How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

Just thought it would be fun to have a little “memory lane” trip back to page 1, when barbos was sure Ukraine was worthless, and not wanted by Russia and Russia has no designs on invading and this was Obvious. The eastern sttrech, indeed, is worthless to Russia!!

I have no idea how "the west" should respond, because I can't understand what - if anything - Russia figures to gain by this.
My suspicion is that there is little interest in conquering and occupying Ukraine, and the whole charade is a distractive display of nationalism, by which Putin perhaps hopes to elevate his own domestic standing, which has reportedly been suffering of late.

Projecting again? No one in Russia considers it a great idea.

Putin does not need to invade anyone. All he needs is to start North Stream 2 and wait until all contracts with Ukrainian pipelines expire.
Ukraine and US, on the other hand, realize that they need some drastic shit to prevent that.

Your posts to Elixir don't make sense to me. Where is the projecting?

He is projecting when he suggests that It's Russia. It's Ukraine and their nazies who are desperate enough to start a war and play the victim and US is perfectly fine with that plan. After all it worked in Georgia, why not try again?

Ukraine is in deep economic shit. They need a war, not Russia.
Russia is doing fine, gas prices at all time highs, oil is too doing well.
And Ukraine is about to collapse on their own. Gas retail prices jumped 5x, Power stations shutdowns because of lack coal.
Well, there is a risk of Ukrainian Trump starting a war, that's bad.

Are you trying to say that Russia isn't amassing troops on the Ukrainian border?

I am saying that MSM forgot to inform you that Ukrainian Trump is doing the same.
And, unlike Russia, in doing so they are violating Minsk agreements.

Russian press discuss how much that supposedly leaked invasion plan looks like it was made up in Pentagon (military terms which are not used in Russia and other stuff)

That explains the est. 90,000 troop buildup on the Ukranian Border.

Yes, it actually explains it. Because Ukraine moved half on their of forces to the border with breakout republics. If US wants to start a war then Russia must be prepared.

ROFL the stuff your sources feed you about the USA are lies as well, and generally better crafted.
I was going to mention how Putin is probably afraid that Ukraine will invade Russia with US backing, to support Ukrainian imperial expansionist ambitions.
Glad I didn’t mention it

My sources? how are they mine? these are ukrainian sources, they don't really hide their intentions. And stop this crap about russian expansion. All Russia wants is for US stop paying scam around Russia to be a scam.
And Germany in particular agrees with that. The rest of the old EU agrees too, they are just less vocal about it.

The problem here is that it seems like Russia wants a war with Ukraine, for the express purposes of annexation of territory.

That's what MSM says, they are lying. Eastern Ukraine in particular is very unattractive piece of territory. There is only one reason for invading Ukraine - NATO expansion.
Putin informed NATO about that reason in 2008. You should know that by now.

Aww, poor Pootey! Spent so many of his (stolen) billions trying to keep Ukraine in his portfolio, and now the bad bad US wants to kick the poor humanitarian to the curb and let the Trumpy Ukranians ally themselves with the European aggressors who have been trying to invade Russia and annex it for its oil ever since Crimea volunteered to become part of Russia.

^^^
Your news sources have turned you into a laughingstock, barbos.
Putin's ambition to re-create the Soviet glory days has remained the one constant in his erratic behavior. You can dress it up with all kinds lies, you can cite corrupt American motives, real and imagined, but the fact of Russia's perennial aggression can't be magically disappeared by your whining.

Can't counter facts and resort to attacking the messenger?

If "the messenger" ever came up with actual facts that were relevant and in context, I probably wouldn't counter them since they would be facts. But your specious pro-Putin bullshit contains few facts, and those it does reference are warped beyond recognition by the bias forced upon you by your handlers.
Not worth addressing, when the overriding fact is that rationalizing Russia's expansionist ambitions are truly the sole focus of all the arguments you've been fed. All those whataboutisms and false fears of the mighty Ukranian Empire encroaching on Russian territory - it's all bullshit, no matter how many irrelevant facts (like Russian nukes in Cuba) you try to drag into it.

Tell your bosses they need to send you into battle better equipped than this! It will make for much better discussion.

I came with undeniable facts which refute your MSM "facts".
So stop your tiresome "Russian expansionism!" song.
Go and educate yourself.

