California Doing California Things

[bilby]

Whereas defunding a project halfway through, with a bunch of new viaducts and tunnels and land now owned by the state now serving no purpose... that's using money wisely?

It may very well be the wisest use of current money.

The money already spent ain't coming back under any circumstances.

If you are sure that you are halfway through, then finishing the job maybe makes some sense. But it seems that in fact this project is an unknown distance along its path to completion. Nobody knows that spending as much again will be sufficient; Maybe it will be ten times as much again. Or a hundred.

The problem seems to be that there's no way for the Government to ride roughshod over the landowners whose property they need to obtain; And that the existing freight railways have entrenched rights that they can wield to prevent even the tiniest of disruptions to their business in the interests of advancing the project.

That's the legal framework your state has to work within. In China, they would just tell everyone whose house, apartment, warehouse or factory stands along the line of the new project "Your place is being bulldozed tomorrow, here's a token compensation. Try not to be inside when we knock it down".

If you want the benefits of democracy, property rights, and rule of law, you need to put up with the problems that causes, such as not being able to build rail infrastructure at less than ruinous cost.

Given that the costs are vastly more than anticipated, and are still snowballing, it is time to remember that the sunk cost fallacy is a fallacy, and that the sooner you get out of the game, the less money you will lose.

 

[Politesse]

If you are sure that you are halfway through, then finishing the job maybe makes some sense. But it seems that in fact this project is an unknown distance along its path to completion. Nobody knows that spending as much again will be sufficient; Maybe it will be ten times as much again. Or a hundred

You've been reading too much Tswizzle crap. The project and its progress are not some divine mystery, you can read about what they are up to at hsr.ca.gov. In particular, the latest biennial report is from March, and provides considerable detail about the status of the construction projects around the state.

I note that the money from the defunding of our rail project is going to, essentially, non-earmarked bribes for any rail company willing it's non-white workers. Unlike the money that was funding California's high speed rail, which is dedicated to a well documented project conducted woth absolute transparency and tangible results anyone who drives down-Valley sees with their own to eyes, the 2.4 billion dollars Trump stole and handed to his friends are not attached to any particular project, and there is no accountability at all for how those moneys are going to be spent, except for their pinky-swear not to spend any of it on combatting climate change or hiring brown/gay/vaginaed rail workers.

 

[Shadowy Man]

It may be a well documented project but has fallen far short of expectations.

Here’s what Google says about it:

Initial California High-Speed Rail predictions, approved in 2008, aimed for a $33 billion cost and completion by 2020, but these figures have ballooned to a projected $128 billion total cost and an operational target of 2038, with only the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment underway for a 2032 opening. Cost escalations and funding shortfalls have led to a scaled-down "blended system" focus on the Central Valley segment and a 2038 operational target for certain sections.

An almost two decade slip and a cost that ballooned by a factor of nearly four. Only to be able to go from Merced to Bakersfield.

Is that worth another thirteen years of spending?

 

[Politesse]

It may be a well documented project but has fallen far short of expectations.

Here’s what Google says about it:

Initial California High-Speed Rail predictions, approved in 2008, aimed for a $33 billion cost and completion by 2020, but these figures have ballooned to a projected $128 billion total cost and an operational target of 2038, with only the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment underway for a 2032 opening. Cost escalations and funding shortfalls have led to a scaled-down "blended system" focus on the Central Valley segment and a 2038 operational target for certain sections.

An almost two decade slip and a cost that ballooned by a factor of nearly four. Only to be able to go from Merced to Bakersfield.

Is that worth another thirteen years of spending?

Yes, obviously. A functioning rail line is both more useful and more profitable than an unfinished one.

 

[bilby]

If you are sure that you are halfway through, then finishing the job maybe makes some sense. But it seems that in fact this project is an unknown distance along its path to completion. Nobody knows that spending as much again will be sufficient; Maybe it will be ten times as much again. Or a hundred

You've been reading too much Tswizzle crap.

I can assure you that not a single word of my post was inspired in any way by Tswizzle.

The project and its progress are not some divine mystery, you can read about what they are up to at hsr.ca.gov.

Indeed. Or at plenty of other sources that are not examples of the relentless positivity and spin that infests so much of government and business communications these days.

In particular, the latest biennial report is from March, and provides considerable detail about the status of the construction projects around the state.

Yes.

Can you show me where the total cost of the project (not the IOS, which is clearly not a complete project by any measure, and is just the cheap bit that fails to service either of the two major cities the project is supposed to link) is given?

Can you assure me that that cost estimate is at least in the ballpark of what the final total cost will be?

Given the fourfold blowout in costs to date, I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of the official estimates.

I note that the money from the defunding of our rail project is going to, essentially, non-earmarked bribes for any rail company willing it's non-white workers.

My post is agnostic as to how the money should be spent, if not on this project. It is completely irrelevant to any of what I said.

Unlike the money that was funding California's high speed rail, which is dedicated to a well documented project conducted woth absolute transparency and tangible results anyone who drives down-Valley sees with their own to eyes, the 2.4 billion dollars Trump stole and handed to his friends are not attached to any particular project, and there is no accountability at all for how those moneys are going to be spent, except for their pinky-swear not to spend any of it on combatting climate change or hiring brown/gay/vaginaed rail workers.

That's a great shame; But not in any way a reason to continue to pursue a project that still has no good estimate of total cost.

I think a high speed rail link like this is an excellent idea.

I don't think that it is such a good idea that money is no object in its pursuit, though.

It doesn't even need to be profitable to be worth doing; But it does need to be of known cost.

 

[Shadowy Man]

It may be a well documented project but has fallen far short of expectations.

