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Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

iolo said:
I fear that far more Americans than we ever thought are not only ignorant of the outside world but shit scared of it, as they are of the victims of their racist bullying. Bang-bangs and shitting bricks are no substitute for education, but they believe they can hide behind a laughable bully instead. Won't work.
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Based on my experience that's pretty accurate. As a rule, americans don't see themselves as players or equals, but as saviors and commanders. But not having resided in other countries, I can't really relate that observation. It's like when I visited Texas and went to the Alamo. Now that state has this kind of self reverence that makes me want to barf. Rather sickening actually.
 
joedad said:
iolo said:
I fear that far more Americans than we ever thought are not only ignorant of the outside world but shit scared of it, as they are of the victims of their racist bullying. Bang-bangs and shitting bricks are no substitute for education, but they believe they can hide behind a laughable bully instead. Won't work.
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Based on my experience that's pretty accurate. As a rule, americans don't see themselves as players or equals, but as saviors and commanders. But not having resided in other countries, I can't really relate that observation. It's like when I visited Texas and went to the Alamo. Now that state has this kind of self reverence that makes me want to barf. Rather sickening actually.
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And yet, you know, we all like the Americans we meet.
 
38% of hard core Republican likely primary voters.

So about 15%, maybe less, of likely voters.
 
joedad said:
untermensche said:
38% of hard core Republican likely primary voters.

So about 15%, maybe less, of likely voters.
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Which means the overwhelming majority don't like his message.
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But still a significantly large percentage do in a race where a few percentage points matter. If Clinton and the GOP candidate are having a close race in one of the swing states, 15% of the GOP voter base matters a lot. The candidate can't ignore them or actively campaign against their issues or a decent percentage of them will stay at home or vote third party. If he does cater to them or even not condemn them and implicitly support their positions, it will turn off another large percent and motivate others to come out and support Clinton just to stop him. They may be a minority, but they're a large enough minority to determine the results of the election if it happens to get close.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
joedad said:
Which means the overwhelming majority don't like his message.
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But still a significantly large percentage do in a race where a few percentage points matter. If Clinton and the GOP candidate are having a close race in one of the swing states, 15% of the GOP voter base matters a lot. The candidate can't ignore them or actively campaign against their issues or a decent percentage of them will stay at home or vote third party. If he does cater to them or even not condemn them and implicitly support their positions, it will turn off another large percent and motivate others to come out and support Clinton just to stop him. They may be a minority, but they're a large enough minority to determine the results of the election if it happens to get close.
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Everything of course changes when you get to a general election.

I don't know the exact figures but I think it is about 30% that will only vote for a Republican.

So every Democrat knows about 30% is lost no matter what they say.

It makes no sense to try to appeal to that group at all.
 
untermensche said:
Tom Sawyer said:
But still a significantly large percentage do in a race where a few percentage points matter. If Clinton and the GOP candidate are having a close race in one of the swing states, 15% of the GOP voter base matters a lot. The candidate can't ignore them or actively campaign against their issues or a decent percentage of them will stay at home or vote third party. If he does cater to them or even not condemn them and implicitly support their positions, it will turn off another large percent and motivate others to come out and support Clinton just to stop him. They may be a minority, but they're a large enough minority to determine the results of the election if it happens to get close.
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Everything of course changes when you get to a general election.

I don't know the exact figures but I think it is about 30% that will only vote for a Republican.

So every Democrat knows about 30% is lost no matter what they say.

It makes no sense to try to appeal to that group at all.
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OK, that's not in any way what I was talking about. It's the GOP candidate who will need to appeal to the Trump voters. They hate the mainstream GOP and, given their success so far in the primaries, they will need to be convinced not to stay at home in a huff if Trump isn't the candidate. The only way that can be done is to not totally reject Trump's positions. If they're just given lip service, a greater percentage of those voters will stay home. If they're given more than lip service, a greater percentage of the other GOP voters will stay home because they won't want to be associated with this candidate and a greater number of Democrats will bother to get up off of the couch to vote against him.

Many swing states come down to a few percentage points and there's no way to deal with the Trump bloc without turning off a decent percentage of your potential voters, so that makes a difference.

It's a moot point since the Presidential race isn't going to be close, but any potential GOP strategy for winning means picking up at the margins and having things break their way and they can't do that by turning part of their voter base off.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
untermensche said:
Everything of course changes when you get to a general election.

I don't know the exact figures but I think it is about 30% that will only vote for a Republican.

So every Democrat knows about 30% is lost no matter what they say.

