2022 Midterm Elections - Results and Post Mortem

[ZiprHead]

Some Republicans Want to Raise Voting Age to Thwart Gen Z

“This new generation is totally brainwashed,” a Fox News commentator complained.

www.thedailybeast.com

Tuesday’s midterm election saw Gen Z come out strong for Democrats, including for their generation’s first U.S. representative: Maxwell Frost, a 25-year-old Democrat from Florida. The young blue bloc left Fox News personalities dismayed, with other conservative voices suggesting that the minimum voting age be raised from 18 (currently enshrined in the Constitution) to 21 or 28.

“The fact that these youth voters are coming in so strong in an off-year is very concerning,” Fox News commentator Jesse Watters lamented on Wednesday night. “It looks like they’ve been brainwashed. This new generation is totally brainwashed ‘cause a lot of these single women [who] vote 37 spreads for Democrats, are teaching all of our younger generation in these schools and they’re polluting their minds and then they grow up and they’re in their twenties and then they vote for leftists.”

Exit polling shows strong youth support for Democrats, typically on issues like climate change, reproductive rights, and guns. Voters aged 18-24 (all of whom fall into Gen Z) voted 61 percent for Democrats, while the 25-29 age group, some of whom are Gen Z, voted 65 percent blue, exit polls show.

Other conservative voices were less rosy on winning the youth vote. In a now-viral series of tweets, anti-Muslim activist Brigitte Gabriel suggested barring America’s youngest voters from the polls.

“Raise the voting age to 21,” Gabriel tweeted, immediately after noting that “We were promised a red wave and we got a red puddle.”

She went on to tweet that “Generation Z thinks doing drugs in the street should be legal. Generation Z also thinks speech that offends them should be illegal.”

Though Gabriel didn’t specify which drugs, a Gallup poll last year found that 68 percent of Americans (including 50 percent of Republicans) support legalizing marijuana. And despite a strong push by Republican legislatures to ban educational material about race and gender issues, Gen Z students overwhelmingly favor strong free speech rights, 2022 polling shows.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I thought the House going red was a foregone conclusion. Looking at the remaining races, I don't think the House is quite in hand for the Republicans. I wonder if the Magaheads thought it were. Oh boy. And so many undecided races in California. Boy oh boy.

 

[Copernicus]

I thought the House going red was a foregone conclusion. Looking at the remaining races, I don't think the House is quite in hand for the Republicans. I wonder if the Magaheads thought it were. Oh boy. And so many undecided races in California. Boy oh boy.

The problem for Democrats is that more of those undecided races involve incumbent Democrats than incumbent Republicans. So NBC is still predicting likely Republican control of the House by a margin of 1 to 7 votes. Of course, it is possible that Democrats will retain control by a margin of 1 to 5 votes (if I understand their +/-7 caveat correctly, because Republicans are currently ahead by 2).

 

[pood]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

 

[blastula]

They're not done counting in CO-03, so still a slight chance for Frisch.



Note that the non-military overseas votes tend to be heavily Dem.

 

[Elixir]

How many concussions has Fetterman suffered?

Newt Gingrich Defends Herschel Walker: ‘He Had a Lot of Concussions’​

 

[Metaphor]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)
and all the other presidents down to Truman are higher than Biden too.

 

[pood]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent, which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman. So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I said, to beggar belief or otherwise. Biden’s approval rating is roughly equivalent at an identical point in his presidency to all the people you mentioned above, except Carter, who, if you look a little way back, was lower than Biden on several occasions just prior to the most recent date registered. Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them. IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest. I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Fox News & Friends:

 

[Metaphor]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent,

Incorrect. Only Trump is higher by 'tenths of a percent'. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan were higher by 1.5 to 2 percentage points or more.

which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman.

I don't know when you measured that, but on day 661, Truman was 47.3%.

However, I don't think going back to the first half of the twentieth century makes much sense as a comparison anyway.

So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I

It was shockingly wrong and grossly misleading. Your wording "the same or higher" would apply only to Trump and Truman. And your grouping of all the other presidents as 'the same' so that you could rely on the Truman single data point and add 'or higher' is misleading.

Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them.

Your measure for 'equivalent to' is arbitrary, and your inclusion of 'or higher' misleads. In fact, a better way to phrase it would be "around or lower than every president at that point in time, with the exception of Truman".

IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest.

...what? I made a list of every President's ratings to show your numbers could not be right, and you accuse me of being dishonest?

I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

pood, I honestly though you were looking at disapproval ratings and had simply gotten mixed up looking at the graphs.

