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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Saakashvili, a master of political intrigue, very quickly seized the initiative, after which hysterically anti-Russian slogans began to appear. Their success is explained, among other things, by the fact that in recent years the anti-Russian trend in Georgia has been in vogue. Saakashvili was able to achieve this, including with the support of the United States, which directly finances such activities, including through numerous non-governmental organizations operating in Georgia, through very serious TV channels, through two factions in parliament. All these forces in recent years have built a situation when it became fashionable to be anti-Russian and pro-Western. And talking about rapprochement with Russia in the understanding of these people is a regression, only those who want almost the restoration of the USSR are in favor of this.
That's not me talking. That's Saakashvili right hand talking.
I see Jayjay "liked" it but did not comment, why not?
The "like" was for appreciating your taking the time to find the quote after I had asked for it. Obviously you put some extra effort to it, because in your earlier reply you said you said you didn't have it. the old reputation system in the old forum would've enabled me to express the thanks in words, but here all I can do is click the like button.

I still don't think it's the smoking gun you might think it is. All it shows is that US supported free press and civil society actors. Not that it was paying people to spread anti-Russian propaganda.

I can only speculate that was new to you. So my question to you how come it is news to you?
You have free and simply the best unbiased press, don't you?
Come on, Finland is not a totalitarian state with state propaganda news like this thing called Russia. So, what's the deal?
Who knows. A small country's media doesn't necessarily have the resources to follow ever local politician in even smaller countries. In this case, I personally didn't care about Georgia or Ukraine for that matter. This is really a problem though. The internal corruption and issues of that nature don't break the international news threshold, and then when shit hits the fan, it comes off as a huge surprise to most people.

I just read last week about drone strikes in Ethiopia. Fascinating stuff, but completely below my radar until now though the situation has been brewing for years.
 
In the 80s at a Lockheed division I was walking through a building hat did anti submarine work.

Somebody I knew called me into a room to see something. It was a Russian sonobuoy that had been disassembled. On a crcuit board was an Intel processor, despite the rules on technology. An embargo on electronics is not likely to keep parts out of Russia.
 
Obviously you put some extra effort to it, because in your earlier reply you said you said you didn't have it.
I still don't have it but the original wording was something to the extent of "Americans run with bags of money and throw it anybody who promise to trash Russia"
I believe it was off-hand remark right after Saakashvili started War with Russia and she split with him because of it. So basically she had been on board with this but could not after he started a war. So she just intentionally blurted the whole plan.


the old reputation system in the old forum would've enabled me to express the thanks in words, but here all I can do is click the like button.
I am not talking about words, I am talking about actual reply to the post!

Who knows. A small country's media doesn't necessarily have the resources to follow ever local politician in even smaller countries. In this case, I personally didn't care about Georgia or Ukraine for that matter.
No, you are not getting off that easy, simply because the same happened in big countries as well. Everybody "ignored" the bombshell. I put it in quotes because they did not ignore the bombshell. They knew damn well what US and West in general were doing all along, it's not secret for them. They just cover each other backs, because you are the good guys and Russia are the bad guys and the only way is to shut Russia down, smart people at Neocon University have thought about that and this the only way. So get on with a plan. Except as Mearsheimer correctly predicted, Russia could snap. And once Russia snaps NATO would have to think whether or not keep Baltic States in NATO.


I still don't think it's the smoking gun you might think it is. All it shows is that US supported free press and civil society actors. Not that it was paying people to spread anti-Russian propaganda.
It says exactly what I said it says. And it's happening in other countries as well.
On this very forum there was a thread or mentioning of a case where CIA were feeding favorable to them "info" to German newspaper, creating a narrative.
It's just that it is much easier and more useful to steer anti-russian hysteria in former USSR republics, all you need is to say magic word "Democracy" and you can do anything.
 
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I just read last week about drone strikes in Ethiopia. Fascinating stuff, but completely below my radar until now though the situation has been brewing for years.
With all due respect to Ethiopia, they don't have nukes.
But it is sad.

Having said that, I sometimes think about Iran, I know nothing about politics in Iran and after what US does/did to Russia, how can I be sure of anything MSM spews about Iran? I mean yeah, islamic regime, but besides that?
And Syria? There was that clearly staged by BBC video which they refused to admit they did anything wrong.

