How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Tigers!]

I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.

A disingenuous offer wouldn’t benefit them in the long run IMO. It would encourage Russia, as it would be taken as a lack of resolve.

It wouldn't have to be disingenuous. Even if Ukraine's current position is that it wants Russia to withdraw to February 23 borders, there are other things to discuss like the status of Crimea and Donbas, and security guarantees for both countries.

The problem may be that Ukraine thinks it must, against its self-interest, remain intransigently antagonistic against evil Putin / Russia to appease its backers in the West. Yet, the flow of money and arms will, if not already, slow and end. Ukraine can cause Russian casualties but cannot maintain an offensive. Russia has the territory it wants and just has to sit it out. The West should signal that compromise is okay.

Russia is free to stop the military incursion into Ukraine whenever they want. They aren't being forced by Ukraine to be there.

You are saying that Ukraine should just compromise hand over the illegitimately invaded territory to Russia. Like that'll stop this from happening again... like in the 1930s.

No. I’m saying that every soldier who is killed, whether Ukrainian or Russian, is someone’s son, father, or brother. Ukrainian cannot expel Russia from the captured territory. Russia has little incentive to proceed further as it has what it wants for now. What is the point of more death for now?

FIFY

 

[Oleg]

I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.

A disingenuous offer wouldn’t benefit them in the long run IMO. It would encourage Russia, as it would be taken as a lack of resolve.

It wouldn't have to be disingenuous. Even if Ukraine's current position is that it wants Russia to withdraw to February 23 borders, there are other things to discuss like the status of Crimea and Donbas, and security guarantees for both countries.

The problem may be that Ukraine thinks it must, against its self-interest, remain intransigently antagonistic against evil Putin / Russia to appease its backers in the West. Yet, the flow of money and arms will, if not already, slow and end. Ukraine can cause Russian casualties but cannot maintain an offensive. Russia has the territory it wants and just has to sit it out. The West should signal that compromise is okay.

Russia is free to stop the military incursion into Ukraine whenever they want. They aren't being forced by Ukraine to be there.

You are saying that Ukraine should just compromise hand over the illegitimately invaded territory to Russia. Like that'll stop this from happening again... like in the 1930s.

No. I’m saying that every soldier who is killed, whether Ukrainian or Russian, is someone’s son, father, or brother. Ukrainian cannot expel Russia from the captured territory. Russia has little incentive to proceed further as it has what it wants for now. What is the point of more death for now?

FIFY

Oh, come on. Nothing stops Russia from taking Odessa and blocking Ukraine from the sea. Yet,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/ukraine-grain-deal-odessa-shipments-resume/

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.

A disingenuous offer wouldn’t benefit them in the long run IMO. It would encourage Russia, as it would be taken as a lack of resolve.

It wouldn't have to be disingenuous. Even if Ukraine's current position is that it wants Russia to withdraw to February 23 borders, there are other things to discuss like the status of Crimea and Donbas, and security guarantees for both countries.

The problem may be that Ukraine thinks it must, against its self-interest, remain intransigently antagonistic against evil Putin / Russia to appease its backers in the West. Yet, the flow of money and arms will, if not already, slow and end. Ukraine can cause Russian casualties but cannot maintain an offensive. Russia has the territory it wants and just has to sit it out. The West should signal that compromise is okay.

Russia is free to stop the military incursion into Ukraine whenever they want. They aren't being forced by Ukraine to be there.

You are saying that Ukraine should just compromise hand over the illegitimately invaded territory to Russia. Like that'll stop this from happening again... like in the 1930s.

No. I’m saying that every soldier who is killed, whether Ukrainian or Russian, is someone’s son, father, or brother. Ukrainian cannot expel Russia from the captured territory. Russia has little incentive to proceed further as it has what it wants. What is the point of more death?

So you are saying appease the invaders, you just want to pretend it isn’t appeasement,

 

[Elixir]

Question for @Oleg

Did barbos' handlers send you here?
If so, I must say you're already doing a better job than he is.

 

[Patooka]

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured, unlike what you did in Iraq/Afghanistan/etc.

Cool.

Name three. I'll wait.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.

A disingenuous offer wouldn’t benefit them in the long run IMO. It would encourage Russia, as it would be taken as a lack of resolve.

It wouldn't have to be disingenuous. Even if Ukraine's current position is that it wants Russia to withdraw to February 23 borders, there are other things to discuss like the status of Crimea and Donbas, and security guarantees for both countries.

