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Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

Adam Schiff just dropped an anvil on Biden.

I thought the shooting would put this to bed. Clearly not. Granted, Biden has had other opportunities to impress, and at best he has done good to very good.

Someone in some dark smoky room needs to make a decision, either Biden stays or goes... we can't be pussyfooting this!
 
Spacetime Inhabitant said:
Take the alleged Trump critical coverage. There is a lot of new material continuously that they could concentrate on, but it is either ignored or watered down, just reported on at best on one day, and/or buried on page ten or whatever.
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Can you cite specific examples of this?
 
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/17/biden-drop-out-presidential-campaign-bet-news

I read this in the NYTimes, but didn't want to use all of my remaining articles to share yet. it's in several publications. So, who is the doctor that's going to tell Biden he has a medical condition that means he should drop out?

President Biden said in a new interview that he would consider dropping out of the 2024 presidential race if a doctor diagnosed him with a "medical condition."

Why it matters: Biden is battling a growing chorus of Democratic lawmakers calling on him to step aside after his disastrous debate performance last month sparked renewed worries about his age and fitness for office.

  • The pre-taped interview with BET News is the latest in a series of media appearances the president has made since the debate to try and assuage concerns about his mental acuity.
  • The interview will air tonight at 10pm ET on BET. The cable network released excepts in advance of the broadcast.
The big picture: Asked what would make him re-evaluate his reelection campaign, Biden said he would do so "if I had some medical condition that emerged," according to an excerpt released by the network.

  • "If doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem," he added.
  • Biden also acknowledged that he had run for the presidency as a "transitional candidate" and that he had expected to "pass it on to somebody else."
  • However, he said he hadn't expected how divided the U.S. would become.
  • "There's more to do and I'm reluctant to walk away from that," he said.
Click to expand...
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Adam Schiff just dropped an anvil on Biden.



Someone in some dark smoky room needs to make a decision, either Biden stays or goes... we can't be pussyfooting this!
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In Australia we call them the faceless men.
Doesn't really work well or help much.

But yes a decision concerning Biden's future needs to be made and soon.
 
hurtinbuckaroo said:
pood said:
Biden has Covid. Maybe that explains his recent awful performances.
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I wish. But he’s already said he needs fewer things on his schedule after 8pm. He needs to withdraw a couple days after the Republican convention, to pull the spotlight off them.
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Yeah, I don't get the Democratic Party's strategy here. You don't try to compete with the other party when they're having their convention. Take the craziest speeches and turn them into campaign ads. What's that thing about never interrupting your enemy when they're making a mistake? Yeah.

Also, they've gotta know there was never going to be any way they could compete with Trump getting shot. It's a waste of resources for them to try. So now Biden has Covid. If nothing else, that will keep him from trying to prove he's competent for a week or so, and will make him do what he should have been doing for the last week. Shut up, and let them have the focus. Take the time off to reset. It's apparently a fool's errand to try and unify the party behind Biden (Jesus, Adam...did you really have to do this now?), so focus on what you can control moving forward.

Your candidate. Having him give interviews where he comes across as rambling ain't working. When he's well enough to get back to work, it's only speeches from here until the convention. Do everything you can to tamp down the calls for him to step down. Spend all that money you've got saved up on ads touting the administration's accomplishments. Bring back "are you better off than you were four years ago?" and "it's the economy, stupid," because voters are starting to realize that things are pretty good. Project 2025 is toxic, and Trump's attempts to distance himself have fallen flat, so make that your secondary front.
 
 
pood said:
Spacetime Inhabitant said:
Take the alleged Trump critical coverage. There is a lot of new material continuously that they could concentrate on, but it is either ignored or watered down, just reported on at best on one day, and/or buried on page ten or whatever.
Click to expand...

Can you cite specific examples of this?
Click to expand...
It is difficult to show when a news group has not done something. Anyway I don't have intimate knowledge of American newspapers and their websites. My statement is based on the general consensus from viewing many you tube commentators, and that this is typical of mainstream media (in both USA and Australia).

I have long supported Biden not stepping down, but with this Covid-19 diagnosis, I think this offers a perfect opportunity for him to withdraw with honour.
 