Yup. Barbos’ history in this thread is one of epic foolishness, errors and lies (his, and/or those of others).
It mystifies me that anyone takes anything he continues to blather as anything more than the tantrums of a toddler.

I don't disagree with you at all. To me, the interesting part is how many people in Russia agree with Barbos, how many want peace? I think (my opinion) is that Barbos represents the majority in Russia. The peace-loving people who want a better future to have either fled or are keeping quiet. This means that Russia is going to keep going. They want all of Ukraine. So, our choice is to either help Ukraine try to survive; or standby and let the Russians commit the greatest crime of this century (by far).

It doesn't matter what the majority of Russians think or want. It's a "one man, one vote" situation; Putin is the man, and only he gets to vote.

This is a common mistake in international affairs. Americans care about public opinion, because it matters in America, so they assume it matters everywhere. Then they waste vast effort trying to sway public opinion in totalitarian hellholes, to exactly zero effect.

Totalitarian nations make the same error the other way around, getting upset because the US government doesn't silence criticism of the totalitarian regime. This butt-hurt is, of course, only of consequence if you assume government controls the media; But leaders of totalitarian states don't grasp that the US government really truly and honestly doesn't have the means to silence critics even if they wanted to.

Everyone assumes that their local conditions are laws of nature. But they ain't.

 

[Jayjay]

Damn. Even Olaf is throwing down long term.

Germany to send €500 million in new weapons

Nope. No time soon.

Why don't you dick around with elections some more, Vlad. See what that gets you.

2023 maybe a bit too late to make a difference in borders. Russia will be solidly entrenched by then. But it might help Ukraine hold the line and help bring a negotiated solution a couple of years down the line.

 

[Bronzeage]

There a simple reason the Russian Military can't defend against NATO. The western powers have spent 40 years preparing for the Russian Army that Russia would have been. They looked at the money being spent and assumed it was being spent on military power. After all, NATO knew what they would do with the money, so figured Russia was doing the same.

Unfortunately, most of the money went to super yachts and villas in France. It turns out, there wasn't enough left over to make a decent tank.

There are perils inherent in kleptocracy. Before Americans let that happen (more) here, we should learn from the example of the Russian disaster. Greed kills, and it is well on the way to killing Russia.

Any hierarchy reflects the personality of the person at the top. Putin turned the Russian government into a criminal operation and now he has reaped the inevitable results.

When this kind of corruption is spread to the military, we see Colonels selling the fuel intended for training exercises. This goes down through the ranks until conscripts show up for duty and there's no boots because the corporal in charge of the warehouse sold them. The private soldiers don't have anything to sell, except the copper wiring they strip out of trucks that can't be driven because there's no fuel.

Side note:
In Tom Clancy's 1986 novel, Red Storm Rising, the basic plot is the Soviet Union is suddenly faced with a severe oil shortage. This makes them feel very vulnerable. Their solution is to invade Saudi Arabia and seize the oil fields. Before they do that, they have to break up NATO. This means an invasion of Germany. The first part of the book is about western intelligence services trying to interpret reports out of Russia, as the military prepares for a major war. One report tells about the execution of several Colonels who have been caught falsifying training records and pocketing the money that was meant for ammunition. Apparently, Putin never read the book.

 

[barbos]

If heavy casualties, and 45,000 is a conservative estimate

15K is the real number.

Casualties includes wounded and captured. 45K is probably a low number. But the larger issue is your side getting out of this? At the end of day, the war will end at some point. The Orcs will get some land most likely. But what is the cost here for your side? Ukraine was weak and disjointed (50-50 pro Russia vs west). Now, it's nearly united to oppose Russia. And they are armed. You'll have a very upset neighbor armed to the teeth for the long term future. Pre war, NATO was pretty weak. They are united now and very compelled to stop Russia. Finland and Norway have joined NATO. Putler made a huge blunder attacking Ukraine that will haunt Russia for a generation.

Ukrainian regime are filthy liars and you are using their numbers.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine existed before Moscow or Russia. Ukraine is Russia's daddy.

Nope. Kiev existed before Moscow. But there were no Ukraine, that would be linguistically impossible.
And why does it even matter?

