How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

An optimistic read. Ukraine is not going to recover from this pointless war very quickly, if at all.

Agreed. Russia will destroy every "thing" that comprised the way it was for Ukranians, their former lifestyle, cultural inheritances and means of production. Recovery implies a return to some semblance of a former state, and that's going to be impossible regardless of military outcomes.

 

[bilby]

We might see a stable Democratic and peaceful country, like Germany after WWII.

That would depend entirely on how the peace was managed.

We might see an unstable, ultimately despotic and warlike country, like Germany after WWI.

The cheapest option in the long run would entail massive short term spending by the EU and USA, to build infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine, similar to the Marshall Plan post WWII.

The most expensive option would entail reparation payments to Ukraine, and the imposition of harsh terms for Russian trade (eg a requirement to sell gas to the EU at a discount, or to divert the proceeds to those reparations). This would be very inexpensive for the EU and USA, for the first few election cycles (despite being hugely expensive thereafter) so it's quite likely to happen.

 

[steve_bank]

Nobody of any consequence is going to do business in Russia. No legal stability and rule of law to protect their interest from arbitrary government action.

Russian soldiers are fighting for nothing, the flip side of WWII.

Wealthy Russians can no operate freely in the west where life is good for them.

Average Russians can no longer easily cross te border.


Putin threatened world grain supplies, I doubt that will be forgotten.

It is difficult but Europe will get off Russian energy.

Russia has had a shrinking population before the war, it will probably worsen.

Finland and Sweden are joining NATO.

In the balance the odds are on the Ukrainians. They may not get all the land back, but Russia has damaged itself inside and out.

Authoritarianism again shows itself to be far worse than any forms of western democracy. China is showing a few cracks.

An optimistic read. Ukraine is not going to recover from this pointless war very quickly, if at all.

Not optimistic, statig the obvious.

Putin wanted to restore the Soviet Union and his Russia is failing for the same reasons.

First an foremost a pathological need to reject any beneficial cooperation wit the west.
Unsustainable military growth.
A stifled economy riddled with corruption and incipetence.
Lack of civil rights.
A pathological antagonism to the west.

China integrated into the western economic system while marinating its autoterian system, and the Chinese peole beifited. I don't n exaggerated sense of pride, as in rejecting foreign COVID vaccines.

In post communist caparison Russia is a dismal place before the war.

As I like to put it they still can't make a decent car and commercial jet. Remember Putin's fiasco with the Olympic construction protects? Incompetence on a grand scale.

Germany and Japan syabilized into democracies because we and Europe had a presence through today.

 

[Jayjay]

However, if Putler was winning, why does he continue to beg for negotiations?

MSN

www.msn.com

I don't think that Putler is sincere in his negotiations in the least. But I think that he's desperate to have a time to regroup, rearm, and then reattack. I think that they are on the brink of massive collapse. But maybe I'm just dreaming.....

I think it's for internal consumption. Putin is well aware that the support for the war is waning, and already the majority supports negotiatons:

Make peace, not war The Kremlin’s internal polling shows that more than half of Russians now favor negotiations with Ukraine, while only a quarter want to continue the invasion — Meduza

Article by Andrey Pertsev. Translation by Anna Razumnaya.

meduza.io

So, Putin has to spin a yarn that he's all for negotiating, but NATO and Ukraine are refusing. Putin doesn't have to suck up to public opinion of course, as Russia isn't a democracy, but he seems very sensitive to keeping up appearances and making sure that he is seen as a benevolent Tsar who listens to his subjects' concerns.

If Putin was calling for negotiations out of pure desperation, or even as a delaying tactic, then he wouldn't set up ridiculous pre-conditions like the west ceasing all military and financial aid and recognizing all Russian annexations before even sitting at the table.

 

[Copernicus]

It's a war of attrition now, and that favors Russia, which has won all its wars by throwing ridiculous number of people into the meat grinder.