It makes no sense to try to appeal to that group at all.
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OK, that's not in any way what I was talking about. It's the GOP candidate who will need to appeal to the Trump voters. They hate the mainstream GOP and, given their success so far in the primaries, they will need to be convinced not to stay at home in a huff if Trump isn't the candidate. The only way that can be done is to not totally reject Trump's positions. If they're just given lip service, a greater percentage of those voters will stay home. If they're given more than lip service, a greater percentage of the other GOP voters will stay home because they won't want to be associated with this candidate and a greater number of Democrats will bother to get up off of the couch to vote against him.

Many swing states come down to a few percentage points and there's no way to deal with the Trump bloc without turning off a decent percentage of your potential voters, so that makes a difference.

It's a moot point since the Presidential race isn't going to be close, but any potential GOP strategy for winning means picking up at the margins and having things break their way and they can't do that by turning part of their voter base off.
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Fair enough.

The Republican, as Romney found himself, will be trapped to an extent.

Forced to appeal in some way to the base.
 
untermensche said:
Fair enough.

The Republican, as Romney found himself, will be trapped to an extent.

Forced to appeal in some way to the base.
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Yes, it's a Catch-22 for them. They need to appeal to the base in order to be electable. However, appealing to the base makes them unelectable.

Given that I don't want Republican candidates elected, I like it that they have this problem and I like it that there isn't any apparent solution to this problem.
 
SLD said:
Just the nomination. Not the election.

View attachment 4983

This is the GOP. It is at its core, white and racist. Saying that Muslims will be thrown out of the country and made to wear an identification badge is exactly what they want to hear. Trump will be the nominee.

SLD
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I don't know. The sign says Jesus has something to do with Trump. If that association holds up, there may be more atheists and agnostics soon as Trump takes the tiller of the ship of state. Pretty frickin terrible!:thinking:
 
Huh, kind of odd how "Thank you Jesus" is one color and "Lord President Trump" is one color.

I'm sure it doesn't mean anything.
 
ksen said:
Huh, kind of odd how "Thank you Jesus" is one color and "Lord President Trump" is one color.

I'm sure it doesn't mean anything.
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Maybe it means the dude thinks Trump is a Sith Lord?


trump-boba.jpg
 
If you let the tea party take back its "T" what remains is what Trump is! An ass, can be described with the euphemistic term RUMP.
 
People can say whatever they want about Trump. But the election turnouts have been pitiful here because the Republicans run McCain/Romney establishment types and the Dems are going to put Lying Sack of Shit Clinton up for their candidate after 8 years of Hopey, Changey same old W shit Obama. The differences between the parties and candidates are negligible for most people, since they both run on wedge issues and feed their big money backers later.

So don't underestimate the power of a personality running when neither parties registered voters represent more than 25% of the population. A personality running as a third party could theoretically gain more votes than either party even if they had to band together to try and defeat them.
 
SLD said:
Latest ABC Washington Post Poll has Trump surging to 38% nationwide. Cruz is second but way, way behind.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1174a2GOPElection.pdf

SLD
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He is the Toddler Candidate. Not himself, but his supporters. The more the media speak negatively about (ie call him on his crap) and especially the more the RINOs like Boehner, Reagan, and Jesus speak out against him, the more they want it! These deluded fools think he will be the one to finally end the tyranny of Obama and the 'just as bad' RINOs. That the reason McCain lost in '08 and Romney lost in '12 is because they forgot who they were and weren't fighting the cause of the right.
 
ImGod said:
People can say whatever they want about Trump. But the election turnouts have been pitiful here because the Republicans run McCain/Romney establishment types and the Dems are going to put Lying Sack of Shit Clinton up for their candidate after 8 years of Hopey, Changey same old W shit Obama. The differences between the parties and candidates are negligible for most people, since they both run on wedge issues and feed their big money backers later.

So don't underestimate the power of a personality running when neither parties registered voters represent more than 25% of the population. A personality running as a third party could theoretically gain more votes than either party even if they had to band together to try and defeat them.
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Trump gave the Hispanics the middle finger, which pretty much makes it near impossible for him to win. He can't lose the Hispanic vote worse than Romney and hope that enough angry white dumbfucks go out an vote to make up the difference.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
untermensche said:
Fair enough.

The Republican, as Romney found himself, will be trapped to an extent.

Forced to appeal in some way to the base.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's a Catch-22 for them. They need to appeal to the base in order to be electable. However, appealing to the base makes them unelectable.

Given that I don't want Republican candidates elected, I like it that they have this problem and I like it that there isn't any apparent solution to this problem.
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There are problems with Hillary Clinton as well.

She and Jeb Bush can't help but give people nothing but visions of the past.

Bernie will have the people who hate "Socialists" against him, but they are Republicans anyway.
 
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