The problem may be that Ukraine thinks it must, against its self-interest, remain intransigently antagonistic against evil Putin / Russia to appease its backers in the West. Yet, the flow of money and arms will, if not already, slow and end. Ukraine can cause Russian casualties but cannot maintain an offensive. Russia has the territory it wants and just has to sit it out. The West should signal that compromise is okay.

Russia is free to stop the military incursion into Ukraine whenever they want. They aren't being forced by Ukraine to be there.

You are saying that Ukraine should just compromise hand over the illegitimately invaded territory to Russia. Like that'll stop this from happening again... like in the 1930s.

No. I’m saying that every soldier who is killed, whether Ukrainian or Russian, is someone’s son, father, or brother. Ukrainian cannot expel Russia from the captured territory. Russia has little incentive to proceed further as it has what it wants for now. What is the point of more death for now?

FIFY

Oh, come on. Nothing stops Russia from taking Odessa and blocking Ukraine from the sea. Yet,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/ukraine-grain-deal-odessa-shipments-resume/

Except Russia is running out of tanks, trained, competent troops, smart weapons, gasoline, and ammunition. Meanwhile HARMs, artillery, HIMARs and anti-tank munitions are making their way Ukraine. Odessa is going to be an expensive operation Russia may not be willing to pay up for.

 

[Rhea]

Russia has the territory it wants and just has to sit it out. The West should signal that compromise is okay.

Russia is free to stop the military incursion into Ukraine whenever they want. They aren't being forced by Ukraine to be there.

You are saying that Ukraine should just compromise hand over the illegitimately invaded territory to Russia.

Ukrainian cannot expel Russia from the captured territory. Russia has little incentive to proceed further as it has what it wants. What is the point of more death?

So you are saying appease the invaders, you just want to pretend it isn’t appeasement,

That’s what I’m hearing, too.
There is no principle of sovereignty, just let the Russians have what they have now. It won’t embolden them at all.


But - didn’t Ukraine do exactly that with Crimea? And this happened. So how can you argue with a straight face that Russia would be appeased by this? And how can you argue with a straight face that ggiving the bully what he can take is a good solution?

 

[Patooka]

Russian authorities revealed data on ukrainian terrorist who assassinated Dugina.

Fun fact about Dugina, she was heavily involved with the Wagner Group as chief editor of the propaganda website, United World International.​

​

You remember the Wagner Group don't you Barbos? They're the actual Nazis who you seem to be allergic talking about.​

 

[laughing dog]

I’m of the view that if neither side wants to lose face, than the international community should pressure them to arbitrate. That’s a quirky 19th century solution that needs a come back.

And how would the international community pressure Russia or Ukraine to arbitrate?

 

[Tigers!]

I’m of the view that if neither side wants to lose face, than the international community should pressure them to arbitrate. That’s a quirky 19th century solution that needs a come back.

And how would the international community pressure Russia or Ukraine to arbitrate?

Sanctions?
Stern talking too?
Go to bed without dinner?

 

[Bronzeage]

Yes, bombing a car and killing a civilian is terrorism, but bombing Ukraine and killing thousands is simply the reunification

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured, unlike what you did in Iraq/Afghanistan/etc.

In ten years, the Russian military suffered 15,000 combat deaths in Afghanistan. In six months in Ukraine, the number just topped 45,000.

So, either the Russian Army has lost it's measure and accuracy, or Ukrainians are better than Afghanis.

 

[barbos]

Yes, bombing a car and killing a civilian is terrorism, but bombing Ukraine and killing thousands is simply the reunification

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured, unlike what you did in Iraq/Afghanistan/etc.

In ten years, the Russian military suffered 15,000 combat deaths in Afghanistan. In six months in Ukraine, the number just topped 45,000.

Why not 10 million?
You do realize that you have being lied to?
Correct estimate is about 15K for russian side (including DNR/LNR)
and last time I checked ~50k on ukrainian side.
The idea that russians would lose more than ukrainians while having 10x more artillery power is insane.
And yes, russian losses are noticeable because Russai is fighting NATO, albeit not directly (sometimes actually directly). Not some peasants in Afghanistan.

So, either the Russian Army has lost it's measure and accuracy, or Ukrainians are better than Afghanis.

The number you quoted is a lie. Moreover, most of Russian casualties happened during the early stage of the war.

 

[barbos]

Russian authorities revealed data on ukrainian terrorist who assassinated Dugina.

