Climate Change(d)?

[Jokodo]

An unusually hot, dry winter has failed to replenish already low water levels after last year’s devastating drought.

...
Europe has been in drought since 2018, according to a recent study from the Graz University of Technology in Austria. Researchers say the water situation is now “very precarious”.
Countries across the continent have been struggling with water even through winter. Low rain and snowfall mean already dwindling supplies haven’t been restored during this typically wet period.

In northern Italy, France and Spain, the situation “raises concerns for water supply for human use, agriculture and energy production”, according to the EU Joint Research Centre’s (JRC) latest report on droughts in Europe.

Source: https://www.euronews.com/green/2023...pean-countries-facing-another-year-of-drought

- Most of southern and western Europe is affected by substantial anomalies of soil moisture and river flow due to an exceptionally dry and warm winter.
- The snow water equivalent in the Alps is far below the historical average, and is even lower than that for the 2021-2022 winter. This will lead to severe reduction of snowmelt contribution to river flows in the perialpine region during spring and the early summer 2023

Source: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133025

Note that Southern Europe generally has dry summers and gets the overwhelming majority of the year's precipitation in winter. If the winter has been dry, that's it for the year.

Sounds like nice weather in Santa Monica though.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/...sLQ8oE4&giftCopy=3_Independent&smid=url-share

In Madrid, where it hit around 90 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday, schools were allowed to close early to avoid the heat. In Catalonia, it’s so dry that the valves of an irrigation canal have been closed for lack of water. And in Seville, the police are investigating the death of a horse pulling a tourist carriage from apparent heatstroke.
With temperatures over 100 degrees in early April, people in Spain have moved into summer mode, looking for shade, hitting the beach. But the extreme heat — so early in the year — has prompted fears that it is no longer a seasonal phenomenon but a new daily reality.
On Thursday, Spain’s mainland recorded its hottest ever temperature for April, reaching 38.8 degrees Celsius, about 102 degrees Fahrenheit, in the southern city of Cordoba, according to the country’s national weather service. And in several areas of the country, thermometers have exceeded seasonal norms by more than 25 degrees Fahrenheit, reaching values typical of summer.
Coinciding with a long-running drought that has already depleted reservoirs and dried up fields, the extreme heat has left experts and the authorities bracing for an earlier-than-expected return of heat-related disasters, such as wildfires, and revising their predictions.

The extreme heat has also affected nearby countries such as Morocco, Algeria and Portugal, said Maximiliano Herrera, a climatologist who keeps track of extreme temperatures around the world.

“This magnitude is extremely rare in such a big area and for several days in a row,” said Mr. Herrera, who described the episode as a heat wave. “Hundreds of stations are breaking their records with huge margins of up to 5 degrees Celsius above the previous ones and even approaching the records of May.”

While tying a single heat wave to climate change requires analysis, scientists have no doubt that heat waves around the world are becoming hotter, more frequent and longer lasting.

Spain has been particularly affected by higher temperatures. There, summer-like temperatures now last on average almost five weeks longer than in the early 1980s, according to a studypublished by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia this week. Spain experienced its hottest year on record in 2022.

Amazing that some people think it's normal for the climate to change so rapidly when there is overwhelming evidence that this is caused by human activity. But then again, as I've said before, what the fuck would scientists with advanced degrees know compared to some guy enjoying lovely weather in Santa Monica? /s

 

[southernhybrid]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/...oBoInPj&giftCopy=3_Independent&smid=url-share

Flash droughts, the kind that arrive quickly and can lay waste to crops in a matter of weeks, are becoming more common and faster to develop around the world, and human-caused climate change is a major reason, a new scientific study has found.

As global warming continues, more abrupt dry spells could have grave consequences for people in humid regions whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture. The study found that flash droughts occurred more often than slower ones in parts of tropical places like India, Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the Amazon basin.

But “even for slow droughts, the onset speed has been increasing,” said Xing Yuan, a hydrologist at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology in China and lead author of the new study, which was published Thursday in Science. In other words, droughts of all kinds are coming on more speedily, straining forecasters’ ability to anticipate them and communities’ ability to cope.