 

[Patooka]

Ukraine existed before Moscow or Russia. Ukraine is Russia's daddy.

Nope. Kiev existed before Moscow. But there were no Ukraine, that would be linguistically impossible.
And why does it even matter?

This is without a doubt the stupidest fucking thing you have said so far.

By your logic, the UK can take back Ireland, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand any time they like because all those countries speak English. That's over half a billion people on the planet telling you how fucking wrong you are.

By the way...

You have yet to provide any proof to your assertion (and I'm being real fucking generous calling it an assertion instead of what deserves to be called) here:

American military experts are on records saying that Russian military operation is extremely accurate and measured

Is it safe for me to assume you are once again not going to supply any evidence for the crap you spew (I guess I'm not that generous after all) and chalk this up to yet another fantasy you hope everyone will forget you saying?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Just thought it would be fun to have a little “memory lane” trip back to page 1, when barbos was sure Ukraine was worthless, and not wanted by Russia and Russia has no designs on invading and this was Obvious. The eastern sttrech, indeed, is worthless to Russia!!

I have no idea how "the west" should respond, because I can't understand what - if anything - Russia figures to gain by this.
My suspicion is that there is little interest in conquering and occupying Ukraine, and the whole charade is a distractive display of nationalism, by which Putin perhaps hopes to elevate his own domestic standing, which has reportedly been suffering of late.

Projecting again? No one in Russia considers it a great idea.

Putin does not need to invade anyone. All he needs is to start North Stream 2 and wait until all contracts with Ukrainian pipelines expire.
Ukraine and US, on the other hand, realize that they need some drastic shit to prevent that.

Your posts to Elixir don't make sense to me. Where is the projecting?

He is projecting when he suggests that It's Russia. It's Ukraine and their nazies who are desperate enough to start a war and play the victim and US is perfectly fine with that plan. After all it worked in Georgia, why not try again?

Ukraine is in deep economic shit. They need a war, not Russia.
Russia is doing fine, gas prices at all time highs, oil is too doing well.
And Ukraine is about to collapse on their own. Gas retail prices jumped 5x, Power stations shutdowns because of lack coal.
Well, there is a risk of Ukrainian Trump starting a war, that's bad.

Are you trying to say that Russia isn't amassing troops on the Ukrainian border?

I am saying that MSM forgot to inform you that Ukrainian Trump is doing the same.
And, unlike Russia, in doing so they are violating Minsk agreements.

Russian press discuss how much that supposedly leaked invasion plan looks like it was made up in Pentagon (military terms which are not used in Russia and other stuff)

That explains the est. 90,000 troop buildup on the Ukranian Border.

Yes, it actually explains it. Because Ukraine moved half on their of forces to the border with breakout republics. If US wants to start a war then Russia must be prepared.

ROFL the stuff your sources feed you about the USA are lies as well, and generally better crafted.
I was going to mention how Putin is probably afraid that Ukraine will invade Russia with US backing, to support Ukrainian imperial expansionist ambitions.
Glad I didn’t mention it

My sources? how are they mine? these are ukrainian sources, they don't really hide their intentions. And stop this crap about russian expansion. All Russia wants is for US stop paying scam around Russia to be a scam.
And Germany in particular agrees with that. The rest of the old EU agrees too, they are just less vocal about it.

The problem here is that it seems like Russia wants a war with Ukraine, for the express purposes of annexation of territory.

That's what MSM says, they are lying. Eastern Ukraine in particular is very unattractive piece of territory. There is only one reason for invading Ukraine - NATO expansion.
Putin informed NATO about that reason in 2008. You should know that by now.

Aww, poor Pootey! Spent so many of his (stolen) billions trying to keep Ukraine in his portfolio, and now the bad bad US wants to kick the poor humanitarian to the curb and let the Trumpy Ukranians ally themselves with the European aggressors who have been trying to invade Russia and annex it for its oil ever since Crimea volunteered to become part of Russia.

^^^
Your news sources have turned you into a laughingstock, barbos.
Putin's ambition to re-create the Soviet glory days has remained the one constant in his erratic behavior. You can dress it up with all kinds lies, you can cite corrupt American motives, real and imagined, but the fact of Russia's perennial aggression can't be magically disappeared by your whining.

