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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Patooka

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That's what Erdogan says today. Tomorrow he might say something different.
The cynic in me says his motivation is because the US has decided to clandestinely purchase any and all TB-2s at well above market price and then "disappear" them somewhere. I can live with that. I mean, last time I checked the US has only spent around 3 billion of that 40 billion Congress authorised.
 

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Congratulations Vlad. You’ve managed to weaken your own country militarily and strengthen NATO with your foolish actions. With the addition of Finland and Sweden, two plug and play NATO members, you will be hard-pressed to defend your own borders. You’ve woken up Sweden and turned Gotland into an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”.

You struggle to manufacture the military equipment you need to continue to execute the war while NATO can and will supply Ukraine. The European components of NATO who now spend 1.5x that of China on defense will be able to contain your expansionist desires without US help going forward allowing the US to focus elsewhere. What do you think about that Xi Jinping?

Try as you did, you never could manufacture much of the electronic components needed for your own weapon systems. If the estimates are right, sanctions should start hitting hard soon. Meanwhile Sweden is doubling its defense budget and Finland is buying 64 F-35s.
You’ve brought two big contributors to NATO, two well trained militaries into NATO, not nations that need defending.

Vlad, you’ve isolated your country diplomatically and economically and nearly surrounded yourself militarily. Is this what you were going for? Russia is now a pariah state by nearly every definition.
 

Copernicus

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The 2020 NATO Summit is taking place in Madrid now. That is likely one of the things that motivated Erdogan to drop Turkey's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. There will be a renewed commitment to strengthening military assets across Europe, including an "unshakable commitment" to supporting Ukraine.

NATO gears up for Madrid Summit


Speaking to reporters ahead of a summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that NATO will enhance its battlegroups in the eastern part of the alliance up to brigade levels. Allied heads of state and government will also approve plans to enhance NATO high-readiness forces to more than 300,000 troops, with forces pre-assigned to specific locations. More heavy weapons, logistics and command-and control assets will be pre-positioned.

In Madrid, Allies will also approve a new Strategic Concept, setting out the Alliance’s priorities and approaches for the next decade. The document is expected to make clear that Allies consider Russia as the most significant and direct threat to NATO”s security, while addressing China for the first time and the challenges that Beijing poses toward Allied security, interests and values.

The Summit will also decide on a more comprehensive assistance package for Ukraine. Looking to the future, leaders will take decisions to launch a one-billion-euro Innovation Fund to invest in emerging technologies. On climate change, Allies will agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions for NATO as an organisation. The leaders of Georgia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, and Ukrainian president Zelenskyy via video link will join the Summit.


President Biden has announced that the US is also changing its posture in Europe, pledging to now station more troops in Europe.

Ukraine war: US to ramp up military presence across Europe


Poland will now get its long-requested permanent army headquarters from the US. They once offered to call it "Fort Trump" and pledged $2 billion to build it, but I assume that offer is off the table. :) There won't be a huge permanent increase in troops, just about 300-500 strategic planners. The current 12,000 troops stationed there are not considered permanent. They are likely to stay as long as the Ukraine crisis exists.

The announcement sees the US shore up its presence across the continent but particularly in eastern Europe where the new permanent headquarters for its 5th Army Corps will be based.

Mr Biden repeated the alliance's commitment to "defend every inch" of its territory, saying: "We mean it when we say an attack against one is an attack against all."
The measures include:
  • Boosting the fleet of US naval destroyers in Spain from four to six
  • An additional "rotational brigade in Romania consisting of 3,000 fighters and another 2,000-personnel combat team
  • Two more squadrons of F-35 stealth jets to the UK
  • Additional air defence and other capabilities in Germany and Italy.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden had been formally invited to join the military alliance, describing it as the "fastest accession process ever", and said he expected the swift progress to continue.
 

