How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

Your best missiles failed to take out rockets that are more than 20 years old. You got some which is what I would expect. And your lesser SAMs were apparently completely unable to hit them. ATACMS has nothing but speed and altitude to get through--basically, the Russian approach. Storm Shadow aka SCALP is more along the US approach--low and subsonic, but hard to see (especially if it can weave through terrain) and hard to hit.

You are talking complete nonsense. Russian air defence is about 90% effective against ATACMS.
You are only able to reliably hit places which are not covered by Air Defence like beaches, murdering 2 year old babies.

You are talking utter nonsense.

If they actually were 90% effective we would not see what we do see. Even if that 90% number is true it's the overall system effectiveness, not the effectiveness of the missiles. Since the launcher got hit that was down the throat, the easiest possible intercept and one in which you get multiple engagement cycles. 90% overall, if you get two cycles that means the missiles are 70% effective. Three cycles, that translates to 55% effective. You know enough math to figure this out.

And not even Russia agrees with you on what happened on that beach. That missile wasn't aimed at the beach, but rather you got a partial kill. It could no longer steer but the boom part still went boom. This is a standard problem with shooting down ballistic inbounds--unless you obliterate it with a direct hit you can not realistically tell if it's dead or not. And killing the controls doesn't mean the warhead is dead. We got our lesson in it in Desert Storm (Patriots failing to take out Scud warheads on "successful" intercepts) which is why we have gone to kinetic kill for extreme altitude intercepts.

And note that your S-500 battery should have been able to cover the whole area. Said beach was within the defense zone.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Are you saying it didn't happen?
Or are you saying that Putin's apparently genocidal behavior in Ukraine isn't real?
Or are you saying that if they give up he will quit his attempts at genocide?

"Some historians conclude that the famine was deliberately engineered by Joseph Stalin to eliminate a Ukrainian independence movement. Others suggest that the famine was primarily the consequence of rapid Soviet industrialisation and collectivization of agriculture. A middle position, held for example by historian Andrea Graziosi, is that the initial causes of the famine were an unintentional byproduct of the process of collectivization but once it set in, starvation was selectively weaponized and the famine was "instrumentalized" and amplified against Ukrainians to punish them for their rejection of the "new serfdom" and to break their nationalism."

Holodomor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I do not think Putin cares about Ukrainian loss of life. His aim is to punish Ukraine for siding with West and bring NATO in. He is subscribed to that and will not quit. That is why he has met Xi and Kim Jong.

And that's supposed to be a rebuttal???

 

[Elixir]

Unfortunately, the war is not making Russia go back.

Just wait.
If Trump gets his corrupt hands on the whitehouse Putin will have Ukraine, no question. He will likely continue to murder and plunder Ukraine, until the last possible voice of protest or opposition is silenced.
If he doesn’t, and Biden wins, Putin will suddenly become the embassy for peace that you think he is.

 

[DrZoidberg]

What Russian concerns? Russia is 100% of the problem. If we didn't Ukraine would have lost already. So you're clearly wrong. Forced? Who's forcing them?

You are welcome to your (one-sided) views.
NATO and its acolytes. Some one gave a long list of countries which are supplying arms to Ukraine, and and even longer list of what arms they are supplying.

Your views

Are you saying it didn't happen?
Or are you saying that Putin's apparently genocidal behavior in Ukraine isn't real?
Or are you saying that if they give up he will quit his attempts at genocide?

"Some historians conclude that the famine was deliberately engineered by Joseph Stalin to eliminate a Ukrainian independence movement. Others suggest that the famine was primarily the consequence of rapid Soviet industrialisation and collectivization of agriculture. A middle position, held for example by historian Andrea Graziosi, is that the initial causes of the famine were an unintentional byproduct of the process of collectivization but once it set in, starvation was selectively weaponized and the famine was "instrumentalized" and amplified against Ukrainians to punish them for their rejection of the "new serfdom" and to break their nationalism."

Holodomor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I do not think Putin cares about Ukrainian loss of life. His aim is to punish Ukraine for siding with West and bring NATO in. He is subscribed to that and will not quit. That is why he has met Xi and Kim Jong.

And that's supposed to be a rebuttal???

Stalin didn’t mean it. It was all a misunderstanding. Stalin, deep down, really meant well.

 

[Elixir]

If I were a wise Ukrainian, I would talk rather than keep on fighting with Russia.

If you were a Ukrainian and tried that, you’d be a dead Ukrainian, that’s all.

 

[Elixir]

I don't understand your logic. How did NATO's expansionism lead to the war in Ukraine? Its a defensive pact. How does the destruction in Ukraine benefit NATO?

You are not alone. Discomfiting of an enemy is a win. That Russia has to fight a war is a win for NATO, regardless of what happens to Ukraine.

Not at all.
A win for NATO would be Ukraine keeping the territory it was promised by treaty - you know, when they were TALKING!!

