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Is Georgia on your mind?

 
 
 
southernhybrid said:
This morning's prediction is that the election will be very close and that there is a good chance that Warnock will win, but Ossoff might not. Of course, this is just the opinion of outsiders who have been hanging out in Georgia, talking to people. They believe that Black voters have been highly energized by Warnock, and some white voters simply can't stand Loeffler, so they will vote for Warnock, but then also vote for Perdue. I have no idea if that is true because all of my friends are Democrats and they have already voted for the two Democrats. The biggest question imo, is how many of the Republicans who voted for Biden in the general, will vote for one or both Dems in the runoff. Apparently, there are a lot of Georgia voters who are happy to split the ticket.....people are saying. :)

Of course, as predicted, most of Trump's Georgia's rally was about Trump.
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Maybe I'm too jaded, but despite Kemp and Ratso calling out Trump, I still assume a lot of skullduggery beyond the obvious suppression tactics. I know that Stacey has done a lot to tighten up accountability but the nagging feeling that there are holes in the system won't go away.
 
I'm mostly curious to see how much GOP participation goes down. There are a lot of people talking about how the system is corrupt and they won't participate, but have no idea how much of that is an honest statement or just trying to troll people or meaningless venting or what. If it goes like the election, most of the early and absentee votes will favour the Dems, but then be countered by higher GOP numbers on election day. The early voting is much larger than it's been historically, but will that be accompanied by massive turnout today as well?
 
Tom Sawyer said:
I'm mostly curious to see how much GOP participation goes down. There are a lot of people talking about how the system is corrupt and they won't participate, but have no idea how much of that is an honest statement or just trying to troll people or meaningless venting or what. If it goes like the election, most of the early and absentee votes will favour the Dems, but then be countered by higher GOP numbers on election day. The early voting is much larger than it's been historically, but will that be accompanied by massive turnout today as well?
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As I keep saying, at least to democrats and especially in this thread (mostly because it bears repeating and is really the only sensible message from the left),

tRumpanzees not voting? Great, that means that when you vote, we will win by an even larger margin!

Not voting because it is "in the bag" is the easiest way to walk home with an empty bag.
 
Elixir said:
southernhybrid said:
This morning's prediction is that the election will be very close and that there is a good chance that Warnock will win, but Ossoff might not. Of course, this is just the opinion of outsiders who have been hanging out in Georgia, talking to people. They believe that Black voters have been highly energized by Warnock, and some white voters simply can't stand Loeffler, so they will vote for Warnock, but then also vote for Perdue. I have no idea if that is true because all of my friends are Democrats and they have already voted for the two Democrats. The biggest question imo, is how many of the Republicans who voted for Biden in the general, will vote for one or both Dems in the runoff. Apparently, there are a lot of Georgia voters who are happy to split the ticket.....people are saying. :)

Of course, as predicted, most of Trump's Georgia's rally was about Trump.
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Maybe I'm too jaded, but despite Kemp and Ratso calling out Trump, I still assume a lot of skullduggery beyond the obvious suppression tactics. I know that Stacey has done a lot to tighten up accountability but the nagging feeling that there are holes in the system won't go away.
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I have to disagree with you on that one. I think this election will be fair. It's extremely easy to vote in Ga. and I've seen no recent attempts to suppress the vote. Raffensperger seems like an honest person to me. It was Kemp who did the voter suppression thing when he was SOS. He isn't directly involved in controlling this election. So, I think your nagging feelings are unwarranted. Please, let's not get like the Republicans and start conspiracy theories. :D

The problem is that a large number of Republicans voted for Biden and I'm skeptical that a large number of them will vote for Warnock or Ossoff. I have heard some talk of Trump supporters who say that won't vote unless Trump is on the ballot. My hope is that there are a lot of them. :D That might be our only hope. My brother in law is a former Trump supporter who finally saw the light, but he gave my husband the impression that he's not even going to vote in this election out of disgust for Trump. Some of my friends are going to be devastated if the Dems lose, but I'm a realist. I'll be ecstatic if the Dems win, but not surprised if they lose. I do sometimes resent that the rest of the country has put so much pressure on those of us who vote in Ga, as if we can save the country. :glare:

Ossoff had about 2% fewer votes than Perdue in November, but due to the libertarian candidate getting a couple of percent, Perdue never got over 50%, which as you know is required in Ga. to win. If it weren't for that quirky rule, that requires the winner to receive over 50% of the vote, the Republicans would already have. the majority in the Senate.
 