Jayjay, you are just wrong about Russia winning "all its wars" that way. It is true that Russia has used human wave tactics a lot in the past, but it did not actually win its war against Finland. Stalin got some of what he wanted, but he really wanted to crush Finland. That didn't happen. Nor did the tsarist regime win WWI by throwing overwhelming numbers at the Western front. In fact, its tactics backfired. Nor did Trotsky manage to overwhelm Poland and reclaim it for the emerging new Soviet regime. I could go on, but human wave tactics are not enough to win these wars. At this point, Putin is calling for negotiations precisely because he has taken about as much Ukrainian territory as he is likely to grab and hold, if he can get a truce in place. That will allow him to regroup and plan for some future invasion, probably by whoever replaces him in the future. Otherwise, he stands to lose even more territory or, worse yet, take more Ukrainian territory that gains him nothing more than a continuation of his forever war to patch back together an empire that Russia lost with the total collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

[lpetrich]

On the war itself:

AlexandruC4 on Twitter: "BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops reached the city of Kreminna and fighting is happening at the outskirts (pic link)" / Twitter - that's on the northeastern front.

Further north:
Ukraine update: The battle for Svatove approaches as Ukraine reportedly liberates four more villages

The latest advances show that Ukraine has reportedly liberated a series of four villages just west of Svatove. This would seem to put Ukraine in control of the critical junction between the P66 and P07 highways, and position them to take the high ground above the city. Meanwhile, the administrative offices of the local “Luhansk People’s Republic” have reportedly been deserted, as Russian officials flee Svatove.

It’s been over two months since the city of Lyman was liberated, and in that time Ukraine has slowly moved toward the cities of Kreminna and Svatove. At both locations, Ukraine has seemingly tried to duplicate the tactics that allowed them to take Lyman with relatively few losses — capture surrounding villages, cut off supply routes, and gradually close in while leaving Russians a single route of escape. However, that’s been much more difficult at Svatove and Kreminna, because the main highway in the area runs north—south, Ukrainian forces were approaching from the west, and the muds of fall have made it nearly impossible to move along the area’s dirt roads.

Very sensible. Also, spring and fall are mud seasons, and it's hard to travel. But the ground is now much more solid, so it should be easier to travel. The Ukrainians should be well bundled up, as opposed to the Russians, so it'll look like an inverse of Russia's defeat of Napoleon's and Hitler's armies.

However, in the last few days Ukrainian forces have reportedly battled their way ever closer to Kreminna, fighting through woodlands south of the city and advancing down a single heavily-mined highway from the west. And now there are reports of even more rapid movement near Svatove, where a breakthrough appears to have resulted in the rapid liberation of a string of villages, putting Ukranian forces in position to move on the city.

Still unconfirmed, however.

 

[lpetrich]

Andy Kim on Twitter: "I just got to see up close the Ukrainian flag that President Zelenskyy presented in his address before Congress last night. Powerful to read all the words and see the signatures of the fighters at the frontlines. “With full respect and gratitude from the defenders of Bakhmut” (pix link)" / Twitter

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Russians are gradually losing ground in Bakhmut. After their defeat in the industrial sector in the east, Ukrainian troops push north-east and south. Optytne has been liberated by 80%.
If Russians don't deploy reserves, then it's game over for them in Bakhmut. #Bakhmut (pic link)" / Twitter
Seems stalemated.

BlackNAFO on Twitter: "Not just in #Kreminna reports now coming in that ZSU presence INSIDE #Svatove as well (vid link)" / Twitter
and
BlackNAFO on Twitter: "Russian LINES are CRUMBLING like #Kharkiv folks
BELIEVE in the Ukrainian Armed Forces (vid link)" / Twitter
with clips from "Braveheart"
then
Skylar on Twitter: "Lots of chatter about this. Nothing confirmed, yet. Same thing for the Kinburn Peninsula. Also, looting starting up in Kreminna, which is a pattern when RU leaves. They take everything from light fixtures to women's underwear to hairdryers." / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Some Ukrainians celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25 to part ways with Russia. Here’s why - National | Globalnews.ca

Ukrainians usually celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7, as do the Russians. But not this year, or at least not all of them.

Some Orthodox Ukrainians have decided to observe Christmas on Dec. 25, like many Christians around the world. Yes, this has to do with the war, and yes, they have the blessing of their local church.

The idea of commemorating the birth of Jesus in December was considered radical in Ukraine until recently, but Russia’s invasion changed many hearts and minds.

