Democrats 2020

[PyramidHead]

Cross-section of the DNC frontrunners circa 25 October 2019

Elizabeth Warren can win the presidency because she’s gotten ‘softer’ on the rich, billionaire Democratic donor says

“I think she’s pivoting. I think she could win the election because she’s smart, she’s witty and she seems to be the best candidate on the stump,” said Michael Novogratz, a former hedge fund manager who invests in cryptocurrency. “I think her recent language ... is a lot softer than ‘all billionaires cheat.’”

Novogratz said Warren is not his top choice in the 2020 race, and he suggested that he would like to see more of a centrist get the Democratic nomination.

A Warren campaign representative didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

While Novogratz has not officially backed any candidate, campaign donation records show he gave the maximum $2,800 to Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Sept. 27.

CNN Poll: Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April

Registered voters generally give Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg large advantages over President Donald Trump in hypothetical general election matchups. Biden leads the President by 10 points, 53% to 43%, with Sanders up 9 (52% to 43%) and Warren up 8 (52% to 44%). Buttigieg holds a 6-point edge, 50% to 44%.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from October 17 through 20 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 424 registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. For results among potential Democratic voters, it is plus or minus 5.8 points.

Bernie Sanders released a plan to legalize marijuana (at 4:20 pm)

First, Sanders would sign an executive order directing the attorney general to declassify marijuana as a controlled substance — removing it from the drug scheduling system and effectively legalizing weed at the federal level. (For more on how this could work, read Gabrielle Gurley’s piece at the American Prospect.)

Sanders would then push Congress to pass a bill to “ensure permanent legalization of marijuana.” After it’s legalized at the federal level, states would also still need to legalize within their own borders.

Some presidential powers are monarchic after all.

 

[Derec]

What Happened To The Kamala Harris Campaign? | FiveThirtyEight - not very successful recently.

It’s too early to write Harris off; she remains well-liked by Democratic voters and has raised enough money to keep her campaign running for months. In other words, she is decently positioned to make gains if one of the top three candidates falters, or if she can create another moment, like in the first debate, that gets Democrats excited about her.

That moment that got some "Democrats excited about her" was in my opinion the beginning of her downfall. Attacking Biden on busing generated buzz, but it could not be sustained as the policy was a) from 40 years ago and refighting those battles is not forward-looking, b) policy was unpopular across racial lines.

1. 2020 was never going to be her year in the first place

I think she had a good shot making 2020 her year, had she played to her strengths, but she screwed up.

2. Biden and Warren are just really strong candidates

I don't think Biden is fundamentally a strong candidate. Last time he ran, he got 0.9% in Iowa. He withdrew before the New Hampshire primary. This time he is 12 years older and only younger than Sanders by a year. He is the default option for those looking for an electable, moderate candidate. A placeholder unless and until a better option emerges from the crucible of the primary season. Kamala could have been that candidate had she not tried to be the "blacker than thou" candidate instead.
I don't think Warren is fundamentally that strong either. She can't even clear her own lefty orbit even though her challenger for it is 78 and just suffered a heart attack.

3. Harris has not run a good campaign

Here I agree with Bacon. Instead of playing to her strengths, she tried to straddle left and middle and she failed miserably at performing the split. Less Jean Claude van Damme and more Officer Jenko (2? Jump Street).
Stay in your lane, lady!

4. She’s a woman of color in a party wary of nominating someone who it feels won’t connect with white voters in the Midwest in the general election

Hell to the no.
If Obama could excel among white guys in the Midwest, why would Kamala's skin color be a detriment to her?


It doesn't make sense.
She could have used her ancestry and family to show unity across racial and ethnic lines, instead of divisive identity politics. Instead, she dove head-first into the deep end of identity politics and is now struggling to come up for air.

KH looks like she could easily call herself white, and she has largely Caucasoid ancestry. But she's culturally black, it seems, a sort of inverse Oreo.

I don't even think she is that much "culturally black" as she portrayed herself during this campaign. After all, she married a white guy.

But she decided to be "blacker than thou" (failed attempt at positioning vis-a-vis Booker?), calling Michael Brown killing "murder" (even though as a prosecutor she knows better), saying she listened to Biggie and Tupac before they released any music, and attacking Biden on busing.

