How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Henry-Finland]

Putin's Position Increasingly Precarious​

Putin came to power 25 years ago today, CSTO will do nothing, Belarus threatening Ukraine deploying Iskander missiles, Petraeus on the war, Update on Kursk




[Sarcasm warning!] The new borders of Ukraine.

Link to the Kyiv Post article with Petraeus: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37119

 

[Henry-Finland]

If you are interested in seeing how German and French media see the Russian war (in English), I recommend:

DW News: https://www.youtube.com/@dwnews
and
France 24: https://www.france24.com/en/tag/ukraine/

Here is a video from DW News about Kursk:


[DW stands for Deutsche Welle]

 

[ZiprHead]

Washington has given a green light to this - when UA asked about it AFTERWARDS.
What else could Washington have said without looking as chickening?

Better to ask for forgiveness than ask for permission.

 

[Henry-Finland]

2024-08-10​

Battle of Kursk Hastens Putin's Downfall - The Name 'Kursk' is Putin's Avenging Nemesis​

2024-08-10 | The Battle of Kursk hastens the downfall of Putin's murderous regime. In a historical irony the name 'Kursk' bookends failure at the start of his time in office, and may signal it's end in catastrophic failure. Is Kursk Putin's avenging nemesis?
----------

Is it accurate to say Ukraine has ‘invaded’ Russia? Imposing that language on the situation may be premature and depend very much on what happens next. In the unlikely event that Ukrainian troops charge up to Moscow, Prigozhin style, then the phrase may be apt.
But if the present action turns into a smart maneuver to ‘go around’ Russian fortifications on the Eastern and southern fronts, then it could be seen as simply an extension of the active front that winds its way across many hundreds of kilometres of Ukrainian territory, of which around a thousand kilometres is experiencing active combat at any given time.

We seem immune to the shock of seeing a vast conventional war unfold on Ukraine’s territory, as if that were somehow normal and natural. But shocked that the same should be meted out to the aggressor army on Russian territory. In traditional warfare, that makes no sense, as whether formally declared or not, Russia has mounted an act of aggression against Ukraine, on a scale not seen since WWII.

In other words, a war for territorial acquisition and regime change, which also has the characteristics of a genocidal campaign. The UN charter is clear and explicit that Ukraine has the right of self-defence as the victim of this aggression, and whose sovereign territories have been violated. The UN Charter states: Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.

 

[TomC]

Washington has given a green light to this - when UA asked about it AFTERWARDS.
What else could Washington have said without looking as chickening?

Better to ask for forgiveness than ask for permission.

Unspoken lesson:
Keep winning and NATO will have your back.
(Even if it is an election year in the USA)

Go Ukraine!
Tom

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

These propaganda believers do not understand that Putin and the rest of his fascist gang are not interested in what happens to people - Russian or Ukrainian. Neither do they - not before the war comes to their villages.

They're living off Adolph's crumbs, playing the hand they've been dealt. It's sad.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Kremlin clamps down a little harder. If the rest of Russia is as enamored with YouTube as much as Barbos is, this has got to sting.

Russians are also increasingly reporting severe speed throttling and an inability to access YouTube following recent acknowledgments that the Russian government is throttling YouTube's speeds, likely to push Russians to use deanonymized, Kremlin-controlled social media sites that the Kremlin can more easily exert influence.

 

[Copernicus]

Personally, I don't see any way that the new incursion will weaken Putin or lead to a quick resolution. If Ukraine can establish a lasting perimeter, they would have leverage at the bargaining table, but Russia will inevitably prevail in a war of attrition. Putin's chokehold on power has no organized opposition. Maybe a military coup would succeed, but the new regime would likely be as oppressive as the current one and resistant to leaving Ukrainian territory. They would need something in exchange for all the lives sacrificed for this stupid invasion of Ukrainian territory.

 

[aupmanyav]

Those two things are not alike.

That is your take.

 

[steve_bank]

I think the Ukraine incursion will have an effect.

At the start of the war I watched a clip of Putin listening to someone give a report. Thepersonn was on the order of our head of the FBI, high level intelligence.

Putin was siting at a large desk on a raised platform high enough to be looking down on the speaker's head.

From a translator the speaker said something Putin did not want to hear. Putin glared and ranted. The speaker was viably shaken, and then said what Putin wanted to hear.

The Ukraine incursion will ripple through the military command. IMO officers will walk on egg shells tippy toeing around Putin. Officers and intelligence will be more afraid of speaking inconvenient facts.

 

[Elixir]

Those two things are not alike.

That is your take.

To a blind person all things look alike.

 

[aupmanyav]

There was no NATO expansionism prior to 2014

NATO was always there. NATO is the villain of the piece.
In 1990, several Western leaders gave assurances to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand further east, as revealed by memoranda of private conversations.
During the breakup of Yugoslavia, the organization conducted its first military interventions in Bosnia from 1992 to 1995 and later Yugoslavia in 1999.
At the 1999 Washington summit, Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic officially joined NATO.

 

[aupmanyav]

And NATO has not done violence in pursuit of either.

You forget Yugoslavia. The breakup was orchestrated by NATO.

 

[steve_bank]

And NATO has not done violence in pursuit of either.

You forget Yugoslavia. The breakup was orchestrated by NATO.