Can't counter facts and resort to attacking the messenger?

If "the messenger" ever came up with actual facts that were relevant and in context, I probably wouldn't counter them since they would be facts. But your specious pro-Putin bullshit contains few facts, and those it does reference are warped beyond recognition by the bias forced upon you by your handlers.
Not worth addressing, when the overriding fact is that rationalizing Russia's expansionist ambitions are truly the sole focus of all the arguments you've been fed. All those whataboutisms and false fears of the mighty Ukranian Empire encroaching on Russian territory - it's all bullshit, no matter how many irrelevant facts (like Russian nukes in Cuba) you try to drag into it.

Tell your bosses they need to send you into battle better equipped than this! It will make for much better discussion.

I came with undeniable facts which refute your MSM "facts".
So stop your tiresome "Russian expansionism!" song.
Go and educate yourself.

Yup. Barbos’ history in this thread is one of epic foolishness, errors and lies (his, and/or those of others).
It mystifies me that anyone takes anything he continues to blather as anything more than the tantrums of a toddler.

I don't disagree with you at all. To me, the interesting part is how many people in Russia agree with Barbos, how many want peace? I think (my opinion) is that Barbos represents the majority in Russia. The peace-loving people who want a better future to have either fled or are keeping quiet. This means that Russia is going to keep going. They want all of Ukraine. So, our choice is to either help Ukraine try to survive; or standby and let the Russians commit the greatest crime of this century (by far).

It doesn't matter what the majority of Russians think or want. It's a "one man, one vote" situation; Putin is the man, and only he gets to vote.

This is a common mistake in international affairs. Americans care about public opinion, because it matters in America, so they assume it matters everywhere. Then they waste vast effort trying to sway public opinion in totalitarian hellholes, to exactly zero effect.

Totalitarian nations make the same error the other way around, getting upset because the US government doesn't silence criticism of the totalitarian regime. This butt-hurt is, of course, only of consequence if you assume government controls the media; But leaders of totalitarian states don't grasp that the US government really truly and honestly doesn't have the means to silence critics even if they wanted to.

Everyone assumes that their local conditions are laws of nature. But they ain't.

With respect, I don't agree. Yes, Russia is basically a dictatorship. However, they are one of the most obsessed countries in the world about the personal opinions of their citizens! They spend enormous resources trying to control what people think in their country. And when people start spewing against the government, they get sent to the gulag or killed. Most likely it was Putin who when after Darya Dugina's father because he had been attacking Putin as not killing enough Ukrainians:

Opinion: Father of slain Russian commentator Darya Dugina has been fiercely critical of Putin

I think that the danger here is believing that secretly the Russians want peace, love Ukraine, are embarrassed at how low they are perceived in the world; and then as soon as Putin dies some day; a new leader will get elected that will follow the will of the people and peace will rein! I actually think that Putin is a moderate voice in Russia today (believe it or not). I think that a majority want war. They want Russia to use it's incredibly great military to expand and take land.

 

[Jarhyn]

I think that a majority want war. They want Russia to use it's incredibly great military to expand and take land

The issue is that Russia is a police state and the media sing Putin's tune on the air or sing nothing at the gulag with their tongue cut out.

So if so many are chomping at the bit for war, it's because he used propaganda to push that view on purpose.

 

[Elixir]

Ukrainian regime are filthy liars

Sez Mr. "THERE WILL BE NO INVASION"
Barbos is admirably pigheaded, but at some point he ought to realize that whatever credibility he may have once enjoyed here, is shot to hell since he started parroting Kremlin propaganda.

 

[Jarhyn]

Ukrainian regime are filthy liars

Sez Mr. "THERE WILL BE NO INVASION"
Barbos is admirably pigheaded, but at some point he ought to realize that whatever credibility he may have once enjoyed here, is shot to hell since he started parroting Kremlin propaganda.

To be fair, I make no assumptions as to how and why Barbos came to parrot Russian propaganda so in-bad-faithfully, making such bold claims as "Russia won't" and then pivot so seemlessly to "Ukraine Deserves It."

I only surmise that they have their reasons.

It's not exactly safe to both have regular internet access in Russia to such alternative sources of information from the Kremlin and not also speak exactly what Russian interests would see spoken there.