Cheerful Charlie

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The latest and greatest Russian fighter jet is the SU-57. A project that has been ongoing for years now, over decade. Russia has 6 of them. There are now over 700 F-35s in service, 450 in service in the U.S. military. Not to mention F-22s. Pootie has ordered 70 more by 2028. Good luck affording those with sanctions and cost of fighting a war in Ukraine.
 

barbos

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Vlad, you’ve isolated your country diplomatically and economically
That's not what actually happened.
It's the West who isolated themselves from the rest of the World which tacitly supports Russia. By West I mean western governments/establishment which do not represent people.
Case in point is Poland, their government is as pro-ukrainian as it gets, whereas people hate ukrainians, go figure.
 

zorq

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Parroting RuYeah,ssian propaganda is hardly an "analysis"
Yeah, keep deluding yourself that Ukraine NATO is winning.
Ukraine isn't winning, but Russia isn't winning much either. Russia will be worse off after all the dust has settled than before the invasion. Your first analysis was probably right. Invading Ukraine was a bad idea for Russia. Now, it was not necessarily a bad idea for Putin... He might be getting enough of what he wants out of it, but Russia and her people? LOL.

It's too bad typical Russians are apparently as savvy as American Trump fanatics. Russians seem happy to welcome their own dark fate in with open arms. Poor, stupid, dipshits. If they weren't so gullible they might have figured out who the parties are who are actually responsible for the misery in their lives.
 

zorq

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Ukraine isn't winning, but Russia isn't winning much either.
Actually, Russia is winning. CNN is lying to you.
Russia may eventually "win" the unprovoked, murderous, and despicable invasion of it's neighbor. But I was actually referring to Russia losing at the larger "game" of geopolitics. I understand if you have to cling to any flimsy excuse to feel pride in your shithole country filled with broken losers and deluded fools who have been ground down by generations of abusive leaders. It's understandable. But it's not excusable to be constantly cheering for pain and misery to be inflicted on innocent people.

Also, I don't really watch/read CNN but I would much sooner trust CNN for accurate depictions of reality than some random wanker on Chat Roulette like you do. LOL.
 

Patooka

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Also, I don't really watch/read CNN
You should, especially youtube comments to their coverage.
You will learn a lot about them.
I've learned that every time I read one of your well thought out totally not bullshit arguments the palm of my hand instinctively becomes quite intimate with my face.

And seeing as we are talking about youtube comments:

youtubecomments.png

I guess we all just learned something.
 

zorq

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Russia may eventually "win" the unprovoked, murderous, and despicable invasion of it's neighbor.
You forgot about 8 years of murderous provocations from nazi regime of Ukraine.
You can't gaslight us. Russia invaded Donbas in 2014! If Russians didn't like being attacked in Donbas for 8 years, they had every opportunity to LEAVE. Russians are welcome to leave Donbas RIGHT NOW! Nobody is stopping them! In fact nobody invited them to be there in the first place!

If the thought of Russians getting attacked in Donbas bothers you so much, why don't you pass this message up to your superiors--

"Please leave Ukraine right now and no more Russians need to be attacked in the the Donbas!"

Think of how many lives you could save by convincing Russia to take her unwelcome troops home! ... lol.
 

zorq

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You can't gaslight us. Russia invaded Donbas in 2014!
Nope, unelected and illegal nazi regime invaded Donbas in 2014!
Sweet! It is so kind of you to agree with us that Russia is an illegal nazi regime! Now we are all on the same page. Maybe we can start dealing with what do about this illegal nazi regime. :ROFLMAO:
 

Jayjay

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Parroting Russian propaganda is hardly an "analysis"
Yeah, keep deluding yourself that Ukraine NATO is winning.
Did I say that? Being forced to withdraw is not "winning", but clearly, that withdrawal wasn't as bad as that propagandist made it sound. There were no 1800 captured, but about 40 or so.

The jury's still out on withdrawal from Lysychansk. That looks like a much less organized operation.
 

Jayjay

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Russia may eventually "win" the unprovoked, murderous, and despicable invasion of it's neighbor.
You forgot about 8 years of murderous provocations from nazi regime in Ukraine.
Both sides killed each other during that time. But it was Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2014 that got the ball rolling.

