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Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

Sarpedon said:
I don't think that Trump really tops out at 33% of likely republicans. He's benefited as much as Cruz from the drop in Carson's fortunes.

I think the racist and religious factions of the republican party comprise about 60%-66% of the total, currently divided between Trump, Carson and Cruz. I think that is the ceiling for Trump, provided the other two are pushed out the way. The business and warhawk factions, "the so-called" establishment, comprise the rest. It is pretty clear that they are in the minority. For years they provided the brains of the party, while the other two provided the heft. Now however, they are the victims of their own strategy. By encouraging republicans to be suspicious of 'elite experts' and telling them that compromise is wrong and that someone is 'either for you or against you,' they have set up the situation where they have lost control over the bulk of their party, which regards them as the very sort of elite, compromising RINOs that they themselves trained the masses to be suspicious of.

I'm becoming convinced that labels such as 'moderate' simply don't apply. Sure, Trump has a variety of views that don't square with certain 'conservative' voter preferences, yet those same 'conservative' voters back him. This seeming contradiction has baffled a large number of so-called pundits, who can't understand how their lazy, short hand categories have misled them. It shows that these terms are useless. When one ceases to think of such terms as 'moderate,' 'liberal,' and 'conservative,' and instead look at the various voting blocs that comprise the parties, everything becomes clearer.
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But then we have candidates saying stupid shit like this:

"We have spent $4 trillion trying to topple various people that, frankly, ... if we could have spent that $4 trillion in the United States to fix our roads, our bridges and all of the other problems, our airports and all of the other problems we have, we would have been a lot better off -- I can tell you that right now.... "We have done a tremendous disservice not only to the Middle East -- we've done a tremendous disservice to humanity. The people that have been killed, the people that have been wiped away, and for what? It's not like we had victory. It's a mess. The Middle East is totally destabilized, a total and complete mess."
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It gets confusing sometimes.
 
Again, that's Trump castigating the 'establishment' wing of the party. No contradiction and no surprise, once you stop ASSUMING that republicans are all war-hawks, rather than being part of a coalition that includes war hawks. He can afford to be reasonable when pointing out the flaws of opposition factions. It doesn't signify to his racist base: as long as he keeps the red meat coming, the more he criticises the RINOs, the better. Trump's path to power is to dominate the susceptible parts of the party, and force the others to choose to either come along or jump ship. This is in contrast to the usual method, which has candidates try to get the nod from, or at least not alienate, each faction.
 
funinspace said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
The Libertarian Party, the Jehovah Witnesses of Politics.
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Wouldn't Scientology be a better fit? ;)
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I frankly think the Libertarian Party such as it is actually is simply a bunch of babes in the woods with no clue how much they are sheltered from harm by government actions and agencies that originated in the New Deal. To parallel them so JW or Scientology is to credit them with more ideology than they in fact have. What I find in Libertarian philosophy is a kind of faith that if we just eliminate the intimidating factors in government EGBOK. It is just total lameness and failure to recognize the environmental impact our society has had on the planet. It recommends that we have faith in the rightness of unbridled freedom in terms of competition and seems to welcome no holds barred. Government is more and more necessary with every passing month...and our environmental needs have grown to monstrous proportions under Libertarian ideals influenced Republicans. It amounts to a faith in the goodness of private enterprise no matter what it does. That is not an ideology. That is a religion.
 
hey guys! I got my Make America Great Again hat in the mail today!
 
ksen said:
hey guys! I got my Make America Great Again hat in the mail today!
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Where can I get one? You know, the Bernie bumper stickers come right off without a lot of trouble. I hope they also have bumper stickers. Then all I would need would be a beautiful picture of a city on a hill.:pigsfly:
 
And here's another great reason why Trump will win. Apparently 30% of GOP supporters think we should bomb Agrabah. 42% of Trump supporters do. You remember Agrabah, don't you? There were some strange flying objects that could be used as terrorist weapons to come out of there. Also some other strange weapons. And now the repubs think we should bomb it.

30% of GOP Voters Support Bombing Agrabah

SLD
 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Every poll since Trump said Muslims should be banned has him surging far past his previous highs. One poll in Iowa shows Cruz to be ahead, and even though others show this not to be the case, everyone is quick to say it's the end of Trump. Sorry. This nomination is all over but the shouting. I predict Trump will win. He might, might, lose Iowa. But all other polls show him sweeping New Hampshire, South Carolina, and then Florida. After that he is unstoppable.

