How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

If you did, what do you think of the Patriot missile battery? The $45 billion in aid pledged?

What do I think about $1mil Patriot rocket against $4K Geranium drone you ask?

I agree with american generals who say, it's a bad idea which will have zero effect on the battlefield.

They won't be going after the cheap drones. They'll be targeting your jets and ballistic missiles.

I dunno, babs might be right if Pooty is out of jets and missiles. Maybe sending a couple million 10 gauge shotguns would be a bigger help.

 

[Harry Bosch]

And why the fuck aren’t you fighting in Ukraine?

Yea, that really bothers me. I'd like to maintain somewhat of a civil discussion with Barbos. But give me a fucking break. You cheerlead the invasion of a sovereign state. You're willing to have your neighbor's son killed in battle, but not willing to serve yourself? I'm sorry Barbos, but this war is real. People and dying and suffering tremendously. It's unfair that the cheerleaders cheering this conflict on have such little consequences affecting them.

 

[Elixir]

You cheerlead the invasion of a sovereign state.

Nitpick; he cheer-led the ‘there will be no invasion’ of a sovereign state.
Russian lies.

 

[TomC]

Honestly, Barbos still reminds me of all the Bush Administration supporters who were still cheering on the Invasion of Iraq for years. Long after it became obvious that "Democratizing the Middle East" was a huge lie to cover up a naked power grab that was going horrendously badly.
Tom

 

[Harry Bosch]

Honestly, Barbos still reminds me of all the Bush Administration supporters who were still cheering on the Invasion of Iraq for years. Long after it became obvious that "Democratizing the Middle East" was a huge lie to cover up a naked power grab that was going horrendously badly.
Tom

I don't think that comparing Ukraine to Iraq is a good comparison. I was against the Iraq invasion from day one. It was a terrible crime. And it hurt US foreign policy for a generation. However, Ukraine is far worse. Ukraine is a democracy; Iraq was a brutal dictatorship. One country is attacking Ukraine. 31 attacked Iraq (coalition of the willing!). Russia is deliberately attacking civilians; American soldiers did not (although many civilians died in Iraq). Russian soldiers are stealing everything in Ukraine that they can get their hands on. Literally. The US did not. Russia wants Ukrainian land and has taken Crimea and Donbas by force. The US did not.

Having said that, I agree with Tom that we were wrong to invade Iraq. Countries should stay the fuck out of other countries.

 

[TomC]

I don't think that comparing Ukraine to Iraq is a good comparison.

I wasn't comparing the invasions themselves so much as a the broad and staunch support given long after the lies used to drum up support were obvious.
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

Meanwhile in Russia:

Russian blogger fined for posting 'foreign agent' disclaimer in too-small font — Meduza

Russian blogger Andrey Alekseyev has been fined 10,000 rubles ($155) for posting the “foreign agent” disclaimer required by the authorities in too small a font.

meduza.io

According to Russia’s “foreign agents” law, everyone included on the registry must include a lengthy disclaimer on media they create or share, and the size of the disclaimer’s text must be twice the size of the main text. To fulfill this requirement in his social media post, Alekseyev posted the “foreign agent” disclaimer in all caps, but according to an analysis conducted by a Russian Interior Ministry forensic center, the letters were still technically less than twice the size of Alexeyev’s main text.

I read in another source that VK doesn't even allow different font sizes in posts, which would make this requirement impossible to fulfill in the platform. So every "foreign agent" there has been using caps.

This is how the regime operates of course. It's not that everyone gets a fine, it's that they single out some persons to shut everyone up.

 

[TSwizzle]

The House approved the budget. Just needs Big Joe's signature. $45 billion for Ukraine. That oughta hold them for awhile.

The “Big Guy” will sign it. BTW, is any other country

The House approved the budget. Just needs Big Joe's signature. $45 billion for Ukraine. That oughta hold them for awhile.

I’m sure the big guy will sign pretty quickly. And Zelenskyy will be back for more, $45 billion ($100+ billion and counting) just doesn’t go as far as at used to these days.

Nothing has united the American people and politicians against Russia like Putin has.

You think?

Let’s Go Brandon

 

[Harry Bosch]

The House approved the budget. Just needs Big Joe's signature. $45 billion for Ukraine. That oughta hold them for awhile.

The “Big Guy” will sign it. BTW, is any other country

The House approved the budget. Just needs Big Joe's signature. $45 billion for Ukraine. That oughta hold them for awhile.

I’m sure the big guy will sign pretty quickly. And Zelenskyy will be back for more, $45 billion ($100+ billion and counting) just doesn’t go as far as at used to these days.

Nothing has united the American people and politicians against Russia like Putin has.

You think?

