Polls of the Presidential Race

[Elixir]

Florida doesn't shouldn't matter.

FIFY

ALL the other so-called battleground States will be contested if Trump wins Florida. If he is declared the winner in Florida on election night there will be no margin of victory in any of those other States that will not be contested (unless Texas should fall - that might be a fatal blow). The DOJ/Trump lawyers will tie those results up until the "safe harbor" deadline passes. Violence will run rampant in the meanwhile. If "necessary" to ensure the outcome Trump desires, he will use that violence to declare martial law, get Barr to start locking up Democrats and start seriously tearing down the house of Democracy.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538 has Florida going to Biden by +4.4%. In 2016, Trump took Florida with a +1.2% margin, only 111k votes.

Florida is as we speaking, slipping through his fingers. Only 24 days to go. In late July, Biden lead Trump by +7.6%, so it is possible Biden will take Florida so decisively no amount of legal jiggery-pokery can save Trump.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Florida doesn't shouldn't matter.

FIFY

With a Blue Virginia, Florida graduated to, doesn't matter.

 

[Elixir]

538 has Florida going to Biden by +4.4%. In 2016, Trump took Florida with a +1.2% margin, only 111k votes.

Florida is as we speaking, slipping through his fingers. Only 24 days to go. In late July, Biden lead Trump by +7.6%, so it is possible Biden will take Florida so decisively no amount of legal jiggery-pokery can save Trump.

Fingers crossed. That might be our only hope for a (relatively) peaceful transition of power.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

It's terrible knowing that the fate of the Nation may well rely on the fickle finger of Florida.

If Trump wins Florida or if it is too close to call, that will be known on the night of 11/3, and nothing that comes after that will be immune from Bill Barr and The Donald's corruption. If Biden loses FL but overtakes the electoral count in the days that follow, there will be violence in the streets, aided and abetted by whatever forces Barr and Trump can muster and/or incite.

If Sleepy Joe can pull off a win in Florida, that will probably be known on the night of 11/3 and there will be nothing that the Barr/Donald Junta can do about it. There is no credible path for Trump to win if that happens. A win in FL on election night would presage a blue tidal wave that would swamp and mostly abort any violent attempt to overturn the manifest will of the citizens.

Fucking Florida. Cuba might yet be end of us, or our salvation.

Iowa - Biden is up by +1.1%
Ohio - Biden is up by +0.9%
Georgia - Biden is up by 1.4%

It would be funny if Biden took these states by say, 8,000 votes or so. The GOP will then start pushing to change the winner take all electoral college system.

In Iowa, Greenfield is leading Ernst by 5.0% (Real Clear Politics). Send Joni back to the piggy farm!

 

[Artemus]

The GOP will then start pushing to change the winner take all electoral college system.

I strongly doubt that will happen. They know that they've only won the popular vote in 1 of the last 5 (soon to be 6) elections. Their only chance is the winner-take-all electoral college.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The GOP will then start pushing to change the winner take all electoral college system.

I strongly doubt that will happen. They know that they've only won the popular vote in 1 of the last 5 (soon to be 6) elections. Their only chance is the winner-take-all electoral college.

1 from the last 6 already. 92, 96, 00, 08, 12, 16.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I'se gots the 'roid raging, losing the election blues.....

 

[lpetrich]

Democrats lead in Florida and North Carolina ballot returns - CNNPolitics

Democrats are leading pre-election voting in Florida and North Carolina -- a stark reversal of 2016 trends in two key battleground states.
In both states, Democrats make up 52% of the votes returned so far, up more than 10 points each compared to the same time four years ago. In 2016, Republicans led by much smaller margins among pre-election votes, accounting for roughly 40% of returns each at this point in the election cycle.

Early voting has skyrocketed this year due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, but polling shows Republicans strongly prefer to vote in person on Election Day this year, which could account for the drop in the share of GOP pre-election votes compared to 2016 levels in Florida from 43% to 28% and North Carolina from 38% to 17%.