Fun fact about Dugina, she was heavily involved with the Wagner Group as chief editor of the propaganda website, United World International.​

​

You remember the Wagner Group don't you Barbos? They're the actual Nazis who you seem to be allergic talking about.​

How can I forget about it, you keep reminding me that.
And no, actual nazis are in Kiev. Your single photo of unknown veracity notwithstanding.

 

[barbos]

Except Russia is running out of tanks, trained, competent troops, smart weapons, gasoline, and ammunition

LOL, OK, how can Russia run off gasoline?
And no. Russia does not run out of anything.It's Ukraine who ran out of troops. Yes, all their men with any professional training are either dead or captured.
They have to resort to catching men on beaches and send them to "war" without any training whatsoever.
Tanks? what tanks? Russia does not really use tanks that much.
It's artillery and drones.

 

[barbos]

"Russia has little reason to keep going" Oleg, you sound like barbos did on page 1.

Might as well say "Germans have little incentive" ala 1930's.

It's all just bullshit Russian propaganda that they would ever stop or leave without getting their faces eaten.

What reason does it have to keep going? It’s got the eastern territory with its Russian majority, a land bridge to Crimea, and Crimea. Now it’s just wait out the clock.

Yes, wait for the winter..... in Europe

 

[barbos]

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured, unlike what you did in Iraq/Afghanistan/etc.

Cool.

Name three. I'll wait.

Why 3? Because you already know 2?
Clown Fuhrer and his western masters are losing.

 

[Patooka]

Why 3? Because you already know 2?
Clown Fuhrer and his western masters are losing.

That you are unable to is unfortunately not the least bit surprising.

 

[Bronzeage]

Yes, bombing a car and killing a civilian is terrorism, but bombing Ukraine and killing thousands is simply the reunification

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured, unlike what you did in Iraq/Afghanistan/etc.

In ten years, the Russian military suffered 15,000 combat deaths in Afghanistan. In six months in Ukraine, the number just topped 45,000.

Why not 10 million?
You do realize that you have being lied to?
Correct estimate is about 15K for russian side (including DNR/LNR)
and last time I checked ~50k on ukrainian side.
The idea that russians would lose more than ukrainians while having 10x more artillery power is insane.
And yes, russian losses are noticeable because Russai is fighting NATO, albeit not directly (sometimes actually directly). Not some peasants in Afghanistan.

So, either the Russian Army has lost it's measure and accuracy, or Ukrainians are better than Afghanis.

The number you quoted is a lie. Moreover, most of Russian casualties happened during the early stage of the war.

If heavy casualties, and 45,000 is a conservative estimate, because they find themselves fighting NATO, is a problem, they should have considered what was going to happen before invading Ukraine.

There a simple reason the Russian Military can't defend against NATO. The western powers have spent 40 years preparing for the Russian Army that Russia would have been. They looked at the money being spent and assumed it was being spent on military power. After all, NATO knew what they would do with the money, so figured Russia was doing the same.

Unfortunately, most of the money went to super yachts and villas in France. It turns out, there wasn't enough left over to make a decent tank.

 

[Bronzeage]

Yes, bombing a car and killing a civilian is terrorism, but bombing Ukraine and killing thousands is simply the reunification

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured, unlike what you did in Iraq/Afghanistan/etc.

In ten years, the Russian military suffered 15,000 combat deaths in Afghanistan. In six months in Ukraine, the number just topped 45,000.

Why not 10 million?
You do realize that you have being lied to?
Correct estimate is about 15K for russian side (including DNR/LNR)
and last time I checked ~50k on ukrainian side.
The idea that russians would lose more than ukrainians while having 10x more artillery power is insane.
And yes, russian losses are noticeable because Russai is fighting NATO, albeit not directly (sometimes actually directly). Not some peasants in Afghanistan.

So, either the Russian Army has lost it's measure and accuracy, or Ukrainians are better than Afghanis.

The number you quoted is a lie. Moreover, most of Russian casualties happened during the early stage of the war.

If heavy casualties, and 45,000 is a conservative estimate, because they find themselves fighting NATO, is a problem, they should have considered what was going to happen before invading Ukraine.

There a simple reason the Russian Military can't defend against NATO. The western powers have spent 40 years preparing for the Russian Army that Russia would have been. They looked at the money being spent and assumed it was being spent on military power. After all, NATO knew what they would do with the money, so figured Russia was doing the same.

Unfortunately, most of the money went to super yachts and villas in France. It turns out, there wasn't enough left over to make a decent tank.

 

[barbos]

If heavy casualties, and 45,000 is a conservative estimate

15K is the real number.