In October, the leadership of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which is not aligned with the Russian church and one of two branches of Orthodox Christianity in the country, agreed to allow faithful to celebrate on Dec. 25.

and
Orthodox church of Ukraine allows worshippers to celebrate Christmas on 25 December | Ukraine | The Guardian

Taras Pshenychnyi, a professor of church history at Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko University, said his students had spontaneously raised the topic of Christmas and were in favour of shifting it to 25 December.

But he said older people including his parents were reluctant to change to the Gregorian model, introduced by Pope Gregory in 1582. This year his family including his six-year-old son would celebrate on both dates, he said.

In the 16th and 17th centuries some Ukrainian Uniate bishops tried to move to the Gregorian date, which Poland and other European Catholic countries had adopted. They were unsuccessful.

At the time, Ukraine was a part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. It stuck with the Julian calendar, in which New Year is celebrated on 14 January.

Between 1914 and 1916, as the first world war raged, a diocese in the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk introduced the 25 December date. The change ran into opposition from traditionalists, the intelligentsia and a powerful Russian Orthodox church.

After the Russian Revolution, the Bolsheviks moved to a Gregorian calendar for civil purposes, but the Moscow patriarchy carried on as before.

 

[barbos]

Orthodox church of Ukraine....

You need to understand the history. UkroNazi regime created this this thing in 2018 to separate itself from Russian Orthodox Church which is run from .... Moscow.
So they have 2 Orthodox churches in Ukraine now. One is traditional (Rulled from ... Moscow) and new one rulled by ukronazis (from Kiev)
It's understandable but it is what it is. Once Ukraine is fully occupied and integrated into Russia, this thing will cease to be the issue.

 

[barbos]

So, Putin has to spin a yarn that he's all for negotiating, but NATO and Ukraine are refusing. Putin doesn't have to suck up to public opinion of course, as Russia isn't a democracy, but he seems very sensitive to keeping up appearances and making sure that he is seen as a benevolent Tsar who listens to his subjects' concerns.

Dude, Putin made out of his way to avoid this conflict. But NATO and Boris from London refused.
Just before the operation Putin was asking for pretty much mere neutrality. And even after "invasion" it was still on the table. Elensky agreed, but his handlers in London and Washington had different plans.
Now, public opinion in Russia which does affect Putin a great deal wants Ukraine 100% occupied. There is no other way. Western regimes are a bunch of liars.

 

[barbos]

Putin wanted to restore the Soviet Union and his Russia is failing for the same reasons.

Putin never wanted it. CNN lied to you.

 

[Elixir]

Putin made out of his way to avoid this conflict.

Yes, he went WAY out of his way to amass over 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border, march them toward Kiev, get them shredded to pieces and start a terror campaign against the Ukrainian people, all just to avoid any conflict.
You‘d have to be a real mental midget to swallow such lame crap.

 

[Patooka]

So, Putin has to spin a yarn that he's all for negotiating, but NATO and Ukraine are refusing. Putin doesn't have to suck up to public opinion of course, as Russia isn't a democracy, but he seems very sensitive to keeping up appearances and making sure that he is seen as a benevolent Tsar who listens to his subjects' concerns.

Dude, Putin made out of his way to avoid this conflict. But NATO and Boris from London refused.
Just before the operation Putin was asking for pretty much mere neutrality. And even after "invasion" it was still on the table. Elensky agreed, but his handlers in London and Washington had different plans.
Now, public opinion in Russia which does affect Putin a great deal wants Ukraine 100% occupied. There is no other way. Western regimes are a bunch of liars.

What the fuck does any of that have to do with the Nazi zombies you are fighting? Are we going to see killer robots any time soon? Gundam suits?

 

[barbos]

Dude, Putin made out of his way to avoid this conflict. But NATO and Boris from London refused.
Just before the operation Putin was asking for pretty much mere neutrality. And even after "invasion" it was still on the table. Elensky agreed, but his handlers in London and Washington had different plans.
Now, public opinion in Russia which does affect Putin a great deal wants Ukraine 100% occupied. There is no other way. Western regimes are a bunch of liars.

What the fuck does any of that have to do with the Nazi zombies you are fighting? Are we going to see killer robots any time soon? Gundam suits?

Well, I merely reported what captured ukro-soldier said.
So yeah, apparently they use drugs from Poland, nobody knows what exactly it is.
I don't really understand why are you surprised.
German nazis invented meth in WW2. Americans were using it in Vietnam too, pilots, I believe still use it.
There is a famous story about finnish soldier during WW2 who by mistake ate all the pills which were given for the whole squadron or something. He walked 500 km or something like that after that. Red Army did not use drugs, just alcohol.