US can't sort out their trump problem and I am expected to trust what they say about Iran.
 
“Despite Crimea and everything else, Putin had always seemed an extremely pragmatic leader to me,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik. “But now when he’s gone in this war against Ukraine, the logic in the decision is all about emotions, it’s not rational.”
VP seems to have a map in his mind of what he wants Russia to be.
Central to that map is Ukraine, which he has described as an artificial state. “Modern Ukraine was wholly and fully created by Russia,” Putin said in a historical sleight-of-hand, “namely Bolshevik, communist Russia.”

To help picture it, state TV ran a map earlier this week showing Ukraine cut up to represent which parts were “presents” from various leaders, including Stalin, Lenin and Khrushchev. Some commentators said it represents the partition that Putin himself might be imagining if he gets his way.

Opinion | How to Think About Ukraine, in Maps and Charts - The New York Times

"Ukraine is Europe’s second largest country by land area and seventh largest by population."

It's roughly 1200 km / 700 mi east-west and 700 km / 400 mi north-south

It has a population of 44 million people and its largest city and capital city, Kyiv / Kiev, has 3 million.

Also mentioning a series of polls that showed Ukrainians turning against Russia in 2014, after Russia took over the Crimea. A case of Crimea and punishment. :D

Then, after noting that Ukraine supplies 49% of Libya's wheat imports, 45% of Tunisia's and 30% of Bangladesh's,
Sometimes referred to as the “breadbasket of Europe,” Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of grains. Prices of the commodity have already spiked, and supply disruptions could lead to increased food insecurity in countries that rely on Ukraine’s exports, such as Libya and Tunisia.

The largest shocks to the worldwide economy will likely be in the gas and oil markets. Europe relies heavily on its energy needs from Russia, and more than a third of Russia’s gas exports flow through Ukraine. As of Thursday afternoon, oil prices topped $100 a barrel for the first time in more than seven years. Some experts predict that consumers may see gas prices rise to more than $4 per gallon.

Ukraine itself is heavily dependent on nuclear energy, generating roughly half of its overall electricity at its 15 reactors scattered across the country. While the country may not export much of that energy, its nuclear power plants are still cause for concern: Attacks in that Chernobyl exclusion zone have prompted fears of kicked-up radioactive dust, which could drift across country borders.
Seattle has many orders of magnitude more reason to worry about radioactive dust, from Mount St Helens, than any country in Europe (including Ukraine) has to worry about radioactive dust from Chernobyl.

Radioactivity just isn't that dangerous - if it were, humanity would have been extinct before we invented the wheel.
 
Putin's only real hope of stopping this process would be to let go of any Ukrainian territories that actively resisted being dragged into the Russian Federation. This would serve his interests in very important respects. It would show the world that he is not going to subject an unwilling province to becoming a part of Russian territory, for one thing. Furthermore, he would thereby avoid the scenario where sustained and bloody resistance against him, in Ukraine, could put him at serious risk of provoking the sympathy of western Europe. He would have time to consolidate valuable territory that is host to people that had strong sympathy toward his government. This would give him a large degree of control over the northern Black Sea region.
I think this is exactly what he's got in mind. The use of the phrase "demilitarization" indicates that he intends to leave some part of Ukraine apparantely independent, but as a militarily, politically and economically a broken state. If his plan was to take over the whole country, then he wouldn't be talking about demilitarization, because Russian military, or local militias loyal to Russia, would obviously be stationed everywhere.
 
Ukraine invasion: Lawmakers push White House to oust Russia from UN Security Council | Fox News - "Push from lawmakers comes amid Russia invasion of Ukraine"
Congress wants to oust Russia from U.N. Security Council - Axios

"A resolution calling to kick Russia off the U.N. Security Council for its invasion of Ukraine — which has virtually no chance of being enforced — is circulating among House members from both parties, Axios has learned."

The article noted Reps. Claudia Tenney R-NY, Ann Wagner R-MO, Don Bacon R-NE, though the resolution is being distributed to all House members, members of both parties.

Axios has a copy of the draft resolution:
TENNEY_094_xml[36] (1) - DocumentCloud

Listing recent events as reasons for removing Russia from the UNSC.