SLD
 
SLD said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Every poll since Trump said Muslims should be banned has him surging far past his previous highs. One poll in Iowa shows Cruz to be ahead, and even though others show this not to be the case, everyone is quick to say it's the end of Trump. Sorry. This nomination is all over but the shouting. I predict Trump will win. He might, might, lose Iowa. But all other polls show him sweeping New Hampshire, South Carolina, and then Florida. After that he is unstoppable.

SLD
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I don't know. I think if he wins one of the early ones, you'll see a lot of the other candidates dropping out and making deals to settle on one non-Trump contender. Trump's support has a ceiling and the vote split between the rivals puts that ceiling above all of them.

The GOP is very much aware of what a disaster a Trump candidacy will be for them and all the rest are just waiting to be the one who benefits from the movement against him. Someone is going to start sending dump trucks full of cash to their houses in exchange for supporting someone else, though.

While I am still hoping for a Trump nomination simply for the humour value and the well-deserved damage it would do to the Republican party, I see the rest of them finding a way to stop it.
 
It not a Trump problem at all. Its an everybody else's "Oops I stepped on my tongue" again problem. R U kidding. Amnesty, an act of patriotism, carpet bomb them, Send in the troops, I can't remember the other one, balls out kinda campaigners. Republican fringe wants to blow up Congress and the Presidency. Way to go when we're facing, in their words, an existential threat.
 
Some of the also-rans such as Pataki haven't really tried to get on the ballots of some major states. That lower tier of candidates can't possibly win because of that. They are not going very far.
 
Trump's taking the GOP nomination will harm Republican fortunes for the foreseeable future, but not for good reason. Back when the Democratic Party embraced civil rights it knew it would suffer politically because it was alienating white supremacists throughout the south and across the country. But embracing civil rights was the right thing to do.

It'll be a while before we see a strong Republican Party.
 
joedad said:
Trump's taking the GOP nomination will harm Republican fortunes for the foreseeable future, but not for good reason. Back when the Democratic Party embraced civil rights it knew it would suffer politically because it was alienating white supremacists throughout the south and across the country. But embracing civil rights was the right thing to do.

It'll be a while before we see a strong Republican Party.
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I'd say, "Thank God." But I'm an atheist.

Nothing would make me happier than to see the Republican Party utterly destroyed by Trump. It deserves to go to the dustbin of history. It has turned into nothing but a hatemongering machine hell bent on war and kowtowing to the uber rich. Bill Maher was right about it, insanity isn't just a wing of the Republican Party, it's their core constituency.

SLD
 
Tom Sawyer said:
SLD said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Every poll since Trump said Muslims should be banned has him surging far past his previous highs. One poll in Iowa shows Cruz to be ahead, and even though others show this not to be the case, everyone is quick to say it's the end of Trump. Sorry. This nomination is all over but the shouting. I predict Trump will win. He might, might, lose Iowa. But all other polls show him sweeping New Hampshire, South Carolina, and then Florida. After that he is unstoppable.

SLD
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I don't know. I think if he wins one of the early ones, you'll see a lot of the other candidates dropping out and making deals to settle on one non-Trump contender. Trump's support has a ceiling and the vote split between the rivals puts that ceiling above all of them.

The GOP is very much aware of what a disaster a Trump candidacy will be for them and all the rest are just waiting to be the one who benefits from the movement against him. Someone is going to start sending dump trucks full of cash to their houses in exchange for supporting someone else, though.

While I am still hoping for a Trump nomination simply for the humour value and the well-deserved damage it would do to the Republican party, I see the rest of them finding a way to stop it.
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Every time some pundit talks about Trump's "ceiling" he breaks through it. First it was 20%. Then 30%. Now he's at 40%. Over in some polls. But any day he's going to top out and lose. Seems to me wishful thinking.

I ran into a Trump campaign worker the other day. He was very confident. Cocky really. He was sure Trump would win, and that he'd beat Hillary. He said Hillary would be indicted after her nomination and that would sweep the Donald into the White House. What a nightmare.

SLD
 
Yup, I don't see trump hitting his ceiling until Carson and Fiorina are gone. Then the question will be if he can dispose of Cruz. He can probably win the nomination without getting Cruz's people, but only by a narrow margin.
 
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