Is there any idea on when a winner will be named. The hope is that right-wing turnout is light and is drowned by left-wing turnout and a winner can be declared tonight. But if the in person voting has the right-wing drowning out the left-wing, we need all the absentee ballots to be involved again.

Only two races this time, so it shouldn't take as long, but still, if turnout percentages are close to what they were, will it take a week to have an answer? And if it takes a week, does that mean it'll take a month? If the turnout is similar, do any of the libertarian voters switch their Senate votes?

MN '08 was a very tight race... and to be fair, without a drowning of right-wing voters, the Democrat candidates have a stepper climb than Biden had for winning, and Biden won by less than 20,000. Meaning if Democrats win, it might be too tight.

And for the whacky and crazy magic ball possibilities... can a two candidate race end with no one getting over 50% +1, ie, large enough amount of no-vote protests from Trump supporters that have completely lost their political mind.
 
I think we can probably assume at least one recount, at least four lawsuits, and another phone call from Danger Yam, but i doubt anyone's going to pick up the phone this time.
 
While Trump is out there bs'ing on how was it possible for Biden to get so many votes, I checked up on Sen. Purdue.

2014:
Purdue: 1.36 million
Nunn:1.16 million

2020:
Purdue: 2.46 million (+81%)
Ossoff: 2.37 million (+104%)

In other miracles of math, it is expected that turnout won't quite match the General election. For Ossoff to win, and assuming all Libertarian votes go to Purdue, Ossoff needs a differential drop in turnout of 9 pts to win. IE, if 100% who voted in 2020 for Ossoff show up and Purdue only has 91%, then Ossoff wins. If you exclude the Libertarian votes, it is about 4 to 5% differential change.

When you look at it like that, it doesn't look very hopeful.

Loeffler and Warnock have no numbers to play with.
 
Early voting appears to be about 77% of 2020's General Election.

Running the numbers if Ossoff is 81% of his 2020 numbers and Purdue is 74% (average of 77ish%), Ossoff wins. Yes, that 77% doesn't include today's voting numbers, so it has little value, BUT!!! as a grain of wheat to take with the salt, BOTH mail-in and early voting were 77%. Maybe in person voting increases, we'll see. CNN reports that wait times are between 1 to 5 minutes, except higher in... yes... urban areas (I have no data on the General election wait time). Certainly early voting helps urban areas, by decreasing the time to wait in line!

With that number at 77%, it really could mean anything. It means the tide lowered, it means one side lowered less than the other. Additional stats suggest the tide dropped with more reported blacks voting early (31% to 27%)... and more reported whites voting early (56% from 53%). If you are pondering how that is possible, I'm right there with you, though it could simply be more people are reporting their race.

Another interesting statistic (same link), 114,000 new voters... ie people that didn't vote in November. I can see that being a higher percentage of voters being targeted by Abrams over new Trump voters, but it seems Trump is able to get people to vote that hadn't before... but I really can't see there could be that many convinced to vote for the runoffs verses the General Election and disaffected African American citizens would be more likely to be convinced to vote out of the blue, as Abrams seems gifted in that sphere of politics.
 
Well, the most recent bad news for Democrats is that lines are starting to form in at least one of Georgia's very conservative counties. People who were interviewed in line said crazy things like they were fearful of voting by mail, or voting early, etc. Everyone interviewed said they were voting for the Republicans. I did drive down to the corner where voting takes place on election day. It didn't look very crowded, but maybe I'll check again around 4 or 5 to see if turnout is higher.

