Breakdown In Civil Order

[Jimmy Higgins]

There are consequences to bad policies.

Zero Bail Case Study - Zero Bail Policies Increased Crime in Every Category | Yolo County District Attorney

yoloda.org

Key findings of this study include:

• Individuals released on Zero Bail were subsequently rearrested for a total of 163% more crimes than individuals released on bail.
• Arrested individuals released on Zero Bail reoffended at an average rate that was 70% higher than arrestees who posted bail.
• The average recidivism rate for those released on Zero Bail was 78% over 18 months, while the average recidivism rate for those released on bail was only 46%.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail committed new felonies 90% more often than those who posted bail.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail committed new misdemeanors 123% more often than those who posted bail.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail were rearrested for two or more new crimes 148% more often than those released on bail.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail committed new violent offenses 200% more often than those who posted bail.

So, the point being, had they paid bail they wouldn't have committed additional crimes?

 

[TSwizzle]

Authorities are releasing more information about fallen Selma police officer Gonzalo Carrasco Jr. and the man accused of killing him earlier this week. As Carrasco got out of his car and approached Dixon, officials say the shooting began. "Dixon immediately pulled out a gun and fired several shots, striking officer Carrasco. Dixon took off running while he was still armed with his gun, which was later determined to be a ghost gun. A .223 caliber style assault rifle." Investigators say the ambush-style attack on Carrasco didn't give him a moment to defend himself.

News

This "ghost gun" can't be right. I'm sure Newsom banned "ghost" guns in California. I guess Mr. Dixon didn't know they were banned.

And while this carnage goes on in California, Newsom leads some 20 state governors in ensuring WOMEN can get abortions in their states.

Newsom is dumber than most.

 

[laughing dog]

So, the point being, had they paid bail they wouldn't have committed additional crimes?

I always thought the rationale for bail is to provide an incentive for a person who has been charged but not convicted of a crime to show up for trial. The fact that people on bail sometimes commit crimes is an attempt to extend the justification for bail.

That extension raised serious questions. Is it just to keep someone in jail awaiting trial because
1) we think they might commit a crime while on bail, and
2) they cannot afford bail?

Clearly, if the criminal justice system had perfect foresight, these questions would take on a different dimension in the discussion of the tradeoff between freedom and crime prevention. But we don't have perfect foresight, so the recognition that there is a trade off should be dismissed.

 

[Oleg]

Covid caused delays in the court system which would be expected to increase the crime rate.

Why would Covid increase recidivism?

 

[Oleg]

So, the point being, had they paid bail they wouldn't have committed additional crimes?

I’d guess it’s at least two factors. First, that the bail requirement forces the accused to take the criminal charge seriously. If every time you’re arrested the judge just lets you go, then what me worry? The second factor is the bail bondsman. Often the accused provides collateral, in addition to a fee, to the bondsman. And the bondsman has a personal financial stake in the accused showing up to court and staying out of trouble.

 

[laughing dog]

So, the point being, had they paid bail they wouldn't have committed additional crimes?

I’d guess it’s at least two factors. First, that the bail requirement forces the accused to take the criminal charge seriously. If every time you’re arrested the judge just lets you go, then what me worry?

That makes no sense.

The second factor is the bail bondsman. Often the accused provides collateral, in addition to a fee, to the bondsman. And the bondsman has a personal financial stake in the accused showing up to court and staying out of trouble.

The bondsman has a stake in the accused showing up to court, but no bondsman has the resources to monitor all their "bondees".

 

[Oleg]

That makes no sense.

If you give a criminal endless chances, they'll take them.

The bondsman has a stake in the accused showing up to court, but no bondsman has the resources to monitor all their "bondees".

That's the point of the collateral.

 

[steve_bank]

I could post gun violence in Seattle over the last few days, but what's the point?

Increasingly tenns are assaulting teens. A girl in a high school was sasukted by a group of boys in a bathroom, and it was posted online.

People are intentionally ODing on fentanyl at parties to be revived by Narcan.

Risng suicide and feelings of alianation and being alone by teens.

Culture is unraveling.

Around here drug use has become instutionalized by policy and then peole wonder why drug treatment infrastructure is overwhelmed.

