Democrats 2020

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform. Granted, there are many other primaries than just the Presidential one.

 

[Politesse]

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform. Granted, there are many other primaries than just the Presidential one.

Why??

 

[TV and credit cards]

Seems to me this virus can only benefit Bernie if fewer elderly voters show up at the polls.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform. Granted, there are many other primaries than just the Presidential one.

Why??

Because it's over. Biden has won. He currently has more than 1.6 million more votes than Sanders. He has massive leads in ohio and Florida (the next two states). Time for the party to quit fucking around and focus on beating Trump.

 

[Elixir]

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform.

I think you have the order reversed.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform.

I think you have the order reversed.

Biden has the lead in delegates and votes, so no, it isn't reversed. Methuselah wasn't my first, second, or third choice, but this is a democracy, the people voted.

Texas and Florida and Michigan were Sanders' life line. Florida is about to go for Biden. So Sanders can't win. Primaries beyond this point are in great doubt of happening.

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform. Granted, there are many other primaries than just the Presidential one.

Why??

There are no scenarios where Sanders makes up the difference on Biden, short of Biden dropping out of the race. This is the time to join the wings together to the victor at this point and likely at the end of the race. In doing so, Sanders maintains the power to get his planks on the platform again. This is the moment to cash in. Makes him magnanimous and provides him incredible leverage.

 

[southernhybrid]

I agree with Jimmy, plus I watched the debate Sunday night. Biden didn't make a single gaffe and he sounded presidential, while Sanders totally fucked up, made a few gaffes, like confusing ebola with COVID-19. Sanders also kept bringing up issues from 20 or 30 years ago, but got bent out of shape when Biden mentioned a few of his past mistakes. People in most of the country feel comfortable with Biden. I don't see a pathway for Sanders to win enough delegates at this point. He is behind in the two primaries that are still going on today. Georgia has postponed its primary until May 19th, but Biden is far more popular here. Since so many primaries are being postponed, it would be helpful for Sanders to end his campaign now so that the bickering can stop and the party can unite.

Maybe if Sanders gets slaughtered in today's primaries, he will agree to concede to Biden.

 

[Politesse]

Sanders needs to step aside NOW and come to an agreement with Biden regarding the party platform. Granted, there are many other primaries than just the Presidential one.

Why??

Because it's over. Biden has won. He currently has more than 1.6 million more votes than Sanders. He has massive leads in ohio and Florida (the next two states). Time for the party to quit fucking around and focus on beating Trump.

I definitely don't think Bernie is going to just suddenly concede that axing publically accessible healthcare was the right plan all along, in the middle of a crisis caused by an ineffective system of healthcare

 

[Trausti]

Don’t listen to the naysayers, Bernie. Keep on fighting to the bitter end!

 

[Harry Bosch]

Don’t listen to the naysayers, Bernie. Keep on fighting to the bitter end!

I can tell that the present democratic unity is causing great anxiety among our conservative friends...

 

[Jarhyn]

Is it fucking around? Or is it improving democratic participation?

A Democratic primary has people talking about democrats and not talking about Trump in any substantive way, even if it's a one-sided primary. Do we really want to start the general early? Who does that really help? It certainly doesn't help Biden who then has to start weathering the full force of Trump.

I've accepted that Biden will be the nominee. I hope Bernie can leverage as much on him as possible, but that is of limited extent. The end is not bitter, but it might be best if it is not brought to a close too quickly. It will not make November come any more quickly to end the primary now, all it will do is bring Trump into the ring earlier, and Rob him of momentum and message time.

Negotiation and discussion are part and parcel of democracy. Personally, I think Dems should take their time and make a dog and pony show out of it. Besides, it helps participation in down-ballot races and engages people down the line.

 

[Treedbear]

I think if there's no possible path to the nomination after today then drawing out the debate will only harden the positions taken by both sides. As we unify as a nation and hopefully as a world against the pandemic there needs to be one clear message coming from the Dems.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Imagine a basketball game. It's 4 minutes before half time. Team A has 54 points. Team B has 45 points.

After today, the second quarter will end. There will be a new score we observe. It will be half time.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Imagine a basketball game. It's 4 minutes before half time. Team A has 54 points. Team B has 45 points.

After today, the second quarter will end. There will be a new score we observe. It will be half time.

But that's an invalid analogy because it assumes that there's a potential for a difference in the scoring ratio in the second half. That's not there. Assuming that the polls for today are correct, Sanders will need about 2/3rds of the remaining delegates in order to go into the convention with the most. Given the proportional rewards, Biden could drop dead tomorrow and Sanders still probably wouldn't get that.

It's done.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Imagine a basketball game. It's 4 minutes before half time. Team A has 54 points. Team B has 45 points.

After today, the second quarter will end. There will be a new score we observe. It will be half time.

Imagine, someone using a viable parallel, because the rules of basketball have shit in common with becoming the Democrat nominee for President. The opposing team would need to be awarded 1.5 points for even basket the other team scored. Biden leads right now. He is controlling in many of the remaining primaries. Because there are no winner take all states, coming back from behind will be extremely difficult. States with the largest remaining delegates will be advertised hard by Biden to ensure even if he loses, he won't lose by enough to make a difference. And Sanders isn't winning the African American vote, which is really the largest reason he isn't in first now.

Sanders' loss in Michigan effectively clinched him not winning the nomination, if not the loss in Texas. It is time to move on. I'm sorry your guy didn't win. My pick... my second pick... didn't come close... first one didn't even make it to Super Tuesday.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Because it's over. Biden has won. He currently has more than 1.6 million more votes than Sanders. He has massive leads in ohio and Florida (the next two states). Time for the party to quit fucking around and focus on beating Trump.