Would Elizabeth Warren Or Bernie Sanders Move To The Center Against Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

Yes, there is definitely a very limited range a candidate may move to the middle without losing credibility. Which is why Warren or Sanders would be such risky nominees.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Kamala's skin color isn't a detriment, but it fails to be a benefit due to her history as a prosecutor. It would be better to choose a different woman of color.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

There's no doubt that I'll vote for Bernie if he is the nominee with the hope that his administration and the democratic congress can moderate his views.

Then Bernie doesn't need to do anything differently to appeal to you or any other moderate Democrat, case closed.

Not sure that I understand your point. I'll vote for the democratic candidate. But I'm a moderate and prefer someone who is more business friendly than Bernie or Warren.

Well Warren is. She pivoted her rhetoric to the far left to capture the Bernie voters, but she's always been a standard corporate Democrat whose only advantage over Biden has been "vagina".

 

[lpetrich]

DNC Bosses Contemplating a Superdelegate Coup if Bernie Sanders Leads in Delegates

On Tuesday, the Times‘ Jonathan Martin published an in-depth look into how the party’s leadership is coping with the seemingly unstoppable surge Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) is currently experiencing, going from a fringe radical candidate in 2016 to the clear frontrunner in 2020. Martin’s report shows the party establishment — as well as its chief operatives, like David Brock — is convinced an avowed Democratic socialist like Sanders would lose the general election to President Trump if nominated. And as of right now, Sanders enjoys a strong early lead.

...
By design, the superdelegate system is there to give a boost to the establishment’s favored candidate. In Martin’s article for the Times, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan), who is a DNC superdelegate, admitted that, while reluctant to do so, she may use her vote to kneecap Sanders on the second ballot.

quoting

Should no bargain be struck by the time of the first roll call vote at the 2020 convention in Milwaukee — such as a unity ticket between a pair of the leading delegate-winners — the nomination battle would move to a second ballot. And under the new rules crafted after the 2016 race, that is when the party insiders and elected officials known as superdelegates would be able to cast a binding vote.

The specter of superdelegates deciding the nomination, particularly if Mr. Sanders is a finalist, is highly unappetizing to party officials.

“If we have a role, so be it, but I’d much prefer that it be decided in the first round, just from a unity standpoint,” said Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan.

A repeat of 2016?

 

[ZiprHead]

Not sure that I understand your point. I'll vote for the democratic candidate. But I'm a moderate and prefer someone who is more business friendly than Bernie or Warren.

Well Warren is. She pivoted her rhetoric to the far left to capture the Bernie voters, but she's always been a standard corporate Democrat whose only advantage over Biden has been "vagina".

Why do you think Warren is a "standard corporate Democrat"?

 

[blastula]

nm

 

[Derec]

Kamala's skin color isn't a detriment, but it fails to be a benefit due to her history as a prosecutor. It would be better to choose a different woman of color.

Like Warren? I wonder what her Cherokee name would be?

 

[Derec]

Elizabeth Warren can win the presidency because she’s gotten ‘softer’ on the rich, billionaire Democratic donor says

She may be going softer on the billionaires, but she is still hard on US energy sector.
There may be no industry with more at stake with an Elizabeth Warren presidency than energy

As part of the transition to cleaner energy, Warren’s vowed to prohibit new oil drilling leases for offshore and federal land, and she’s said she would ban hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, entirely.
This is a drastic departure from how the energy sector in the United States currently operates, so the impact could be felt in a number of ways. Smaller exploration and production companies with drilling operations heavily exposed to federal lands would likely be among the hardest hit.
[...]
But since supply and demand drives the price of oil in the United States, supply constraints could then drive up the price of oil. This, in turn, would help large, integrated oil companies like Exxon and Chevron. Natural gas could be another beneficiary in a transition to clean energy since it produces fewer greenhouse gases than other fossil fuels.

The penultimate sentence is a reminder of unintended consequences of bad policies. I disagree however about the last sentence about natural gas. Today, over 2/3 of US gas is fracked. If Warren bans fracking, natural gas will become much more scarce and thus expensive.

But the biggest windfall from a Warren administration could be for renewable energy. Alternatives like solar and wind power are already gaining traction, and Warren’s energy platform depends on a rapid shift to clean energy. If the country is to become carbon-neutral by 2050, there will have to be a lot of investment — and fast — in renewable energy.

