt, politicians not doing anything, the US is screwed, blah blah blah. There was another book that I looked into (but didn't buy) called "The Coming Economic Earthquake" that was similar doom and gloom but with a "and so get right with Jesus now" twist.

The economic earthquake did not usher in the end times. Rush Limbaugh had a book called "See, I Told You So" and he's dead now, so...

 

[GenesisNemesis]

So Trump has his goon Hegseth remove General Milley's security detail and starts an investigation into him. Trump is behaving more and more like a terrorist.

ThErE wIlL bE gUaRd RaIlS tHiS tImE!!!

 

[Elixir]

Rush Limbaugh had a book called "See, I Told You So" and he's dead now, so...

But if it ever happens …
He told you so!

 

[RVonse]

Hell, during WWII our debt/GDP ratio is higher than is today.

I don't know from whom you are getting your ideas and analysis, but they are not consistent with our history or reality.

According to this: https://econofact.org/why-is-the-u-s-debt-expected-to-keep-growing

It is just about the same according to the graph.

But that was just after a major world war when we had spent huge funds on production capacity that we do not have now.

And according to the article debt is sure go up even further unlike WW2 aftermath where we had the means to produce our way out of it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

RE: BOLDED SECTION - what you really should be saying is that under MAGA and Trump the US government is as truly corrupt as everyone accuses it of being. Those specific actions of Biden's occurred immediately before Trump and the GOP gained total power, so if government is corrupt it is the GOP government. I also have to repeat what I have said a couple of times before in other threads - even before this month the GOP was the government as they had control of the House since 2022.

Good point but I believe your thinking is still flawed. It is flawed because our founders specifically setup 3 separate branches, the justice department being completely separate from the executive and legislative branches. And there was no GOP power change in the justice branch when Trump came back to power.

Biden was scared of a justice branch that was exactly the same branch he had while Democrats and himself were in power. He was scared of institutionalized corruption in our government and not just a change in power.

SCOTUS has shown considerable willingness to do his bidding.

 

[Swammerdami]

Hell, during WWII our debt/GDP ratio is higher than is today.

I don't know from whom you are getting your ideas and analysis, but they are not consistent with our history or reality.

In your dialect does "since the beginning of man" mean "beginning in 1950"?

According to this: https://econofact.org/why-is-the-u-s-debt-expected-to-keep-growing

It is just about the same according to the graph.

But that was just after a major world war when we had spent huge funds on production capacity that we do not have now.

And according to the article debt is sure go up even further unlike WW2 aftermath where we had the means to produce our way out of it.

Which is your answer? A or B? This IS an open-book quiz. Feel free to consult any resource you need.

 

[Elixir]

our founders specifically setup 3 separate branches, the justice department being completely separate from the executive and legislative branches

Which is why the FACT that Trump holds sway over the Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress as well as the SCOTUS and much of the Federal judiciary is beyond alarming.
The fascist guy wants to be The Dictator plain and simple, as you’ve been informed for years.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Meanwhile in far right - hyper antiseptic corporate governance... Trump is offering 8 month buy-out to two million people. Part of me likes the idea, in comical theory, of all two million people taking the deal.

so, another (after using military jets instead of chartered planes for the deportations) example of wasteful government spending; paying people to not work for eight months.

Is that what we should expect for “government efficiency”?

How would you trim down government payroll that is bloated without pissing off the most number of people? I've never worked in government but they say those jobs are the hardest to fire anyone. In private industry I know that buyouts are extremely popular when the companies I have worked for want to reduce employee head count because the older people ready to retire anyway can get an extra bonus on the way out.

The problem here is you are taking as truth the MAGA assertions. They make false claims and present "solutions" for the false problem. Most of what the government spends is payments to others, not payroll. Thus taking an axe to payroll won't make much difference.

Fundamentally, The Felon has promised the impossible. He wants a total budget less than the items that he's said he isn't cutting. And he no doubt plans to "pay for it" with a tax cut for the rich. Just like he did last time--and exploded the deficit.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I've never worked for government but I have worked from some really big corporations over long periods of time. Generally what happens is that sales are really good so they hire a bunch of people for production who then hire a bunch of more administrators. And then over time those administrators get even more lazy and try to prove how hard they are working so they can get their headcount numbers increased even more. Everything works out well but all the administrators start slacking (because of all the headcount) but still making a lot of money. It should be noted that production headcount is more tied to the actual production but administration is not. Anyway for one reason or another sales will inevitably tank and the CEO starts closing plants and laying off people. When he starts closing the plants and laying off all the excess headcount I guarantee he is not thinking about quality or anything else except survival. Maybe he should be but he isn't. They just keep laying off until the line can't run any longer and then and only then will they start hiring back only what it takes to run again.

