How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

The only failure here is Russians inability to crush

Tell that poor ukrainian bastards.

You mean the ones who are fighting and dying for their homes and families against a marauding invader?

No, these have been dead for more than a year. I meant the ones who were caught on the streets and sent to die for nothing.
I mean for Biden to look "good", if you can call it "good".
Russian Army has no problem recruiting. Plenty of people are signing on voluntarily, and why not? Russia is winning and salary is almost equal to that of senior level programmer.

 

[Elixir]

If Europe were to move to defend their own territory, then I would support my country giving them military assistance. If they were to cut off Putin's balls and staple them to his forehead, then I would not say anything about it.

You are a victim of anti-russian propaganda.

Thats right. A person informed of actual facts would know Putin has no balls.
He’s just like Trump; a wannabe “great man” who is actually a sniveling coward.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russian Army has no problem recruiting.

Conscription is not recruiting.

Plenty of people are signing on voluntarily, and why not? Russia is winning and salary is almost equal to that of senior level programmer.

 

[bilby]

In truth Ukranians are dying because

of evil murderous regime in Washington.

Just not in ANY way that you can demonstrate

So you are saying that US did murder democratically elected prime minister of Congo?

As a rule, any post that starts "So you are saying...", will continue with something that the person being addressed isn't, in fact, saying at all.

But usually at least some attempt is made to connect the strawman claim to the things actually said, or at least implied, by that person.

This post should win some kind of an award for most irrelevant non-sequitur on the Internet.

 

[Jayjay]

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Russia has used cluster munitions since the beginning

Russia did not use cluster munitions in the beginning. Ukraine did.

It's a fact that Russia used cluster munitions against civilians at least, see the report a linked earlier. Why wouldn't they use them in the battlefield also?

Ukraine also had cluster munitions, both from their own stock and from e.g. Turkey, but they ran out of them. Russia probably continued to use them when it was most effective. Also, Russia had more conventional ammo, as well as other means like white phosphorus (which technically is a type of cluster munition though) that does a similar job.

 

[Jayjay]

The narrowing of the gap is not due to Ukraine having more ammo and cluster bombs, but Russia having less of it. In the early phases of the war, Russia could spend 20-40k artillery rounds per day. Now it's down to maybe 4-5k according to an estimate I've seen. And this is due to Ukraine being able to effectively hit Russian logistics and ammo dumps... but the catch is that they have to continue to do so throughout the war.

That's western propaganda and lies. Nazis did hit few amo dumps in the spring, but then russians simply spread that shit over larger territories and hitting it became pointless.

Well duh. Of course they had to distribute the ammo dumps, and place the bigger ones farther away from the front.

But that comes with a cost of less efficient logistics, which is one of the reasons for the shell hunger. And smaller dumps that are within reach are still being hit, the only difference is scale. But this is typical of introduction of any new weapon... at first, there's no counter, so the results are more pronounced, then when the enemy adjusts and adapts they become less efficient. Himars for example isn't as effective as it used to be because Russia is using GPS jamming more widely.

When Storm Shadows appeared, Ukraine briefly could hit places that were previously thought "safe", so they had a similar brief period where Russia scrambled to take their wares even farther and had to think about air defense inside Crimea.

 

[Jayjay]

Even that article says that they could be delivered "in nine months". The article is from February so that means November, earliest. Possibly later. This is a completely new, untested weapon system, and I fail to see what capabilities it can bring that Ukraine already doesn't have with Storm Shadow.

Storm Shadows are about to become useless. Russian strategic bombers are finally working on remaining Nazi LuftWaffe (needed to launch Storm Shadows)

Funny how the attacks on the two bridges came after Russia's missile barrage on the air fields. But then again, according to Russian propaganda, the Ukrainian air force was completely eradicated already in early 2022.

Every weapon system becomes less useful as the enemy adapts (like the Russian biweekly missile attacks, of which only a small fraction actually hit their targets anymore), but that doesn't make them useless. Even if Russia can shoot down 9 out of 10 cruise missiles, the one that they don't still does some damage, and at the very least ties up air defence resources that could be used elsewhere.

Criminal regime in Washington is throwing everything in the hope to last until elections.

No, they're not throwing everything. ATACMS for example has not been given. Nor extended range Himars missiles. Or advanced drones. But these are probably not given because they're perceived to be less effective, and because the US wants to keep some weapon systems stashed away so that their capabilities remain secret.

Franlky I think it's hopeless. There is no way it can last that long.

Even with current level of weapons deliveries, Ukraine can drag this out for years. The front line has stabilized to the point that neither side can make any gains apart from few tactical victories.