I definitely don't think Bernie is going to just suddenly concede that axing publically accessible healthcare was the right plan all along, in the middle of a crisis caused by an ineffective system of healthcare

Sanders has leverage here and should use t while it is worth the most.

The nation is strained because of this White House.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Imagine a basketball game. It's 4 minutes before half time. Team A has 54 points. Team B has 45 points.

After today, the second quarter will end. There will be a new score we observe. It will be half time.

Imagine, someone using a viable parallel, because the rules of basketball have shit in common with becoming the Democrat nominee for President. The opposing team would need to be awarded 1.5 points for even basket the other team scored.

Biden has 898 delegates and Sanders has 745 delegates. The game is won when someone gets 1991 which is a majority.

Neither Biden nor Sanders have half that amount yet. Biden and Sanders together don't have that amount either.

Sanders does not currently need 1.5 as much as Biden in remaining delegates:
redoing math here...

To win a majority, one needs 1991 delegates. If that is the least majority one can win by, then it would mean there are 3981 delegates in total.

There are currently this many delegates already allocated: 898 (Bid) + 745 (San) + 72 (War) + 61 (Blo) + 26 (But) +7 (Klo) +2 (Tul) = 1811 delegates.

To win a PLURALITY, i.e. Bernie needs more delegates than Biden, then

Let x = the number of remaining delegates Bernie gets
then 1811-x = the number of remaining delegates Biden gets

Bernie's delegates > Biden's delegates
Bernie's current + Bernie's future delegates > Biden's current + Biden's future delegates
745 + x > 898 + (1811 -x)
x + x > 898 + 1811 - 745
2x > 1964
x > 982
Minimum needed = 983.
Therefore, Biden's delegates = 1811 - 983 = 828.

Bernie to Biden ratio of remaining delegates = 983 / 828 ~= 1.187

_________________

Question of Biden winning a PLURALITY:

Biden only needs to stop Bernie from getting 983. If Bernie gets 982. So, Biden can get it, if he gets 829.

Biden to Bernie ratio = 829 / 982 ~= .844.

_________________

Bernie will concede if Biden wins the plurality, which ought to be accomplished since it is a low bar.

Biden does not need 1.5 x as much of remaining delegates for a win prior to a brokered convention.

 

[Politesse]

I think if there's no possible path to the nomination after today then drawing out the debate will only harden the positions taken by both sides. As we unify as a nation and hopefully as a world against the pandemic there needs to be one clear message coming from the Dems.

You can't just demand that people agree with your message in the name of unity and stability. Centrist Democrats have had more than a decade to implement their ideas, while conditions in the nation steadily and then precipitously worsened. I think most people will, eventually, vote for the Blue nominee. But saying that even public dissent from a party line is verboten; no, I can't agree with that. And demanding silence (oh, sorry, "consensus" (without the consent part)) on critical issues just so as to be "clear" to the public is not exactly endearing me to the so-called moderate position. If you're going to talk like a Republican, don't be offended when you're taken for one. I'm sure Bernie will step aside if things go south tonight, but that doesn't mean anyone has the right to demand that he give up his platform while he has it, and can still meaningfully push Biden in a more humane direction for a while longer.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Imagine a basketball game. It's 4 minutes before half time. Team A has 54 points. Team B has 45 points.

After today, the second quarter will end. There will be a new score we observe. It will be half time.

Imagine, someone using a viable parallel, because the rules of basketball have shit in common with becoming the Democrat nominee for President. The opposing team would need to be awarded 1.5 points for even basket the other team scored.

Biden has 898 delegates and Sanders has 745 delegates. The game is won when someone gets 1991 which is a majority.

Neither Biden nor Sanders have half that amount yet. Biden and Sanders together don't have that amount either.

Sanders does not currently need 1.5 as much as Biden in remaining delegates:
redoing math here...

This is so desperate and pathetic. Break down the remaining primaries; look at the delegates available in each state; then look at the polling data. Barring a major health issue, Biden will only increase his lead, starting today. This isn't a fucking basketball game; Sanders isn't going to "get hot" in the second half. He's been saying the same shit for five years, and he didn't even change his spiel Sunday night when he had the perfect opportunity.

He needs to be out by 9am tomorrow. Tonight would be better.

 

[PyramidHead]

I think if there's no possible path to the nomination after today then drawing out the debate will only harden the positions taken by both sides. As we unify as a nation and hopefully as a world against the pandemic there needs to be one clear message coming from the Dems.

You can't just demand that people agree with your message in the name of unity and stability. Centrist Democrats have had more than a decade to implement their ideas, while conditions in the nation steadily and then precipitously worsened. I think most people will, eventually, vote for the Blue nominee. But saying that even public dissent from a party line is verboten; no, I can't agree with that. And demanding silence (oh, sorry, "consensus" (without the consent part)) on critical issues just so as to be "clear" to the public is not exactly endearing me to the so-called moderate position. If you're going to talk like a Republican, don't be offended when you're taken for one. I'm sure Bernie will step aside if things go south tonight, but that doesn't mean anyone has the right to demand that he give up his platform while he has it, and can still meaningfully push Biden in a more humane direction for a while longer.

Biden has shown himself to be a liar, based on the last debate. Any concessions he makes to the left as a result of pressure from Bernie will be totally forgotten the minute he takes office. Should he lose the general to Trump, which seems likely, then the left will be blamed for not falling in line. If he wins, it will be used as an argument that the left is not important. If Bernie wins (which is still very possible given the uncertain times we're in and the specifics of this situation), and loses to Trump, the left will be blamed for running another McGovern. If Bernie beats Trump, then it will be regarded as a fluke based solely on the COVID-19 situation. The narrative will never be that the left deserves to be listened to or taken seriously, until conditions get so bad that the ground falls out from below the petrified moderate consensus that has been dominant since Reagan.