The fact that there has not been a destructive war in Europe since WWII is remarkable. Thank NATO for that.

India has contributed little to world security and enabling free trade on the oceans yet benefits from it.

Without NATO, Europe political and economic stability, and freedom of navigation on the oceans India would not have advanced.

China is threatening freedom of navigation on important sea and air trade routes by declaring the South China Sea Chinese territory.

NATO and others transit the disputed waters to counter China.

 

[aupmanyav]

You understand that what you so adorably call "NATO aggression" is countries with sovereign borders knowingly and willingly joining NATO because of illegal Russian aggression, right?

Right? You can check the dates if you want. I'll even give you a hint - how many countries wanted to join NATO after Russia invaded Chechnya not once but twice?

You mean Russia should have allowed Chechnya to secede? Would you mind if Texas were to secede from US or Quebec from Canada?
If they knowingly and willingly join NATO, then Russia would consider them to belong to the enemy group. That may have consequences later.

 

[aupmanyav]

To a blind person all things look alike.

Wrong analogy. Blind persons would not be able to look.

 

[aupmanyav]

The fact that there has not been a destructive war in Europe since WWII is remarkable. Thank NATO for that.

India has contributed little to world security and enabling free trade on the oceans yet benefits from it.

Without NATO, Europe political and economic stability, and freedom of navigation on the oceans India would not have advanced.

China is threatening freedom of navigation on important sea and air trade routes by declaring the South China Sea Chinese territory.

NATO and others transit the disputed waters to counter China.

You mean none that affected the US? Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya or Ukraine.
India is a third world country. We have many limitations.
Freedom of navigation is accepted by all except China. Do we need to thank NATO or US for it?
China and not Russia is now the main ompetitor of US.
India is going to be a distant third after China and US by the time Modi's third tenure ends in 2029 overtaking Japan and Germany.

"As such, China's GDP of ¥95.5 trillion would be worth $27.3 trillion in the United States (¥74.6/3.5). That's $5.9 trillion, or nearly 28 percent, more than the US GDP of $21.4 trillion in 2019."

The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States - knoema.com

Which is the world's largest economy, China or the United States? As is usual in the field of economics, “It depends.” It depends on the methods used to estimate the size of an economy and to compare one economy to another. Despite modern discussions on refining the calculation of gross domestic...

knoema.com

 

[Henry-Finland]

Space X will be taking us back to the Moon and on to Mars, where is Russia?

You completely missed the point.

My point is the west is going back to Moon and Mars, and Russia is still in a backwards antiquated militarism dragging Russia down.

Your space program is on par with your incompetent military.

As asked can you elaborate on what you mean by democracy, and what do you consider a good political system? Is Russia a good and just political system?

I am also interested in what barbos would answer to this Steve Bank's question:

"As asked can you elaborate on what you mean by democracy, and what do you consider a good political system? Is Russia a good and just political system?"

 

[Henry-Finland]

Washington has given a green light to this - when UA asked about it AFTERWARDS.
What else could Washington have said without looking as chickening?

Better to ask for forgiveness than ask for permission.

Unspoken lesson:
Keep winning and NATO will have your back.
(Even if it is an election year in the USA)

Go Ukraine!
Tom

It will be very interesting to see what the next US president will say about the use of ATTACMS etc. after the election?
It is a little bit late now as Russia has moved the planes that were very near the border on the Russian side. Anyway, now that the planes are further away inside Russia, Ukraine will have a longer reaction time.

 

[Henry-Finland]

The fact that there has not been a destructive war in Europe since WWII is remarkable. Thank NATO for that.

India has contributed little to world security and enabling free trade on the oceans yet benefits from it.

Without NATO, Europe political and economic stability, and freedom of navigation on the oceans India would not have advanced.

China is threatening freedom of navigation on important sea and air trade routes by declaring the South China Sea Chinese territory.

NATO and others transit the disputed waters to counter China.

You mean none that affected the US? Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya or Ukraine.
India is a third world country. We have many limitations.
Freedom of navigation is accepted by all except China. Do we need to thank NATO or US for it?
China and not Russia is now the main competitor of US.
India is going to be a distant third by the time Modi's third tenure ends in 2029 overtaking Japan and Germany.

"As such, China's GDP of ¥95.5 trillion would be worth $27.3 trillion in the United States (¥74.6/3.5). That's $5.9 trillion, or nearly 28 percent, more than the US GDP of $21.4 trillion in 2019."

The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States - knoema.com

Which is the world's largest economy, China or the United States? As is usual in the field of economics, “It depends.” It depends on the methods used to estimate the size of an economy and to compare one economy to another. Despite modern discussions on refining the calculation of gross domestic...

knoema.com

I read once that 70% of Chinese export is to the western countries and 3% to Russia.
Even if the exports would be much lower to western countries, let's say 50%, it means that China would be bankrupt very soon if a war broke out.
And some hundred million would be without work => unrest of a magnitude that nobody has ever seen.
The Chinese Communist Party knows this.

As Mao once said: "There is no hurry, China can wait a hundred years..."

A more interesting question is:
When does China take back what Stalin grabbed?
Last month China already got a river bank from Russia and can now export directly to the Japanese sea.
I think also that was "a friendly gesture"?

China is just watching as Russia gets weaker and weaker and acts accordingly. China is some thousand years old - and it has time.