Biden losing in swing states

[SLD]

Swing-State Polling Shows Biden Trails Trump in 2024 Battleground States

Biden has no advantage across key 2024 battleground states, where half say “Bidenomics” is bad for the economy

pro.morningconsult.com

I don’t like to be pessimistic this far out. Today’s economic news is good, GDP is really growing. But it is not translating into support for Biden. Inflation seems to have trumped growth, or at least that’s the appearance. Only Nevada seems likely to stay in the Blue column.

Trump remains the Teflon don. Nothing seems to make a dent in his popularity. A conviction won’t make a difference.

I still say that one of the main reasons for this low polling is a basic refusal by the democrats to go negative. Biden trying to tout his economic progress, even if real, isn’t going to make a difference. Instead they Dems need to go on the attack and viciously so. It may turn off some voters, but it will rally the base.

 

[jonatha]

Pollster Ratings - Morning Consult

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Morning Consult gets a B-, and that's for polls within 21 days of an election. Polls at this point are essentially random...

 

[TomC]

Pollster Ratings - Morning Consult

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Morning Consult gets a B-, and that's for polls within 21 days of an election. Polls at this point are essentially random...

That's kinda how I see it.

A month before the 2016 election, Clinton was running around 80% likely to win. We all know how that ended. This is over a year out. Economic situation continues to improve, indictments turn into convictions, potential nominees for the GOP ticket ramp up...

Lots will change in a year.

Tom

 

[Politesse]

Trump remains the Teflon don. Nothing seems to make a dent in his popularity. A conviction won’t make a difference.

That's what Nixon got wrong. He thought he had to pretend not to be a crook. But voice of the rural white American cries out for a criminal in the White House. They want a guy who gets away with things, who does what he wants and the fallout sticks to his enemies and never to him. They want to be spanked, and told that they like it. They want to be stolen from, and told that they then owe something to the thief. They want to be told it's okay to be wicked, because if you're smart, you can be wicked and still be on top. A culture hero for the culture wars.

 

[rousseau]

Biden isn't getting credit for the economy. But if Trump gets voted in again this is a sure sign that we've always been doomed, anyway.

 

[Toni]

Trump remains the Teflon don. Nothing seems to make a dent in his popularity. A conviction won’t make a difference.

That's what Nixon got wrong. He thought he had to pretend not to be a crook. But voice of the rural white American cries out for a criminal in the White House. They want a guy who gets away with things, who does what he wants and the fallout sticks to his enemies and never to him. They want to be spanked, and told that they like it. They want to be stolen from, and told that they then owe something to the thief. They want to be told it's okay to be wicked, because if you're smart, you can be wicked and still be on top. A culture hero for the culture wars.

Please. Rural white America is a small fraction of any state, with the exception of four states: Maine, Vermont, West Virginia and Mississippi being the only states where a majority of the states population is considered rural. While it is true that urban areas on average are less politically conservative, the majority of any state’s population, with the exception of the four states mentioned earlier, resides in urban areas. In a majority of states, the percentage of urban dwellers is an overwhelming majority of the population. While it is true that a majority of the rural population is white, there is a significant portion of rural America which is minority. And that percentage is growing.

 

[TomC]

Please. Rural white America is a small fraction of any state, with the exception of four states: Maine, Vermont, West Virginia and Mississippi being the only states where a majority of the states population is considered rural.

You have an awkward definition of "rural" if your list doesn't include Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, or the Dakotas.
Tom

 

[pood]

Polls mean nothing at this point. Mondale was polling comfortably ahead of Reagan at this point in late 1983, and Reagan’s approval rating was about as low as Biden’s is now. I could give many other examples. Do not worry about polls right now.

 

[pood]

I might add even polls right after the political conventions in election years are umreliable. Nixon led Humphrey by 16 points in late 1968 and just barely won. Carter led Ford by 30 (!) points out of the Democratic convention in 1976 and barely won. Dewey led Truman in every poll in 1948 and Truman won handily. Dukakis led Bush senior by a wide margin after the Democrtatic convention in 1988 and Bush won easily. And so on.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Okay, polls are not predictors 12 months out. But the fact that a venal, hate-filled, mentally unstable wretch like DJT is a viable candidate to "lead" the country is a sign of our national decline. The President who led the most deliberate and destructive assault on our Constitutional system should have been imprisoned by now.

 

[TomC]

Okay, polls are not predictors 12 months out. But the fact that a venal, hate-filled, mentally unstable wretch like DJT is a viable candidate to "lead" the country is a sign of our national decline. The President who led the most deliberate and destructive assault on our Constitutional system should have been imprisoned by now.

Given the current situation I'm glad that the justice system is grinding slowly. Take your time, do things right, get the job done but don't rush in where angels fear to tread.

This isn't an action packed movie, this is history in the making.
Tom

 

[ZiprHead]

Pollster Ratings - Morning Consult

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Morning Consult gets a B-, and that's for polls within 21 days of an election. Polls at this point are essentially random...

Polls are of people too stupid to avoid answering a poll.

 

[Toni]

Please. Rural white America is a small fraction of any state, with the exception of four states: Maine, Vermont, West Virginia and Mississippi being the only states where a majority of the states population is considered rural.