It has not been released yet, as far as I can tell, and it is absent from congress.gov I searched there and I found another one: H.Res.219 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United Nations should forthwith take the procedural actions necessary to amend Article 23 of the Charter of the United Nations to remove the People's Republic of China as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

Listing these reasons:
Whereas the People’s Republic of China has grossly violated these values in their treatment of minorities within the People’s Republic of China, such as the Uyghur people and Tibetans;

Whereas Hong Kong was a beacon of democracy, economic progress, and human development while maintaining separate governing and economic systems from that of mainland China under the principle of “one country, two systems”;

Whereas the People’s Republic of China’s continued intervention in Hong Kong, including the controversial national security laws for Hong Kong passed by the National People’s Congress on May 28, 2020, further threatens the fundamental human rights and freedoms guaranteed to the people of Hong Kong; and

Whereas the People’s Republic of China lack of transparency and handling of the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in significantly greater lives lost and worldwide economic ruin: Now, therefore, be it
 
The civilian population is joining with their military forces in a last ditch effort to defend their nation and their freedom. The Russian advance is behind schedule. President Zelensky is still alive and holding out at this moment, but it is not certain that he will survive much longer. Russian forces have been recorded committing atrocities. For example, this video of a Russian tank deliberately running over a helpless civilian car. The driver apparently did survive.

Russian tank maliciously crushes civilian car with driver inside


Russian offensive unexpectedly slowed by fierce Ukrainian resistance


The eventual military route of the country is still not in doubt. Not even all the Russian military forces have been committed yet. However, this invasion is not going as planned, and Putin clearly did not expect this kind of massive resistance. The occupation will take place, but pacification of the civilian population is going to be a totally different matter.

Meanwhile, Russians are protesting now in scores of cities, and those demonstrations may grow, especially as Russia becomes more isolated and treated as a pariah state. Both Europe and the US are freezing Putin's and Lavrov's assets. Lavrov, who used to be more respected as Russia's chief diplomat, will probably never be able to rehabilitate his reputation in the world diplomatic community.
 
 United Nations Security Council

Chapter V: The Security Council (Articles 23-32) | United Nations

"The Republic of China, France, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America shall be permanent members of the Security Council."

Of these three, the US, the UK, and France have had no continuity problems. But the Soviet Union and China do.

"Republic of China" refers to  Republic of China (1912–1949) which had all the territory of present-day China and Taiwan.

The end date is for when the Chinese Communists overthrew the Republic of China in all but Taiwan, and Taiwan is still officially the Republic of China. So by continuity, China's seat belongs to Taiwan.

But from Wikipedia, "On 25 October 1971, over US opposition, but with the support of many Third World nations, along with the Socialist People's Republic of Albania, the mainland, communist People's Republic of China was given the Chinese seat on the Security Council in place of the Republic of China; the vote was widely seen as a sign of waning US influence in the organization."

Also, "After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation was recognized as the legal successor state of the Soviet Union and maintained the latter's position on the Security Council."
 
The difference is, Russia just lacks the force to pull that off. They don't have enough forces around Ukraine to occupy it in an insurgency.
I am afraid your hopes of insurgency are baseless.
Okay, is Ukraine full of anti-Russians making an insurgency of some form likely or not and an insurgency isn't likely. You are talking out of both sides of your mouth.
I already explained it to you. Current government was installed on the backs of vocal nazi minority. They can't just say "OK, enough with this naming streets after nazi baby killers!" because they will get another armed Maidan/Coup.
Bullshit. What kind of bargain-bin nazis would install a Jewish president?

Nationalist movements tend to have militant nazi-symphatisers on the edges, and it doesn't help that the historical figures who fought against the soviets for Ukrainian independence also happened to be nazi collaborators. But that doesn't mean that the hangers on have the power to install the government.

They are like trumpers and republican party, exactly like that.
The governments in Ukraine are incredibly weak and susceptible to maidans.
A government being susceptible to public protest when they reneg on campaign promises is a good thing. The maidan protests were about EU and trade, not street names or Russian language squabbles. And eitehr way warrant foreign military intervention.
 
