A failure to move towards consensus is generally diagnostic of an erroneous hypothesis. If any of the religions or sects were based in fact, that sect would tend to dominate over time, if only because their expectations about the best course of action in any given circumstances would tend to be dashed less often than those of their heretical brethren.
Religions look exactly as we might predict them to look under the hypothesis that no gods exist outside fiction. They look nothing like we would predict under the hypothesis that there is a single god, or even a most powerful god amongst a pantheon.
Observed reality is consistent with atheism, or with a highly diverse polytheism of almost powerless small gods who are in constant competition for influence on reality. The latter is needlessly unparsimonious, and suffers from being almost universally disbelieved, which is a major blow against the likelihood of any religion's being non-fictional.