ETA: By "unprovoked", I mean that Ukraine did nothing that would warrant an invasion by another country. Deposing Yanukovich wasn't it. Odessa clashes and deaths weren't it. The new language laws weren't it. And whatever other imaginary things Russian propagandists made up certainly weren't it.
 
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Jayjay

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I think NATO should find a way to provide F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Difficult to do in terms of training and logistics, and it will take time, but it would send a message to Russia that time is not on its side.
 

Copernicus

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Snake Island: Why Russia couldn't hold on to strategic Black Sea


Just like when it retreated in defeat from attempts to seize Kyiv, Russia is making another "good will gesture" towards Ukraine. It is abandoning Snake Island. Not because it has to retreat, but because it wants to express its good will. :rolleyes:

The ultimate good will gesture would be for them to get all of their troops out of Ukrainian territory to make up for the bad will gesture of invading that country in the first place.
 

Copernicus

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It is abandoning Snake Island.
Wut? Wait!
Didn’t barbos inform us that Ukraine would never take Snake Island?

Yes, but they weren't trying to take it back so much as drive the Russian occupiers off of it. The island is vulnerable to rocket attacks from Ukrainian territory. After months of occupation, someone in charge of defending it probably asked why they were trying to keep troops and equipment on it.
 

Patooka

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It is abandoning Snake Island.
Wut? Wait!
Didn’t barbos inform us that Ukraine would never take Snake Island?

Yes, but they weren't trying to take it back so much as drive the Russian occupiers off of it. The island is vulnerable to rocket attacks from Ukrainian territory. After months of occupation, someone in charge of defending it probably asked why they were trying to keep troops and equipment on it.
So Russian troops can gloriously sacrifice their lives engaging and destroying Nazi missiles. Duh.
 

Loren Pechtel

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Russia may eventually "win" the unprovoked, murderous, and despicable invasion of it's neighbor.
You forgot about 8 years of murderous provocations from nazi regime in Ukraine.
Note how that timespan corresponds with your initial invasion. There was no problem until Pootin decided to play armed robber.
 

ZiprHead

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The 2020 NATO Summit is taking place in Madrid now. That is likely one of the things that motivated Erdogan to drop Turkey's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. There will be a renewed commitment to strengthening military assets across Europe, including an "unshakable commitment" to supporting Ukraine.

NATO gears up for Madrid Summit


Speaking to reporters ahead of a summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that NATO will enhance its battlegroups in the eastern part of the alliance up to brigade levels. Allied heads of state and government will also approve plans to enhance NATO high-readiness forces to more than 300,000 troops, with forces pre-assigned to specific locations. More heavy weapons, logistics and command-and control assets will be pre-positioned.

In Madrid, Allies will also approve a new Strategic Concept, setting out the Alliance’s priorities and approaches for the next decade. The document is expected to make clear that Allies consider Russia as the most significant and direct threat to NATO”s security, while addressing China for the first time and the challenges that Beijing poses toward Allied security, interests and values.

The Summit will also decide on a more comprehensive assistance package for Ukraine. Looking to the future, leaders will take decisions to launch a one-billion-euro Innovation Fund to invest in emerging technologies. On climate change, Allies will agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions for NATO as an organisation. The leaders of Georgia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, and Ukrainian president Zelenskyy via video link will join the Summit.


President Biden has announced that the US is also changing its posture in Europe, pledging to now station more troops in Europe.

Ukraine war: US to ramp up military presence across Europe


Poland will now get its long-requested permanent army headquarters from the US. They once offered to call it "Fort Trump" and pledged $2 billion to build it, but I assume that offer is off the table. :) There won't be a huge permanent increase in troops, just about 300-500 strategic planners. The current 12,000 troops stationed there are not considered permanent. They are likely to stay as long as the Ukraine crisis exists.

The announcement sees the US shore up its presence across the continent but particularly in eastern Europe where the new permanent headquarters for its 5th Army Corps will be based.

