Covid-19 miscellany

[Harry Bosch]

Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients.

Guidelines are not based on a single study but on all available evidence, even unpublished evidence with something like this.

Despite the anti-mask and anti-vaccine insanity that made this thing much worse doctors and scientists have saved every life that was saved. They gave us the vaccines that are now making the problem smaller.

I blame the Capitalists!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Interesting new precedent now to have previously, provably infected people to get a vaccine.

I got lucky to not be infected with covid and got vaccinated. It is not fair to require someone with antibodies they earned at great risk to take on more risk.

This is the adult version of zero tolerance that we have subjected students to in the US since the 1990s.

Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.19.21255739v1.full

How do you know you didn’t get Covid-19?

 

[untermensche]

Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients.

Guidelines are not based on a single study but on all available evidence, even unpublished evidence with something like this.

Despite the anti-mask and anti-vaccine insanity that made this thing much worse doctors and scientists have saved every life that was saved. They gave us the vaccines that are now making the problem smaller.

I blame the Capitalists!

They always make things worse.

It is the anti-capitalists that make life bearable for most.

The capitalists didn't like the idea of not chaining children to work stations 14 hours a day.

 

[bilby]

Interesting new precedent now to have previously, provably infected people to get a vaccine.

I got lucky to not be infected with covid and got vaccinated. It is not fair to require someone with antibodies they earned at great risk to take on more risk.

This is the adult version of zero tolerance that we have subjected students to in the US since the 1990s.

Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.19.21255739v1.full

"It's not fair" is the exact opposite of an adult argument.

And Zero Tolerance policies are not only stupid, but are a violation of the separation of powers, in that they consist of legislators (or their delegates, the regulators) dictating globally things that are properly the responsibility of the judiciary to consider on a case by case basis. Neither students nor anyone else would be subject to such policies in a free and just society. But mandatory vaccinations are not an example of a zero tolerance policy, they are an example of a qualification to work in a given role.

Just as requiring drivers to hold a driver's license isn't a zero tolerance policy - anyone who objects to getting a license cannot be forced to do so, but they can be prohibited from operating a motor vehicle on a public road. Similarly, anyone who objects to being vaccinated is at liberty to remain unvaccinated (though not immune to being called stupid), but they can't work at places that require vaccinations as a minimum qualification.

 

[DrZoidberg]

That vaccine reaction is no joke.

In my case it lasted just one night.

Was the same for me. But due to the lack of sleep I was destroyed the next day. I'm fine now.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet will extend their strict lockdown rules. I'm sorry, but that's idiotic. All the at risks are safe now. At this point it's hardly about protecting people. It's looks more and more like a neurotic obsession with control. Yes, I know that Covid-19 is now spiking in the population. But nobody is going to die from this now. It's no longer about protecting the weak. The weak are fine now. Getting Covid-19 is more about how willing you are to take personal risks. And adults should be allowed to make these judgements for themselves IMHO.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...A~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~MAR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~DNK~SWE

Today Denmark went back to normal. The only restrictions is, no gatherings with more than 500 people, masks in Copenhagen subways. While people are encouraged to continue to work from home, employers are now able to order staff to work from the office, at their discretion.

Yay, freedom. It feels great to be able to enjoy the summer. It feels like a delayed 2020 summer

 

[Rhea]

You are saying that at this point there will no longer be any COVID deaths in UK?
That’s remarkable.

No more long haulers either?

And all because 44% are vaccinated?

Great news. I guess we’ll know by the end of the week if it’s bullshit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet will extend their strict lockdown rules. I'm sorry, but that's idiotic.

Yeah. I mean, everyone knows you take down the floodgates after the rain stops... not when the flooding stops. Otherwise you are being idiotic!

Is it that hard to get that you remove precautions AFTER the risk is over? IE, once we are at herd immunity levels?

 

[TSwizzle]

You are saying that at this point there will no longer be any COVID deaths in UK?
That’s remarkable.

No more long haulers either?

And all because 44% are vaccinated?

Great news. I guess we’ll know by the end of the week if it’s bullshit.

So when should restrictions be lifted ? When there are no covid deaths ? When immortality has been achieved ? No covid cases ever ?

These restriction were supposedly put in place to "protect the NHS", to prevent the hospital services from being overwhelmed. That was achieved some time ago, there is no reason to prolong these restrictions.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

But 44% is shitty!


When your stated goal is 70%, but you only get 44%, that's only 44/70 ~= 62.9% of the way to the stated goal.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

There is going to be a publication of a paper and it there is an early version available:
Identification of novel bat coronaviruses sheds light on the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses

I haven't read the whole thing yet.