Policy increases drug problems and then the same people say increasing treatment capacity is the solution to increased drug problems.

It is the same with the homeless problem. Progressives want to spend several billion dollars on housng. It is institutionalizing homelessness. Make it easy to be homelsss and people will choose to be homeless.

I voted againt te ballot measure because i was too broad in scope. Te progessive view, s ding a lot of money is compassion and cures all problems.

The sense of there being a social and civil structure is gone.

 

[Oleg]

Around here drug use has become instutionalized by policy and then peole wonder why drug treatment infrastructure is overwhelmed.

Policy increases drug problems and then the same people say increasing treatment capacity is the solution to increased drug problems.

It is the same with the homeless problem. Progressives want to spend several billion dollars on housng. It is institutionalizing homelessness. Make it easy to be homelsss and people will choose to be homeless.

Progressives love creating dependency; it gives them a smug self-appointed role to manage society. If policy was to get people off drugs, to not tolerate encampments, to not given endless second chances, then they'd lose their moral superiority (and all the tax money they lavish on each other).

 

[laughing dog]

That makes no sense.

If you give a criminal endless chances, they'll take them.

Eventually they go to trial. If convicted, then encarceration.

The bondsman has a stake in the accused showing up to court, but no bondsman has the resources to monitor all their "bondees".

That's the point of the collateral.

How does collateral give the bondsman the resources to monitor the accused?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Yesterday three 14 year olds and one 12 year old in the area led police on a chase after an armed car jacking.

Anybody think this is nothing new and not reflective of a cultural issue?

My sister stole a car when she was 12. I am not sure which culture you are referring to, though. America, urban, poor people, Lithuanian Americans, ... but I get the feeling this is some kind of virtue signaling over identity politics. So, just come out and say it. Don't be shy.

Eh, Washington state has pretty much made it legal to steal a car and drive off.

Define "pretty much."

Cops can't chase unless there's probable cause of a felony, or such.

Well, hold on. This seems more complicated:
1. You are writing that statement in the context of a 12 and 14 yr old stealing a car. Stealing a car is a felony. Observing a 12 and 14 year old driving a car is therefore probable cause to a felony. So police can actually chase them according to you.
2. It isn't clear what "or such" means, but let's suppose a bank was just robbed. 3 Black men were reported leaving. An officer observes 3 Black men in a car running a red light 3 blocks away within 30 seconds of the communication. He has probable cause to chase, right?

Add in that these were minors, and it's a pat on the wrist. Tsk, tsk. For equity!

Teenagers' brains are not fully developed, adolescents engage in higher risk activities which can easily change, and so they can learn a lesson and be rehabilitated so that as adults they can easily be productive members of society.

 

[thebeave]

There's a big difference between just stealing a car and armed car jacking. Did your 12 year old sister just find a car with the keys in the ignition and drive off? Or did she brandish a gun and force a driver to give up their car under threat of violence? I'm assuming the former. There's a difference.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

There's a big difference between just stealing a car and armed car jacking. Did your 12 year old sister just find a car with the keys in the ignition and drive off? Or did she brandish a gun and force a driver to give up their car under threat of violence? I'm assuming the former. There's a difference.

Neither. She learned how to start a manual shift car without keys and later more enhanced versions of hotwiring vehicles. I don't think there is as big a difference either. She was influenced by older teenagers to make bad decisions, had poor role models, and a neglectful single parent. Had we lived at the time in an urban area at the time with an in-flux of guns, more intense crimes, larger black markets, larger organized competition among criminals, she certainly would have engaged in other more intense crimes than she had. Later in teenage years she got pregnant, found religion, and was surrounded by positive influences. Same person, completely rehabilitated and not a criminal.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Around here drug use has become instutionalized by policy and then peole wonder why drug treatment infrastructure is overwhelmed.

Policy increases drug problems and then the same people say increasing treatment capacity is the solution to increased drug problems.

It is the same with the homeless problem. Progressives want to spend several billion dollars on housng. It is institutionalizing homelessness. Make it easy to be homelsss and people will choose to be homeless.

Progressives love creating dependency; it gives them a smug self-appointed role to manage society.

It is incredible how the alt-right likes to twist humane emotion into a perversion.

