Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump... change his image? He is a narcissist. He'd never do that.

I feel I would really like to see him disappear from our political scene but he is stubborn man with kind of consistently racist line he could end up being viable to an electorate that the Republicans keep trimming of minorities with all kinds of state laws and purge efforts... and of course there are always the "voting" machines.

We need to understand that our electoral system is broken and it does not reflect the actual will of a majority of the people. In such an environment, electable can happen where it shouldn't.

No, Trump is so unelectable and would cause large losses in the House and Senate (or at least as big as they can be with this polarized nation). He has said at least three or four things that would have derailed any other candidate. David Duke is probably thinking "I was a man before my time" right now.

Trump has insulted Hispanics, women, and Muslims. And while Muslims only represent 1 or 2% of the nation, women are a bit higher at about 54%. Trump can't take any minority by more than 25%, at most. If he can't win half the women and do decently among the minorities, he can't win. And as things stand, he has been so insulting, he'll take the Senate and possibly the House down with him, easily. You can only do so much with the angry white asshole demographic.

Look, I don't resent you. In fact I used to think like you are thinking here, then I saw Nixon and Reagan and Dubbiya...all go all the way to political nirvana. These men should have never been president...but they were. It is a matter of simply being cautious about who I would disqualify out of hand. Trump's narcissistic act is keeping him in the lead in Repuglican land. Just wait till you see the campaign spots with shining cities on the hill with all the happy white people gathered around the new redhead president and his lifelong buddy Carson. I know how you feel and I feel the same, but our nation's politics are truly schizophrenic due to the judicious application of money by certain candidate handlers.

I understand the concern, but the Republican Candidates speaking out-ish against Trump is pretty much confirming my thoughts. They are scared Trump will take the whole thing down for the party.

 

[SLD]

Cruz is likely worse than Trump - if that is possible. For one, I think he actually believes the shit he says. I get the impression that Trump is just a blowhard and full of it and knows it. Cruz has promised to use nuclear weapons against ISIS. That is certifiably bat shit crazy. Utterly insane. I would refuse such an order. Trump just says he's going to bomb the shit out of ISIS - i.e. he's not planning on changing Obama's strategy, just use different words to describe it.

Cruz is Iselin. He only became Tea Party to win a primary and he has been riding that wave. He is the Glenn Beck of the Senate.

The main difference between Trump and Cruz is Cruz is actually running for President. Trump still lacks things like a Platform.

Cruz is also a tool of Wall Street Billionaire. He is bought and owned by Robert Mercer

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/416643/meet-ted-cruzs-billionaire-donors-eliana-johnson

I suspect that Cruz will not be able to appeal to the masses, and like Carson he will rise and fall while Trump stays atop. These trumpies do not like Wall street billionaires. They love trump because they see him as unbuyable by Wall Street since he's rich enough as it is.

Cruz actually does sound a bit like Trump, but is more political in how he replies to questions about shit he has said, like making "the sand glow". Cruz is about as unelectable as Trump. The Republicans are truly being destroyed by a mess of their own making... and what is the most entertaining is that all the riling up of the base they've been doing since '08 has started galvanizing this lunacy among their base. Heck, even Limbaugh seems pro-Trump.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/12/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa-poll/index.html

So Cruz is now ahead. But in Iowa. For now. Let's see if it holds New Hampshire or SC, where Tump still holds double digit leads. Or in three weeks.

SLD

 

[whichphilosophy]

In itself simply refusing Muslims entry into the USA wont achieve anything. As politicians speak, terrorists learn so we may well get fanatics posing as Jews or Christians by declaring this. Or new converts will not need to say they changed religion. Then the real witch hunt will start. No doubt Jews and Christians plus others will expect to be shaken down by their own government as happened in Germany in the hunt for Jews.

 

[angelo]

Just to repeat, they aren't afraid of Trump's general electability as much as his being so unelectable that it also brings down Republicans in the House and Senate races.