As the burning of fossil fuels warms the planet, droughts of all kinds are becoming more likely in many places, simply because more evaporation can take place. But scientists hadn’t pinned down whether both flash droughts and slow droughts were becoming more common at the same pace, or whether there was a transition from one type to the other.


Dr. Yuan and his colleagues looked at data from computer models on soil moisture worldwide between 1951 and 2014. They focused on drought episodes that were 20 days or longer, to exclude dry spells that were too short to cause much harm.

The trends varied from place to place, but, looked at globally, they show a shift toward more frequent and more rapid flash droughts. Dr. Yuan and his co-authors found that these trends were well captured in computer simulations that took into account both human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and natural variations in the global climate, including from volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation. But the trends did not appear as clearly in simulations that included only the natural variations. This suggests that human-induced climate change has been a factor.

In the coming decades, even if global warming increases only relatively modestly, flash droughts will become even more common and speedier in almost every region of the globe, the study predicted.

Why should I worry about these terrible droughts? After all, it's been raining this morning in Georgia! /s

 

[TSwizzle]

Dr. Yuan and his colleagues looked at data from computer models on soil moisture worldwide between 1951 and 2014. They focused on drought episodes that were 20 days or longer, to exclude dry spells that were too short to cause much harm.

The trends varied from place to place, but, looked at globally, they show a shift toward more frequent and more rapid flash droughts. Dr. Yuan and his co-authors found that these trends were well captured in computer simulations

a rapture like cult.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Dr. Yuan and his colleagues looked at data from computer models on soil moisture worldwide between 1951 and 2014. They focused on drought episodes that were 20 days or longer, to exclude dry spells that were too short to cause much harm.

The trends varied from place to place, but, looked at globally, they show a shift toward more frequent and more rapid flash droughts. Dr. Yuan and his co-authors found that these trends were well captured in computer simulations

a rapture like cult.

Yeah, a rapture like denial cult.

What that's saying is that computer simulations produce data that looks like what they see in reality.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Dr. Yuan and his colleagues looked at data from computer models on soil moisture worldwide between 1951 and 2014. They focused on drought episodes that were 20 days or longer, to exclude dry spells that were too short to cause much harm.

The trends varied from place to place, but, looked at globally, they show a shift toward more frequent and more rapid flash droughts. Dr. Yuan and his co-authors found that these trends were well captured in computer simulations

a rapture like cult.

So are you going to start saying geology is a lie because they use fossils to date the rock and the rock to date the fossils?

 

[Elixir]

Dr. Yuan and his colleagues looked at data from computer models on soil moisture worldwide between 1951 and 2014. They focused on drought episodes that were 20 days or longer, to exclude dry spells that were too short to cause much harm.

The trends varied from place to place, but, looked at globally, they show a shift toward more frequent and more rapid flash droughts. Dr. Yuan and his co-authors found that these trends were well captured in computer simulations

a rapture like cult.

So are you going to start saying geology is a lie because they use fossils to date the rock and the rock to date the fossils?

Nah. They're similar because they promise stuff that is denied RW extremists. Rapture-like (or Trump-like) cults are things that most people can agree, are not good. So calling geology or climate science those things makes them also not good.

 

[TSwizzle]

Maybe those in denial will face reality when they don't have access to water.

California’s reservoirs are filled to the brim. Our snowpack is epic. And, in what feels like a near-miraculous turn of events, less than 8 percent of the state is still considered to be in a drought. Another perk of this water bounty: The two biggest water systems that send clean water throughout California will both, for the first time in nearly two decades, deliver all of the water requested by cities, farms and businesses. This is great news for a state that was mired in extreme drought and struggling to survive off reduced water supplies for years.

NYT

Catastrophic 68 degrees in Santa Monica today.

