"Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

[Jimmy Higgins]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/03/veteran-survived-coronavirus/

When William “Bill” Lapschies celebrated his 104th birthday with his family over chocolate cake and his favorite pizza on Wednesday, he wasn’t just marking another annual milestone in his long, full life. He was also celebrating a full recovery from the novel coronavirus as one of the oldest-known survivors of covid-19 in the United States.
.........

Does this indicate that if someone had the immune system to live through the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic then there is a good chance they can handle this pandemic too?

I’m awaiting Trump’s medical take on it first before forming my opinion.

Any word from Dr. Oz?

 

[J842P]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/03/veteran-survived-coronavirus/

When William “Bill” Lapschies celebrated his 104th birthday with his family over chocolate cake and his favorite pizza on Wednesday, he wasn’t just marking another annual milestone in his long, full life. He was also celebrating a full recovery from the novel coronavirus as one of the oldest-known survivors of covid-19 in the United States.
In early March, Lapschies and a small group of elderly tenants living together in a state-run veterans’ facility in Lebanon, Ore., started feeling ill. They were among the first Oregon residents to test positive for the coronavirus, and Lapschies’s family worried the illness would prove deadly.
“We all thought, ‘He’s 103, what are the odds he’s going to come out of this?’ ” granddaughter Jamie Yutzie told The Washington Post.
The coronavirus is particularly deadly among older people, who suffer fatal complications at a higher rate than young people who catch it, but some elderly patients have beat it. A 95-year-old man, also in Oregon, recovered last month after mild symptoms. In Seattle, a 90-year-old woman recovered after catching the virus at the Life Care Center senior facility, the hardest-hit nursing home in the early days of the U.S. outbreak.

There's sure to be many factors involved. No doubt, old age seems to be one, but people reach old age differently. I swear, my Korean friend's grandmother's haven't aged in the 20 years I've known them, and they are healthier than my friends!

On the other hand, I know a lot of people who reach 50 and look like they could be 70+. Generally, smoking, drinking, and poor diet seem to be common factors.

And also, coronaviruses are a pretty normal part of our viral repertoire. Perhaps there was some coronavirus that infected people back in the early part of the 20th century that conferred some defense to SARS-CoV-2. Then there are also just genetic factors in immunity (our immunological systems being some of the most diverse and rapidly evolving aspects of our genome).

 

[barbos]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-cytokine-storm-immune-system.html

The 42-year-old man arrived at a hospital in Paris on March 17 with a fever, cough and the “ground glass opacities” in both lungs that are a trademark of infection with the new coronavirus.

Two days later, his condition suddenly worsened and his oxygen levels dropped. His body, doctors suspected, was in the grip of a cytokine storm, a dangerous overreaction of the immune system. The phenomenon has become all too common in the coronavirus pandemic, but it is also pointing to potentially helpful drug treatments.

When the body first encounters a virus or a bacterium, the immune system ramps up and begins to fight the invader. The foot soldiers in this fight are molecules called cytokines that set off a cascade of signals to cells to marshal a response. Usually, the stronger this immune response, the stronger the chance of vanquishing the infection, which is partly why children and younger people are less vulnerable over all to coronavirus. And once the enemy is defeated, the immune system is hard-wired to shut itself off.

“For most people and most infections, that’s what happens,” said Dr. Randy Cron, an expert on cytokine storms at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

But in some cases — as much as 15 percent of people battling any serious infection, according to Dr. Cron’s team — the immune system keeps raging long after the virus is no longer a threat. It continues to release cytokines that keep the body on an exhausting full alert. In their misguided bid to keep the body safe, these cytokines attack multiple organs including the lungs and liver, and may eventually lead to death.

In these people, it’s their body’s response, rather than the virus, that ultimately causes harm.

Cytokine storms can overtake people of any age, but some scientists believe that they may explain why healthy young people died during the 1918 pandemic and more recently during the SARS, MERS and H1N1 epidemics.

I have Been meaning to add this information here. I read earlier today about a 29 year old male nurse practitioner who almost died from the virus. He was on life support for several days before he started to recover. He worked in mental health and has no idea how he came into contract with the virus. He was a body builder who didn't have as much as a cold in over 8 years. I wonder if he was experiencing a cytokine storm. This information just makes this damn virus even scarier. None of us should assume that we are too healthy or too young to die from this disease. Maybe this explains why some young, healthy people are dying or needing to be ventilated due to this virus. Of course, I'm just guessing, but this information is a bit disturbing.

I think it makes ventilators unnecessary, if people are dying because of immune system overreaction just suppress this particular immune response with drugs.
Also this idea is consistent with the fact that people with asthma at higher risk. And people who don't get sick. it all point toward it being cytokine storm

 

[repoman]

Ok, I have a question that is on the opposite end of the cytokine storm.

My knowledge of the immune system and viruses is shit now - as an aside any recommendations for a solid low jargon primer on this?

Now my question is this are *some* people not having fevers because they are NOT mounting an immune response? No immune response because no antibodies produced? No antibodies because this is different enough to be a curveball to some people's immune system?

