What will be the October Surprise?

[Elixir]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely.

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

I assume this is sarcasm.

As usual you assume wrong:

Fox News host claims Hillary Clinton had a SEIZURE on camera in latest claim about her 'secret' health issues​

 

[Ford]

It's about his mental and general decline

… which you cannot identify. Maybe your shark batteries are running low. Or, did you break your Elton John record?

Let’s see a Biden quote or two that rivals … well, let’s take the last thing, or ANY thing Trump says, for sheer nonsensical dementia-speak.

You keep harping, but have nothing in reality to back you up, other than “just look at him!” FYI, that is not an example of anything.

Let's see them debate.

Yes, I know that it is performative, the candidates know the questions in advance, etc. etc. etc.

Yet we also know that Biden - despite his age - is disciplined and won't go much farther than a "come on, man" or "will you just shut up?"

For the last 4 years, Trump hasn't faced an interviewer that wasn't lobbing sycophantic softballs, or a crowd that wasn't adoring. He had to sit quietly in a courtroom for a couple few weeks, and that is instructive. That was a situation where he wasn't in control. He does not do well in these situations. He does not like to be challenged. The Biden camp knows this, and will prepare accordingly. Trump will be himself, and will likely throw out the notes that his staff prepares for him, if they even go that far.

Plus the first debate will be in the evening, and Trump doesn't seem to do as well in the evenings due to his schedule. I would be not at all surprised if he came up with an excuse to skip the debate.

 

[Elixir]

I would be not at all surprised if he came up with an excuse to skip the debate.

I would be EXTREMELY surprised if he did not.

 

[TSwizzle]

Hunter being convicted on paperwork fraud is not exactly the bottom Hunter Biden hit.

A little off topic, but Hunter still has to answer for his tax evasion charges in California. This will only add more wight to the heavy burden on his father. I wouldn't underestimate the stress these things can put on a person, particularly if that person is elderly. It could prove to be too much for Brandon.

 

[Ford]

I would be not at all surprised if he came up with an excuse to skip the debate.

I would be EXTREMELY surprised if he did not.

Or maybe...I imagine the conversation would go something like "oh yeah? Well you told me not to testify in my trial in New York, and I lost that! Why should I listen to you again? I'm gonna go to this debate and win!"

 

[Derec]

There are several countries that are rooting for the fascists to win in the November Election: Russia, Saudi, North Korea and Netanyahu's Israel are the most obvious, but probably also Turkey, Hungary and China. (China isn't quite as malicious as the other pro-Trump countries but still benefits strongly from the implosion of its major competitor.)

You think Israel is more malicious than China?

So how will malevolent players like Vladimir Putin (de facto political chief of the GOP) and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (who has Jared Kushner in his pocket) exploit their powers to help Trump in November? Intensifying their wars might backfire.

That's like saying the Ayatollah has the Squad and other fauxgressive Demcocrats in the pockets of his Islamic robes.

But one conclusion is clear: Americans are a stupid people

Antiamericanism - the socially acceptable form of bigotry.

and many will vote based on the price they paid last time they filled their gasoline tank. Russia and Saudi Arabia are (by far) the world's biggest petroleum exporters and can essentially dictate supply and price.

No, they can't. It is not that easy to manipulate oil prices, unless the entire OPEC+ plays ball.

The price of Brent crude is currently $82, down from $120 two years ago. I think we can count on a higher price in October.

The only reason oil and gas are relatively cheap is US fracking. US is now the biggest oil producer in the world, for example. Foreign oil/gas exporters have much to gain from the Squady Democrats who want to ban fracking and oil/gas pipelines in the US. They should be supporting President AOC. Or at least President Kamala.

And you get President Kamala by supporting Biden, not Trump.

 

[Derec]

There’s a significant probability that neither Trump or Biden will appear on the ballot this November.

But that’s not the definition of an October surprise.

I would think that there is a significant probability that at least one of them will not be in the run by this November, whether there is time time to remove their name from the ballot or not. But both? I think that is unlikely.

 

[robnisch]

There are several countries that are rooting for the fascists to win in the November Election: Russia, Saudi, North Korea and Netanyahu's Israel are the most obvious, but probably also Turkey, Hungary and China. (China isn't quite as malicious as the other pro-Trump countries but still benefits strongly from the implosion of its major competitor.)

You think Israel is more malicious than China?

So how will malevolent players like Vladimir Putin (de facto political chief of the GOP) and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (who has Jared Kushner in his pocket) exploit their powers to help Trump in November? Intensifying their wars might backfire.

That's like saying the Ayatollah has the Squad and other fauxgressive Demcocrats in the pockets of his Islamic robes.

But one conclusion is clear: Americans are a stupid people

Antiamericanism - the socially acceptable form of bigotry.

and many will vote based on the price they paid last time they filled their gasoline tank. Russia and Saudi Arabia are (by far) the world's biggest petroleum exporters and can essentially dictate supply and price.