 

[steve_bank]

Beep Beep Beep...
Yes Commissioner Gordon this is Batman.
Batman, I hate to say it but The Tswizzler has returned and is up to his old tricks!
We are on our way Commissioner.

To the Batpole Robin.
Holy Climate Change Denier Batman!

 

[Jokodo]

Maybe those in denial will face reality when they don't have access to water.

California’s reservoirs are filled to the brim. Our snowpack is epic. And, in what feels like a near-miraculous turn of events, less than 8 percent of the state is still considered to be in a drought. Another perk of this water bounty: The two biggest water systems that send clean water throughout California will both, for the first time in nearly two decades, deliver all of the water requested by cities, farms and businesses. This is great news for a state that was mired in extreme drought and struggling to survive off reduced water supplies for years.

NYT

Catastrophic 68 degrees in Santa Monica today.

So the reservoirs are filled and there's enough snow to last through most of the summer, and that's national news because the new normal is already so bad that this is a story.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Maybe those in denial will face reality when they don't have access to water.

California’s reservoirs are filled to the brim. Our snowpack is epic. And, in what feels like a near-miraculous turn of events, less than 8 percent of the state is still considered to be in a drought. Another perk of this water bounty: The two biggest water systems that send clean water throughout California will both, for the first time in nearly two decades, deliver all of the water requested by cities, farms and businesses. This is great news for a state that was mired in extreme drought and struggling to survive off reduced water supplies for years.

NYT

Catastrophic 68 degrees in Santa Monica today.

Yeah, funny how after all that absurd rain and snow, Lake Powell remains over 60 feet below where it was today in 2013. Guess all your problems are over. Lake Mead is 20 feet below its level 2 years ago today.

Yes, the large precip events were positive news, they didn't end the major issue regarding the impact of a very long drought and its impact on access to water and electricity.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Maybe those in denial will face reality when they don't have access to water.

California’s reservoirs are filled to the brim. Our snowpack is epic. And, in what feels like a near-miraculous turn of events, less than 8 percent of the state is still considered to be in a drought. Another perk of this water bounty: The two biggest water systems that send clean water throughout California will both, for the first time in nearly two decades, deliver all of the water requested by cities, farms and businesses. This is great news for a state that was mired in extreme drought and struggling to survive off reduced water supplies for years.

NYT

Catastrophic 68 degrees in Santa Monica today.

So the reservoirs are filled and there's enough snow to last through most of the summer, and that's national news because the new normal is already so bad that this is a story.

The small reservoirs are full.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Maybe those in denial will face reality when they don't have access to water.

California’s reservoirs are filled to the brim. Our snowpack is epic. And, in what feels like a near-miraculous turn of events, less than 8 percent of the state is still considered to be in a drought. Another perk of this water bounty: The two biggest water systems that send clean water throughout California will both, for the first time in nearly two decades, deliver all of the water requested by cities, farms and businesses. This is great news for a state that was mired in extreme drought and struggling to survive off reduced water supplies for years.

NYT

Catastrophic 68 degrees in Santa Monica today.

Yeah, funny how after all that absurd rain and snow, Lake Powell remains over 60 feet below where it was today in 2013. Guess all your problems are over. Lake Mead is 20 feet below its level 2 years ago today.

Yes, the large precip events were positive news, they didn't end the major issue regarding the impact of a very long drought and its impact on access to water and electricity.

But Tswizzle said *California* reservoirs are full. lakes Mead and Powell are not in California. Climate change may be happening, but not in Santa Monica and maybe not even in the rest of California, now that its reservoirs are full.

 

[Tharmas]

But Tswizzle said *California* reservoirs are full. lakes Mead and Powell are not in California. Climate change may be happening, but not in Santa Monica and maybe not even in the rest of California, now that its reservoirs are full.

That's true, but southern California also relies, in part, on Lakes Mead and Powell for water and power. So California has not received a complete reprieve from climate change.

 

[steve_bank]

NYC engulfed in dense smoke from Canadian fires.

Fire season in Wa is already underway. We have already had some smoke from Canadian fires.

Higher temperatures and lower than normal rain.