 

[Gospel]

It's a trap yawl. You can't see it? Label everyone on the other side this thing and ignore all the reasonable people. It's working. Working to marginalize every single one of us by our very own hands. Just chillax with the broad brushes and name names. Call out by name the specific people for their actions and avoid attacking groups. It's the only way to really slow the breakdown in civil order. Which in my opinion is happening because we aren't really talking to each other. We're scream over each others heads at a caricature .

 

[Oleg]

Around here drug use has become instutionalized by policy and then peole wonder why drug treatment infrastructure is overwhelmed.

Policy increases drug problems and then the same people say increasing treatment capacity is the solution to increased drug problems.

It is the same with the homeless problem. Progressives want to spend several billion dollars on housng. It is institutionalizing homelessness. Make it easy to be homelsss and people will choose to be homeless.

Progressives love creating dependency; it gives them a smug self-appointed role to manage society.

It is incredible how the alt-right likes to twist humane emotion into a perversion.

It’s humane to keep people addicted to drugs? If it were your son or daughter hooked on fentanyl or worse, you’d abet the addiction?

 

[thebeave]

There's a big difference between just stealing a car and armed car jacking. Did your 12 year old sister just find a car with the keys in the ignition and drive off? Or did she brandish a gun and force a driver to give up their car under threat of violence? I'm assuming the former. There's a difference.

Neither. She learned how to start a manual shift car without keys and later more enhanced versions of hotwiring vehicles. I don't think there is as big a difference either. She was influenced by older teenagers to make bad decisions, had poor role models, and a neglectful single parent. Had we lived at the time in an urban area at the time with an in-flux of guns, more intense crimes, larger black markets, larger organized competition among criminals, she certainly would have engaged in other more intense crimes than she had. Later in teenage years she got pregnant, found religion, and was surrounded by positive influences. Same person, completely rehabilitated and not a criminal.

Glad your sister has turned her life around. Its not that easy of a thing to do. Despite me not being a fan of religion in general, it does have its value for helping people get back on track.

In the eyes of the law, its generally much more serious if you commit a crime when armed with a weapon versus the same crime without. Though, for a minor those differences may not be as substantial as compared to the same crime when committed as an adult.

 

[Oleg]

There are consequences to bad policies.

She fled the war in Ukraine but failed to find a safe haven in S.F. middle school

A teen from Ukraine fled the war for security in S.F., but chaos in middle school has left her feeling unsafe.

www.sfchronicle.com

Students interrupted classes, jumped on desks, cursed at teachers. At first, Yana wondered what was going on, but then “nothing happened.” Students were not disciplined or prevented from repeat behavior.

“After one week, I understood that was normal,” said Yana, whose last name The Chronicle agreed not to publish in accordance with its source policy.

Not long after, Yana said, she became the target.

Her experience echoes what many parents and teachers have said is an escalating problem in the city’s middle schools, with bullying, violence and defiant students creating an untenable learning environment. While the situation has worried many students, staff and parents, for a girl already fleeing violence and chaos, it’s been particularly difficult.

Equity.

 

[Gospel]

Around here drug use has become instutionalized by policy and then peole wonder why drug treatment infrastructure is overwhelmed.

Policy increases drug problems and then the same people say increasing treatment capacity is the solution to increased drug problems.

It is the same with the homeless problem. Progressives want to spend several billion dollars on housng. It is institutionalizing homelessness. Make it easy to be homelsss and people will choose to be homeless.

Progressives love creating dependency; it gives them a smug self-appointed role to manage society.

It is incredible how the alt-right likes to twist humane emotion into a perversion.

It’s humane to keep people addicted to drugs? If it were your son or daughter hooked on fentanyl or worse, you’d abet the addiction?

I can be wrong but I believe the legalization of some drugs is the result of the current state of affairs not working. The focus is less on abetting (although you're right for calling it that) and more about trying something different. I presume if it doesn't work (it being removing the criminal elements and unsafe drug practices) communities will see this and readjust accordingly. But what do I know, every single liberal is the same exact person with the same exact ideas right?

 

[Oleg]

But what do I know, every single liberal is the same exact person with the same exact ideas right?

That’s why I used “progressive.” Liberals of a generation ago were not this looney. But they’ve been shoved aside by the crazies.