Mr Biden repeated the alliance's commitment to "defend every inch" of its territory, saying: "We mean it when we say an attack against one is an attack against all."
The measures include:
  • Boosting the fleet of US naval destroyers in Spain from four to six
  • An additional "rotational brigade in Romania consisting of 3,000 fighters and another 2,000-personnel combat team
  • Two more squadrons of F-35 stealth jets to the UK
  • Additional air defence and other capabilities in Germany and Italy.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden had been formally invited to join the military alliance, describing it as the "fastest accession process ever", and said he expected the swift progress to continue.
user40584_pic13143_1656543910.jpeg
 

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Copernicus

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Video in the link. Only one of four bombs actually hit the island.

It may seem like a crazy idea to waste four phosphorus bombs on a deserted island, but consider it from the pilot's perspective: little risk of being shot down. It was a goodwill gesture from the Russian military's perspectives, because they weren't trying to murder civilians with those bombs.
 

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Video in the link. Only one of four bombs actually hit the island.

It may seem like a crazy idea to waste four phosphorus bombs on a deserted island, but consider it from the pilot's perspective: little risk of being shot down. It was a goodwill gesture from the Russian military's perspectives, because they weren't trying to murder civilians with those bombs.
That makes a pleasant change - Russian military not dropping bombs to kill civilians.
 

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An Ukrainian missile apparently hit some houses in Belgorod, with civilian casualties. Possibly due to being intercepted by air defenses, possibly due to just missing whatever the target was. It's not impossible that this was a Russian missile either, but I don't think so.

Russia will likely milk this for everything it can, and try to claim it was done with American HIMARS, which Ukraine promised not to use against Russia. In reality it was probably a soviet-era cruise missile. But as far as I know, Ukraine hasn't commented or admitted to striking Russia before, which means Russia can frame the story first and then Ukraine has to either ignore it or break their habit and comment it somehow.
 

Harry Bosch

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Russia lost another traditional ally in Bulgaria. Russian embassy staff are leaving the country:


Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!! I think that if we really wanted world peace to move forward, that the world would send an army of volunteer psychologists to teach the Russian leadership human nature and how to win friends!
 

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Perhaps, in the end, Putin will discover that the real special military operation was the friends that he made along the way?
 

Tigers!

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Russia lost another traditional ally in Bulgaria. Russian embassy staff are leaving the country:


Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!! I think that if we really wanted world peace to move forward, that the world would send an army of volunteer psychologists to teach the Russian leadership human nature and how to win friends!
We could chip in enough to send Dale Carnegies' book to Putin.
 

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Russia lost another traditional ally in Bulgaria. Russian embassy staff are leaving the country:


Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!! I think that if we really wanted world peace to move forward, that the world would send an army of volunteer psychologists to teach the Russian leadership human nature and how to win friends!
We could chip in enough to send Dale Carnegies' book to Putin.
I was going to say, How to Win Friends and Influence People must have gotten a piss-poor translation into Russian.
 

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Video in the link. Only one of four bombs actually hit the island.

It may seem like a crazy idea to waste four phosphorus bombs on a deserted island, but consider it from the pilot's perspective: little risk of being shot down. It was a goodwill gesture from the Russian military's perspectives, because they weren't trying to murder civilians with those bombs.

They were trying to destroy equipment that got left behind. It's a reasonable military target and there isn't likely to be a Stinger threat there.
 

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Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!!
I was going to say “The United States of America”, but they have no idea that they aren’t liked.
 

Patooka

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Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!!
I was going to say “The United States of America”, but they have no idea that they aren’t liked.
To be fair, Australia is living in one mighty fine glass house in this regard as well. South East Asia agrees with me.
 

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Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!!
I was going to say “The United States of America”, but they have no idea that they aren’t liked.
To be fair, Australia is living in one mighty fine glass house in this regard as well. South East Asia agrees with me.
It just seems to me that everyone is focused so much on being powerful that they don't seem to understand that they should be empowering instead.
 