Don't be too sure of what you are saying. There is an awful lot that can be done by people like Trump. His money will buy acres of public relations and PR engineering as the campaign moves along. I feel I would really like to see him disappear from our political scene but he is stubborn man with kind of consistently racist line he could end up being viable to an electorate that the Republicans keep trimming of minorities with all kinds of state laws and purge efforts... and of course there are always the "voting" machines.

We need to understand that our electoral system is broken and it does not reflect the actual will of a majority of the people. In such an environment, electable can happen where it shouldn't.

Perhaps voting in presidential elections, or senate and congressional elections should be compulsory like it is here in Australia, where we get around 90% turn out at any government elections both federal and state. It would certainly be more democratic apart from being made to vote which perhaps is not so democratic, but a truer picture of voting intentions.

 

[iolo]

If Trump were ever to win, it would be extremely difficult for the quislings who run this Country for the Americans to keep going. Everyone here who doesn't hate the bugger is rolling around laughing at him - and at the fools who back him out of hysterical fear.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

In itself simply refusing Muslims entry into the USA wont achieve anything. As politicians speak, terrorists learn so we may well get fanatics posing as Jews or Christians by declaring this. Or new converts will not need to say they changed religion. Then the real witch hunt will start. No doubt Jews and Christians plus others will expect to be shaken down by their own government as happened in Germany in the hunt for Jews.

Could Donald Trump be a secret double-agent, sent by Democrats to destroy their party from within?

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who has borne the brunt of more than a few Trump barbs, seems to think there's a possibility.

"Maybe Donald negotiated a deal with his buddy Hillary Clinton," Mr Bush tweeted this week, after Mr Trump cited a poll showing his supporters would stick with him if he left the Republican Party. "Continuing this path will put her in the White House."

Is Donald Trump a Democratic secret agent?

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Ya, that's the funniest bit. Trump is working for the Democrats by saying things which are popular with Republicans.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Trump is stuck at 30%. Those saying he is the leader need to learn the difference between plurality and majority.

Moreover, he is not going to win over supporters of the other candidates. He is nobody's second choice, and he knows it. For every other candidate, they can be a second choice if some other candidate drops out. Not Trump. And Trump's followers can have a second choice. What Trump has is all he has.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Trump is stuck at 30%. Those saying he is the leader need to learn the difference between plurality and majority.

Moreover, he is not going to win over supporters of the other candidates. He is nobody's second choice, and he knows it. For every other candidate, they can be a second choice if some other candidate drops out. Not Trump. And Trump's followers can have a second choice. What Trump has is all he has.

But everyone else needs that 30%. Without catering to them, at least enough to stop them from staying home, there's no potential way for them to get into the White House. There's also no way to cater to them without turning off enough other voters that there's no way for them to get into the White House.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

You're over-estimating how much catering will have to be done to convince the Trump supporters to find a second choice.

Even Alvin Greene won 30% in the general.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

You're over-estimating how much catering will have to be done to convince the Trump supporters to find a second choice.

Even Alvin Greene won 30% in the general.

No. The Presidential election is done. Hillary wins.

The only question left is how much damage is done to the undercard in the Senate, Congress, etc.

 

[arkirk]

Fear and racism are still selling well in America. Trump is good at both.

 

[fromderinside]

Fear and racism are still selling well in America. Trump is good at both.

On my Trump Win meter fear makes him a Trump can win, just short of Trump should win which is just below SLD's Trump will win. I would hope America would be such that it would be Trump can't win or Trump won't win, but, I have moved him above Trump shouldn't win because of american fear and racism.

 

[arkirk]

Fear and racism are still selling well in America. Trump is good at both.

On my Trump Win meter fear makes him a Trump can win, just short of Trump should win which is just below SLD's Trump will win. I would hope America would be such that it would be Trump can't win or Trump won't win, but, I have moved him above Trump shouldn't win because of american fear and racism.