 

[Patooka]

.. and therefore initiating article 5. They could have done the same for the numerous cyber attacks in Europe that explicitly came from Russia. Article 7 of the NATO accords states very clearly the supremacy of UN resolutions so Putin blockading Ukrainian grain could have also been a legitimate reason. That NATO has done none of this is proof that they are not the aggressor ..

If it is in their Charter then why they are not replying to S-300 falling in Poland? The reason is that they do not want to fight Russia themselves but want Ukraine to fight their war. Disgusting.

That is complete horseshit. If you fantasy were even remotely accurate, no one would have placed restrictions on Ukraine regarding where they could attack Russian forces. There is only one side of this conflict that is acting with unprovoked aggression and it's the side you keep apologising for.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia warns it can respond to US drone flights over Black Sea

Russia’s Defense Ministry says officials have been ordered to prepare a response to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft

abcnews.go.com

US operating in international airspace over international waters. Russia thinks it can start a war and then dictate the terms of that war.

The RQ-4 Global Hawks can stay aloft for 30 hours at an altitude of 20km and take a pic of something 30cm in diameter. It has wide area search and spot mode. The radar is capable of providing moving target indication, sending position and velocity via text message.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russia warns it can respond to US drone flights over Black Sea

Russia’s Defense Ministry says officials have been ordered to prepare a response to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft

abcnews.go.com

US operating in international airspace over international waters. Russia thinks it can start a war and then dictate the terms of that war.

The RQ-4 Global Hawks can stay aloft for 30 hours at an altitude of 20km and take a pic of something 30cm in diameter. It has wide area search and spot mode. The radar is capable of providing moving target indication, sending position and velocity via text message.

Yea the Black Sea is international waters. Russia dosn’t own it!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia warns it can respond to US drone flights over Black Sea

Russia’s Defense Ministry says officials have been ordered to prepare a response to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft

abcnews.go.com

US operating in international airspace over international waters. Russia thinks it can start a war and then dictate the terms of that war.

The RQ-4 Global Hawks can stay aloft for 30 hours at an altitude of 20km and take a pic of something 30cm in diameter. It has wide area search and spot mode. The radar is capable of providing moving target indication, sending position and velocity via text message.

More Ruski bullshit. This is KGP SOP. Make tons of threats but never actually act on those threats. It's psychological warfare. If those Ruski fucktards ever really do something stupid just respond in kind. That's all they really understand.

 

[bilby]

If I were a wise Ukrainian, I would talk rather than keep on fighting with Russia.

If you were a Ukrainian and tried that, you’d be a dead Ukrainian, that’s all.

Plenty of Russians have tried talking with Putin about his conduct vis-a-vis Ukraine.

So far, none are known to have survived the experience. There are just too many buildings in Moscow with high windows.

If raising concerns is dangerous for Russians, it's surely too dangerous for any Ukrainian.

 

[barbos]

Your best missiles failed to take out rockets that are more than 20 years old. You got some which is what I would expect. And your lesser SAMs were apparently completely unable to hit them. ATACMS has nothing but speed and altitude to get through--basically, the Russian approach. Storm Shadow aka SCALP is more along the US approach--low and subsonic, but hard to see (especially if it can weave through terrain) and hard to hit.

You are talking complete nonsense. Russian air defence is about 90% effective against ATACMS.
You are only able to reliably hit places which are not covered by Air Defence like beaches, murdering 2 year old babies.

You are talking utter nonsense.

If they actually were 90% effective we would not see what we do see.

You don't see it because you are not being shown it or refuse to see it. Regime in Kiev regularly sends salvos of about 10 ATACMS and more often than not they are all being shot down. Sometimes one out of ten gets through and it gets reported in your news as a great success

Even if that 90% number is true it's the overall system effectiveness, not the effectiveness of the missiles. Since the launcher got hit that was down the throat, the easiest possible intercept and one in which you get multiple engagement cycles. 90% overall, if you get two cycles that means the missiles are 70% effective. Three cycles, that translates to 55% effective. You know enough math to figure this out.

And not even Russia agrees with you on what happened on that beach. That missile wasn't aimed at the beach, but rather you got a partial kill.

That's being discussed, some say it was intentional. And even if it is true then you are still responsible for that because you (US) are planning these attacks over populated areas.

It could no longer steer but the boom part still went boom. This is a standard problem with shooting down ballistic inbounds--unless you obliterate it with a direct hit you can not realistically tell if it's dead or not. And killing the controls doesn't mean the warhead is dead. We got our lesson in it in Desert Storm (Patriots failing to take out Scud warheads on "successful" intercepts) which is why we have gone to kinetic kill for extreme altitude intercepts.

And note that your S-500 battery should have been able to cover the whole area. Said beach was within the defense zone.

Patriot was supposed to cover a lot too, Now your nazis are being bombed by 3000kg bombs. And there is nothing your Patriot can do.