Dang! I can see that Biden's actions to maintain unity against Russian imperialism, pull out of Afghanistan, lower gas prices, lower inflation and etc. is begrudgingly allowing you to compliment him as the "The Big Guy"! Go Brandon indeed!

 

[bilby]

Meanwhile in Russia:

Russian blogger fined for posting 'foreign agent' disclaimer in too-small font — Meduza

Russian blogger Andrey Alekseyev has been fined 10,000 rubles ($155) for posting the “foreign agent” disclaimer required by the authorities in too small a font.

meduza.io

According to Russia’s “foreign agents” law, everyone included on the registry must include a lengthy disclaimer on media they create or share, and the size of the disclaimer’s text must be twice the size of the main text. To fulfill this requirement in his social media post, Alekseyev posted the “foreign agent” disclaimer in all caps, but according to an analysis conducted by a Russian Interior Ministry forensic center, the letters were still technically less than twice the size of Alexeyev’s main text.

I read in another source that VK doesn't even allow different font sizes in posts, which would make this requirement impossible to fulfill in the platform. So every "foreign agent" there has been using caps.

This is how the regime operates of course. It's not that everyone gets a fine, it's that they single out some persons to shut everyone up.

That's how dictatorships have always operated. You make a sufficient tangle of laws such that literally everyone is doing something illegal, and then the dictator has a justification to arrest literally anyone he wants to.

This ensures that rather than trying to stay within the law (which isn't possible), the people try to avoid upsetting the authorities, and to avoid drawing their attention.

This in turn creates an environment in which dissenters stand out from the crowd; Acting in any way that isn't designed to avoid any hint of suspicion is itself highly suspicious, and so everyone tries their best to conform and obey, without the need for a secret policeman on every corner. The mere possibility that such a policeman might be there is sufficient.

You can't recruit enough police to actively monitor everyone. But you can persuade people to police themselves, by making punishments both exemplary and arbitrary.

 

[SLD]

You didn’t answer the question. Did you watch the speech or not. Can you even?

Why would I watch that garbage? I saw some excerpts. It was clearly written by the best neocon eggeheads, tailored to their strategy and given to that clown to read.

So Putin only allows excerpts of the speech? I wonder if any of the excerpts showed the numerous standing ovations he got from the entire chamber?

But you’re right, he is a clown, virtually a professional one at that. How does it feel to have your military to get their ass kicked by a clown?

 

[Jayjay]

The New York Times confirms what I've been saying for months (emphasis mine):

As Ukraine Prepares for a Second Year at War, the Prospect of a Stalemate Looms (Published 2022)

American officials believe that with Russia bolstering defenses and learning lessons, Ukraine will find it more challenging to retake land.

www.nytimes.com

WASHINGTON — As the war in Ukraine soon enters its second year, Ukrainian troops will find it much more challenging to reclaim territory from Russian forces who are focused on defending their remaining land gains rather than making a deeper push into the country, American officials say.

Over the course of the first 10 months of the war, the Ukrainian military has — with significant American support — outmaneuvered an incompetent Russian military, fought it to a standstill and then retaken hundreds of square miles and the only regional capital that Russia had captured.

Despite relentless Russian attacks on civilian power supplies, Ukraine has still kept up the momentum on the front lines since September. But the tide of the war is likely to change in the coming months, as Russia improves its defenses and pushes more soldiers to the front lines, making it more difficult for Ukraine to retake the huge swaths of territory it lost this year, according to U.S. government assessments.

Ukraine has also been reliant on American intelligence reports that pinpoint where the Russian Army is at its weakest. The Ukrainian military’s counteroffensive outside Kharkiv in September was successful in part because the Ukrainians were facing hollowed out, unprepared Russian forces. American officials do not believe that even the Russian military command knew how weak those forces were or how badly prepared they were for a Ukrainian strike.

American officials are continuing to search for weak points in the Russian lines, hunting for units on the brink of collapse, which might melt away in the face of a sustained push by Ukraine. Finding those fragile units could allow for smaller victories by Ukrainian troops, American officials said.

“This war favors the competent over the incompetent, as all wars do,” said Frederick W. Kagan, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who writes regularly about Russian operations in Ukraine. “The Russians have been unsuccessful because they are showing their customary incompetence.”

But American officials say there is evidence that the Kremlin is finally beginning to learn from its mistakes. It has put a single general in charge of the war — Sergei Surovikin — who American officials say is executing complicated military operations more efficiently.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian military officials have said Moscow has conducted stepped-up airstrikes on the army’s defensive lines, increasing Ukrainian casualties.

As botched as the initial Russian partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists was, the sheer numbers are now making a difference along the defensive lines. And unless those troops suffer a bad winter, which is possible with poor logistics and bad leadership, they will only shore up more by the spring, American officials said.