TomC

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Is there another country in the history of the planet that so covets respect and friendship from local countries and border countries; does everything that it can to antagonize its neighbors; then has absolutely no idea why they aren't liked?!!!
I was going to say “The United States of America”, but they have no idea that they aren’t liked.

I'd like to believe that Barbos is an idiot.

That the USA couldn't possibly have meddled in Ukrainian affairs, or started a proxy war, while lying the whole time. Because we have freedom of speech, and a transparent government who would never do any such heinous things.

But I know better. I know people who still believe that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was necessary, because Saddam Hussein was a part of Alqeda and a security threat to the USA and we were going in there to rescue the Iraqi people from a vicious tyrant. Bush was our leader and nearly all of rallied around.

20 years later, and many people around here still believe that. It doesn't surprise me that Russians respond similarly to Putin.

There are very good reasons that the USA is considered The Great Satan. But most Americans don't want to see them.
Tom
 

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The guy with good analysis of total collapse of ukrainian "defense" around Severodonetsk.

Also talks about lithuanian debacle I mentioned before. These small "countries" with populations of average city or Chinese village clearly don't have brain power to predict consequences of their idiotic actions.

Prepare for Lithuanian Oblast of Russia.

What does "prepare for Lithuanian Oblast of Russia mean? As an aside, the next sanction meant to hurt Russia is the banning of Russian gold, just announced this morning. Somehow the world needs to find a way to stop Russian imperialism. Talks aren't going to work.

It means what it says.
EU critters told Lithunian idiots to back off of Kalinigrad. If they don't, they all (Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia) will be royally screwed and there is nothing NATO would do about it.
Anyway, Lithunian idiots are backing off.
 

barbos

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Russia may eventually "win" the unprovoked, murderous, and despicable invasion of it's neighbor.
You forgot about 8 years of murderous provocations from nazi regime in Ukraine.
Both sides killed each other during that time. But it was Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2014 that got the ball rolling.

ETA: By "unprovoked", I mean that Ukraine did nothing that would warrant an invasion by another country. Deposing Yanukovich wasn't it. Odessa clashes and deaths weren't it. The new language laws weren't it. And whatever other imaginary things Russian propagandists made up certainly weren't it.
Enough with this "both sides" crap.
Ukrainian nazi started bombing Eastern Ukraine civilians on the day one they said "We are out!"
 

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Russia may eventually "win" the unprovoked, murderous, and despicable invasion of it's neighbor.
You forgot about 8 years of murderous provocations from nazi regime in Ukraine.
Both sides killed each other during that time. But it was Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2014 that got the ball rolling.

ETA: By "unprovoked", I mean that Ukraine did nothing that would warrant an invasion by another country. Deposing Yanukovich wasn't it. Odessa clashes and deaths weren't it. The new language laws weren't it. And whatever other imaginary things Russian propagandists made up certainly weren't it.
Enough with this "both sides" crap.
Ukrainian nazi started bombing Eastern Ukraine civilians on the day one they said "We are out!"
As if the "people's republics" are anything but Russian puppets. :rolleyes: The people living there didn't want out, only the FSB installed terrorists like Igor Girkin. And of course, a bunch of Russian nazis who were looking for a fight.

Both sides have nazis, and on both sides they are fringe groups. For example, that Donetsk bombing in 2014 that you've brought up, was done by air. That means official air force of Ukraine, who are not nazis, and by order of Poroshenko, who is also not a nazi. The Azov battalion dídn't have planes or pilots, and still don't. But in Russian propaganda, all 40+ million Ukrainians have been transformed to vile nazis with swastika tattoos, which is obviously false to anyone with half a brain cell.

You're right though that "both sides" talk when it comes to atrocities is uncalled for: Russia is orders of magnitude worse than Ukraine in this regard. For every civilian Ukraine killed, Russia has killed a hundred.
 

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Russia lost another traditional ally in Bulgaria.
Bulgarian puppet regime has not been Russia's ally for ages.
bulgarian people are still on Russia's side.
No, they don't. Not anymore.


