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Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

Cheerful Charlie said:
The real interesting question is, where is this all going as far as the general election? Will all this right wing crazy see a big hit on the GOP Senate and House control? Will Trumpsim eventually collapse or become a small indigestable rump ideology in the GOP that affects its politics for years to come? If Trump wins the GOP primary and loses to Clinton, then what? Can Trump survive Super-Tuesday? This may be the weirdest election cycle since the Know-Nothing era. Latest polls show Trump gaining. What would a defeated Trump do? Fade away or start some sort of new party or set up think tanks and start looking for candidaes to run for office?
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I think that the most interesting question in the upcoming election is what will happen with all the Senate, Congress, Governors and all that. Turn out in Presidential elections is higher because people come out to vote for the President and then end up voting for all the down-ticket candidates as well, generally for the same party that the President their voting for is from. While the question of who'll be the next President has already been answered, the question of what happens with everyone else is still very much up in the air.

The GOP has more Senate seats up for grabs next year than the Dems do and if decent sized swaths of the GOP electorate stay away, either because of a Trump candidacy or because of the lack of a Trump candidacy, the effects of this on GOP seats in the other races could be significant. I think that a Trump candidacy would be far worse for this, since he'd motivate a lot more people to come out and vote against him and thereby, for the most part, against other Republicans, than any of the other milquetoast also-rans who are his competition would.

It would be funny to see a debate between Clinton and Trump, though. If I were her, my main strategy would be to keep my answers brief and cede my time to him since the best thing that could be done to undercut Trump would be to just let him talk as much as possible.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
funinspace said:
Sure, this isn't a complete rerun of 2012. However, we can learn from history that people are not that honest (or just say shit to them) with pollsters. History does show that polls at this stage really haven't been shown to be very predictive when there isn't an obvious front runner of significance (and even then it sometimes doesn't work). We do see from a long historical record for both parties that outsiders (aka those with no significant political or military background) don't win major party primaries. All this suggests that Trump is still little more than bread and circus. It doesn't rule out him causing the Repugs a problem or such, but little strongly suggests that he will threaten the powers that be in the end...
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I think you have a point up to the point that one reason why Trump is winning is because there is no Romney or McCain in the race. There was Jeb, but he appears to be down for the count. Usually there is one guy that can weather a Trump like candidate. I don't think we've seen something like this since Wallace.
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The 2012 Repug primary fight would have been interesting if Romney hadn't run ;) It is almost hard to remember that the 2008 Repug primary seemed almost 'normal'. Even Huckabee seemed within the norm back then. The most entertainment we got was RON PAUL RON PAUL RON PAUL. Well that and Fred Thompson's and Dennis Kucinich's very young wives...

Wallace who? I'm too young for that...
 
funinspace said:
fromderinside said:
Cruz is a new species he's neither Caucasian nor Hispanic. He's Crustacean, a multi-clawed beast that takes everything into his maw.
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I almost didn't recognize him :D
View attachment 5000
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I don't get it. Is the coconut supposed to represent Florida and Cruz is bragging about how he's destroying Bush in the polls?

Do the orange hairs on the coconut mean it's supposed to be Trump and Cruz is gloating about how he's starting to beat him in the polls?

I'm not clear about what it is that the Cruz campaign is going for with this advertisement.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
funinspace said:
I almost didn't recognize him :D
View attachment 5000
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I don't get it. Is the coconut supposed to represent Florida and Cruz is bragging about how he's destroying Bush in the polls?

Do the orange hairs on the coconut mean it's supposed to be Trump and Cruz is gloating about how he's starting to beat him in the polls?

I'm not clear about what it is that the Cruz campaign is going for with this advertisement.
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It is about Carnival Cruz capturing the nutter vote with a fake Trump hair piece stitched upon a coconut...
 
funinspace said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
I think you have a point up to the point that one reason why Trump is winning is because there is no Romney or McCain in the race. There was Jeb, but he appears to be down for the count. Usually there is one guy that can weather a Trump like candidate. I don't think we've seen something like this since Wallace.
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The 2012 Repug primary fight would have been interesting if Romney hadn't run ;) It is almost hard to remember that the 2008 Repug primary seemed almost 'normal'. Even Huckabee seemed within the norm back then. The most entertainment we got was RON PAUL RON PAUL RON PAUL. Well that and Fred Thompson's and Dennis Kucinich's very young wives...
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Fred Thompson's run for President were the most memorable two weeks of my life.