Is the severe final stage fever for a non antibody producing patient an immune response to GENERAL damage or secondary infections wrought by the virus but not the virus itself?

 

[barbos]

Ok, I have a question that is on the opposite end of the cytokine storm.

My knowledge of the immune system and viruses is shit now - as an aside any recommendations for a solid low jargon primer on this?


Now my question is this are *some* people not having fevers because they are NOT mounting an immune response? No immune response because no antibodies produced? No antibodies because this is different enough to be a curveball to some people's immune system?

Is the severe final stage fever for a non antibody producing patient an immune response to GENERAL damage or secondary infections wrought by the virus but not the virus itself?

I believe that at least younger people die due to basically suffocating because lungs capacity is greatly diminished. Oh I forgot about very young children, the fact that they don't seem to be dying also and very strongly points toward cytokine storm.

 

[repoman]

Yeah, isn't there some blood sampling or biopsy that can show if there is a cytokine storm?

 

[barbos]

Yeah, isn't there some blood sampling or biopsy that can show if there is a cytokine storm?

Sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome
Looks like it's pretty common thing. And symptoms fits well.
I mean, how come most (supposedly) people have very mild symptoms and others just die?
It's a new virus, nobody have real immunity for it. Drastic differences in reaction are suspicious.

 

[Jokodo]

unrecorded deaths

Local paper "Eco di Bergamo" has calculated that around 5400 people died of all causes in the province of Bergamo (1.1 million inhabitants) in March this year. That's up from around 900 in the month of March during previous years. This suggests a much higher victim count than official figures suggest: The difference to previous years is 4500, while officially recorded COVID-19 deaths in the province are "only" 2060, less by a factor of about 2.2.


4500 is 0.4% of the province's population, so that is also a very hard lower limit for CFR if and when the system collapses as it did in Lombardy: Assuming no one else dies (counterfactual people already have died in the first few days of April, though the curve is stagnating or slightly trending downward, so plausibly the deaths already recorded represent 2/3 up to 3/4 of the total during this wave), and assuming everyone in the province contracted the virus at some point.

More plausible assumptions, 1/3 of deaths still to come and 40% of the province's population having been infected, we get a CFR of 1.3-1.4, assuming 20% got infected brings us between 2.5 and 3%.

https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories...s-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/

 

[bilby]

Yeah, isn't there some blood sampling or biopsy that can show if there is a cytokine storm?

Sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome
Looks like it's pretty common thing. And symptoms fits well.
I mean, how come most (supposedly) people have very mild symptoms and others just die?
It's a new virus, nobody have real immunity for it. Drastic differences in reaction are suspicious.

Not really; many zoonotic viral infections massively change in virulence depending on how many human hosts they have passed through.

The 1918 influenza pandemic first presented as an unusually mild form of flu; And then went fucking nuts.

Many other influenza and coronavirus infections have gone the other way, being highly lethal to their first victims, and then becoming mild.

Ebola tends to do that too. New strains in humans are deadly, but after a dozen or so human hosts in the chain of infection, survival rates skyrocket, and the disease becomes less of a concern.

In a new pandemic, it's to be expected that virulence will be patchy.

 

[Jokodo]

Pigs and chicken should be kept separate and in small fully quarantined groups at all time.

That sounds like a great idea. How do you plan to enforce this in China, where many people still live in close proximity to both, and huge numbers of both are traded, live, in busy markets? Live meat is the only guaranteed fresh meat for most Chinese consumers. Banning the intermingling of live pigs and chickens would be at best hugely unpopular, and could easily lead to significant numbers of deaths from food poisoning, and/or a severe reduction in the quality and quantity of food available to ordinary chinese citizens.

China is a totalitarian regime, aren't they?
Meanwhile 440 infected and 9 dead. And it transmits between humans.

Remember when there were 440 infected (a assume globally) and 9 dead (all in China)?

Today China is no longer in the top 5 countries by (officially reported) cases - that would be Italy, Spain, US, France, UK, with Iran on track to also overtake China today. 3 more countries have 4 digit death counts, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium.

 

[barbos]

Yeah, isn't there some blood sampling or biopsy that can show if there is a cytokine storm?

Sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome
Looks like it's pretty common thing. And symptoms fits well.
I mean, how come most (supposedly) people have very mild symptoms and others just die?
It's a new virus, nobody have real immunity for it. Drastic differences in reaction are suspicious.

Not really; many zoonotic viral infections massively change in virulence depending on how many human hosts they have passed through.

The 1918 influenza pandemic first presented as an unusually mild form of flu; And then went fucking nuts.

Many other influenza and coronavirus infections have gone the other way, being highly lethal to their first victims, and then becoming mild.

Ebola tends to do that too. New strains in humans are deadly, but after a dozen or so human hosts in the chain of infection, survival rates skyrocket, and the disease becomes less of a concern.

In a new pandemic, it's to be expected that virulence will be patchy.

Well, it was reported that COVID-19 does not mutate much, so it's pretty stable and the same among population, yet we have some older folk who weathered it through rather easily and younger who are dead or on ventilators. Initial chinese data about young not being affected I think was simply inaccurate or exaggerated.