I found that the pre-print has been available since mid-March. The paper has been going through the phases of publication with the peer-reviewed journal Cell. It became approved on June 3rd. Not sure exactly when it will be published but that's the status.

Here are highlights from the paper which was already linked:

Highlights

• Four novel SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were identified in rhinolophid bats.
• RpYN06 is the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 in most of the virus genome.
• A high diversity of bat coronaviruses was present in a very small geographic area.
• Ecological modeling reveals a broad range of rhinolophid bats in parts of Asia.

A study of 411 bat samples collected in Yunnan province, China between 2019-2020 yields 24 full length coronavirus genomes, including 4 viruses highly related to SARS-CoV-2 and 3 to SARS. The closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 is infects a species of bats that are found in regions that extend from South Laos and Vietnam to southern China.

It is interesting how far-reaching the bats are that have different coronaviruses. It's also interesting that a few of these have been related to cov2, but some are very divergent from this group.

Here is what Johns Hopkins has summarized about the paper (it's not their paper):

...Of the 26 sequences, 9 were identified as the genus Betacoronavirus and 17 were genus Alphacoronavirus. All 9 betacoronaviruses were related to SARS-CoV or SARS-CoV-2. PCR tests confirmed that 9 individual samples from Rhinolophus malayanus, R. pusillus, and R. stheno sampled between May and July 2020 were positive for betacoronaviruses. Two viruses (RmYN01 and RmYN02) closely related to SARS-CoV-2 from one pool of fecal samples from R. malayanus were described previously (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.05.023). Three viruses shared between 91.6 and 93.3% sequence identity across the genome with SARS-CoV and other related viruses from bats sampled previously in Yunnan. Four viruses (RpYN06, RsYN04, RmYN05, and RmYN08) were more similar to SARS-CoV-2. RpYN06 from R. pusillus shared 94.5% sequence identity with SARS-CoV-2 across the genome while the latter three were more distantly related to SARS-CoV-2 and were more similar to pangolin coronaviruses...

...

Paired with the ecological modeling of Rhinolophus species ranges, this manuscript contributed to existing evidence that Yunnan and other parts of Southeast Asia are regions with high diversity of Rhinolophus species and are likely important hotspots for betacoronavirus diversity. Nevertheless, the viruses amplified do not provide evidence that bats harbor the direct ancestor of SARS-CoV-2. Even though the described RpYN06 virus was 94.5% similar to SARS-CoV-2 across the whole genome, this virus is still too genetically divergent to be the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2...

 

[bilby]

The UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet will extend their strict lockdown rules. I'm sorry, but that's idiotic. All the at risks are safe now. At this point it's hardly about protecting people. It's looks more and more like a neurotic obsession with control. Yes, I know that Covid-19 is now spiking in the population. But nobody is going to die from this now. It's no longer about protecting the weak. The weak are fine now. Getting Covid-19 is more about how willing you are to take personal risks. And adults should be allowed to make these judgements for themselves IMHO.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...A~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~MAR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~DNK~SWE

Today Denmark went back to normal. The only restrictions is, no gatherings with more than 500 people, masks in Copenhagen subways. While people are encouraged to continue to work from home, employers are now able to order staff to work from the office, at their discretion.

Yay, freedom. It feels great to be able to enjoy the summer. It feels like a delayed 2020 summer

Unless you made a typo when writing "94%", you are very badly mistaken.

Death isn't the only bad outcome that could occur. If just a tiny fraction of the currently healthy UK population needed hospital treatment all at once, the NHS would be overwhelmed, and deaths due to unavailability of hospital care would skyrocket. The NHS was already under serious stress due to underfunding before Covid. And then Brexit eliminated a large fraction of the nursing and janitorial staff, who have yet to be replaced. A lot of the British government mismanagement of the pandemic has been due to fears that the NHS might fail catastrophically. That risk hasn't been eliminated yet.

And with over 50% unvaccinated, there would be considerably more than a tiny fraction of the population turning up at hospitals. Even if they are unlikely to die if given basic care, they would still be a major problem.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What about lab verified antibodies to a previous covid infection?

The problem is variants.

Your body produces antibodies, but you don't control what part of the virus the antibodies target. If the body attacks the spike protein, fine, the infection-conferred resistance is as good as the vaccine. However, there's no guarantee that's what happens. If the body targets something else that changes you won't be protected against the variant that changed that part of the virus. We have seen this in the field--prior infection doesn't provide decent protection against some variants.

There's always a chance the spike protein mutates sufficiently to evade the vaccine, but that's nowhere near as likely as the other parts changing.

 

[DrZoidberg]

You are saying that at this point there will no longer be any COVID deaths in UK?
That’s remarkable.

No more long haulers either?

And all because 44% are vaccinated?