Wallace who? I'm too young for that...
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I'm too younger for that myself. It was the last time a complete fuck nut took electoral votes in an election.
 
laughing dog said:
In today's Minneapolis Star Tribune there is an article about a GOP brokered convention (http://www.startribune.com/gop-powe...ed-path-to-offer-trump-alternative/361513161/). The GOP bigwigs are sure Trump is un-electable in a general election and they are scared of him getting the nomination. The GOP's embrace of the conservative loonisphere is coming back to bite them in their white asses big time. LOL.
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Just to repeat, they aren't afraid of Trump's general electability as much as his being so unelectable that it also brings down Republicans in the House and Senate races.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
laughing dog said:
In today's Minneapolis Star Tribune there is an article about a GOP brokered convention (http://www.startribune.com/gop-powe...ed-path-to-offer-trump-alternative/361513161/). The GOP bigwigs are sure Trump is un-electable in a general election and they are scared of him getting the nomination. The GOP's embrace of the conservative loonisphere is coming back to bite them in their white asses big time. LOL.
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Just to repeat, they aren't afraid of Trump's general electability as much as his being so unelectable that it also brings down Republicans in the House and Senate races.
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Don't be too sure of what you are saying. There is an awful lot that can be done by people like Trump. His money will buy acres of public relations and PR engineering as the campaign moves along. I feel I would really like to see him disappear from our political scene but he is stubborn man with kind of consistently racist line he could end up being viable to an electorate that the Republicans keep trimming of minorities with all kinds of state laws and purge efforts... and of course there are always the "voting" machines.

We need to understand that our electoral system is broken and it does not reflect the actual will of a majority of the people. In such an environment, electable can happen where it shouldn't.:thinking:
 
arkirk said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Just to repeat, they aren't afraid of Trump's general electability as much as his being so unelectable that it also brings down Republicans in the House and Senate races.
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Don't be too sure of what you are saying. There is an awful lot that can be done by people like Trump. His money will buy acres of public relations and PR engineering as the campaign moves along.
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Trump... change his image? He is a narcissist. He'd never do that.
I feel I would really like to see him disappear from our political scene but he is stubborn man with kind of consistently racist line he could end up being viable to an electorate that the Republicans keep trimming of minorities with all kinds of state laws and purge efforts... and of course there are always the "voting" machines.

We need to understand that our electoral system is broken and it does not reflect the actual will of a majority of the people. In such an environment, electable can happen where it shouldn't.:thinking:
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No, Trump is so unelectable and would cause large losses in the House and Senate (or at least as big as they can be with this polarized nation). He has said at least three or four things that would have derailed any other candidate. David Duke is probably thinking "I was a man before my time" right now.

Trump has insulted Hispanics, women, and Muslims. And while Muslims only represent 1 or 2% of the nation, women are a bit higher at about 54%. Trump can't take any minority by more than 25%, at most. If he can't win half the women and do decently among the minorities, he can't win. And as things stand, he has been so insulting, he'll take the Senate and possibly the House down with him, easily. You can only do so much with the angry white asshole demographic.
 
laughing dog said:
In today's Minneapolis Star Tribune there is an article about a GOP brokered convention (http://www.startribune.com/gop-power-brokers-eye-contested-convention-saying-they-need-path-to-offer-trump-alternative/361513161/). The GOP bigwigs are sure Trump is un-electable in a general election and they are scared of him getting the nomination. The GOP's embrace of the conservative loonisphere is coming back to bite them in their white asses big time. LOL.
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...-most-gop-voters-see-trump-winning-nomination

That possibility is mentioned here as well. Note the new poll, that over 70% of GOP voters now think he will in fact win the nomination. The establishment is going apeshit and really fears he is going to win.

SLD
 
ideologyhunter said:
Arkirk, ya said a mouthful!! Cruz is a deodorized Trump but just as toxic.
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Cruz is likely worse than Trump - if that is possible. For one, I think he actually believes the shit he says. I get the impression that Trump is just a blowhard and full of it and knows it. Cruz has promised to use nuclear weapons against ISIS. That is certifiably bat shit crazy. Utterly insane. I would refuse such an order. Trump just says he's going to bomb the shit out of ISIS - i.e. he's not planning on changing Obama's strategy, just use different words to describe it.