 

[barbos]

Russia warns it can respond to US drone flights over Black Sea

Russia’s Defense Ministry says officials have been ordered to prepare a response to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft

abcnews.go.com

US operating in international airspace over international waters. Russia thinks it can start a war and then dictate the terms of that war.

The RQ-4 Global Hawks can stay aloft for 30 hours at an altitude of 20km and take a pic of something 30cm in diameter. It has wide area search and spot mode. The radar is capable of providing moving target indication, sending position and velocity via text message.

More Ruski bullshit. This is KGP SOP. Make tons of threats but never actually act on those threats. It's psychological warfare. If those Ruski fucktards ever really do something stupid just respond in kind. That's all they really understand.

What exactly is BS there?

I personaly think that UAV should be shot down. OR alternatively Russia should start harassing Florida with our own UAVs.
But I think high altitude UAV is not ready yet.

 

[barbos]

So your country wants to further secure your borders to prevent a possible future attack. But you don’t believe that Ukraine should do the same? Why?

Because that's not what Ukraine is doing. They are inviting American nukes to make Security of Russia significantly worse.
Furthermore, regime in Ukraine lost all their supposed legitimacy when they started ukrainization of Russian population.

Ukraine must forget about NATO, stop ukrainization, denazify itself, agree on the loss of Eastern Ukraine, became fully 100% neutral and then and only then they will have a chance of saving what's left.

 

[zorq]

So your country wants to further secure your borders to prevent a possible future attack. But you don’t believe that Ukraine should do the same? Why?

Because that's not what Ukraine is doing. They are inviting American nukes to make Security of Russia significantly worse.

You don't understand anything. Guess what? Nukes can reach any part of Russia right now. Anytime of day or night. Anywhere. If there are nukes in Ukraine, or no nukes in Ukraine, it makes no difference. Russia can be completely destroyed at any moment right fucking now. An unfriendly Ukraine next to Russia doesn't affect Russia's safety at all.

Do you know what might significantly help Russia's safety? If Putin really cared about Russian safety he would stop making its neighbors into enemies. Asshole Putin is what brings danger to Russia. So why don't you do what you suggested earlier and overthrow Putin. You can do it! It will make Russia drastically safer!

Furthermore, regime in Ukraine lost all their supposed legitimacy when they started ukrainization of Russian population.

A country encouraging their citizens to use certain languages is a completely normal thing to do. It happens all the time. Lots of countries have "official languages." This does not factor into the "legitimacy" of a country.

And guess what? If certain citizens in those countries don't like those language policies, they are free to move to another country (unless it's a shithole country like Putin's pals in N. Korea). Also, if they live in a free society they can petition their leaders to change those policies. I don't expect YOU to understand this as you don't live in anything remotely resembling a free society.

As I recall, Russia has for a long period of time offered free passports to Russian speaking Ukranians who want to immigrate. So This is one of your most feeble excuses for this shitshow war Russia started. Russian speaking Ukranians didn't like learning Ukranian? They could have easily moved to Russia! This is no fucking excuse for Russia to sneak in and murder people!

I swear you have no moral compass at all.

But of course this was was never about Ukraine's language policies or NAZIs. It has always been about stealing land that doesn't belong to Russia. We all know because actions speak louder than words.

Ukraine must forget about NATO, stop ukrainization, denazify itself, agree on the loss of Eastern Ukraine, became fully 100% neutral and then and only then they will have a chance of saving what's left.

If they do that then they will really have nothing left because Putin will invade again the day after all that is completed. And Russian scum will murder their young men and rape their women. Your duplicitous nature betrays you.

 

[aupmanyav]

Reality.

I already understand reality to the extent it is possible today. I cannot answer the question 'Why things exist at all?', though I have my views about it.

 

[aupmanyav]

You completely fail to understand that Ukraine's relations with the west are not Russia's business.

If that was so, why did US object to Russia placing missiles in Cuba?

 

[aupmanyav]

Russia remained a threat even though most people liked to pretend otherwise.

Why were some people taking Russia as a threat. It was under great economic stress. Why people should not be afraid of US which has a larger stock-pile of bombs than Russia and better missile and aircraft technology?

Russia remained a threat even though most people liked to pretend otherwise.

Why were some people taking Russia as a threat? It was under great economic stress. Why people should not be afraid of US which has a larger stock-pile of bombs than Russia and better missile and aircraft technology?

 

[aupmanyav]

So your country wants to further secure your borders to prevent a possible future attack. But you don’t believe that Ukraine should do the same? Why?

Ukraine was not under any threat till 2014. Relations with other nations are a delicate thing. While tilting to one side, a country may disturb the balance on the other side.

And that's supposed to be a rebuttal???

What rebuttal do I have to offer? I am stating the views expressed by people who are knowledgeable in the field as mentioned in Wikipedia.

 

[aupmanyav]

We don't like our role as policeman. It's just we like a world without a policeman even less than we like being that policeman.

Then encourage Ukraine to talk rather than arming it.