Great news. I guess we’ll know by the end of the week if it’s bullshit.

No, Covid right now is spiking in the UK. Because Brits have started to go to the pub and socialise like normal. But the at risks are all vaccinated. The risk of dying of Covid in the UK is now very low. I find it hard to justify a lockdown with limited gains.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet will extend their strict lockdown rules. I'm sorry, but that's idiotic. All the at risks are safe now. At this point it's hardly about protecting people. It's looks more and more like a neurotic obsession with control. Yes, I know that Covid-19 is now spiking in the population. But nobody is going to die from this now. It's no longer about protecting the weak. The weak are fine now. Getting Covid-19 is more about how willing you are to take personal risks. And adults should be allowed to make these judgements for themselves IMHO.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...A~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~MAR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~DNK~SWE

Today Denmark went back to normal. The only restrictions is, no gatherings with more than 500 people, masks in Copenhagen subways. While people are encouraged to continue to work from home, employers are now able to order staff to work from the office, at their discretion.

Yay, freedom. It feels great to be able to enjoy the summer. It feels like a delayed 2020 summer

Unless you made a typo when writing "94%", you are very badly mistaken.

Death isn't the only bad outcome that could occur. If just a tiny fraction of the currently healthy UK population needed hospital treatment all at once, the NHS would be overwhelmed, and deaths due to unavailability of hospital care would skyrocket. The NHS was already under serious stress due to underfunding before Covid. And then Brexit eliminated a large fraction of the nursing and janitorial staff, who have yet to be replaced. A lot of the British government mismanagement of the pandemic has been due to fears that the NHS might fail catastrophically. That risk hasn't been eliminated yet.

And with over 50% unvaccinated, there would be considerably more than a tiny fraction of the population turning up at hospitals. Even if they are unlikely to die if given basic care, they would still be a major problem.

Even if the hospitals get overwhelmed mortality will be low. A lot of people will show up with difficulty breathing but who are not in a life threatening situation. It's more annoying than dangerous. That's what can overwhelm the hospitals.

They give them valium and sometimes oxygen

 

[bilby]

The UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet will extend their strict lockdown rules. I'm sorry, but that's idiotic. All the at risks are safe now. At this point it's hardly about protecting people. It's looks more and more like a neurotic obsession with control. Yes, I know that Covid-19 is now spiking in the population. But nobody is going to die from this now. It's no longer about protecting the weak. The weak are fine now. Getting Covid-19 is more about how willing you are to take personal risks. And adults should be allowed to make these judgements for themselves IMHO.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...A~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~MAR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~DNK~SWE

Today Denmark went back to normal. The only restrictions is, no gatherings with more than 500 people, masks in Copenhagen subways. While people are encouraged to continue to work from home, employers are now able to order staff to work from the office, at their discretion.

Yay, freedom. It feels great to be able to enjoy the summer. It feels like a delayed 2020 summer

Unless you made a typo when writing "94%", you are very badly mistaken.

Death isn't the only bad outcome that could occur. If just a tiny fraction of the currently healthy UK population needed hospital treatment all at once, the NHS would be overwhelmed, and deaths due to unavailability of hospital care would skyrocket. The NHS was already under serious stress due to underfunding before Covid. And then Brexit eliminated a large fraction of the nursing and janitorial staff, who have yet to be replaced. A lot of the British government mismanagement of the pandemic has been due to fears that the NHS might fail catastrophically. That risk hasn't been eliminated yet.

And with over 50% unvaccinated, there would be considerably more than a tiny fraction of the population turning up at hospitals. Even if they are unlikely to die if given basic care, they would still be a major problem.

Even if the hospitals get overwhelmed mortality will be low. A lot of people will show up with difficulty breathing but who are not in a life threatening situation. It's more annoying than dangerous. That's what can overwhelm the hospitals.

They give them valium and sometimes oxygen

9.7 deaths a day in the UK is vastly lower than a few months ago; But it's still horrific.

Humans have a very worrying ability to get used to things that really shouldn't be considered acceptable.

 

[repoman]

What about lab verified antibodies to a previous covid infection?

The problem is variants.

Your body produces antibodies, but you don't control what part of the virus the antibodies target. If the body attacks the spike protein, fine, the infection-conferred resistance is as good as the vaccine. However, there's no guarantee that's what happens. If the body targets something else that changes you won't be protected against the variant that changed that part of the virus. We have seen this in the field--prior infection doesn't provide decent protection against some variants.

There's always a chance the spike protein mutates sufficiently to evade the vaccine, but that's nowhere near as likely as the other parts changing.

The actual infection will cause antibodies/t-cells/etc for parts other than the spike protein to form, which is more than the Pfizer vaccine which I received can do. It makes the human body produce ZERO response to the other aspects of the virus.