You have an awkward definition of "rural" if your list doesn't include Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, or the Dakotas.
Tom

I’m not talking land mass—I’m talking percentage of any state’s population living in areas classified as urban by the US Census. I googled to be certain that my perceptions were correct. They were although I would not have guessed accurately which states had a majority of its population in rural areas.

Feel free to check data yourself. Here’s what I used:

Nation’s Urban and Rural Populations Shift Following 2020 Census

The nation's urban population increased by 6.4% between 2010 and 2020 based on 2020 Census data and a change in the way urban areas are defined.

www.census.gov

Rural States Are Almost Entirely Ignored Under Current State-by-State System

Political influence in the Electoral College is based on whether the state is a closely divided battleground state. Under the current state-by-state winner-take all method of awarding electoral votes, presidential candidates ignore states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind...

www.nationalpopularvote.com

There’s also this, with a nice map, if you are more a visual person.

Urbanization in the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[jonatha]

Please. Rural white America is a small fraction of any state, with the exception of four states: Maine, Vermont, West Virginia and Mississippi being the only states where a majority of the states population is considered rural.

You have an awkward definition of "rural" if your list doesn't include Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, or the Dakotas.
Tom

Wyoming: 62% urban. Idaho: 69.2%. Alaska: 64.9%. Montana: 53.4%. North Dakota: 61%. South Dakota: 57.2%.

Mapping U.S. Urbanization, by State

Pressures from urbanization in the U.S. housing supply continue, with homeowner vacancies falling to an all-time low of 0.8% by end of 2022.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[TomC]

Wyoming: 62% urban. Idaho: 69.2%. Alaska: 64.9%. Montana: 53.4%. North Dakota: 61%. South Dakota: 57.2%.

So again.
What do you mean by "urban"?

If your definition of urban includes 62% of Wyoming we mean different things by the word. "I can see a neighbors house from my porch" isn't what I mean by "urban".
Tom

 

[Politesse]

While it is true that a majority of the rural population is white, there is a significant portion of rural America which is minority. And that percentage is growing.

That is true, but they do not tend to be Trump supporters, or I would not have made a distinction at all.

And numerical majority has nothing to do with a discussion of electoral politics, anyway. Trump's base is what it is, they neither need nor respect democratic consensus.

 

[Politesse]

Wyoming: 62% urban. Idaho: 69.2%. Alaska: 64.9%. Montana: 53.4%. North Dakota: 61%. South Dakota: 57.2%.

So again.
What do you mean by "urban"?

If your definition of urban includes 62% of Wyoming we mean different things by the word. "I can see a neighbors house from my porch" isn't what I mean by "urban".
Tom

The majority of Wyomingites live in cities, not out on a ranch. They are very small cities compared to the rest of the country, but that isn't how urban and rural are defined.

 

[Elixir]

Swing-State Polling Shows Biden Trails Trump in 2024 Battleground States

Biden has no advantage across key 2024 battleground states, where half say “Bidenomics” is bad for the economy

pro.morningconsult.com

View attachment 44566

I don’t like to be pessimistic this far out. Today’s economic news is good, GDP is really growing. But it is not translating into support for Biden. Inflation seems to have trumped growth, or at least that’s the appearance. Only Nevada seems likely to stay in the Blue column.

Trump remains the Teflon don. Nothing seems to make a dent in his popularity. A conviction won’t make a difference.

I still say that one of the main reasons for this low polling is a basic refusal by the democrats to go negative. Biden trying to tout his economic progress, even if real, isn’t going to make a difference. Instead they Dems need to go on the attack and viciously so. It may turn off some voters, but it will rally the base.

The time to go negative is MUCH closer to the election. Otherwise the bad stuff loses its shock value. People get over whatever scandal had them on edge. That’s why “October Surprises” are so popular.
We should have had this election on 1/7/21, while some people were still a little bit displeased, before violence became “legitimate political discourse”.

 

[TomC]

Wyoming: 62% urban. Idaho: 69.2%. Alaska: 64.9%. Montana: 53.4%. North Dakota: 61%. South Dakota: 57.2%.

So again.
What do you mean by "urban"?

If your definition of urban includes 62% of Wyoming we mean different things by the word. "I can see a neighbors house from my porch" isn't what I mean by "urban".
Tom

The majority of Wyomingites live in cities, not out on a ranch.

Know what a "city" means in Wyoming?

I've been in dance clubs more populous than Casper.
Tom

ETA ~Gay bars. From Chicago to New York City. ~

 

[Toni]

While it is true that a majority of the rural population is white, there is a significant portion of rural America which is minority. And that percentage is growing.

That is true, but they do not tend to be Trump supporters, or I would not have made a distinction at all.

And numerical majority has nothing to do with a discussion of electoral politics, anyway. Trump's base is what it is, they neither need nor respect democratic consensus.

You aren't being logical. In most states, a vast majority of the population are urban dwellers. If urban dwellers did not also substantially vote for Trump, he never would have (kinda sorta) won the 2016 election. In fact, even if an over whelming majority of rural voters were Trump supporters, it would still require a substantial portion of urban dwellers to vote for Trump to give him a electoral victory.

Moreover, I wonder if the presumption that non-white voters generally voted Democrat is accurate (honestly do not know). Socially, with respect to marriage, marriage equality, LGBTQ+ rights, most immigrants, who are largely members of conservative religions, are more aligned with Republican stated values: marriage is between one man and one woman THE END.