Russian forces are also digging into defensive positions and building trenches, and they have given up areas that require larger numbers of troops to hold, moving instead to easier-to-secure positions.

Ms. Massicot [a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation] said General Surovikin was also experimenting with new tactics for the Russian air force, including the manner with which it launches missiles at Ukraine to try to confuse its air defenses. These new Russian tactics will most likely result in a stalemate, leaving both sides jostling for the upper hand if any real negotiations were to begin.

In some ways, the war is becoming one that hinges on ammunition and supplies — two basic needs that can make or break either side.

“It increasingly is a contest between the Western industrial base and Russian industrial base, with some aid from the Iranians, North Koreans and a few other countries,” said Seth G. Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The package presented on Wednesday will include air defense batteries and precision-guided bombs for the first time. But even more weaponry for ground units will be needed to avoid a stalemate in the months to come, according to lawmakers and outside experts.

It's a war of attrition now, and that favors Russia, which has won all its wars by throwing ridiculous number of people into the meat grinder.

 

[Patooka]

It's a war of attrition now, and that favors Russia, which has won all its wars

Those wars you are referring to - they all had Russia being invaded, not the ones doing the invading.

Russia has zero chance of winning this war. Zero. That's not to say Ukraine is guaranteed to "win" but consider the following. There is little to no chance Putin is going to increase the amount of occupied territory. I'm well aware of the speculation of a second Russian major offensive in 2023 and I shudder to think whit those poor bastards will be equipped with and what training (if any) they will have. Throwing untrained bodies into defense is a desperate tactic that Russia does very well. Throwing untrained bodies into a battlefield in order to gain ground stopped being a thing at around the time of John Moses Browning. Seriously, the only person who thinks it is likely for Russia to gain more territory is barbos, and he's busy fighting imaginary nazi zombies.

So whilst it's impossible for Russia to gain more territory, it's only slightly less possible Ukraine would be satisfied with the current status quo. But let's pretend that they would. Let's pretend that tomorrow the war is over and the current lines are the new borders. Was has Russia gained from all of this? Putin has forced Finland and Sweden to apply for membership for NATO. Germany has pledged to spend as much on defense as Russia does in the annual budgets. NATO is more unified than ever as a direct result of his actions. International sanctions have crippled Russia's economy. Russia went from being perceived as the world 2nd largest military in the world to being the 2nd largest military in Ukraine (and would drop to 3rd if the Hare Krishnas emigrated on mass to Ukraine). As a result, their reputation as a preferred international arms dealer is gone. Japan is demanding islands that were stolen from them back in WWII. Putin's counter to NATO, the CTSO has been outed as a sad joke with Armenia telling Putin to go fist himself.

Simply put, Russia has zero chance of having its gains be outweighed by what it has lost in this conflict. They've already lost. And that's not including the fun occupation stage yet. I doubt things will be so passive this time around.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Ukraine cedes territory and settles its borders then it can join NATO.

 

[steve_bank]

Nobody of any consequence is going to do business in Russia. No legal stability and rule of law to protect their interest from arbitrary government action.

Russian soldiers are fighting for nothing, the flip side of WWII.

Wealthy Russians can no operate freely in the west where life is good for them.

Average Russians can no longer easily cross te border.


Putin threatened world grain supplies, I doubt that will be forgotten.

It is difficult but Europe will get off Russian energy.

Russia has had a shrinking population before the war, it will probably worsen.

Finland and Sweden are joining NATO.

In the balance the odds are on the Ukrainians. They may not get all the land back, but Russia has damaged itself inside and out.

Authoritarianism again shows itself to be far worse than any forms of western democracy. China is showing a few cracks.

 

[Harry Bosch]

If Ukraine cedes territory and settles its borders then it can join NATO.

I agree with you that if Ukraine does cede borders to Russia, that it should be allowed to join NATO to ensure that this never happens again. In a lot of ways, Russia has done the west a great favor. A lot of older NATO weapons have been spent. This is forcing NATO countries to rearm with better weapons. But it's also more cloesly aligned the west. The border countries are now on notice that an imperialist power will pounce if weakness is detected. However, this war has been brutal to the Ukranian people. We should do everything we can to ensure that they don't continue to suffer on their own.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The New York Times confirms what I've been saying for months (emphasis mine):

As Ukraine Prepares for a Second Year at War, the Prospect of a Stalemate Looms (Published 2022)

American officials believe that with Russia bolstering defenses and learning lessons, Ukraine will find it more challenging to retake land.

www.nytimes.com

WASHINGTON — As the war in Ukraine soon enters its second year, Ukrainian troops will find it much more challenging to reclaim territory from Russian forces who are focused on defending their remaining land gains rather than making a deeper push into the country, American officials say.