Renewable energy can generate electricity (and there are problems even with that due to intermittency and storage), but without electric cars you can't use renewables to replace gasoline. And electric cars are still a small fraction of new car sales (and even smaller fraction of cars on the road) and they are mostly bought by those better off. The biggest losers under Warren's energy plans will not only be small fracking operations, but also working and lower middle class people who buy used cars and not new Teslas.

CNN Poll: Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April

Good for him, but I think his support is broad but shallow. Many Democrats like Joe well enough, but few are exciting about him. Plus his age is surely a factor.

Bernie Sanders released a plan to legalize marijuana (at 4:20 pm)

 

[PyramidHead]

Not sure that I understand your point. I'll vote for the democratic candidate. But I'm a moderate and prefer someone who is more business friendly than Bernie or Warren.

Well Warren is. She pivoted her rhetoric to the far left to capture the Bernie voters, but she's always been a standard corporate Democrat whose only advantage over Biden has been "vagina".

Why do you think Warren is a "standard corporate Democrat"?

I agree that's a little unfair to Warren, but she's a liberal instead of a socialist, which means she believes capitalism is fundamentally a good system and markets are what drive prosperity, we just need to implement and enforce the right guidelines. That's a lot more of a corporate-friendly stance than the one taken by Sanders, which says that capitalism is dysfunctional and needs to be transitioned into something different on a structural level. But even Sanders is a social democrat instead of a socialist, in the end.

 

[lpetrich]

At Bernie Sanders’ Kickoff Rally, Campaign Co-Chair Gives Shout-Out to Atheists | Hemant Mehta | Friendly Atheist | Patheos - that's Nina Turner

… and so I say, Brooklyn, that you should be proud that the son of this city has been standing on the front lines for a very long time. Standing up for working people in this country. Black, white, brown, red, yellow, and the swirl in between. Gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, queer. Jew, gentile, Christian, Buddhist, atheist. Standing up for the people! That’s the measure of a man.

When Will Democratic Presidential Candidates Hire a Secular Outreach Director? | Sarahbeth Caplin | Friendly Atheist | Patheos

“The conversation about religion and politics has been dominated by one particular type of religion. … It can be so much more,” [Foster] said. “I want to make sure the campaign is really reaching out to faiths that typically haven’t had much say in politics — Native American spirituality, Sikh spirituality, Bahais.”

It will be Foster’s new job to bring Pete Buttigieg’s message to all of those people, as his faith outreach director.

Cory Booker also has plans to hire a faith-outreach director.

So they plan to reach out to every religion but not to people with nontheological belief systems? Seems to me like saying that they are OK with religious nastiness, because if it's called religion, it's automatically good.


Elizabeth Warren Says She’ll Consider Hiring a “Secular Outreach Director” | Hemant Mehta | Friendly Atheist | Patheos

Last night, atheist activist Justin Scott, the Iowa State Director for American Atheists, had the chance to ask Warren, among the front-runners for the Democratic nomination, if she’d consider hiring someone specifically to reach out to people without faith.

While she didn’t give a straight answer at first — it seemed clear she’d never even considered the idea before — she later said she would at least consider it.

I don't know if that's worth a full-time position, though it could be a good part-time position.

As to EW's personal beliefs, try to parse this:

But it was always about respect for every person. And if I had to describe a single guiding principle for me — the deepest of faith for me — it’s that every human being has value, whether you call it God, or a spirit, life… give it the name you want, but it’s about respect. It’s about valuing every human being. And that means you and that means me and that means all of us.

 

[lpetrich]

When Asked About His Religious Beliefs, Bernie Sanders Says “I Am Who I Am” | Hemant Mehta | Friendly Atheist | Patheos

Kimmel: … You say you’re culturally Jewish, you don’t feel religious. Do you believe in God, and do you think that’s important to the people of the United States?

Sanders: Well, you know, I am who I am. And what I believe in and what my spirituality is about is that we’re all in this together. That I think it is not a good thing to believe that, as human beings, we can turn our backs on the suffering of other people…

Why Bernie Sanders doesn’t participate in organized religion - The Washington Post

“I think everyone believes in God in their own ways,” he said. “To me, it means that all of us are connected, all of life is connected, and that we are all tied together.”