That is where our government is today. Too many administrators hired over the years, some of them just looking busy. Bloated salaries and defined pensions no longer competitive in private industry. Those are the dead weight Musk will be looking for. It isn't possible to get rid of government employees so the only practical approach Musk can do is to lay them all off en mass and then re-hire what it takes to run afterwords. It sounds stupid but that is exactly how the super huge corporations do it because it works and they can't get down to nitty gritty with such a huge personnel to do it more efficiently. First they bring in the buyouts and incentive's for the old people that want to retire anyway. Then they bring in the ax to get down to their goal.

The problem with this approach is that when you offer buyouts your best people are the ones most likely to take it. Thus you run your company into the shitter.

And there's absolutely no reason for the government to be doing this because payroll is a small portion of it's total spending. It's not about cutting the budget, it's about replacing useful people with lackeys.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The government is an extremely large organization and a large organization of workforce is something I do have years of experience. Under such a circumstance, low energy is the sure way to fail. I am sure of that much. Musk needs to put 100% into this.

And this has to happen soon because we are already likely doomed. Interest expense of the deficit is more than the military budget now. This is how empires fall.

What are you, one of those corporate raiders that comes in and guts companies? Because buyouts are about making the books look good but doing major damage down the road. And it's totally not considering the fact that you're trying to fix things by focusing on a small part.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

National Science Foundation suspends salary payments, leaving researchers unable to pay their bills

An NSF online payment system remained down after the federal funding freeze was lifted, leaving early-career scientists scrambling to pay bills

www.statnews.com

National Science Foundation suspends salary payments, leaving researchers unable to pay their bills​

NSF payment system remained offline despite the lifting of Trump administration funding freeze​

Trump's goons are either lying or total fuckups.

From the article:

Though a judge blocked that suspension on Tuesday before it could take effect, and the administration rescinded the memo that ordered it on Wednesday, on Thursday the NSF’s online payment system was still down...

This is a lawless administration. Even taking them to court won't stop them.

This might just be fucking up.

Suspend salary payments, somebody decides not to work for no pay. And when the judge rescinded it the instruction was sent to an empty desk.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But for most everyone else on this thread knowing how dumb and corrupt Trump and MAGA are, could I hear your response on Biden's pre-emptive pardons for INNOCENT people prior to leaving office?

Are you in some sort of contest with yourself for inanity?

Pardoning GUILTY people can be problematic. What is your objection to pardoning INNOCENT people?

In the unlikely event that you deign to address this question, but "need" to turn it into a long dialog where concessions of actual thought are squeezed out of you, one short phrase at a time, I will not participate. Just declare yourself the winner now if that rouses your balls.

If they were innocent they wouldn't be suspects!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But for most everyone else on this thread knowing how dumb and corrupt Trump and MAGA are, could I hear your response on Biden's pre-emptive pardons for INNOCENT people prior to leaving office?

Are you in some sort of contest with yourself for inanity?

Pardoning GUILTY people can be problematic. What is your objection to pardoning INNOCENT people?

In the unlikely event that you deign to address this question, but "need" to turn it into a long dialog where concessions of actual thought are squeezed out of you, one short phrase at a time, I will not participate. Just declare yourself the winner now if that rouses your balls.

1. It may not even be legal
2. Pardoning innocent individuals lifts the flood gate they are free to commit crimes pre-emptively. Big time moral hazard.
3. It tells the public these are really guilty people that got away with it.

Reality check time:

1) Why wouldn't it be legal? He pardoned acts that fell into certain categories. Nothing about that requires that there actually is something in that category. (Suppose I put up a sign: "Entry forbidden to those taller than 9'.")

2) They were pardons for past acts, not future acts.

3) It doesn't tell people that they are guilty. Have you noticed that I have for some time said he should preemptively pardon the targets of the witch hunts? Which is what he did, but not widely enough. Does that mean I think they're guilty of anything? No. Witch hunts are never about the guilty. The only pardon that went to someone that I think is guilty is his son--and I agree with it, anyway. The Republicans were blocking the proper course of justice. (And I would say that even if I didn't feel the crime he was charged with shouldn't exist. Drugs should be treated like alcohol--don't mix with guns. Not that you can't do both but at different times.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Interest expense of the deficit is more than the military budget now. This is how empires fall.

Interesting. You blame the deficit on lazy government workers but then choose interest on the debt as your example of over-spending!
What? Do you think a large percentage of the interest payments ends up in the paws of the lazy bureaucrats?

Scrutinizing the Federal Budget is a pastime many of us have indulged in off-and-on for decades.

But this is how empires fall!!!

Speaking of decades, a few of them ago (early 1990s) I was listening to an AM talk radio show that was promoting a book that sure sounded ominous. It was making the case that the staggering $4 trillion dollar debt (which was run up under Reagan/Bush but they were blaming it all on Clinton for some reason) was unsustainable and the country would go bankrupt soon.