 

[barbos]

China is a totalitarian regime, aren't they?
Meanwhile 440 infected and 9 dead. And it transmits between humans.

Remember when there were 440 infected (a assume globally) and 9 dead (all in China)?

Today China is no longer in the top 5 countries by (officially reported) cases - that would be Italy, Spain, US, France, UK, with Iran on track to also overtake China today. 3 more countries have 4 digit death counts, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium.

Yes I remember I was among these first who was worried.
Also I think number of deaths in China is most certainly under-reported . They may very well be still in top 3. But I can't deny that totalitarian regime keeps it under control, at least for now.

 

[Jokodo]

China is a totalitarian regime, aren't they?
Meanwhile 440 infected and 9 dead. And it transmits between humans.

Remember when there were 440 infected (a assume globally) and 9 dead (all in China)?

Today China is no longer in the top 5 countries by (officially reported) cases - that would be Italy, Spain, US, France, UK, with Iran on track to also overtake China today. 3 more countries have 4 digit death counts, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium.

Yes I remember I was among these first who was worried.
Also I think number of deaths in China is most certainly under-reported . They may very well be still in top 3. But I can't deny that totalitarian regime keeps it under control, at least for now.

The number of deaths in Iran and Italy is most certainly under-reported too.

I wonder if there is any country where this is not the case?

 

[bilby]

Not really; many zoonotic viral infections massively change in virulence depending on how many human hosts they have passed through.

The 1918 influenza pandemic first presented as an unusually mild form of flu; And then went fucking nuts.

Many other influenza and coronavirus infections have gone the other way, being highly lethal to their first victims, and then becoming mild.

Ebola tends to do that too. New strains in humans are deadly, but after a dozen or so human hosts in the chain of infection, survival rates skyrocket, and the disease becomes less of a concern.

In a new pandemic, it's to be expected that virulence will be patchy.

Well, it was reported that COVID-19 does not mutate much, so it's pretty stable and the same among population, yet we have some older folk who weathered it through rather easily and younger who are dead or on ventilators. Initial chinese data about young not being affected I think was simply inaccurate or exaggerated.

Sure, there's always a "fog of war" effect with any new pandemic. If we really want to know what happened in the initial stages of the pandemic, we will need to wait and read the histories written in the early 2100s. Sadly we don't have the luxury of a hundred years of calm reflection and analysis of the primary sources. So we are left taking our best punt, based on limited and often contradictory information.

 

[barbos]

Yes I remember I was among these first who was worried.
Also I think number of deaths in China is most certainly under-reported . They may very well be still in top 3. But I can't deny that totalitarian regime keeps it under control, at least for now.

The number of deaths in Iran and Italy is most certainly under-reported too.

I wonder if there is any country where this is not the case?

In China it is knowingly under-reported. In Italy they just have no means to report every case, people are dying at home.

 

[Jokodo]

Yes I remember I was among these first who was worried.
Also I think number of deaths in China is most certainly under-reported . They may very well be still in top 3. But I can't deny that totalitarian regime keeps it under control, at least for now.

The number of deaths in Iran and Italy is most certainly under-reported too.

I wonder if there is any country where this is not the case?

In China it is knowingly under-reported. In Italy they just have no means to report every case, people are dying at home.

And you know this how?

I concede it is a plausible hypothesis, the Chinese authority have been caught lying before. But plausibility is no substitute for evidence.

 

[barbos]

In China it is knowingly under-reported. In Italy they just have no means to report every case, people are dying at home.

And you know this how?

I concede it is a plausible hypothesis, the Chinese authority have been caught lying before. But plausibility is no substitute for evidence.

Right, you want me to go to China and conduct the investigation?
Sorry, I don't speak Chinese and there is a quarantine in both Russia and China.

 

[Jokodo]

In China it is knowingly under-reported. In Italy they just have no means to report every case, people are dying at home.

And you know this how?

I concede it is a plausible hypothesis, the Chinese authority have been caught lying before. But plausibility is no substitute for evidence.

Right, you want me to go to China and conduct the investigation?
Sorry, I don't speak Chinese and there is a quarantine in both Russia and China.

No, I want you to not present you supposition as fact.

You have a science background, right? Just apply basic principles of evidence-based reasoning in other domains too and we're good.

 

[barbos]

Right, you want me to go to China and conduct the investigation?
Sorry, I don't speak Chinese and there is a quarantine in both Russia and China.

No, I want you to not present you supposition as fact.

You have a science background, right? Just apply basic principles of evidence-based reasoning in other domains too and we're good.

Maybe I am a theorist? or even hypothesists

And that computer animated fireworks during Olympic games there

 

[Jokodo]

Right, you want me to go to China and conduct the investigation?
Sorry, I don't speak Chinese and there is a quarantine in both Russia and China.

No, I want you to not present you supposition as fact.

You have a science background, right? Just apply basic principles of evidence-based reasoning in other domains too and we're good.

Maybe I am a theorist? or even hypothesists

And that computer animated fireworks during Olympic games there

Just a run-of-the-mill conspiracy theorist, as far as I can tell.

Just because, in this case, the conclusion might very well be true doesn't make the reasoning sound.