Pelosi has told Biden he cannot win. The latest state-by-state polling at electoral-vote.com are absolutely awful for Biden.
 
pood said:
Pelosi has told Biden he cannot win. The latest state-by-state polling at electoral-vote.com are absolutely awful for Biden.
Click to expand...
IMG_7003.jpeg


This is real clear’s overall poll of polls. Trump is doing better in the polls, but not so overwhelmingly as one would think, given all that has happened. Some polls show him having closed the gap, others not. I’m a bit skeptical these days of polls though as we no longer can effectively do random telephone polls. I certainly do not trust online polling. Or cell phone polls. In person might work?

I fear it’s too late for him to drop out. He should have done so late last year and opened it up to a variety of good alternatives.

I looked at the electoral-vote website, which I have normally liked. But I randomly looked at Maine. Nothings been done in Maine since April. Not exactly the best data to base it on.

I also looked at 270 to win’s website. They show it pretty much undecided for Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Biden still has a clear path if he can get PA, MI and WI. But he is now behind for sure.

One thing for certain is that it’s way too early to call it. Biden has had a string of bad luck lately. But he could rebound in the next few weeks and have several really strong appearances - especially at the convention. Expect trump to fuck up too. He can’t help it.

In the end, I think it’s too late for him to pull out absent a serious health scare as he indicated. COVID is not likely to slow him down for long. We know how to treat it now.
 
hurtinbuckaroo said:
pood said:
Biden has Covid. Maybe that explains his recent awful performances.
Click to expand...
I wish. But he’s already said he needs fewer things on his schedule after 8pm. He needs to withdraw a couple days after the Republican convention, to pull the spotlight off them.
Click to expand...
That is an interesting and potentially effective idea. The Dems would need a replacement immediately... again Harris is the strategic and most viable selection due to her existing proximity to being voted for in the Electoral College in 2020 and being the presumptive VP vote from the primaries (not that the primaries are done that way).

And in doing so that "quickly", it allows them to slip this in before Ohio sets their ballot. But this move would have to be unanimous and everyone is all-in on it, or this would just make it worse.
 
SLD said:
pood said:
Pelosi has told Biden he cannot win. The latest state-by-state polling at electoral-vote.com are absolutely awful for Biden.
Click to expand...
View attachment 46814


This is real clear’s overall poll of polls. Trump is doing better in the polls, but not so overwhelmingly as one would think, given all that has happened. Some polls show him having closed the gap, others not. I’m a bit skeptical these days of polls though as we no longer can effectively do random telephone polls. I certainly do not trust online polling. Or cell phone polls. In person might work?

I fear it’s too late for him to drop out. He should have done so late last year and opened it up to a variety of good alternatives.

I looked at the electoral-vote website, which I have normally liked. But I randomly looked at Maine. Nothings been done in Maine since April. Not exactly the best data to base it on.

I also looked at 270 to win’s website. They show it pretty much undecided for Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Biden still has a clear path if he can get PA, MI and WI. But he is now behind for sure.

One thing for certain is that it’s way too early to call it. Biden has had a string of bad luck lately. But he could rebound in the next few weeks and have several really strong appearances - especially at the convention. Expect trump to fuck up too. He can’t help it.

In the end, I think it’s too late for him to pull out absent a serious health scare as he indicated. COVID is not likely to slow him down for long. We know how to treat it now.
Click to expand...
Generally polls would be on the reddish side with his overall approval numbers, but trending in a better position. We are seeing the opposite, with a broad span of close but decidedly pink states in the battlegrounds.

I think one thing that scares the fuck out of the GOP is that Biden is trailing some candidates like Sen. Casey by 15 points! And that sort of number is just wickedly nuts. Biden can come back from 5 pts short, but 15 pts is out of the world. The Democrats are polling well overall. Get Harris in there and she should likely right the ship.
 
One other point. Generally speaking a president’s re-election is a referendum on his economic performance. The Rethugs are ranting about inflation, but in truth unemployment is at record lows and the stock market at record highs. Inflation hasn’t been all that bad. And now it’s coming down. I think it’s really more a matter of interest rates as those hit consumers the hardest. Yet the fed is poised to lower rates at their next meeting. That could seriously impact people’s pocket books soon. It could be enough to push Biden over the top.