 

[Patooka]

Heh, Ukraine is trolling something fierce.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

You know... the humorous part of that is it really saving face if Ukrainians or dissidents successfully targeted an ammo dump... but you say you have such low quality control that warm weather caused the place to go up instead? It appears to trade susceptibility for incompetence... which isn't really saving face.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ukraine existed before Moscow or Russia. Ukraine is Russia's daddy.

Nope. Kiev existed before Moscow. But there were no Ukraine, that would be linguistically impossible.
And why does it even matter?

Good point. It isn't like Kiiv is even in play. The battle map for a while has looked a lot like a WWI map, where there has been a good deal of time passing and very very little progress being made in any direction. The Russians troops are fighting with an arm tied behind their back... and aren't making any progress past the areas Putin instigated rebels (or made them up and was using Russian forces in lieu of actual rebels) for a decade. That is mostly because Ukraine sunk one ship. Just one fucking ship. It'd be nice if Russia either just took over Ukraine already or they get off the damn pot.

The Ukrainians are starting to falter in faith of holding the Russians out. American media has been wrong for three whole years.

 

[Copernicus]

Ukraine existed before Moscow or Russia. Ukraine is Russia's daddy.

Nope. Kiev existed before Moscow. But there were no Ukraine, that would be linguistically impossible.
And why does it even matter?

It is technically incorrect to say that a country is "linguistically impossible", since language does not define where a country is. That is politics, and Moscow was just a subordinate settlement of Suzdal when it was founded in the 12th century. it wasn't until almost 1400 that Muscovy assumed control of Suzdal and Nizhny Novgorod. Meanwhile, Kyiv had long been a major administrative and cultural center for a very long time. Tsars did not even exist until Ivan Grozny gave himself that title in 1547, when Kyiv was part of the Polish-Lithuania Commonwealth and outside of its control. The princely and boyar families of Kyiv traced their roots to Kyivan Rus long before Russia existed. Kyiv had been part of the Commonwealth for three centuries when the Russian empire expanded to engulf the region. Ukraine was only part of the Russian Empire for 120 years.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Patooka]

I guess "de-nazifying" isn't the be all and end all some people want to spew. How about that?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The idea of a Ukrainian hit squad sent to Moscow to target Dugin is absurd.

Why? they have been doing that lately and the last 8 years (in Donbas) really.

Ukrainian hit squads in Donbas?! That makes no sense, what would they be targeting?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I’m of the view that if neither side wants to lose face, than the international community should pressure them to arbitrate. That’s a quirky 19th century solution that needs a come back.

Arbitrate what?

Ukraine either comes out of this with a major victory or effectively dead. There's no middle ground. If somehow a "solution" were imposed it would just be a case of kicking the can.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There a simple reason the Russian Military can't defend against NATO. The western powers have spent 40 years preparing for the Russian Army that Russia would have been. They looked at the money being spent and assumed it was being spent on military power. After all, NATO knew what they would do with the money, so figured Russia was doing the same.

Unfortunately, most of the money went to super yachts and villas in France. It turns out, there wasn't enough left over to make a decent tank.

There are perils inherent in kleptocracy. Before Americans let that happen (more) here, we should learn from the example of the Russian disaster. Greed kills, and it is well on the way to killing Russia.

Also, it doesn't make the news much but look at what's happened to Sri Lanka. The kleptocrats stole so much that they can't even import fertilizer.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If heavy casualties, and 45,000 is a conservative estimate

15K is the real number.

Casualties includes wounded and captured. 45K is probably a low number. But the larger issue is your side getting out of this? At the end of day, the war will end at some point. The Orcs will get some land most likely. But what is the cost here for your side? Ukraine was weak and disjointed (50-50 pro Russia vs west). Now, it's nearly united to oppose Russia. And they are armed. You'll have a very upset neighbor armed to the teeth for the long term future. Pre war, NATO was pretty weak. They are united now and very compelled to stop Russia. Finland and Norway have joined NATO. Putler made a huge blunder attacking Ukraine that will haunt Russia for a generation.

Ukrainian regime are filthy liars and you are using their numbers.

The Russian numbers are clearly bogus as they're way below photographically confirmed kills.