Cruz is also a tool of Wall Street Billionaire. He is bought and owned by Robert Mercer

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/416643/meet-ted-cruzs-billionaire-donors-eliana-johnson

I suspect that Cruz will not be able to appeal to the masses, and like Carson he will rise and fall while Trump stays atop. These trumpies do not like Wall street billionaires. They love trump because they see him as unbuyable by Wall Street since he's rich enough as it is.

SLD
 
SLD said:
ideologyhunter said:
Arkirk, ya said a mouthful!! Cruz is a deodorized Trump but just as toxic.
Click to expand...

Cruz is likely worse than Trump - if that is possible. For one, I think he actually believes the shit he says. I get the impression that Trump is just a blowhard and full of it and knows it. Cruz has promised to use nuclear weapons against ISIS. That is certifiably bat shit crazy. Utterly insane. I would refuse such an order. Trump just says he's going to bomb the shit out of ISIS - i.e. he's not planning on changing Obama's strategy, just use different words to describe it.
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Cruz is Iselin. He only became Tea Party to win a primary and he has been riding that wave. He is the Glenn Beck of the Senate.

The main difference between Trump and Cruz is Cruz is actually running for President. Trump still lacks things like a Platform.

Cruz is also a tool of Wall Street Billionaire. He is bought and owned by Robert Mercer

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/416643/meet-ted-cruzs-billionaire-donors-eliana-johnson

I suspect that Cruz will not be able to appeal to the masses, and like Carson he will rise and fall while Trump stays atop. These trumpies do not like Wall street billionaires. They love trump because they see him as unbuyable by Wall Street since he's rich enough as it is.
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Cruz actually does sound a bit like Trump, but is more political in how he replies to questions about shit he has said, like making "the sand glow". Cruz is about as unelectable as Trump. The Republicans are truly being destroyed by a mess of their own making... and what is the most entertaining is that all the riling up of the base they've been doing since '08 has started galvanizing this lunacy among their base. Heck, even Limbaugh seems pro-Trump.
 
I heard a bit of Shean Insanitiy's long interview with Trump. Hannity fawned all over him. Trump managed to sound assertive without sounding utterly outrageous. I get the feeling Trump's interviews with people like Hannity are part of his draw. Trumps big stage act seems modelled after WWE Wrestmania trash talk.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
arkirk said:
Don't be too sure of what you are saying. There is an awful lot that can be done by people like Trump. His money will buy acres of public relations and PR engineering as the campaign moves along.
Click to expand...
Trump... change his image? He is a narcissist. He'd never do that.
I feel I would really like to see him disappear from our political scene but he is stubborn man with kind of consistently racist line he could end up being viable to an electorate that the Republicans keep trimming of minorities with all kinds of state laws and purge efforts... and of course there are always the "voting" machines.

We need to understand that our electoral system is broken and it does not reflect the actual will of a majority of the people. In such an environment, electable can happen where it shouldn't.:thinking:
Click to expand...
No, Trump is so unelectable and would cause large losses in the House and Senate (or at least as big as they can be with this polarized nation). He has said at least three or four things that would have derailed any other candidate. David Duke is probably thinking "I was a man before my time" right now.

Trump has insulted Hispanics, women, and Muslims. And while Muslims only represent 1 or 2% of the nation, women are a bit higher at about 54%. Trump can't take any minority by more than 25%, at most. If he can't win half the women and do decently among the minorities, he can't win. And as things stand, he has been so insulting, he'll take the Senate and possibly the House down with him, easily. You can only do so much with the angry white asshole demographic.
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Look, I don't resent you. In fact I used to think like you are thinking here, then I saw Nixon and Reagan and Dubbiya...all go all the way to political nirvana. These men should have never been president...but they were. It is a matter of simply being cautious about who I would disqualify out of hand. Trump's narcissistic act is keeping him in the lead in Repuglican land. Just wait till you see the campaign spots with shining cities on the hill with all the happy white people gathered around the new redhead president and his lifelong buddy Carson. I know how you feel and I feel the same, but our nation's politics are truly schizophrenic due to the judicious application of money by certain candidate handlers.
 
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