When faced with the choice between an overly complex and intricate conspiracy and a simple, stupid fuck up, I go with the fuck up.
I prefer the approach where we look at the evidence and try to put it together, but that's just me.
And the evidence is that
1. It appears the plane was diverted.
2. There is no evidence that eastern rebels had the kind of rocket launcher required.
You can't hand wave these things away and rely on a youtube video,
and call your explanation simple.
There is no evidence that the plane was diverted; the crash location (location of the Emergency Locator Beacon),
as reported by Malaysia Airlines at 48 degrees 7 minutes and 23 seconds North; and 38 degrees 31 minutes and 33 seconds East, is just to the North of airway L980, which was the route lodged by MAS in their flight plan. The distance between the airway and the crash site is well within what would be expected given that the debris has to fall from FL350 (about 35,000 feet, or more than six miles up); a minor deviation to the north, within the airway, might well occur for weather avoidance*, but at that altitude, the difference in position to a SAM battery on the ground would be completely irrelevant.
Of course, if you a) have no clue about aviation, and b) are a conspiracy theorist, then every detail is hard evidence for whatever crazy idea you want to spout. But the facts most assuredly don't support your theory.
This is the flight plan as filed (I have bolded the relevant sector, on airway L980 between PEKTIT and TAMAK waypoints, cruising speed 480 Knots at Flight Level 350):
(FPL-MAS17-IS
-B772/H-SDFGHIJ3J5M1RWXY/LB1D1
-EHAM1000
-N0490F310 ARNEM UL620 SUVOX UZ713 OSN UL980 MOBSA DCT POVEL DCT SUI L980 UTOLU/N0490F330 L980 LDZ M70 BEMBI L980
PEKIT/N0480F350 L980 TAMAK/N0480F350 A87 TIROM/N0490F350 A87 MAMED B449 RANAH L750 ZB G201 BI DCT MURLI DCT TIGER/N0490F370 L333 KKJ L759 PUT R325 VIH A464 DAKUS DCT
-WMKK1137 WMSA WMKP
-EET/EDGG0017 EDWW0023 EDUU0036 EPWW0052 UKLV0135 UKBV0153 UKDV0225 URRV0255 UATT0347 UTAK0411 UTAA0432 UTAV0507 OAKX0518 OPLR0601 OPKR0616 VIDF0631 VABF0725 VECF0747 VYYF0926 VOMF0930 VTBB1013 WMFC1051 REG/9MMRD PBN/A1B1C1D1L1O1S2 SEL/QREJ DOF/140717 RMK/ACASII EQUIPPED)
This link
http://skyvector.com/?ll=48.13823301339375,38.54635620414529&chart=304&zoom=2&plan=F.UK.PEKIT:F.UK.TAGAN:F.UK.GANRA:G.48.10180663831042,38.40454101859642:G.48.123056,38.525833 goes to an interactive airways chart showing that sector of the route; for illustative purposes I have added an arbitrary departure from the airway at N48°6.11' E38°24.27' and ending at the ELB location, which lies about 5 nautical miles from the L980 airway, around half way between the airway and BELOL waypoint.
Somebody shot it down - there are several people in the area with the capability to do so.
Conspiracy theories that ignore these widely published and undeniable facts deserve nothing but derision.
* A SIGMET (weather warning) for the region is still in place, warning of thunderstorms in the entire Dnipropetrovsk Flight Information Region:
WSUR35 UKDV 180201 UKDV SIGMET 2 VALID 180300/180600 UKDV- UKDV DNIPROPETROVSK FIR EMBD TSGR FCST OVER WHOLE DNIPROPETROVSK FIR TOP FL350/400 MOV N 15KMH