In fact the title of the book was "Bankruptcy 1995." I got a copy of what they were shilling, and it seemed pretty doom and gloom as advertised.

Welp, bankruptcy didn't happen...for the country or for me. In fact, 1995 was a very good year in my world. I was making money, having fun, and not worrying about the empire falling because the boom was just ramping up. And though the "dot com" bubble burst, the President that the book claimed would leave our country a smoking, bankrupt ruin actually left office with a budget surplus.

Specifically inflation is how empires fall. The inflation (which is caused by money printing to relieve borrowing even more) has to be resolved or all of society is in deep trouble. That is why Volker went after inflation during the 70's (then caused by the viet Nam war and oil shortages) in a big way. But that will not work this time because interest can not be raised without killing the economy. So the fed can't raise interest (like it could in the 70's) nor can it keep interest low without allowing more inflation. It should be noted this was all caused by money printing. In Roman times the government started to clip metal out of their coins, now days all we do is print more money digits. But when things get bad enough the prices are so high people can not feed themselves, the society is lost.

The only possible way out at this point is to somehow reduce the existing debt. But our politicians can not even slow the growth of debt.
Whether you realize it or not the US is seriously screwed right now. No nation in the world since the beginning of man has ever been in debt as much as the US is right now. US debt interest has never been higher than the already bloated military budget and soon the interest will exceed tax receipts. Many (like Peter Schiff who accurately predicted 2008) think there is no way out now. At least Trump thinks he can recover where we are at.

So the problem of US debt is real and I hope that Musk can somehow come up with some solutions in order to save the country.

Inflation was an issue for a short period due to Covid messing up the supply chain.

Otherwise, the route to tackling the debt is to shoot anyone who promotes tax cuts. But your clown wants more tax cuts.

 

[bilby]

Interest expense of the deficit is more than the military budget now. This is how empires fall.

Can you provide an example of an empire that failed due to interest payments?

Or a country that was unable to fund those payments in a fiat currency that that country controlled?

 

[bilby]

Specifically inflation is how empires fall.

Great. Then stop worrying about debt, and look at inflation.

Is it spiralling out of control? Is there a shred of evidence that it is about to? No? Then what the fuck are you worrying about?

The US has no problem servicing her debts; Inflation is low and has been very effectively managed via interest rate adjustments for nearly six decades now.

The transfer of wealth from the US taxpayer to bondholders, most of whom are IMO less deserving than poorer, non-bondholding Americans, and which wealth could instead have been spent on infrastructure benefiting every American, is a consequence of taxes being too low on the wealthiest Americans.

It's not a national disaster, but it is very bad management. And it leads to local disasters, such as planes crashing due to overworked and underfunded ATC systems.

The US economy isn't in bad shape. It could be better, but if you're looking for easy ways to improve it, raising taxes on the highest earners, and redistributing wealth downwards rather than upwards, would be a good place to start.

 

[robnisch]

Kleptocratic
And
Oligarchic
Sycophants

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump is very concerned about drugs. Pay no attention to the drug trafficker he pardoned.

Defense secretary says invading Mexico is ‘on the table’

Donald Trump’s brand-new secretary of defense spoke with Fox News’ morning crew Friday and said that invading countries such as Mexico is a very real option. “The drug cartels have been ...

www.dailykos.com

 

[lostone]

Trump is very concerned about drugs. Pay no attention to the drug trafficker he pardoned.

Defense secretary says invading Mexico is ‘on the table’

Donald Trump’s brand-new secretary of defense spoke with Fox News’ morning crew Friday and said that invading countries such as Mexico is a very real option. “The drug cartels have been ...

www.dailykos.com

Trump is concerned about power, and loves wielding it, to demonstrate how powerful he is .

 

[laughing dog]

Hell, during WWII our debt/GDP ratio is higher than is today.

I don't know from whom you are getting your ideas and analysis, but they are not consistent with our history or reality.

According to this: https://econofact.org/why-is-the-u-s-debt-expected-to-keep-growing

It is just about the same according to the graph.

During WWII, debt to GDP ratio exceeded 100%. The current one is below 100%.

But that was just after a major world war when we had spent huge funds on production capacity that we do not have now.

There is no doubt that US productive capacity is greater now that anytime in the past. Real GDP (output adjusted for inflation) has averaged about a 3% annual rate of growth since 1947. That implies a doubling every 24 years. Over 77 years that means around an 8 fold increase in productive capacity in the US.

The difference between then and now is not the productive capacity of the US but that of the rest of the world. WWII destroyed much of the productive capacity in the rest of the industrial world. The US had little competition.