That's an interesting analysis. I am a Bernie supporter and of course I believe it would be tragic for the red headed clown to win...but look at what happens with every shooting in America of or by Muslims....Trump's numbers go up! He knows how to surf ride on any fear anybody else generates as well. Meanwhile back at the ranch, the Repugs are marshaling their motley crew of elites who got caught flat footed by Trump. Actually, the Repugs are always the most aggressive politicians especially when it comes to international relations. It was fear mongering plus elite and oil money that kept Dubbiya in office for eight years. If we had things their way, we would be at war with Iran and pull out of the Paris COP. All the Repugs have no problem killing people overseas and to them, collateral damage didn't count. Why should they care about what happens in the third world when they don't care about poor people in America. Clearly Trump SHOULD NOT WIN, but if he can jockey conditions a bit he COULD WIN.

 

[angelo]

Some time ago, during the john Howard years, all the polls were showing that the conservative government of Howard was heading for a landslide loss. Then a miracle occurred for them. Some refugees/ boat people were picked up at sea by a European freighter which was heading to Australia.
The Howard gov sent the navy out to stop it at sea in Australian waters. Howard told the media that "we decide who comes to Australia and in what fashion."
Illegal migrants would not be allowed to enter Australia. Within weeks the election was held and the Howard gov was elected with an increased majority. There's votes in then thar migrants!

 

[bilby]

Some time ago, during the john Howard years, all the polls were showing that the conservative government of Howard was heading for a landslide loss. Then a miracle occurred for them. Some refugees/ boat people were picked up at sea by a European freighter which was heading to Australia.
The Howard gov sent the navy out to stop it at sea in Australian waters. Howard told the media that "we decide who comes to Australia and in what fashion."
Illegal migrants would not be allowed to enter Australia. Within weeks the election was held and the Howard gov was elected with an increased majority. There's votes in then thar migrants!

Yup; Xenophobia and insane ranting about 'security' and border protection is always an effective way to gain popularity for an otherwise distasteful political platform. This was well understood back in the 19th century, and was applied very effectively in the 1920s and '30s in Europe - particularly, but far from exclusively - in Spain, Italy and Germany.

It's despicable; but yes, it does work.

 

[repoman]

 

[angelo]

Some time ago, during the john Howard years, all the polls were showing that the conservative government of Howard was heading for a landslide loss. Then a miracle occurred for them. Some refugees/ boat people were picked up at sea by a European freighter which was heading to Australia.
The Howard gov sent the navy out to stop it at sea in Australian waters. Howard told the media that "we decide who comes to Australia and in what fashion."
Illegal migrants would not be allowed to enter Australia. Within weeks the election was held and the Howard gov was elected with an increased majority. There's votes in then thar migrants!

Yup; Xenophobia and insane ranting about 'security' and border protection is always an effective way to gain popularity for an otherwise distasteful political platform. This was well understood back in the 19th century, and was applied very effectively in the 1920s and '30s in Europe - particularly, but far from exclusively - in Spain, Italy and Germany.

It's despicable; but yes, it does work.

If there were to be another islamic terrorist attack in the States any time soon, it's almost guaranteed that Trump would triumph.

 

[Crazy Eddie]

I swear I've seen that woman before.

Ya, that's Crazily Excited Woman #42. She's at all the political rallies which are worth being at.

Also known as "Crazy Edna." My little syster

Yup; Xenophobia and insane ranting about 'security' and border protection is always an effective way to gain popularity for an otherwise distasteful political platform. This was well understood back in the 19th century, and was applied very effectively in the 1920s and '30s in Europe - particularly, but far from exclusively - in Spain, Italy and Germany.

It's despicable; but yes, it does work.

If there were to be another islamic terrorist attack in the States any time soon, it's almost guaranteed that Trump would triumph.

In the primaries, certainly.

The problem is, Trump has no restraint in the crazy shit he says. His supporters eat it up, and he thinks it's gaining him national popularity when it's really just galvanizing him to the lowest of the low of the Republican party. Outside of that very small group of people, most of Trump's rhetoric leaves people appalled and disgusted.

He would, in other words, completely sweep to victory in the primaries and then get crushed in the national election. It would be hilarious and epic, but it would NOT be close.

 

[iolo]

I fear that far more Americans than we ever thought are not only ignorant of the outside world but shit scared of it, as they are of the victims of their racist bullying. Bang-bangs and shitting bricks are no substitute for education, but they believe they can hide behind a laughable bully instead. Won't work.