Bernie Sanders: My Religion is That “We Are All In This Together” | Hemant Mehta | Friendly Atheist | Patheos

… Every great religion in the world — Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Buddhism — essentially comes down to: “Do unto others as you would like them to do unto you.” What I have believed in my whole life — I believed it when I was a 22-year-old kid getting arrested in Chicago fighting segregation — I’ve believed it in my whole life.

That we are in this together — not just, not words. The truth is at some level when you hurt, when your children hurt, I hurt. I hurt. And when my kids hurt, you hurt. And it’s very easy to turn our backs on kids who are hungry, or veterans who are sleeping out on the street, and we can develop a psyche, a psychology which is “I don’t have to worry about them; all I’m gonna worry about is myself; I need to make another 5 billion dollars.”

But I believe that what human nature is about is that everybody in this room impacts everybody else in all kinds of ways that we can’t even understand. It’s beyond intellect. It’s a spiritual, emotional thing. So I believe that when we do the right thing, when we try to treat people with respect and dignity, when we say that that child who is hungry is my child, I think we are more human when we do that, than when we say “hey, this whole world is me, I need more and more, I don’t care about anyone else.” That’s my religion. That’s what I believe in.

And I think most people around the world — whatever their religion, their color — share that belief. That we are in it together as human beings. And it becomes more and more practical. If we destroy the planet because we don’t deal with climate change. Trust me, we are all in it together… and that is what my spirituality is about.

Doesn't seem like much of a "God". Certainly not a Universe-controlling superbeing.

 

[angelo]

He plagiarized I am who I am. right out of the OT!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Einstein's "God".

 

[lpetrich]

 Religious and philosophical views of Albert Einstein - "I believe in Spinoza's God, who reveals himself in the harmony of all that exists, not in a God who concerns himself with the fate and the doings of mankind." - "The most beautiful emotion we can experience is the mystical. It is the power of all true art and science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead. To know that what is impenetrable to us really exists, manifesting itself as the highest wisdom and the most radiant beauty, which our dull faculties can comprehend only in their most primitive forms—this knowledge, this feeling, is at the center of true religiousness. In this sense, and in this sense only, I belong to the rank of devoutly religious men."

 

[Politesse]

When Asked About His Religious Beliefs, Bernie Sanders Says “I Am Who I Am” | Hemant Mehta | Friendly Atheist | Patheos


Why Bernie Sanders doesn’t participate in organized religion - The Washington Post


Bernie Sanders: My Religion is That “We Are All In This Together” | Hemant Mehta | Friendly Atheist | Patheos

… Every great religion in the world — Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Buddhism — essentially comes down to: “Do unto others as you would like them to do unto you.” What I have believed in my whole life — I believed it when I was a 22-year-old kid getting arrested in Chicago fighting segregation — I’ve believed it in my whole life.

That we are in this together — not just, not words. The truth is at some level when you hurt, when your children hurt, I hurt. I hurt. And when my kids hurt, you hurt. And it’s very easy to turn our backs on kids who are hungry, or veterans who are sleeping out on the street, and we can develop a psyche, a psychology which is “I don’t have to worry about them; all I’m gonna worry about is myself; I need to make another 5 billion dollars.”

But I believe that what human nature is about is that everybody in this room impacts everybody else in all kinds of ways that we can’t even understand. It’s beyond intellect. It’s a spiritual, emotional thing. So I believe that when we do the right thing, when we try to treat people with respect and dignity, when we say that that child who is hungry is my child, I think we are more human when we do that, than when we say “hey, this whole world is me, I need more and more, I don’t care about anyone else.” That’s my religion. That’s what I believe in.

And I think most people around the world — whatever their religion, their color — share that belief. That we are in it together as human beings. And it becomes more and more practical. If we destroy the planet because we don’t deal with climate change. Trust me, we are all in it together… and that is what my spirituality is about.

Doesn't seem like much of a "God". Certainly not a Universe-controlling superbeing.

I can't imagine anyone who is not an atheist talking about a "Universe-controlling superbeing"...

Sanders' beliefs are not especially unusual for a New Englander, I don't think.