 

[Jayjay]

So how is Putin's plan to rebuild the Soviet Union going? ... maybe not so popular with some people.. (probably needs better PR, yea that will do it)

Ukraine Replaces Soviet-era Hammer & Sickle On Motherland Monument

The monument, a 62-metre tall (200ft) steel statue of a female warrior overlooks Kyiv.

crooksandliars.com

I'm thinking that maybe Ukraine is doing this so openly to draw fire on the statue instead of other targets.

 

[Jayjay]

In truth Ukranians are dying because

of evil murderous regime in Washington.

Just not in ANY way that you can demonstrate.

So you are saying that US did murder democratically elected prime minister of Congo?

What a bizarre train of thought. Are you saying Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine because the "evil murderous regime in Washington" allegedly murdered the prime minister of Congo?

Are you sure you don't want to throw Victoria Nuland and the lizard people in to the mix also?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

In truth Ukranians are dying because

of evil murderous regime in Washington.

Just not in ANY way that you can demonstrate

So you are saying that US did murder democratically elected prime minister of Congo?

As a rule, any post that starts "So you are saying...", will continue with something that the person being addressed isn't, in fact, saying at all.

But usually at least some attempt is made to connect the strawman claim to the things actually said, or at least implied, by that person.

This post should win some kind of an award for most irrelevant non-sequitur on the Internet.

Dzhokhar Musayevich Dudayev. First president of post Soviet Chechnya. Assassinated by the Russian military. Wanna play this game Barbos? Yes, the U.S. did some unsavory things in the past. Reagan's support for dirty wars in Nicarugua, El Salvador and Argentina come to mind. But past and present Russian atrocities are not excused by that. Killing civilians with rockets today cannot be excused by whataboutism.

 

[Jayjay]

Pootie surrounded himself with stupid yes men who assured him Ukrainians would welcome Russian invaders as liberators. They didn't

The did, they totally did. Current fascist regime in Ukraine is based on terror.
And piece of shit Biden surrounded himself by imbeciles who convinced him that Russia will fall from .... sanctions.

Nobody thinks the sanctions will cause Russia to fall. The purpose is to limit Russia's ability to wage war in the long run.

Problem with sanctions is that dictators like Putin don't care about how their people are doing, they care about their own prestige. It's actually the threat of sanctions that may cause them to think twice. In case of Ukraine, Putin thought the west was weak and wouldn't do anything. If he had known the extent of the sanctions and what a clusterfuck the war would become, he wouldn't have invaded. It's partially the US and Europe's fault for not being able to make this clear from the outset... which is probably because they didn't even know how far they'd go themselves.

 

[Jayjay]

That is now useless to Russia thanks to Ukranian drones and missiles.

NATO fascists launched 12 ($1mil each) missiles to hit two bridges. Only 3 reached it.
Again these are air launched missiles. What these degerates achieved is that all runaways will soon be destroyed by cheap russian drones.
Eventually Ukraine will become Russia again, Non Black Sea NATO countries will lose all millitary access to Black Sea. That's assuming NATO still exists. Baltic states will finally shut the fuck up, or else, they will become Russia Again.

Five stages of grief:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

You seem to be between steps 1 and 2.

NATO is expanding, Russia failed to take Odessa, and the Black Sea fleet is cowering in fear of a few exploding speed boats.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Nazi! Nazi! Nazi! That lie is pretty much worn out.

....
Russian Nazis, part 2

In today's #vatniksoup I'll talk about Russian Nazis and introduce Russian neo-Nazi movements and paramilitary groups like Rusich and PMC Wagner. They're best-known for being funded by the Kremlin and being responsible for the "denazification" in Ukraine.
....

Russian Nazis, part 2 | Vatnik Soup

In today's #vatniksoup I'll talk about Russian Nazis and introduce Russian neo-Nazi movements and paramilitary groups like Rusich and PMC Wagner. They're best-known for being funded by the Kremlin and being responsible for the "denazification" in Ukraine.1/24

vatniksoup.com

 

[TomC]

It's partially the US and Europe's fault for not being able to make this clear from the outset... which is probably because they didn't even know how far they'd go themselves.

I certainly can't speak for Europe. But I'm confident that Putin supported Trump to weaken U.S. resolve concerning Russian aggression. And it worked.

When Putin's useful U.S. idiot lost power, he just went ahead and invaded Ukraine. Trump had already weakened and divided the U.S., NATO, and everything else that stood in Putin's way. As best as Trump could.