Over the course of the first 10 months of the war, the Ukrainian military has — with significant American support — outmaneuvered an incompetent Russian military, fought it to a standstill and then retaken hundreds of square miles and the only regional capital that Russia had captured.

Despite relentless Russian attacks on civilian power supplies, Ukraine has still kept up the momentum on the front lines since September. But the tide of the war is likely to change in the coming months, as Russia improves its defenses and pushes more soldiers to the front lines, making it more difficult for Ukraine to retake the huge swaths of territory it lost this year, according to U.S. government assessments.

Ukraine has also been reliant on American intelligence reports that pinpoint where the Russian Army is at its weakest. The Ukrainian military’s counteroffensive outside Kharkiv in September was successful in part because the Ukrainians were facing hollowed out, unprepared Russian forces. American officials do not believe that even the Russian military command knew how weak those forces were or how badly prepared they were for a Ukrainian strike.

American officials are continuing to search for weak points in the Russian lines, hunting for units on the brink of collapse, which might melt away in the face of a sustained push by Ukraine. Finding those fragile units could allow for smaller victories by Ukrainian troops, American officials said.

“This war favors the competent over the incompetent, as all wars do,” said Frederick W. Kagan, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who writes regularly about Russian operations in Ukraine. “The Russians have been unsuccessful because they are showing their customary incompetence.”

But American officials say there is evidence that the Kremlin is finally beginning to learn from its mistakes. It has put a single general in charge of the war — Sergei Surovikin — who American officials say is executing complicated military operations more efficiently.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian military officials have said Moscow has conducted stepped-up airstrikes on the army’s defensive lines, increasing Ukrainian casualties.

As botched as the initial Russian partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists was, the sheer numbers are now making a difference along the defensive lines. And unless those troops suffer a bad winter, which is possible with poor logistics and bad leadership, they will only shore up more by the spring, American officials said.

Russian forces are also digging into defensive positions and building trenches, and they have given up areas that require larger numbers of troops to hold, moving instead to easier-to-secure positions.

Ms. Massicot [a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation] said General Surovikin was also experimenting with new tactics for the Russian air force, including the manner with which it launches missiles at Ukraine to try to confuse its air defenses. These new Russian tactics will most likely result in a stalemate, leaving both sides jostling for the upper hand if any real negotiations were to begin.

In some ways, the war is becoming one that hinges on ammunition and supplies — two basic needs that can make or break either side.

“It increasingly is a contest between the Western industrial base and Russian industrial base, with some aid from the Iranians, North Koreans and a few other countries,” said Seth G. Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The package presented on Wednesday will include air defense batteries and precision-guided bombs for the first time. But even more weaponry for ground units will be needed to avoid a stalemate in the months to come, according to lawmakers and outside experts.

It's a war of attrition now, and that favors Russia, which has won all its wars by throwing ridiculous number of people into the meat grinder.

Again, greatly respect your opinion on this war. However, if Putler was winning, why does he continue to beg for negotiations?

MSN

www.msn.com

I don't think that Putler is sincere in his negotiations in the least. But I think that he's desperate to have a time to regroup, rearm, and then reattack. I think that they are on the brink of massive collapse. But maybe I'm just dreaming.....

 

[Elixir]

I think that they are on the brink of massive collapse. But maybe I'm just dreaming.....

We can make it so, if we have the resolve.

 

[SLD]

I think that they are on the brink of massive collapse. But maybe I'm just dreaming.....

We can make it so, if we have the resolve.

We could indeed Make it so. Probably cost a lot more. I don’t understand our hesitancy. A Russian defeat would be a huge national security bonus for us, and throughout the world, allowing us to spend far less for decades to come. It would reorganize the entire world, isolate China as a threat, and basically means decades without a threat to Europe - if ever again. Russia would probably benefit too. We might see a stable Democratic and peaceful country, like Germany after WWII. Perhaps both Russia and Ukraine would then join NATO. Maybe I’m pipe dreaming.

 

[Politesse]

Nobody of any consequence is going to do business in Russia. No legal stability and rule of law to protect their interest from arbitrary government action.

Russian soldiers are fighting for nothing, the flip side of WWII.

Wealthy Russians can no operate freely in the west where life is good for them.

Average Russians can no longer easily cross te border.


Putin threatened world grain supplies, I doubt that will be forgotten.

It is difficult but Europe will get off Russian energy.

Russia has had a shrinking population before the war, it will probably worsen.

Finland and Sweden are joining NATO.

In the balance the odds are on the Ukrainians. They may not get all the land back, but Russia has damaged itself inside and out.

Authoritarianism again shows itself to be far worse than any forms of western democracy. China is showing a few cracks.

An optimistic read. Ukraine is not going to recover from this pointless war very quickly, if at all.