 

[lpetrich]

Why Aren’t More Democrats Endorsing Warren? | FiveThirtyEight

• No one is getting many endorsements
• The party elites are wary of Warren
• The endorsements we’re focused on miss some of Warren’s support
• Does Warren’s lack of endorsements matter?

The Fourth Democratic Debate In 6 Charts | FiveThirtyEight
Viewers' assessments of debate performance closely tracked their pre-debate favorability assessments, with not much scatter. Buttigieg and Klobuchar went up the most and O'Rourke, Castro, and Biden went down the most.

Warren won by both agreement in position and ability to defeat Trump, though most of the others were not far behind.

Change in favorability, from +3.2 to -5.7: Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders, Biden, Steyer, Yang, Booker, Harris, Castro, Gabbard, O'Rourke

Words spoken, from 3695 to 1318: Warren, Biden, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders, Yang, Castro, Gabbard, Steyer

There wasn't much of a correlation between words spoken and correlation average.

Mentions of Pres. Trump, from 11 to 3: Harris, Yang, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Gabbard, Warren, Booker, Sanders, Steyer, Biden, Castro, O'Rourke


Most 2020 Candidates Have Something In Common: Their Supporters Also Like Warren | FiveThirtyEight

The averages of second preferences is Warren 65%, Biden 60%, Sanders 43%, Buttigieg 39%, Harris 39%, O'Rourke 25%, Booker 24%, Yang 22%, Klobuchar 21%, Castro 15%, Steyer 12%, Gabbard 11%.

Tulsi Gabbard doesn't seem to be getting much support. The second choice among her followers was unusual: Andrew Yang.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I notice that at 538, Trump's approval rating has finally been dropping thanks to the recent antics in Washington. At 538 Trump's approval rating is now an abysmal 40.7% At Real Clear Politics it is currently 41.6%. A steep drop from 44.9% as of September 24th.

"He went down, down down, and the devil called him by name."
- Tom Waits

 

[lpetrich]

Democratic primary: Where the candidates stand on transportation - Curbed

In recent years, modernizing the U.S. transportation system has become an even more crucially important issue for the country. Transportation is now the largest and fastest-growing contributor to climate change. As of last year, transportation accounts for nearly one-third of U.S. emissions—more than the generation of electricity.

... But while many of the candidates have released dedicated housing and climate plans, few have specific plans around transportation and infrastructure.

...
Only Sen. Bernie Sanders’s climate plan addresses transportation comprehensively—but it still relies heavily on private electric vehicle adoption. High-speed rail, freight, and public transit are all accounted for, and one-fifth of the $16 trillion budget is earmarked for grants, incentives, and other programs for Americans to acquire and charge electric vehicles.

In fact, the bulk of transformative change around transportation comes in Sanders’s housing plan: “Encourage zoning and development that promotes integration and access to public transportation to reduce commuting time, congestion and long car commutes,” it reads. “Prioritize projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, create walkable and livable communities, and reduce urban sprawl.”

Most others don't say much. Plans | Elizabeth Warren has oodles of them, but nothing on transport. Not even her clean-energy plan has anything on it.

A Climate Plan For the People | Kamala Harris

We must also incentivize people to reduce car usage and use public transit. This starts by funding robust public transportation networks to bring communities together and focusing our transportation infrastructure investments toward projects that reduce vehicle miles traveled and address gaps in first mile, last mile service.

Nothing more specific than that, however. John Delaney was the only one to propose increasing the gas tax.

Six of the 10 candidates were asked during CNN’s climate town hall if their plans would require Americans to drive EVs. All said yes, but their plans contain different timelines. ...

... Electrifying school buses is another common policy point for candidates, including Sanders and Harris.

Moving freight is also a huge challenge when it comes to eliminating emissions. Sanders has a large chunk of his climate plan devoted to electrifying the trucking industry.

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders agree on supporting high-speed rail.

"Candidates have been captured riding subways and trains much more during this campaign than in 2016, tickling transportation advocates. "

Warren and Biden ride Amtrak trains. Yang likes electric cars. O'Rourke did a live chat aboard a Bolt bus. He and Amy Klobuchar have both ridden bikes.

 

[blastula]

He plagiarized I am who I am. right out of the OT!

No, it's closer to the Book of Popeye.