I can now see you intended the deception.

 

[pood]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent,

Incorrect. Only Trump is higher by 'tenths of a percent'. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan were higher by 1.5 to 2 percentage points or more.

which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman.

I don't know when you measured that, but on day 661, Truman was 47.3%.

However, I don't think going back to the first half of the twentieth century makes much sense as a comparison anyway.

So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I

It was shockingly wrong and grossly misleading. Your wording "the same or higher" would apply only to Trump and Truman. And your grouping of all the other presidents as 'the same' so that you could rely on the Truman single data point and add 'or higher' is misleading.

Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them.

Your measure for 'equivalent to' is arbitrary, and your inclusion of 'or higher' misleads. In fact, a better way to phrase it would be "around or lower than every president at that point in time, with the exception of Truman".

IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest.

...what? I made a list of every President's ratings to show your numbers could not be right, and you accuse me of being dishonest?

I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

pood, I honestly though you were looking at disapproval ratings and had simply gotten mixed up looking at the graphs.

I can now see you intended the deception.

Intended deception? On the latest measured day, to take one example, Reagan’s approval was 43.0 to Biden’s 41.5. That was day 661. I presume that is today. On day 637, however, just 24 days earlier, Biden is AHEAD OF Reagan. You can find the same dynamics going on with Clinton, Carter and Trump, to say nothing of Truman. This substantiates, not rebuts my point. All of these minuscule differences are within standard polling margins of error, which are typically around 3 percentage points, which means that on day 661, Biden mignt even be more popular than Reagan on the same day. Your imputing deception to me is itself dishonest, a deception that can only deceive stupid people who do not understand how polls work. My point is fully correct: Biden’s ratings are equivalent to, or better than, seven of the last 13 presidents at this stage of his presidency, which puts him in the norm.

 

[pood]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent,

Incorrect. Only Trump is higher by 'tenths of a percent'. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan were higher by 1.5 to 2 percentage points or more.

which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman.

I don't know when you measured that, but on day 661, Truman was 47.3%.

However, I don't think going back to the first half of the twentieth century makes much sense as a comparison anyway.

So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I

It was shockingly wrong and grossly misleading. Your wording "the same or higher" would apply only to Trump and Truman. And your grouping of all the other presidents as 'the same' so that you could rely on the Truman single data point and add 'or higher' is misleading.

Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them.

Your measure for 'equivalent to' is arbitrary, and your inclusion of 'or higher' misleads. In fact, a better way to phrase it would be "around or lower than every president at that point in time, with the exception of Truman".

IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest.

...what? I made a list of every President's ratings to show your numbers could not be right, and you accuse me of being dishonest?

I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

pood, I honestly though you were looking at disapproval ratings and had simply gotten mixed up looking at the graphs.

I can now see you intended the deception.

Intended deception? On the latest measured day, to take one example, Reagan’s approval was 43.0 to Biden’s 41.5. That was day 661. I presume that is today. On day 637, however, just 24 days earlier, Biden is AHEAD OF Reagan. You can find the same dynamics going on with Clinton, Carter and Trump, to say nothing of Truman. This substantiates, not rebuts my point. All of these minuscule differences are within standard polling margins of error, which are typically around 3 percentage points, which means that on day 661, Biden mignt even be more popular than Reagan on the same day. Your imputing deception to me is itself dishonest, a deception that can only deceive stupid people who do not understand how polls work. My point is fully correct: Biden’s ratings are equivalent to, or better than, seven of the last 13 presidents at this stage of his presidency, which puts him in the norm.

Your phrasing is misleading and deceptive for all the reasons I've already pointed out.

No, you have pointed out no such reasons, because there are none to point out. In the post you just quoted, I explained to you how a difference of 43.0 to 41.5 is statistically meaningless. From the point of view of the science of polling, Reagan and Biden on day 661 are TIED in popularity. They are also tied on day 637, when Biden was ahead of Reagan by a tiny margin. This is how polling works. Everything I said is perfectly correct, and your attempt to impute dishonesty to me is itself dishonest, but that is par for the course with you.

 

[Toni]

However, I don't seem to be the only person with this problem and so I think that perhaps you might consider that your meaning is not conveyed as well as you believe it is and stop taking offense when someone misunderstands or misinterprets you.

It certainly seems to me that the people who 'misunderstand' my posts all have the same ideological basis. I wonder if that's a coincidence.