What the fuck do you want? This is pathetic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-00923-3


In a couple years if they decide to put more epitopes into an mRNA vaccine then they can get to the level of natural infection immunity.

 

[repoman]

Even if the hospitals get overwhelmed mortality will be low. A lot of people will show up with difficulty breathing but who are not in a life threatening situation. It's more annoying than dangerous. That's what can overwhelm the hospitals.

They give them valium and sometimes oxygen

9.7 deaths a day in the UK is vastly lower than a few months ago; But it's still horrific.

Humans have a very worrying ability to get used to things that really shouldn't be considered acceptable.

What is your acceptable number of deaths a day?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

The UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet will extend their strict lockdown rules. I'm sorry, but that's idiotic. All the at risks are safe now. At this point it's hardly about protecting people. It's looks more and more like a neurotic obsession with control. Yes, I know that Covid-19 is now spiking in the population. But nobody is going to die from this now. It's no longer about protecting the weak. The weak are fine now. Getting Covid-19 is more about how willing you are to take personal risks. And adults should be allowed to make these judgements for themselves IMHO.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...A~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~MAR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~DNK~SWE

Today Denmark went back to normal. The only restrictions is, no gatherings with more than 500 people, masks in Copenhagen subways. While people are encouraged to continue to work from home, employers are now able to order staff to work from the office, at their discretion.

Yay, freedom. It feels great to be able to enjoy the summer. It feels like a delayed 2020 summer

Unless you made a typo when writing "94%", you are very badly mistaken.

Death isn't the only bad outcome that could occur. If just a tiny fraction of the currently healthy UK population needed hospital treatment all at once, the NHS would be overwhelmed, and deaths due to unavailability of hospital care would skyrocket. The NHS was already under serious stress due to underfunding before Covid. And then Brexit eliminated a large fraction of the nursing and janitorial staff, who have yet to be replaced. A lot of the British government mismanagement of the pandemic has been due to fears that the NHS might fail catastrophically. That risk hasn't been eliminated yet.

And with over 50% unvaccinated, there would be considerably more than a tiny fraction of the population turning up at hospitals. Even if they are unlikely to die if given basic care, they would still be a major problem.

Hold on though...I feel like I was misled by these numbers. Maybe you were, too, because these aren't the way they are typically done.

Their denominator is total population as opposed to people 18 years and over:


So, first, consider Israel which is at the top of the chart (if you click Zoidberg's link). That chart on his cited page has Israel slightly less than 60% but if you look at 18 and over they are at around 80% which is pretty good:
Israel offers a glimpse of life after herd immunity: With 80% of adults vaccinated, cases have dropped to 15 per day

The only problem I see is that in the West Bank and Palestinian territories there is like a 5% vaccination rate. Without saying who is responsible--because that will create a 100 page derail--it's an issue that someone somewhen has to address. However, the 80% versus 60% kind of shows the difference in how one number may look inadequate but when you consider it out of adults, suddenly it isn't that bad.

So, now, consider the UK...the country in Zoidberg's discussion...

The UK is quite a bit more complicated AND DIFFERENT than a single number of 44%. Here is a good chart:


If the UK continues to follow its policies and continues to be patient, then in a matter of weeks, the vast majority of those adults with just one dose will be up to 2 doses and they will be at well over 70% of adults having 2 doses.

And that would be excellent position if we were still dealing with the same problem, but right now the dominant strain in the UK is the new Delta variant which is somewhat resistant to the vaccines, especially AstraZeneca, and especially 1-dose of Pfizer/Moderna/anyOfIt which is only 33% effective against the variant.

I also am expecting that people who only have 1 dose already know this, are concerned about their health, and are trying to be patient by following the rules....which may be why the death count is so small right now in addition to all the vaccinations curbing numbers.

Reopening would be a bad idea right now because we don't want an Epsilon variant created by selection pressure against the 1-dosers. People with 1-dose and no-dose should be very restricted and those with 2-doses should be way less restricted but hopefully in a few weeks, things could change.

 

[bilby]

Even if the hospitals get overwhelmed mortality will be low. A lot of people will show up with difficulty breathing but who are not in a life threatening situation. It's more annoying than dangerous. That's what can overwhelm the hospitals.

They give them valium and sometimes oxygen

9.7 deaths a day in the UK is vastly lower than a few months ago; But it's still horrific.

Humans have a very worrying ability to get used to things that really shouldn't be considered acceptable.

What is your acceptable number of deaths a day?

Australia has had two deaths from Covid so far in 2021. Call it 0.01 deaths per day. That seems like an acceptable number, though obviously even fewer would be better.