How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

I wonder how it comes to be that two major countries, Russia and China are incapable of governing themselves except via terror and police tactics

Perhaps it would be more sensible to ask how any country is capable of governing itself without terror and police tactics.

Liberal democracy is a new and radical idea. Most societies in history have been authoritarian dictatorships, or at best authoritarian oligarchies.

The majority of people in the majority of places for the majority of history have had only one choice - between doing exactly as they are told, or being severely punished (and probably killed).

Even modern China and modern Russia are somewhat less autocratic than most historical societies. Their people certainly have better lives than the subjects of Queen Elizabeth I, who was ruler of one of history's more tolerable locations and periods. Mostly because of technology, of course, but then, technology is an effect of (as well as being the cause of) greater autonomy and freedom.

 

[SLD]

Two ship moving away from the scene also appear to be on fire (not the first two in the video).

Yeah, you can see they’re hit. There are numerous secondary explosions, indicating that the ship has ammo in it. There are splashes far out in the water showing that things are being thrown a great distance. There’s a fire on shore as well, which Ukraine reports was an ammo or supply depo. I hope this slows Russia’s assault on Mariupol.

In WWI, Halifax was destroyed when an ammo ship collided in the fog and exploded while trying to dock. 1700 plus killed. Can’t say I blame those ships for running like hell.

 

[crazyfingers]

Two ship moving away from the scene also appear to be on fire (not the first two in the video).

Yeah, you can see they’re hit. There are numerous secondary explosions, indicating that the ship has ammo in it. There are splashes far out in the water showing that things are being thrown a great distance. There’s a fire on shore as well, which Ukraine reports was an ammo or supply depo. I hope this slows Russia’s assault on Mariupol.

In WWI, Halifax was destroyed when an ammo ship collided in the fog and exploded while trying to dock. 1700 plus killed. Can’t say I blame those ships for running like hell.

Halifax Explosion - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The largest non-nuclear man made explosion. The Bomb dropped on Hiroshima was only 7 times larger.

Ammo ship SS Mont Blanc

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cc/SS_Mont_Blanc%2C_in_1899.png/600px-SS_Mont_Blanc%2C_in_1899.png

 

[Rhea]

We toured the Halifax museum on this. Never knew about it until we were there. Astonishing damage. So many people killed, and a slo-mo disaster as the burning ship, it’s crew abandoned and swiming away, floated downstream and into the pier area just as it exploded. The crew was shouting at people to run run RUN! While some came out of their houses and down to the dock to sight-see what the commotion was about.

Most heartfelt story, one crew member who jumped ship when the fire was detected and swam to the opposite shore and started running, saw a woman come out with her baby. He grabbed the baby out of her arms and kept running, causing her to turn and run after “the man who stole my baby,” ensuring that they both (all) lived.

The city of Boston, MA, got a telegram of the disaster, sent just before the telegraph line was blown, and immediately rounded up clothes and food and put it on a ship and set sail. It was cold (December 6) and the supplies saved lives; and ever since the Christmas tree in the center of Boston is a gift from Halifax.

Also from the telegraph office was a signal sent to a passenger train that was headed into Halifax as that burning ship was drifting, and they managed to get it stopped before it rolled into the area with hundreds of people aboard.

Windows were broken 3 miles away.

It’s an incredible story - I recommend the browse:

Halifax Explosion - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SLD]

We toured the Halifax museum on this. Never knew about it until we were there. Astonishing damage. So many people killed, and a slo-mo disaster as the burning ship, it’s crew abandoned and swiming away, floated downstream and into the pier area just as it exploded. The crew was shouting at people to run run RUN! While some came out of their houses and down to the dock to sight-see what the commotion was about.

Most heartfelt story, one crew member who jumped ship when the fire was detected and swam to the opposite shore and started running, saw a woman come out with her baby. He grabbed the baby out of her arms and kept running, causing her to turn and run after “the man who stole my baby,” ensuring that they both (all) lived.

The city of Boston, MA, got a telegram of the disaster, sent just before the telegraph line was blown, and immediately rounded up clothes and food and put it on a ship and set sail. It was cold (December 6) and the supplies saved lives; and ever since the Christmas tree in the center of Boston is a gift from Halifax.

Also from the telegraph office was a signal sent to a passenger train that was headed into Halifax as that burning ship was drifting, and they managed to get it stopped before it rolled into the area with hundreds of people aboard.

Windows were broken 3 miles away.

Saw that museum about 33 years ago.

 

[steve_bank]

In the Falklands War the Argentinians hit a British a ship with a French Exocet missile.

HMS Sheffield (D80) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I believe a British sub torpedoed an Argentinian ship.

In a full scale naval battle today I doubt much would survive.

 

[crazyfingers]

It’s an incredible story - I recommend the browse:

It is an incredible story. I recall a bunch of years ago I must have clicked a link in a story in the Boson Globe about the origin of the xmas tree from Halifax. I spent the rest of my evening reading various accounts.

 

[Keith&Co.]

In the Falklands War the Argentinians hit a British a ship with a French Exocet missile.

One of those sailors spoke to our command. Scary shit. Aluminum ladders are light and easy to clean, but they fucking evaporate in a fire.

At the startA of Falklands, the Exocet was still on the list of 'allied' weapons for Britain , so the usual countermeasures didn't engage upon detection of the launch. They fixed that.


Won't be nearly as much of a problem fighting, oh, say, Russia, just for a random choice.
They fly the wespons our weapons were designed to knock out of the sky, and we definitely won't have anything Russian set to 'Friend' on our 'Friend Or Foe' radar.