Of course I fear Powell will want to support trump and not do that.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
SLD said:
pood said:
Pelosi has told Biden he cannot win. The latest state-by-state polling at electoral-vote.com are absolutely awful for Biden.
Click to expand...
View attachment 46814


This is real clear’s overall poll of polls. Trump is doing better in the polls, but not so overwhelmingly as one would think, given all that has happened. Some polls show him having closed the gap, others not. I’m a bit skeptical these days of polls though as we no longer can effectively do random telephone polls. I certainly do not trust online polling. Or cell phone polls. In person might work?

I fear it’s too late for him to drop out. He should have done so late last year and opened it up to a variety of good alternatives.

I looked at the electoral-vote website, which I have normally liked. But I randomly looked at Maine. Nothings been done in Maine since April. Not exactly the best data to base it on.

I also looked at 270 to win’s website. They show it pretty much undecided for Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Biden still has a clear path if he can get PA, MI and WI. But he is now behind for sure.

One thing for certain is that it’s way too early to call it. Biden has had a string of bad luck lately. But he could rebound in the next few weeks and have several really strong appearances - especially at the convention. Expect trump to fuck up too. He can’t help it.

In the end, I think it’s too late for him to pull out absent a serious health scare as he indicated. COVID is not likely to slow him down for long. We know how to treat it now.
Click to expand...
Generally polls would be on the reddish side with his overall approval numbers, but trending in a better position. We are seeing the opposite, with a broad span of close but decidedly pink states in the battlegrounds.

I think one thing that scares the fuck out of the GOP is that Biden is trailing some candidates like Sen. Casey by 15 points! And that sort of number is just wickedly nuts. Biden can come back from 5 pts short, but 15 pts is out of the world. The Democrats are polling well overall. Get Harris in there and she should likely right the ship.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of us will vote against trump no matter what. So I’m not sure exactly how Harris will motivate people to come out more so than Biden. Biden is popular with the base. I am not sure if Harris is. Maybe.

I’m not familiar with the Casey polling. I looked at 538’s site and there certainly is a mismatch. Casey is comfortably ahead and Trump is a bit ahead. Like I said, I am not a fan of modern polling.

I should quit my practice and go to Pennsylvania and just work in the campaign.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
SLD said:
pood said:
Pelosi has told Biden he cannot win. The latest state-by-state polling at electoral-vote.com are absolutely awful for Biden.
Click to expand...
View attachment 46814


This is real clear’s overall poll of polls. Trump is doing better in the polls, but not so overwhelmingly as one would think, given all that has happened. Some polls show him having closed the gap, others not. I’m a bit skeptical these days of polls though as we no longer can effectively do random telephone polls. I certainly do not trust online polling. Or cell phone polls. In person might work?

I fear it’s too late for him to drop out. He should have done so late last year and opened it up to a variety of good alternatives.

I looked at the electoral-vote website, which I have normally liked. But I randomly looked at Maine. Nothings been done in Maine since April. Not exactly the best data to base it on.

I also looked at 270 to win’s website. They show it pretty much undecided for Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Biden still has a clear path if he can get PA, MI and WI. But he is now behind for sure.

One thing for certain is that it’s way too early to call it. Biden has had a string of bad luck lately. But he could rebound in the next few weeks and have several really strong appearances - especially at the convention. Expect trump to fuck up too. He can’t help it.

In the end, I think it’s too late for him to pull out absent a serious health scare as he indicated. COVID is not likely to slow him down for long. We know how to treat it now.
Click to expand...
Generally polls would be on the reddish side with his overall approval numbers, but trending in a better position. We are seeing the opposite, with a broad span of close but decidedly pink states in the battlegrounds.

I think one thing that scares the fuck out of the GOP is that Biden is trailing some candidates like Sen. Casey by 15 points! And that sort of number is just wickedly nuts. Biden can come back from 5 pts short, but 15 pts is out of the world. The Democrats are polling well overall. Get Harris in there and she should likely right the ship.
Click to expand...
OK, I'm not understanding something. Why would Biden trailing Casey scare the GOP? And for the record, I had to google Sen. Casey to know who he is and where he's from. I may not be smart but I definitely am more informed than the average voter. So, that's a poll I would definitley not trust even if it was taken in PA.
 
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