Another concern is that a huge number of absentee ballots haven't been returned yet. Maybe these folks are just procrastinating. They have until 7PM to put them in a drop box, but since it's usually Democrats who vote absentee, I am concerned about that.

On a funnier note, Tyler Perry never received his absentee ballot, so he flew into Georgia today just to vote. Must be nice. A friend of mine never got her absentee ballot after asking twice, but she did go and vote early a couple of weeks ago.
 
Based on the metrics available, unless Republican voters suffered a tremendous amount of voter apathy, there doesn't appear to be a significant underrepresentation of them at the polls. In Chatham County, early voting is below the average for the state. Who isn't voting? Additionally, there are 114,000 or so new voters this election (who didn't vote in 2020). I'd put a small wager the majority of those voters are people that care what Stacey Abrams says instead of Trump supporters that finally bothered to vote for the first time.

The one benefit we have here over 2020 is that we have the break down of every country based on the types of votes. So the early numbers, hopefully are the in-person voting and the early in-person voting, which we can shove into spreadsheets! For instance, in Chatham County, Ossoff had a 7,000 net gain of votes in the booth (early/Election Day). That at least provides a metric for early reporting. Err... maybe.
 
Top Georgia election official holds a press conference to debunk Trump's lies.
[YOUTUBE]zwld6Ly5TVs[/YOUTUBE]
I was impressed with the guy; and he speaks quickly so it's not too boring. Life-long Republican, but he obviously thinks Trump is a crook. (He minces words when that question is posed, however.)

One problem I have with the guy is: He's encouraging all Georgians to vote. At this point I regard it as treasonous NOT to encourage Gopsters to stay home on election day. But he has a Yankee accent and obviously has an IQ 30 points higher than the typical Trumpist, so I don't expect deplorables to pay any attention to his advice.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Based on the metrics available, unless Republican voters suffered a tremendous amount of voter apathy, there doesn't appear to be a significant underrepresentation of them at the polls. In Chatham County, early voting is below the average for the state. Who isn't voting? Additionally, there are 114,000 or so new voters this election (who didn't vote in 2020). I'd put a small wager the majority of those voters are people that care what Stacey Abrams says instead of Trump supporters that finally bothered to vote for the first time.

The one benefit we have here over 2020 is that we have the break down of every country based on the types of votes. So the early numbers, hopefully are the in-person voting and the early in-person voting, which we can shove into spreadsheets! For instance, in Chatham County, Ossoff had a 7,000 net gain of votes in the booth (early/Election Day). That at least provides a metric for early reporting. Err... maybe.
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Yeah, all that at your own risk (if any).
It's one thing to say stuff about Ossoff/Purdue, but that race is irrelevant if Warnock doesn't win and we have no priors for him or for the pod person he is up against.
 
Watching Steve Kornacki on MSNBC and getting surprisingly hopeful. I really didn't think the dems had a chance. Looks like a lot of Republicans stayed home.
 
ZiprHead said:
Watching Steve Kornacki on MSNBC and getting surprisingly hopeful. I really didn't think the dems had a chance. Looks like a lot of Republicans stayed home.
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CNN is reporting that a lot of the early results are from early voting which favors democrats. Don't be shocked to see it tighten a lot or shift. The opposite of PA in Nov.
 
barbos said:
Stop the count!
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It would apparently be completely legitimate for Democrats to challenge the election should a bunch of votes appear overnight and all of a sudden the Republicans are winning in the morning. Clearly that’s a sign of fraudulent activity, right? One in a trillion odds against that happening naturally!
 
I'm on the verge of calling this for the Democrats. The numbers are very positive at the moment with a lot of blue areas to report. Staff on MSNBC is quite giddy at the moment.

NY Times live trending has Ossoff and Warnock edging the wins.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
I'm on the verge of calling this for the Democrats. The numbers are very positive at the moment with a lot of blue areas to report. Staff on MSNBC is quite giddy at the moment.

NY Times live trending has Ossoff and Warnock edging the wins.
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It appears the major areas slow to report are the large metropolitan areas that are heavily Democratic. The rural counties are pretty much already counted.
 
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