 

[steve_bank]

What about the newer agile anti ship missiles? High speed random course changes? It is what the Chinese are working on.

 

[steve_bank]

Note during the VN War MLK was criticized by some blacks for not supporting the war.

Really? Do you have a cite, of blacks supporting the Viet Nam war and thinking MLK should?

I remember he was criticized for opposing the war, but that was because it diluted the civil rights message. They thought he should have stayed out of that fight completely. Didn't know anyone expected him to support our involvement.

Not off the top of my head. Maybe I may have misremembered from a documentary on this one.

 

[steve_bank]

I kisted to a Ukranian who had worked in the Kremlin and knew Putin on BBC radio.

He said Putin is rational and what is going on now behind closed doors is assignment of blame. The Ukrainian said he probably got bad information from his generals. Two high profile peoole are said to be misting from view for a week. One is the defense minister.

Putin will probably find propaganda to explain the failures. Western spies and Nazis. If Putin stays true to Russian form, show trialss and prison.

He also said the odds are Putin will be dead within a year. He named four factions that would be competing for power. Liberals, military coup, oligarchs, and the people meaning a potential civil war.

Polls show 2/3 of Russians support the war.

 

[Elixir]

Putin wants to restore his imagined glory and power of the Soviet Union.

The rony is he doing exactly what the communists did to bring dom the Soviet System

1. Militray acquisition and control of states.
2. Suppression of free speech and media.
3. Treating the west as an adversary.
4. Not integrating into the western free market economy in favor of an oligarchy-kleptocracy.
5. Institutionalized corruption,

That defies explanation. I have to think there’s something woefully wrong between his ears.
This is sure to end even more badly than it’s going now, and no country other than Ukraine is going to suffer more than Russia.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Harry Bosch]

That's really funny. And grounded in truth. I do feel bad for the Ukrainians. They have suffered greatly. The best that we can do is help them as much as we can without directly confronting Russia. Bankrupt Russia if we need to. Then the west needs to help Ukraine rebuild. Help them as much as we can economically.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Harry Bosch]

As an aside: I think that we should stop referring to Belarus as if it is a sovereign country. It has become a subservient state of Russia. We should treat it as such.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

As an aside: I think that we should stop referring to Belarus as if it is a sovereign country. It has become a subservient state of Russia. We should treat it as such.

Putinstan and Lukastan

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine-Russia War Live Updates: Biden in Poland, NATO and E.U. News - The New York Times

"Russia is not in full control of Kherson anymore, the Pentagon says."

Ukrainian forces are now fighting fiercely in Kherson and pushing back Russian gains there, again making the strategically important port city “contested territory,” the official told reporters during a briefing.

"The United Nations said on Friday that more than 1,000 civilians had died in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began, many of them in what appear to be indiscriminate bombardments that could constitute war crimes."

"Russia says its focus is on eastern Ukraine, not major cities, signaling a possible shift."
Seems like they are conceding defeat.

"Russian forces secure a partial land corridor, Ukrainian officials say, but have had few recent territorial gains."

Even as Ukraine’s military said on Friday that Russian forces had secured a partial land corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, analysts say there has been little in the way of large scale territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine in recent days.

A good stopgap solution, but a permanent one will require renewable-energy development, including synfuels development.

About a month into Russia’s invasion, the Ukrainian government and military directly said for the first time that its intelligence showed the Kremlin believed the invasion had entered a new “protracted” phase, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

"Germany says it is moving quickly to cut the cord on Russian energy." and "President Biden strikes a natural gas deal to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russia."

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine war; Russian troops face being surrounded near Kyiv | Daily Mail Online

• Ukrainian troops counter-attacking Russian forces to the west and east of the capital Kyiv after assault stalled
• Russian forces at Bucha and Irpin are in danger of being surrounded, British Ministry of Defence has warned
• Meanwhile Ukrainians have pushed Putin's men between 15 and 20 miles out of the east of the capital
• Videos reveal tank getting blown sky-high and rocket artillery raining down as Russia suffers heavy losses

...
Heavy fighting is going on to both the west and east of Kyiv as Ukrainian troops - who have suffered through a month of dogged defending under heavy bombardment - are attempting to retake the initiative from Russian invaders by launching attacks of their own.

Makariv and Moschun, two cities to the west of the capital, have 'probably' been re-taken by Kyiv's troops - the British Ministry of Defence said overnight - meaning there is now a 'realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are able to encircle Russian units at Bucha and Irpin'.

Ukraine Has Launched Counteroffensives, Reportedly Surrounding 10,000 Russian Troops

Ukraine’s military forces Russian troops east of Kyiv back 55 km from city center - ABC News
"In a significant movement, Ukraine's military forces have pushed back Russian forces east of Kyiv to 55 kilometers from the city center, according to a senior defense official."

 

[lpetrich]

I should note Greek colonists in my list of the last 5,000 - 6,000 years of Ukraine:

• Proto-Indo-European speakers: Yamnaya, from Samara area in the middle Volga River
• Scythians, from Sintashta, just E of the S Urals
• Greek colonists on the Black Sea coast, from Greece
• Celts, from W Europe
• Goths, some Germanic tribes, from Jastorf, in Denmark and nearby
• Huns, from Central Asia
• Slavs, from SE Poland / SW Belarus / NW Ukraine
• Magyars (Hungarians), from S Urals
• Turks and Tatars, from Central Asia
• Mongols, from Central Asia