How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Russian offensive unexpectedly slowed by fierce Ukrainian resistance

Two days in, the Russian offensive appeared to be stymied by stiffer-than-expected resistance from highly motivated Ukrainian armed forces.

Despite an overwhelming advantage in manpower and equipment, the Russian advance lost some of its momentum Friday and the quick victory Russian President Vladimir Putin was counting on is no longer assured, a senior United States defense official told NBC News.

"We do assess that there is greater resistance by the Ukrainians than the Russians expected," the official said. “They are fighting for their country.”

While Russian forces are threatening the capital, Kyiv, and other major cities like Kharkiv and small-but-strategic cities like Rivne, none have have been taken so far and the Ukrainian air defenses remain largely intact, despite being targeted by relentless missile attacks, the official said.

Are rumors of a single Ukrainian fighter pilot downing 6 Russian jets true? - Sandboxx

Snake Island massacre – 13 Ukrainian soldiers tell Russians to 'go f**k themselves' before being wiped out by bomb

Ukrainian troops scorch column of Russian armored vehicles near Hostomel
Hostomel / Gostomel Airport near Kyiv

Ukrainian Troops Retake Key Airport From Russian Paratroopers - Hostomel

Russia claims to take control of Hostomel airport just outside Kyiv | The Times of Israel

Russians disguised in Ukrainian uniforms and trucks shot dead trying to storm Kyiv as defenders dig in for bloody siege

 

[Elixir]

Pic of the day:

 

[Patooka]

I strongly suspect that his success in Ukraine will embolden him to do whatever else he wants,

That's a given, but why Poland? Why not shore up support and influence among non-NATO aligned nations in the region like Serbia, Belarus or Moldova instead? Less risk same reward.

 

[lpetrich]

Where has fighting been focused on day two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? | Ukraine | The Guardian
Missile attacks in a lot of places, and troops coming in from the north, east, and south.

Another article: Ukraine soldiers told Russian officer ‘go fuck yourself’ before they died on island | Ukraine | The Guardian - "Thirteen border guards died in air and sea bombardment on Snake Island in Black Sea after refusing to surrender"

Prominent Russians join protests against Ukraine war amid 1,800 arrests | Russia | The Guardian - "As invasion continues, people from worlds of entertainment, business and journalism voice opposition"

Ukrainian woman offers seeds to Russian soldiers so 'sunflowers grow when they die' – video | World news | The Guardian

‘It’s not rational’: Putin’s bizarre speech wrecks his once pragmatic image | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian

Looking dead-eyed into the camera on Friday, Vladimir Putin gave one of the most bizarre speeches of his 22 years as Russia’s leader, a directive that managed to sound alarming even in a week when he has ordered tanks into Ukraine and missile strikes on Kyiv.

“Once again I speak to the Ukrainian soldiers,” he said, addressing his enemy. “Do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, your wives and the elderly as a human shield. Take power into your own hands. It seems that it will be easier for us to come to an agreement than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis.”

The speech seemed to be ripped from an alternate reality – or from the second world war, where Putin appears to be spending more of his time as he launches the kind of broad military offensive not seen in Europe for nearly 70 years.

Banderites? What villain is he talking about? I've seen neo-Nazis quite a lot as villains, sometimes mentioning the  Azov Battalion

 

[Thomas II]

A humanitarian problem...to destabilize Europe.

 

[Jayjay]

Bucharest memorandum doesn't mention NATO either way

Incorrect!

2008 Bucharest summit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

My bad. Confused it with the Budapest memorandum. But NATO did not offer Ukraine a membership then, and while the summit declaration said that Ukraine will be a member eventually, that's just NATO's wishful thinking. NATO can't force anyone to join, and Ukraine was not likely to do so.

Don't care. It was totally unacceptable, international laws be damned!

And boy, you ARE slow

I was away bribing people of former soviet republics to say mean things about Russia at the behest of US State Department on vacation and had a month's worth of posts to wade through. Still catching up.

There's no international law that forbids sovereign nations from seeking membership in NATO. But Ukraine's NATO bid was always weak. Not all NATO members wanted them, and there wasn't enough popular support. When Yanukovich came to power in 2010 he closed that path regardless (and people voted for him knowing that he would). Note that there was no Maidan or protests when he did that... only after he reneged on his promise to sign the EU association agreement. Most Ukrainians didn't care for NATO, not even the nationalists, but they did care about trade with EU.

 

[pood]

He’s not going to move on a NATO member unless he is insane. In any case, let‘s see if he can finish his odious work in Ukraine first. I’m betting not.