A government being susceptible to public protest when they reneg on campaign promises is a good thing. The maidan protests were about EU and trade, not street names or Russian language squabbles. And eitehr way warrant foreign military intervention.
Ze promised to end war in East Ukraine..... he broke that promise.
The maidan protests were about EU and trade until Nuland sponsored nazi took over prostests. After that it became about "moskalyaku na gilyaku"
 
help that the historical figures who fought against the soviets for Ukrainian independence also happened to be nazi collaborators. But that doesn't mean that the hangers on have the power to install the government.
What kind of Jew (he is not technically) would accept support from groops associated with nazi collaborators who were murdering jews?
Well, apparently Zelensky would, and Poroshenko as well.

It does not really matter, facts are facts. They are naming streets after nazis.
Modern Ukraine national identity is based on nazis and hatred of everything Russia.
That's how they decided to build it.
Your beloved Baltic States, essentially the same problem - all national heroes from the 20th centrury - jew killers. There is no way around it. I blame Hitler, but it is what it is.
It's either jew killer or communist, pick your choice.

Jew or not jew was very important for German Nazi, they had strict rules and theory about that. All other nazis were mostly about killing anyone other than them or better had grudge against like communists and since most jews were communists anyway.
 
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You think your vote means something.
Stalin said it isn't who votes but who counts the votes. That's certainly accurate of what's happening in Russia. I'm not sure how democracy would work in Russia right now given the fact that it's still a society that has never experienced capitalism and freedom. People would be lost, probably expect too much and then be disappointed because there is so much corruption and crime that have been the levers of power for all their lives. And no independent reporting either.

You are mistaken if you think that Putin wins elections because he is "counting" votes.
He really does have the votes. And it is your obnoxious treatment of Russia for over 30 years is what contributes to that. Stop fooling yourself that US paid opposition has support of the people. You are not popular in Russia in any sense of the word.
Putin may or may not have the votes, but we'll never know because Russia doesn't have free elections or free press. He certainly doesn't think he has the votes, or else he wouldn't have to stuff the ballot boxes, silence any dissenting media, or assassinate his critics.
He has the votes. Don't fool yourself.
Excessively harsh treatment of the opposition is the result of western use of opposition to excite a revolt.
Paranoid delusions. If the elections were fair, there would be no need to revolt.
 
Meanwhile, group of members of Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) wrote a letter to President of Ukraine suggesting immediate talks with Russia.
Probably because they know the entire Ukrainian parliament will be sacked and they want to get on the good side of their next boss. Or at least avoid the execution squad.
 
Meanwhile, group of members of Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) wrote a letter to President of Ukraine suggesting immediate talks with Russia.
Probably because they know the entire Ukrainian parliament will be sacked and they want to get on the good side of their next boss. Or at least avoid the execution squad.
You mean like they did during 2014 US led coup when they banned russian language?
Yes, probably.
 
At this point I think it more productive to return to the topic of the original thread than to engage with trolls trying to justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So...

1) What if anything can the West do to support Ukraine in its defense? I do not think sanctions will force Russia to withdraw (any more than they did in the case of Afghanistan). Can the West in practice provide additional material support (is there a way for that support to reach Ukrainian forces that could use it)?

2) If a resistance develops, is there any point in *not* providing safe havens for it within bordering NATO countries (Poland, Romania, Slovakia) that are willing to host it? If there is a resistance, Putin will claim NATO is providing such safe havens whether or not it is true.

3) Can NATO strengthen its position in the Baltics sufficiently to deter Russian moves to bring those former SSRs within its "sphere of influence"?
1) Nothing. It's too late when the shit is already hitting the fan. In a few days, there might not even be an Ukraine as a country so the only help would be humanitarian, not military.

2) I doubt that there would be any official support for "Ukrainian resistance" if such a thing even develops. Normal people don't continue fighting, they flee or adapt to the new order. Only fanatics will keep "resisting" after the country has fallen: various militant nationalist groups and their ilk, and the only way they could operate if they are small groups working independently. It would be politically impossible for any European country to start funneling money or weapons to some random hillbilllies setting up roadside bombs. As for safe havens, probably it'll stop at granting asylum and no other support or even official recognition of any kind of "government in exile".

3) I hope so. The pre-existing deployments and mere NATO membership may have been enough already, but it's always better to be safe than sorry. A much more important deterrent against future attacks are the economic sanctions.
 
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