Your earlier assertion in this thread (paraphrasing here) that you might infer from ld's post that Americans have no standards for which they determine what makes an effective Senator seems, at first reading to be meant with no sarcasm or irony.

In fact, the comment isn't about Americans at all. It's a dig at laughing dog.

I would have taken it at face value as well. If that, however, is not how you intended it to be interpreted, you could correct the impression LD had of your typed words and simply say; Sorry, I meant that in an ironical or in a sarcastic or whatever fits way. It would help people learn to understand when you type words how you intend for them to be taken. Here, you are saying that it was just a figure of speech. There are other instances when you refuse to accept that some other poster is merely employing a figure of speech---which sort of implies that you do not employ figures of speech.

When have I 'refused' to accept a figure of speech simply because it was a figure of speech?

Nothing I've written here is intended as any kind of attack on you or your writing style. I'm just hoping to find a way so that what you type is understood in the way you intended by everyone who reads it. Just as I hope people understand what I write in the way I intend them to understand it. And for those times when things are not understood as the writer intended, that different interpretations or meanings or implications are pointed out as an addition to the discussion and not as a discussion of the merits of one person's writing style vs another. I like to be understood and I am assuming everyone also wants to be understood as well.

What would help considerably is if people actually acknowledged when I correct their misperceptions, even if the misperceptions arose because of an alleged deficit in my communication.

It would also help if you could manage to acknowledge fair points made by others you disagree with.

As for your claim that misunderstandings are only because of ideological differences:

I often sharply disagree with Derec. He and I sometimes split hairs pretty finely but there really is not much disagreement about what the other meant, or claims of misperceptions. The same goes with Loren—he and I often really disagree. Rhea, who is probably more on the sane side of any right/left ideological divide as I am do disagree from time to time. Bilby and I can bicker like siblings.

With all of these fellow posters, if a point or statement isn’t clear, we manage to clear it up without making the thread about how words mean only what the person who wrote them thinks they mean in the particular circumstance, date, time they are talking about.

 

[repoman]

Kari Lake seems to me to be using testosterone and high quality cocaine.

 

[Metaphor]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent,

Incorrect. Only Trump is higher by 'tenths of a percent'. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan were higher by 1.5 to 2 percentage points or more.

which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman.

I don't know when you measured that, but on day 661, Truman was 47.3%.

However, I don't think going back to the first half of the twentieth century makes much sense as a comparison anyway.

So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I

It was shockingly wrong and grossly misleading. Your wording "the same or higher" would apply only to Trump and Truman. And your grouping of all the other presidents as 'the same' so that you could rely on the Truman single data point and add 'or higher' is misleading.

Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them.

Your measure for 'equivalent to' is arbitrary, and your inclusion of 'or higher' misleads. In fact, a better way to phrase it would be "around or lower than every president at that point in time, with the exception of Truman".

IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest.

...what? I made a list of every President's ratings to show your numbers could not be right, and you accuse me of being dishonest?

I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

pood, I honestly though you were looking at disapproval ratings and had simply gotten mixed up looking at the graphs.

I can now see you intended the deception.

Intended deception? On the latest measured day, to take one example, Reagan’s approval was 43.0 to Biden’s 41.5. That was day 661. I presume that is today. On day 637, however, just 24 days earlier, Biden is AHEAD OF Reagan. You can find the same dynamics going on with Clinton, Carter and Trump, to say nothing of Truman. This substantiates, not rebuts my point. All of these minuscule differences are within standard polling margins of error, which are typically around 3 percentage points, which means that on day 661, Biden mignt even be more popular than Reagan on the same day. Your imputing deception to me is itself dishonest, a deception that can only deceive stupid people who do not understand how polls work. My point is fully correct: Biden’s ratings are equivalent to, or better than, seven of the last 13 presidents at this stage of his presidency, which puts him in the norm.

Your phrasing is misleading and deceptive for all the reasons I've already pointed out.

No, you have pointed out no such reasons, because there are none to point out. In the post you just quoted, I explained to you how a difference of 43.0 to 41.5 is statistically meaningless.

You didn't explain it. You asserted it. Whether or not it is statistically "meaningless" depends on the confidence interval constructed around each estimate, and whether they overlap.

From the point of view of the science of polling, Reagan and Biden on day 661 are TIED in popularity. They are also tied on day 637, when Biden was ahead of Reagan by a tiny margin. This is how polling works. Everything I said is perfectly correct, and your attempt to impute dishonesty to me is itself dishonest, but that is par for the course with you.

No. Your framing was grossly dishonest and I gave you an example of more honest framing.

You also claimed:

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term.