Now, it's not going so well.
The week long "liberation" is way into the second year. And going nowhere.
Russia is being propped up by allies like China, India, and Iran.
The U.S. government has burned so many bridges with Iran we haven't any leverage there any more. China and India are somewhat different.

Pull the plug on them doing business in the USA and we'd be doing more good for Ukrainians than yet another batch of high tech weapons. Do both...
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

Nazi! Nazi! Nazi! That lie is pretty much worn out.

Barbos is throwing around the derogative "nazi" just like some people use "orcs" to refer to Russians.

Just like J.R.R. Tolkien's orcs, the "nazis" in Ukraine are by and large imaginary creatures that don't exist anywhere except in the fantastic world of Russian propaganda.

 

[Jayjay]

It's partially the US and Europe's fault for not being able to make this clear from the outset... which is probably because they didn't even know how far they'd go themselves.

I certainly can't speak for Europe. But I'm confident that Putin supported Trump to weaken U.S. resolve concerning Russian aggression. And it worked.

When Putin's useful U.S. idiot lost power, he just went ahead and invaded Ukraine. Trump had already weakened and divided the U.S., NATO, and everything else that stood in Putin's way. As best as Trump could.

Now, it's not going so well.
The week long "liberation" is way into the second year. And going nowhere.
Russia is being propped up by allies like China, India, and Iran.
The U.S. government has burned so many bridges with Iran we haven't any leverage there any more. China and India are somewhat different.

Pull the plug on them doing business in the USA and we'd be doing more good for Ukrainians than yet another batch of high tech weapons. Do both...
Tom

China and India are too big to sanction.

India is still on the fence. It'd be better to get them on "our side" if possible, and sanctions and threats aren't the way to do it. There is a very real risk that India will slip into an autocratic rule.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Putin’s popularity has soared despite the failures he’s induced.

Could have a lot to do with the fact that dissenters are poisoned, arrested, imprisoned and tend to fall out windows. Honestly, Putin is gangster scum. He is only "popular" because if you don't approve of him you end up working in a salt mine if you're lucky. If you're not lucky you end up dead. So his "popularity" is easy to explain.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Nazi! Nazi! Nazi! That lie is pretty much worn out.

Barbos is throwing around the derogative "nazi" just like some people use "orcs" to refer to Russians.

Just like J.R.R. Tolkien's orcs, the "nazis" in Ukraine are by and large imaginary creatures that don't exist anywhere except in the fantastic world of Russian propaganda.

Google Russian Nazis.

 

[Copernicus]

Problem with sanctions is that dictators like Putin don't care about how their people are doing, they care about their own prestige. It's actually the threat of sanctions that may cause them to think twice. In case of Ukraine, Putin thought the west was weak and wouldn't do anything. If he had known the extent of the sanctions and what a clusterfuck the war would become, he wouldn't have invaded. It's partially the US and Europe's fault for not being able to make this clear from the outset... which is probably because they didn't even know how far they'd go themselves.

Actually, Biden sent that message repeatedly, loudly, and clearly. The Europeans were perhaps a little more reticent, but Putin was defiant. He had bragged that it would take 3 days to overrun Ukraine. What did him in was his own reckless bravado, ego, and ignorance of what it would take to occupy such a huge country. He didn't understand the true state or preparedness of his military and had never commanded any troops in battle. Everybody was praising him for playing 3D chess. He was a genius who couldn't lose. It didn't matter what the Americans or Europeans said. He was going to show them where they could stick their warnings. I think he finally started to get the message when they impounded all those super yachts. I think he managed to save his, but I don't recall. It was going to be refurbished in Germany, I believe.

 

[Tigers!]

Pootie surrounded himself with stupid yes men who assured him Ukrainians would welcome Russian invaders as liberators. They didn't

The did, they totally did. Current fascist regime in Ukraine is based on terror.
And piece of shit Biden surrounded himself by imbeciles who convinced him that Russia will fall from .... sanctions.

Nobody thinks the sanctions will cause Russia to fall. The purpose is to limit Russia's ability to wage war in the long run.

Problem with sanctions is that dictators like Putin don't care about how their people are doing, they care about their own prestige. It's actually the threat of sanctions that may cause them to think twice. In case of Ukraine, Putin thought the west was weak and wouldn't do anything. If he had known the extent of the sanctions and what a clusterfuck the war would become, he wouldn't have invaded. It's partially the US and Europe's fault for not being able to make this clear from the outset... which is probably because they didn't even know how far they'd go themselves.

I am glad that the West is finally where it is now concerning Russia. 2014 would have been a better time to be where we are now.