Over 75% of the Bulgarians surveyed see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as unjustified. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was completely unknown to Bulgarians until recently, was approved by 40%, and 29% had a negative opinion of him. This is despite pro-Russian propaganda on social networks.

Despite propaganda and fake news, the EU’s unprecedented and unified move in imposing sanctions on Russia is seen as the right policy by 63% of Bulgarian citizens, with 32% opposed.
 

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The Royal United Services Institute published an interesting analysis yesterday about Ukraine's and Russia's capabilities, and how the west should best help the former:


I highly recommend reading it, or at least the summary.

The key point is that Russia has very good artillery, which Ukraine is struggling to deal with, but certain western weapons systems could help blunt the Russian advantage:

1. Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, with guided munitions. USA just delivered first four HIMARS systems to Ukraine a little over week ago, and they're already showing promising results: Almost every night there is an ammunition depot or two blowing up, and because they "shoot and scoot", Russia hasn't been able to do anything about it. The number of such systems is going to increase, but eventually, Russia will get lucky and be able to destroy some of them too, and Russia has probably hundreds of ammunition dumps all over the occupied territory which means that it will not run out of ammo, but might become constrained locally by the logistics. And the obvious counter is to just have more smaller depots instead of large ones, which I'm pretty sure Russia is in the process of doing.

With guided munitions, Ukraine won't need UAVs to correct fire, unlike most Russian systems, but the downside is of course that the targets need to be stationary. I think it's pretty obvious that NATO or the US is analysing satellite images to provide Ukraine with targets, though of course nobody wants to say so publicly to avoid escalation. Local informants might help as well. But MLRS probably won't help with mobile artillery systems. I do hope they can at some point start hitting Russian SAM batteries though.

2. Suicide drones for taking out Russian Electronic Warfare units. The importance of EW on Russian side was new to me at least: based on the paper, they're able to pretty much deny the airspace to Ukrainian drones over the front line, which means that Ukraine doesn't know what they should be hitting, and can't correct fire like Russia can with its Orlan-10 drone. But what's even more amazing is the simplicity of the solution: The west just needs to come up with a simple sensor and guidance system that homes in on Russian jamming signals, and then put that in cheap drones with explosives. If Russian EW units can be disabled, Ukraine could fly their own drones and drastically improve their ability to do counter-battery fire or ground maneuvers.

3. On the other hand, Russian drones are a huge problem for Ukraine. They're embedded with the artillery units, so that if a drone sees a target, it can hit it within a few minutes, as opposed to half and hour or so that it takes for other means. The article does mention Starstreak and Martler missiles as being useful, but they're hardly cost-effective: googling the prices, Starstreak costs about $3 million and Martlet $1.5 million, compared to Orlan drone that's less than $100k (and given the simplicity of Orlan-10, I'm pretty sure that even if that's the public price, the actual cost to manufacture is way less). And Russia has thousands of Orlan drones. The article doesn't really go into more detail about this problem, so I wonder if any cheaper systems could be used to detect and shoot down the drones.

Heat seeking missiles like Stinger or their soviet counterparts are nearly useless, because the small drones don't have big enough infrared signature for the missile to lock on to.

Finally, the report suggests that the west should train Ukrainian troops to be able to carry about large scale counter-offensives. I'm a bit skeptical how realistic it is to do that in less than several years or decades. And this is why I think that even though Ukraine might be able to stop Russia, it will have a very hard time doing counter-attacks and retake land that is already occupied. The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.
 

Elixir

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The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.
There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.
 

Harry Bosch

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The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.
There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.
Totally agree. Russian word is shit.
 
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Jayjay

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The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.
There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.
The guarantees would have to be based on something other than Russia's pinky promise. Such as NATO air patrols, or that Russia withdraws behind borders that Ukraine can easily defend. For example, Russian presence in Kherson city on east side of Dnipro is unacceptable, but if Russia withdrew behind the river, it would form a natural barrier that would make it very hard to cross again.
 
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