 

[Copernicus]

Banderites? What villain is he talking about? I've seen neo-Nazis quite a lot as villains, sometimes mentioning the

Azov Battalion

 Stepan Bandera was a pro-Nazi antisemitic Ukrainian nationalist before and during WWII. He was assassinated by the KGB in Austria in 1959. Ukrainian ultranationalists, and even some more moderate nationalists, treat Bandera as some kind of national hero. Yushchenko actually gave him a posthumous "Hero of Ukraine" award, which was rescinded by Yanukovych. Within Ukraine, Bandera tends to be seen in a better light more in the west than the east of the country, where Russian influence is highest. So even the pro-Russians there will refer to pretty much any Ukrainian nationalist as a "Banderite". Putin uses this to smear all Ukrainians that would oppose his influence and Russian dominance in Ukraine. And, as we have seen, barbos in our own backyard holds to the theme that they are all a bunch of Nazis.

 

[Thomas II]

And in the mean time, what is happening in Taiwan?

 

[Jayjay]

And I hope they do join eventually. Ukraine is an example what happens to Russia's neighbours who are not in NATO.

You got it wrong. Ukraine is an example of what happens to Russia's neighbours who WANT to join NATO. And Finland is an example of the opposite.

Technically true. Russia will fuck you up if you try to be a sovereign nation, but don't have the means to defend yourself.

Those who managed to get under NATO umbrella are fine: The Baltic nations, Poland, etc.

 

[Jayjay]

So you found one person who agrees with you. What makes that person any more worthy of discussion than anyone else?

Not one, the whole damn lecture hall, and these are not random MSM propaganda recipients like yourself

The problem with what you just said is that the US and western allies do not fear democracy. Why does Putin fear democracy? Why do Chinese communists fear democracy? Why does Putin fear a democratic Ukraine? Why does Putin need non-democratic states as buffer states to Russia?

Actually, you have half of your Congress fearing democracy
And Putin does not fear democratic Ukraine. He fears puppet fascist regime you installed there.

Funny, we used the same justification to help overthrow (kill) the socialist Chilean President in 1974.

Again, you try so hard to make your arguments, that sound exactly like Western arguments sound legit and noble, while declaring the exact same arguments from the West as propaganda and lies.

Ukraine is its own country. If you want a more Belarussian like leader in Ukraine, Putin knows the protocol... and it doesn't require brute military intervention. I think Russia pulls this stuff to remind the West that Russia still exists and "matters".

I am not following you here.
My point is pretty simple. US made a coup in Ukraine and installed insane puppet regime. Same with Georgia. I don't see how is that good. And last time I checked Pinochet was not a democrat.

The US didn't orchestrate the "coups", by which I assume you mean the color revolutions. The people in those countries did: they were sick and tired of the old rulers, and wanted change. They wanted to get away from under Russia's thumb (not because they were anti-Russian, but because the old leaders they despised were supported by Russia), and rather emulate the west with its freedoms and other baubles. Of course the US or other western nations welcomed this, but they didn't or couldn't cause them. At best they nudged the public sentiment a bit in the right direction.

 

[lpetrich]

“Despite Crimea and everything else, Putin had always seemed an extremely pragmatic leader to me,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik. “But now when he’s gone in this war against Ukraine, the logic in the decision is all about emotions, it’s not rational.”

VP seems to have a map in his mind of what he wants Russia to be.

Central to that map is Ukraine, which he has described as an artificial state. “Modern Ukraine was wholly and fully created by Russia,” Putin said in a historical sleight-of-hand, “namely Bolshevik, communist Russia.”

To help picture it, state TV ran a map earlier this week showing Ukraine cut up to represent which parts were “presents” from various leaders, including Stalin, Lenin and Khrushchev. Some commentators said it represents the partition that Putin himself might be imagining if he gets his way.

Opinion | How to Think About Ukraine, in Maps and Charts - The New York Times

"Ukraine is Europe’s second largest country by land area and seventh largest by population."

It's roughly 1200 km / 700 mi east-west and 700 km / 400 mi north-south

It has a population of 44 million people and its largest city and capital city, Kyiv / Kiev, has 3 million.

Also mentioning a series of polls that showed Ukrainians turning against Russia in 2014, after Russia took over the Crimea. A case of Crimea and punishment.

Then, after noting that Ukraine supplies 49% of Libya's wheat imports, 45% of Tunisia's and 30% of Bangladesh's,

Sometimes referred to as the “breadbasket of Europe,” Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of grains. Prices of the commodity have already spiked, and supply disruptions could lead to increased food insecurity in countries that rely on Ukraine’s exports, such as Libya and Tunisia.