42% approval rating, about the same as Trump had, is not popular. I don't recall a single article calling Biden's unpopularity "unprecedented".

 

[Metaphor]

However, I don't seem to be the only person with this problem and so I think that perhaps you might consider that your meaning is not conveyed as well as you believe it is and stop taking offense when someone misunderstands or misinterprets you.

It certainly seems to me that the people who 'misunderstand' my posts all have the same ideological basis. I wonder if that's a coincidence.

Your earlier assertion in this thread (paraphrasing here) that you might infer from ld's post that Americans have no standards for which they determine what makes an effective Senator seems, at first reading to be meant with no sarcasm or irony.

In fact, the comment isn't about Americans at all. It's a dig at laughing dog.

I would have taken it at face value as well. If that, however, is not how you intended it to be interpreted, you could correct the impression LD had of your typed words and simply say; Sorry, I meant that in an ironical or in a sarcastic or whatever fits way. It would help people learn to understand when you type words how you intend for them to be taken. Here, you are saying that it was just a figure of speech. There are other instances when you refuse to accept that some other poster is merely employing a figure of speech---which sort of implies that you do not employ figures of speech.

When have I 'refused' to accept a figure of speech simply because it was a figure of speech?

Nothing I've written here is intended as any kind of attack on you or your writing style. I'm just hoping to find a way so that what you type is understood in the way you intended by everyone who reads it. Just as I hope people understand what I write in the way I intend them to understand it. And for those times when things are not understood as the writer intended, that different interpretations or meanings or implications are pointed out as an addition to the discussion and not as a discussion of the merits of one person's writing style vs another. I like to be understood and I am assuming everyone also wants to be understood as well.

What would help considerably is if people actually acknowledged when I correct their misperceptions, even if the misperceptions arose because of an alleged deficit in my communication.

It would also help if you could manage to acknowledge fair points made by others you disagree with.

I will not "acknowledge" falsehoods, like the multiple falsehoods leveled at me in this thread.

As for your claim that misunderstandings are only because of ideological differences:

Not "only" because of that. I did not say that.

I often sharply disagree with Derec. He and I sometimes split hairs pretty finely but there really is not much disagreement about what the other meant, or claims of misperceptions. The same goes with Loren—he and I often really disagree. Rhea, who is probably more on the sane side of any right/left ideological divide as I am do disagree from time to time. Bilby and I can bicker like siblings.

With all of these fellow posters, if a point or statement isn’t clear, we manage to clear it up without making the thread about how words mean only what the person who wrote them thinks they mean in the particular circumstance, date, time they are talking about.

I tried to clear it up. I have multiple times told people the inferences they've drawn are wrong.

 

[pood]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent,

Incorrect. Only Trump is higher by 'tenths of a percent'. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan were higher by 1.5 to 2 percentage points or more.

which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman.

I don't know when you measured that, but on day 661, Truman was 47.3%.

However, I don't think going back to the first half of the twentieth century makes much sense as a comparison anyway.

So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I

It was shockingly wrong and grossly misleading. Your wording "the same or higher" would apply only to Trump and Truman. And your grouping of all the other presidents as 'the same' so that you could rely on the Truman single data point and add 'or higher' is misleading.

Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them.

Your measure for 'equivalent to' is arbitrary, and your inclusion of 'or higher' misleads. In fact, a better way to phrase it would be "around or lower than every president at that point in time, with the exception of Truman".

IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest.

...what? I made a list of every President's ratings to show your numbers could not be right, and you accuse me of being dishonest?

I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

pood, I honestly though you were looking at disapproval ratings and had simply gotten mixed up looking at the graphs.

I can now see you intended the deception.

Intended deception? On the latest measured day, to take one example, Reagan’s approval was 43.0 to Biden’s 41.5. That was day 661. I presume that is today. On day 637, however, just 24 days earlier, Biden is AHEAD OF Reagan. You can find the same dynamics going on with Clinton, Carter and Trump, to say nothing of Truman. This substantiates, not rebuts my point. All of these minuscule differences are within standard polling margins of error, which are typically around 3 percentage points, which means that on day 661, Biden mignt even be more popular than Reagan on the same day. Your imputing deception to me is itself dishonest, a deception that can only deceive stupid people who do not understand how polls work. My point is fully correct: Biden’s ratings are equivalent to, or better than, seven of the last 13 presidents at this stage of his presidency, which puts him in the norm.

Your phrasing is misleading and deceptive for all the reasons I've already pointed out.