 

[Patooka]

Dude, Putin made out of his way to avoid this conflict. But NATO and Boris from London refused.
Just before the operation Putin was asking for pretty much mere neutrality. And even after "invasion" it was still on the table. Elensky agreed, but his handlers in London and Washington had different plans.
Now, public opinion in Russia which does affect Putin a great deal wants Ukraine 100% occupied. There is no other way. Western regimes are a bunch of liars.

What the fuck does any of that have to do with the Nazi zombies you are fighting? Are we going to see killer robots any time soon? Gundam suits?

Well, I merely reported what captured ukro-soldier said.
So yeah, apparently they use drugs from Poland, nobody knows what exactly it is.
I don't really understand why are you surprised.
German nazis invented meth in WW2. Americans were using it in Vietnam too, pilots, I believe still use it.
There is a famous story about finnish soldier during WW2 who by mistake ate all the pills which were given for the whole squadron or something. He walked 500 km or something like that after that. Red Army did not use drugs, just alcohol.

It's fucking adorable that you think what happened 80 years ago has some relevance or justification for your nation's war crimes.

 

[barbos]

Aimo Koivunen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

skied 400km. Still quite a result.

 

[barbos]

It's fucking adorable that you think what happened 80 years ago has some relevance or justification for your nation's war crimes.

War crimes are all yours.

 

[Rhea]

Aimo Koivunen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

skied 400km. Still quite a result.

That was an interesting story. But you’ll note that he did most of the skiing BEFORE he overdosed. The article says he had a short burst of energy then entered a dilerium and lay in a ditch. And it was the supply for a whole “patrol,” not a whole “squadron.”

So. Interesting, but not what you said and not relevant to this discussion. And my goodness what fun watching how you perceive and misinterpret the facts in print in front of you!

 

[Elixir]

It's fucking adorable that you think what happened 80 years ago has some relevance or justification for your nation's war crimes.

War crimes are all yours.

Ya talking to your Putler? The guy conducting a terror campaign against helpless civilians because his military is a ragtag bunch of incompetent conscripts?

 

[Politesse]

Orthodox church of Ukraine....

You need to understand the history. UkroNazi regime created this this thing in 2018 to separate itself from Russian Orthodox Church which is run from .... Moscow.
So they have 2 Orthodox churches in Ukraine now. One is traditional (Rulled from ... Moscow) and new one rulled by ukronazis (from Kiev)
It's understandable but it is what it is. Once Ukraine is fully occupied and integrated into Russia, this thing will cease to be the issue.

I don't suppose anyone else but me would care a great deal about the church politics involved here, but for the record, barbos is describing the formation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in very deceptive terms. It is true that the current body was formed in 2018. However, his "traditional" Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is not a "tradition" for anyone over the age of 30, as it was formed in 1990 as something of a blatant power grab by Moscow. This generated immediate controversy, and the formation of two unrecognized autocephalous branches within the two years that followed, the Ukrainian Orthodox Chruch Kyiv Patriarchate (UOC-KP) and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church (UAOC). What the ecumenical patriarch in Constantinople did in recognizing the Ukrainian Orthodox Church was giving official recognition to the two autocephalous branches, allowing their merging, and likewise allowing any Moscow Patriarchate bishops who desired to do so to join the new, unified UOC. Around 500 parishes have transferred to the new UOC from the Moscow Patriarchate, though the latter only recongizes about 60 of these transfers, so there are a large number of parishes claimed by both bodies simultaneously. Most Ukrainians never recognized the Moscow Patriarchate in the first place and those that did probably still do, so allowing unification was not a break in tradition for very many people, so much as the revival of a very old debate that was bound to erupt the second the Soviet Union faltered, and did.

There has been some sort of orthodox autocephalous church declared in Kyiv since the 10th century, and a rival body of Muscovite bishops ever since the 17th, so if anything is "traditional" in this situation, it's a generalized struggle between foreign and self-rule of religion in Ukraine, both equally disrupted by the two periods of Soviet occupation that ended all formally recognized church bodies for most of the 20th century, interrupted only by a brief occupation by the Nazis themselves.