 

[Elixir]

Friends in NYC: “It feels apocalyptic!”

Me: “At least you’ll feel a little bit more at home during the actual apocalypse!”

 

[lpetrich]

It's Canada's boreal forests that are burning: About Boreal Forests | IBFRA

The boreal forest (or “taiga”) is the world’s largest land biome. The boreal ecozone principally spans 8 countries: Canada, China, Finland, Japan, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. It is typically comprised of coniferous tree species such as pine, spruce and fir with some broadleaf species such as poplar and birch.

The circumboreal belt of forest represents about 30% of the global forest area, contains more surface freshwater than any other biome, and has large tracts of unmanaged forests across the high-latitude regions of Canada, Russia, and the United States. From a biological perspective, boreal forests are defined as forests growing in high-latitude environments where freezing temperatures occur for 6 to 8 months and in which trees are capable of reaching a minimum height of 5 m and a canopy cover of 10%.

So I decided to ask what other boreal forests might be burning. Indeed there are.

• Wildfires rage in Russia's Ural mountains, Siberia | AP News
• Wildfires raging in parts of Russia have left at least 21 people dead | CNN
• At least 21 dead as wildfires rage across Urals and Siberia | Wildfires | The Guardian

Scandinavia?

• Weather agency warns of further forest fire risk across Sweden - The Local
• Fire bans as Sweden braces for another week of tinder-dry weather - The Local
• The number of forest fires is increasing in the spring due to carelessness, the most common cause of ignition

 

[Politesse]

I'm kind of shocked by the photos - NYC looks easily as bad as SF did at the height of our really bad fire season two years ago - but I do hope this inspires a new wave of thought in DC concerning Western wildfire problem, now that they realize the problem won't necessarily stay on our side of the Divide.

 

[lpetrich]

Chris Hayes on Twitter: "I swear they’re gonna be talking about lead being actually good for you next" / Twitter
noting
Matthew Gertz on Twitter: "Fox guest: There's just no health risk...We have this kind of air in India and China all the time, no public health emergency... this doesn't kill anybody, this doesn't make anybody cough, this is not a health event... particulate matter is just very fine soot, they're innocuous. (vid link)" / Twitter

Except:
Pollution cuts life expectancy in India capital by 10 years: EPIC | Climate Crisis News | Al Jazeera - 14 Jun 2022 - "The US research body says PM2.5 pollution is reducing life expectancy in one of the world’s most polluted cities by nearly a decade."

"PM2.5 pollution – 2.5 microns across or less, roughly the diameter of a human hair – penetrates deep into the lungs and enters the bloodstream."

Toxic smog turns India's capital "into a gas chamber" - CBS News - November 4, 2022 / 9:00 AM

New Delhi — Authorities in India stepped up efforts on Friday to address deteriorating air quality as farmers burning crop stubble and calmer winter winds left a thick blanket of haze and smog to choke residents across the Delhi capital region. Factories, construction sites and primary schools were ordered to shut down and Delhi authorities urged people to work from home as dangerous fine particle pollution filled the air.

The Weather Channel on Twitter: "More than 200 wildfires are currently burning in Canada (pic link)" / Twitter
With a map -- the fires are in the southern half of that nation, except the Great Plains parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

 

[steve_bank]

I think social and political inertia is too big. Most of us will just keep on keeping on even as things get worse.

In local new the possble retrun of the NBA and the Supersonixs to Seattle, high exectaions and excitement around here.

Te NBA season is nearing an end, and now the local focus is on the Seahawks.

I don't think anything significant can be done. The climate changes are not going to be reversed to any significant level.

It doesn't take a PHD tp see we are seeing the the start of major socioeconomic shifts. Those outside the industrialized nations will suffer the worse at first, they already are.

Eventually food supplies will be affected even here in the USA.

Meanwhile the pop culture hyper decadence and consumption grows.

Like I am really soooo super excited about Apple's new VR headset.

In the words of Alfred E Neuman, 'What, me worry?".