No, you have pointed out no such reasons, because there are none to point out. In the post you just quoted, I explained to you how a difference of 43.0 to 41.5 is statistically meaningless.

You didn't explain it. You asserted it. Whether or not it is statistically "meaningless" depends on the confidence interval constructed around each estimate, and whether they overlap.

From the point of view of the science of polling, Reagan and Biden on day 661 are TIED in popularity. They are also tied on day 637, when Biden was ahead of Reagan by a tiny margin. This is how polling works. Everything I said is perfectly correct, and your attempt to impute dishonesty to me is itself dishonest, but that is par for the course with you.

No. Your framing was grossly dishonest and I gave you an example of more honest framing.

You also claimed:

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term.

42% approval rating, about the same as Trump had, is not popular. I don't recall a single article calling Biden's unpopularity "unprecedented".

You really are making yourself look grossly dishonest, and like an idiot to boot. Any pollster will tell you that there is no statistically significant difference between 43.0 and 41.5 percent popularity. All polls are built around the assumption of a 3-point margin of error either way. Besides, even if there were a statistically significant difference, only a very disingenuous person, to put it charitably, would conclude that Reagan, at 43.0 percent popularity on day 661, was notably more popular than Biden at 41.5 percent. Finally, you have ignored the point I made about trendlines. Day 661 is a snapshot of a particular day in which Reagan had a (statistically insignificant) 1.5 percent lead on Biden. But go back a few days earlier, as I noted and you ignored, the situation is reversed. These trendlines, with Biden ahead some days and the other presidents ahead on others, hold for Biden vs. Trump, Clinton, Carter, Reagan, Ford, and Truman, at least, and his percentages on any given day are not far below Obama. Your whole argument is dishonest crap and everything I stated is correct and honestly put.

 

[Metaphor]

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term. It turns out that all of this was BS. Systematic polling of this sort has been kept for the last 13 presidents before Biden, dating to Harry Truman. It turns out that Biden’s approval rating is equivalent to, or even better than, fully seven of those 13 presidents, and not far below an eighth. It’s even about the same as the popularity of the the GOP’s sainted Ronny Ray Gun at a similar stage in his presidency. See here.

What?

@Elixir @Toni @Copernicus did any one of you bother to verify pood's claim?

It's so shockingly wrong it beggars belief.

Today (with the limitation that I can't see a way to make the movements on the web page finer so as to get right to the edge of the approval tracking and might be slightly off), the approval ratings (day 661 of a Presidency are as follows)

Biden 41.5%
Trump 41.8% (higher than Biden)
Obama 44.6% (higher than Biden)
W. Bush 62.6% (higher than Biden)
Clinton 43.8% (higher than Biden)
H.W. Bush 52.7% (higher than Biden)
Reagan 43.0% (higher than Biden)
Carter 49.0% (higher than Biden)

Yes, higher than Biden in the case of Trump, Obama, Clinton and Reagan by minuscule tenths of a percent,

Incorrect. Only Trump is higher by 'tenths of a percent'. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan were higher by 1.5 to 2 percentage points or more.

which as any pollster will tell you is easily within the margin of error. As noted, Biden is higher in one case, beating Harry Truman.

I don't know when you measured that, but on day 661, Truman was 47.3%.

However, I don't think going back to the first half of the twentieth century makes much sense as a comparison anyway.

So there is nothihg ”shockingly wrong” about what I

It was shockingly wrong and grossly misleading. Your wording "the same or higher" would apply only to Trump and Truman. And your grouping of all the other presidents as 'the same' so that you could rely on the Truman single data point and add 'or higher' is misleading.

Moreover, I said that Biden was equivalent to, or higher than, SEVEN of the previous thirteen presidents, not ALL of them.

Your measure for 'equivalent to' is arbitrary, and your inclusion of 'or higher' misleads. In fact, a better way to phrase it would be "around or lower than every president at that point in time, with the exception of Truman".

IOW, his popularity for this stage in his presidency is roughly the average. Since I said that SIX of the presidents had better approval ratings, your throwing in the two Bushes is just dishonest.

...what? I made a list of every President's ratings to show your numbers could not be right, and you accuse me of being dishonest?

I never claimed Biden had higher ratings than them at this stage of their presidencies. So what exactly is your problem here? Is it a cognitive defict that inhibits you from reading and comprehending properly?

pood, I honestly though you were looking at disapproval ratings and had simply gotten mixed up looking at the graphs.

I can now see you intended the deception.