No, they can't. It is not that easy to manipulate oil prices, unless the entire OPEC+ plays ball.

The price of Brent crude is currently $82, down from $120 two years ago. I think we can count on a higher price in October.

The only reason oil and gas are relatively cheap is US fracking. US is not the biggest oil producer in the world, for example. Foreign oil/gas exporters have much to gain from the Squady Democrats who want to ban fracking and oil/gas pipelines in the US. They should be supporting President AOC. Or at least President Kamala.

And you get President Kamala by supporting Biden, not Trump.

List of countries by oil production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Derec]

Robnish, it was a typo. I meant to write "now", not "not". My point is that US is the top producer now because of fracking/Shale revolution, and thus the interests of the likes of Russia and Iran would be well served by politicians like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and even Kamala Harris because they all want to ban fracking and otherwise hamstring US oil and gas production, e.g. by shutting down pipelines and not building new ones.

P.S.: When you are responding to a particular point, just quote that portion rather than the entire post.

 

[laughing dog]

The answer to the OP is the Cincinnati Red winning the World Series

 

[ZiprHead]

And you get President Kamala by supporting Biden, not Trump.

Said by the not-a-Trump-supporter.

 

[Derec]

Said by the not-a-Trump-supporter.

Fallacy of the excluded middle. Just because I am opposed to Kamala "there is no question that I am in favor of banning fracking and offshore drilling" Harris does not mean that I support Trump.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Said by the not-a-Trump-supporter.

Fallacy of the excluded middle. Just because I am opposed to Kamala "there is no question that I am in favor of banning fracking and offshore drilling" Harris does not mean that I support Trump.

In the upcoming election there is no excluded middle.

At least not in this universe.

 

[ZiprHead]

Said by the not-a-Trump-supporter.

Fallacy of the excluded middle. Just because I am opposed to Kamala "there is no question that I am in favor of banning fracking and offshore drilling" Harris does not mean that I support Trump.

We all see you said this:

And you get President Kamala by supporting Biden, not Trump.

 

[Swammerdami]

Said by the not-a-Trump-supporter.

Fallacy of the excluded middle. Just because I am opposed to Kamala "there is no question that I am in favor of banning fracking and offshore drilling" Harris does not mean that I support Trump.

Please. Your credentials may be called into question if you name the logic fallacies in English rather than Latin. I think you meant principium tertii exclusi.

But your claim contains its own fallacy -- "the fallacy fallacy", or rather argumentum ad logicam.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Said by the not-a-Trump-supporter.

Fallacy of the excluded middle. Just because I am opposed to Kamala "there is no question that I am in favor of banning fracking and offshore drilling" Harris does not mean that I support Trump.

In the upcoming election there is no excluded middle.

At least not in this universe.

Nah! One can vote Green or libertarian. Protest vote!

 

[Derec]

Please. Your credentials may be called into question if you name the logic fallacies in English rather than Latin. I think you meant principium tertii exclusi.

But your claim contains its own fallacy -- "the fallacy fallacy", or rather argumentum ad logicam.

Wrong. Zipr's argument was fallacious - criticizing Democrats like Kamala in no way implies I support Trump.

 

[Derec]

We all see you said this:

And you get President Kamala by supporting Biden, not Trump.

Reading comprehension fail. This means that oil exporters would prefer Kamala over Trump because she wants to ban fracking and offshore drilling. It does not mean I support Trump.

 

[Derec]

In the upcoming election there is no excluded middle.
At least not in this universe.

When it comes to voting for president, yes, there are only two realistic options. But that is only a limitation for the act of voting.
Not supporting Trump does not mean I must refrain from criticizing Democrats, even if they propose something idiotic such as banning fracking.

 

[Swammerdami]

Please. Your credentials as a pompous ass may be called into question if you name the logic fallacies in English rather than Latin. I think you meant principium tertii exclusi.

I leave being a pompous ass to you.

But your claim contains its own fallacy -- "the fallacy fallacy", or rather argumentum ad logicam.

Wrong. Zipr's argument was fallacious - criticizing Democrats like Kamala in no way implies I support Trump.

So you couldn't bother to Google argumentum ad logicam. Figures. The point is that whether Zipr's argument was sound or not has no effect on the fact that you are a Trumplicker.

Despite your protests your tunnel vision has become unmistakable. You defended John McCain -- whom I admire -- with a fallacy and refused to click the links I posted to refute your ignorance. The final straw was when you placed your Mayor of Alaska on a pedestal while denigrating Every.Single.Woman to the left of Sean Hannity.

Your attempts to denigrate Ms. Harris -- (are her shoes still upside down?) -- are stupid wastes of time. To paraphrase your own fellow Gingrich-licker Don Rumsfeld, we fight the fascists with the candidates we have, not the candidates we wish we had.