The largest shocks to the worldwide economy will likely be in the gas and oil markets. Europe relies heavily on its energy needs from Russia, and more than a third of Russia’s gas exports flow through Ukraine. As of Thursday afternoon, oil prices topped $100 a barrel for the first time in more than seven years. Some experts predict that consumers may see gas prices rise to more than $4 per gallon.

Ukraine itself is heavily dependent on nuclear energy, generating roughly half of its overall electricity at its 15 reactors scattered across the country. While the country may not export much of that energy, its nuclear power plants are still cause for concern: Attacks in that Chernobyl exclusion zone have prompted fears of kicked-up radioactive dust, which could drift across country borders.

 

[ZiprHead]

Thank for making all those posts on the history of the region, lpetrich. I'm learning a lot from them and it's much appreciated.

 

[lpetrich]

Shields up: How a possible cyberattack could affect Americans and how to prepare - ABC News - "Experts say the Russia-Ukraine conflict puts the world in uncharted territory."

Russia-Ukraine live updates: Zelenskyy warns Russia will try to 'storm' Kyiv tonight - ABC News

NATO allies to provide more weapons to Ukraine, Stoltenberg says | Reuters

NATO deploys troops to eastern flank as Russian attack escalates in Ukraine

E.U. will freeze assets of Putin, Lavrov, in retaliation for Ukraine invasion - The Washington Post

Russia vetoes U.N. Security action on Ukraine, China abstains | Reuters

Russia vetoed a draft U.N. Security Council resolution on Friday that would have deplored Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while China abstained from the vote - a move western countries view as a win for showing Russia's international isolation.

The United Arab Emirates and India also abstained from the vote on the U.S.-drafted text. The remaining 11 council members voted in favor. The draft resolution is now expected to be taken up by the 193-member U.N. General Assembly.

China's abstention comes just weeks after Beijing and Moscow declared a "no limits" partnership, backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West.

 

[Copernicus]

Although Biden had said that not all European countries were on board with excluding Russia from SWIFT, it seems that the issue is still alive in Europe:

EU to consider Russia's expulsion from SWIFT in third sanctions package

 

[Jayjay]

In any case, that is likely to drive the unconquered parts of Ukraine much closer to NATO, and Sweden and Finland may end up joining that alliance.

Do you know what I think really happened? US "diplomats" pressured these countries to say that.

That's laughable. You could make a case that Ukraine, who is no desperately depending on support from US, could be pressured to make pro-NATO statements, there is the counterpoint that due to Putin's warmongering, NATO is really now the only option for them. But to say the same about Sweden or Finland is just beyond the parody horizon. Neither of those countries has said they will join NATO, but the public opinion in both has shifted and it's becoming a talking point. Not due to US pressure, but because of Russia's belligerence.

Public is generally stupid. And your own president sent Ukraine a message just a couple of days ago.

And you are really naive if you think US does not pressure their EU partners.
They totally do, they pressure Germany, they pressure Finland and they pressure Sweden. They admit that themselves.

No, that's just normal diplomacy. Look at how long the US has tried to convince Germany to halt Nord Stream 2. That didn't happen. The US just doesn't have that kind of leverage over Germany. Putin was able to achieve in a day what the US couldn't do in a decade.

Neither Sweden or Finland are making their statements about NATO or Ukraine in cahoots with US state department. They're looking out for their own interests first, just like most nations.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine is enacting genocide against Russians. There won't be an insurgency, we'll be welcomed with flowers.

Well, you place bunch of nazis with artillery at the border of Donetsk/Lugansk and this is what is gonna happen. And Ukrainian Government is complicit in that.

The only fire landing on Russian interests was fired by Russians.

Says who?

It was reported artillery fire. There's simply no reason for that. Thus it was almost certainly false flag or perhaps entirely made up.

Rogue units aren't going to be operating artillery.

 

[ZiprHead]

Although Biden had said that not all European countries were on board with excluding Russia from SWIFT, it seems that the issue is still alive in Europe:

EU to consider Russia's expulsion from SWIFT in third sanctions package

It's not so easy. Messing with the SWIFT system would cause worldwide monetery disruptions.

 

[ZiprHead]

Why didn’t the U.S. cut off Russia from SWIFT? It’s complicated. (Published 2022)

Removing access to the financial messaging service would be the most severe penalty but could have unwanted consequences, including compromising energy exports to Europe.

www.nytimes.com

Behind a paywall but it gets into the details.

 

[Axulus]

The sanctions and isolation against Russia should be equally as strong as those against North Korea.