Intended deception? On the latest measured day, to take one example, Reagan’s approval was 43.0 to Biden’s 41.5. That was day 661. I presume that is today. On day 637, however, just 24 days earlier, Biden is AHEAD OF Reagan. You can find the same dynamics going on with Clinton, Carter and Trump, to say nothing of Truman. This substantiates, not rebuts my point. All of these minuscule differences are within standard polling margins of error, which are typically around 3 percentage points, which means that on day 661, Biden mignt even be more popular than Reagan on the same day. Your imputing deception to me is itself dishonest, a deception that can only deceive stupid people who do not understand how polls work. My point is fully correct: Biden’s ratings are equivalent to, or better than, seven of the last 13 presidents at this stage of his presidency, which puts him in the norm.

Your phrasing is misleading and deceptive for all the reasons I've already pointed out.

No, you have pointed out no such reasons, because there are none to point out. In the post you just quoted, I explained to you how a difference of 43.0 to 41.5 is statistically meaningless.

You didn't explain it. You asserted it. Whether or not it is statistically "meaningless" depends on the confidence interval constructed around each estimate, and whether they overlap.

From the point of view of the science of polling, Reagan and Biden on day 661 are TIED in popularity. They are also tied on day 637, when Biden was ahead of Reagan by a tiny margin. This is how polling works. Everything I said is perfectly correct, and your attempt to impute dishonesty to me is itself dishonest, but that is par for the course with you.

No. Your framing was grossly dishonest and I gave you an example of more honest framing.

You also claimed:

One of the interesting things about this election is how the media, polilticians and other poobahs kept blathering about how unpopular Joe Biden was, how his unpopularity was even unprecedented for a president at this stage in his first term.

42% approval rating, about the same as Trump had, is not popular. I don't recall a single article calling Biden's unpopularity "unprecedented".

You really are making yourself look grossly dishonest, and like an idiot to boot. Any pollster will tell you that

Stop. Your appeal to "any pollster" is meaningless. You have not produced the confidence intervals on the polls because each of them have different margins of error.

there is no statistically significant difference between 43.0 and 41.5 percent popularity.

Whether there is a statistically significant difference depends on the precision of the poll.

All polls are built around the assumption of a 3-point margin of error either way.

A poll has the precision that the pollsters decided. Polls are carried out by different organisations. The sampling error and non-sampling error will differ between polls.

Besides, even if there were a statistically significant difference, only a very disingenuous person, to put it charitably, would conclude that Reagan, at 43.0 percent popularity on day 661, was notably more popular than Biden at 41.5 percent.

I didn't make any such call, let alone use the term "notably".

Finally, you have ignored the point I made about trendlines. Day 661 is a snapshot of a particular day in which Reagan had a (statistically insignificant) 1.5 percent lead on Biden. But go back a few days earlier, as I noted and you ignored, the situation is reversed.

I haven't ignored anything. I'm posting from my phone which makes responding to your Gish gallop difficult. I will address "trendlines" later.

These trendlines, with Biden ahead some days and the other presidents ahead on others, hold for Biden vs. Trump, Clinton, Carter, Reagan, Ford, and Truman, at least, and his percentages on any given day are not far below Obama. Your whole argument is dishonest crap and everything I stated is correct and honestly put.

Nothing you stated in that post was honest, and I have not made a single misstatement, let alone "dishonest crap".

 

[pood]

Besides, even if there were a statistically significant difference, only a very disingenuous person, to put it charitably, would conclude that Reagan, at 43.0 percent popularity on day 661, was notably more popular than Biden at 41.5 percent.

I didn't make any such call, let alone use the term "notably".

This is precisely why talking to you is a waste of time. Of COURSE you IMPLIED that there was a significant popularity difference between Reagan’s 43.0 and Biden’s 41.5, which is preicsley why you characterized me as grossly dishonest for my characterization of Biden’s popularity relative to other presidents. Now you are backtracking, while having the gall to accuse me of Gish Galloping! You do this crap all the time. On every subject you slide around like a weasel in a pan of oil, your fatuous lucubrations on John Fetterman an exemplar of your behavior.

My point stands unrefuted. Biden’s popularity for this stage in his tenure in office is roughly equivalent to or above fully seven of the last 13 presidents. Anyone can consult the data contained in the link I posted and see that this is so. I have no interest in further responding to your dishonest blather on this subject.

 

[Copernicus]

NBC has called it. Democrats retain control of the Senate, no matter what happens in the Georgia runoff.

Democrats maintain control of Senate, NBC News projects, defeating many Trump-backed Republicans​