Here’s what Google says about it:

Initial California High-Speed Rail predictions, approved in 2008, aimed for a $33 billion cost and completion by 2020, but these figures have ballooned to a projected $128 billion total cost and an operational target of 2038, with only the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment underway for a 2032 opening. Cost escalations and funding shortfalls have led to a scaled-down "blended system" focus on the Central Valley segment and a 2038 operational target for certain sections.

An almost two decade slip and a cost that ballooned by a factor of nearly four. Only to be able to go from Merced to Bakersfield.

Is that worth another thirteen years of spending?

Yes, obviously. A functioning rail line is both more useful and more profitable than an unfinished one.

At what cost, though? Is there no cost increase or schedule delay that would justify not spending more money on it now?

 

[Politesse]

If what you want is a project with no delay, no cost overrun, no Republican sabotage, no local corruption, and a free pony for every rider, then what you want is nothing new ever built again. If we had added ten lanes to every highway, a new bus network, or a state-owned airline, the result of that would have been expensive, late and wasteful also. That's just how things are done here. But we can't just sit with our thumbs up our asses in a bell-jar suspension of 1975, refusing to update our already badly decayed infrastructure. The perfect should not be allowed to become the enemy of the good.

 

[Shadowy Man]

If what you want is a project with no delay, no cost overrun, no Republican sabotage, no local corruption, and a free pony for every rider, then what you want is nothing new ever built again. If we had added ten lanes to every highway, a new bus network, or a state-owned airline, the result of that would have been expensive, late and wasteful also. That's just how things are done here. But we can't just sit with our thumbs up our asses in a bell-jar suspension of 1975, refusing to update our already badly decayed infrastructure. The perfect should not be allowed to become the enemy of the good.

So, your stance is that the current cost overrun and schedule delay will be worth it to have a high speed rail system between Merced and Bakersfield. Yes?

Is there any cost in your opinion that would not make it worth it? There must be a line somewhere and we are just arguing opinion, right?

 

[Politesse]

Is there any cost in your opinion that would not make it worth it? There must be a line somewhere and we are just arguing opinion, right?

If the only alternative is canceling the project, no. We do need a modern transportation system, in the state generally and in the Valley most of all. If there are legal political means to apply pressure, reduce costs etc, of course I would not object to these, provided the savings aren't just going to fund the Trump regime.

It's weird. I say I'm not sure I want to vote for "centrist" candidate, and half the forum leaps to condemn me for personally putting Trump in office. But then Trump steals 2.4 billion dollars from my state, gives nothing back, and you all cheer, because old men think criticizing high speed rail makes them sound clever!

 

[bilby]

But then Trump steals 2.4 billion dollars from my state, gives nothing back, and you all cheer, because old men think criticizing high speed rail makes them sound clever!

I didn't cheer anything; And I strongly support high speed rail as a transport solution.

I just happen to think that this specific project is too expensive, as a consequence of over-optimistic estimates and poor planning, and that it should not have more money thrown at it until and unless a more realistic plan and budget are available.

It seems to suffer from many of the same issues as the HS2 project, particularly the high cost of land aquisition due to a combination of uncompromising adherence to a straight line route with minimal gradients, and the ability of landowners on that route to milk the project, secure in the knowledge that they cannot be bypassed.

 

[Politesse]

But then Trump steals 2.4 billion dollars from my state, gives nothing back, and you all cheer, because old men think criticizing high speed rail makes them sound clever!

I didn't cheer anything; And I strongly support high speed rail as a transport solution.

I just happen to think that this specific project is too expensive, as a consequence of over-optimistic estimates and poor planning, and that it should not have more money thrown at it until and unless a more realistic plan and budget are available.

It seems to suffer from many of the same issues as the HS2 project, particularly the high cost of land aquisition due to a combination of uncompromising adherence to a straight line route with minimal gradients, and the ability of landowners on that route to milk the project, secure in the knowledge that they cannot be bypassed.

It was always going to be an expensive prospect to run a rail line through hundreds of miles of the most highly valued land on the planet. I don't see y'all complaining about the food you buy off us. But when we want something nice...

 

[bilby]

I don't see y'all complaining about the food you buy off us.

My apologies for the oversight.

I fucking hate almonds.

Is that better?

 

[Elixir]

I fucking hate almonds

We’re going to send more almonds unless you buy guns from us. And BTW that’s another 25 percent. Did I say 25 percent? Fifteen percent. And the seller (me) gets an extra ten percent export fee.

 

[Politesse]

I don't see y'all complaining about the food you buy off us.

My apologies for the oversight.

I fucking hate almonds.

Is that better?

Shows what you know about geography! Not many almonds on the West Side.

 

[Tigers!]

If you are sure that you are halfway through, then finishing the job maybe makes some sense. But it seems that in fact this project is an unknown distance along its path to completion. Nobody knows that spending as much again will be sufficient; Maybe it will be ten times as much again. Or a hundred

You've been reading too much Tswizzle crap. The project and its progress are not some divine mystery, you can read about what they are up to at hsr.ca.gov. In particular, the latest biennial report is from March, and provides considerable detail about the status of the construction projects around the state.

I note that the money from the defunding of our rail project is going to, essentially, non-earmarked bribes for any rail company willing it's non-white workers. Unlike the money that was funding California's high speed rail, which is dedicated to a well documented project conducted woth absolute transparency and tangible results anyone who drives down-Valley sees with their own to eyes, the 2.4 billion dollars Trump stole and handed to his friends are not attached to any particular project, and there is no accountability at all for how those moneys are going to be spent, except for their pinky-swear not to spend any of it on combatting climate change or hiring brown/gay/vaginaed rail workers.

Reading about that rail line reminds me that the same mob who developed that must have developed the Suburban Rail Loop project in Melbourne, Victoria.
A poorly conceived, business case that will never stack up, too long in wrong place, too expensive etc.
The Edifice Complex is alive and well.