Some 5.2 million ballots have been sent in so far, a record. The total number will likely be around 130 million, the number for 2016.

 

[ZiprHead]

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

And with this brings complacency. People saying, "We got this" and staying home, not wanting to wait in that line.

While I think this could be a factor, i don't think it will be this time. I see people very fired up. Bonespur's victory in '16 could become a classic pyrrhic victory.

 

[Harry Bosch]

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

And with this brings complacency. People saying, "We got this" and staying home, not wanting to wait in that line.

Mm-hmm.

Then it's, "Aw shit." "Not again."

We need to maintain a sense of urgency. The bad people are going to cheat six ways to Tuesday. Lie to us. Tell us it's close, dammit!

Totally agree. Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole. We know that the republican base will vote in greater percentages than democrats. And finally, we know that due to EC that the Trump dosn't need a majority to win. He can win with 5 or 6% fewer votes. So, based on this, the vote is a tossup.

 

[ZiprHead]

Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole. We know that the republican base will vote in greater percentages than democrats. And finally, we know that due to EC that the Trump dosn't need a majority to win. He can win with 5 or 6% fewer votes. So, based on this, the vote is a tossup.

{Bolded} the same can be said of some Biden supporters so that's a toss-up.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole. We know that the republican base will vote in greater percentages than democrats. And finally, we know that due to EC that the Trump dosn't need a majority to win. He can win with 5 or 6% fewer votes. So, based on this, the vote is a tossup.

{Bolded} the same can be said of some Biden supporters so that's a toss-up.

Why do you think that some people think Biden is an asshole? I don't agree with him on every issue. Far from it. I liked Obama far more. I liked HRC more. But I'd have a beer with him in a second and have a great time. I'd have a beer with Bush junior in a second and have a great time (although obviously disagreed with most of his policies). Whereas Trump is just an asshole.

 

[TV and credit cards]

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

And with this brings complacency. People saying, "We got this" and staying home, not wanting to wait in that line.

Mm-hmm.

Then it's, "Aw shit." "Not again."

We need to maintain a sense of urgency. The bad people are going to cheat six ways to Tuesday. Lie to us. Tell us it's close, dammit!

Totally agree. Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole. We know that the republican base will vote in greater percentages than democrats. And finally, we know that due to EC that the Trump dosn't need a majority to win. He can win with 5 or 6% fewer votes. So, based on this, the vote is a tossup.

I don't know if I agree with the "not admitting to pollsters" part. In my neck of the woods, they have no compunction flying the Trump flag proudly high in hand so why lie to pollsters? That and I do not recall the polls being inaccurate during the midterms. Beyond that, I am heartened to see even more Biden signs as I drive the rural areas connecting towns. This mornings drive, Medina to Cuyahoga Falls via the wealthyish white collar countryside there is a healthy amount of Biden signs and little Trump (mostly in the older small houses with what I'll politely call recyclables all over the yard). I know it's just my small part of the world but being how closely divided Ohio is, I do think it deserves some weight.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump Has Three Big Problems Heading Toward Election Day | FiveThirtyEight

Familiar territory, like widespread disapproval of Trump's handling of the coronavirus, but Nate Silver pointed out Harry Truman's come-from-behind victory against Tom Dewey in 1948. But that was over 70 years ago and 18 elections back.

Biden Got Some Of His Best Polls This Week | FiveThirtyEight

538's average numbers for Sep 23 and Oct 7 (Biden - Trump):

• FL ... +1.6 ... +4.8
• NH ... +6.9... +9.8
• PA ... +4.8 ... +6.9
• GA ... -1.1 ... +1.0
• IA ... -1.0 ... +0.9
• OH ... -1.0 ... +0.7
• NC ... +1.2 ... +2.3
• NV ... +5.8 ... +6.6
• AZ ... +3.8 ... +4.4
• MN ... +9.2 ... +9.5
• MI ... +7.4 ... +7.7
• WI ... +6.8 ... +6.9
• TX ... -0.7 ... -1.5
• National ... +7.3 ... +9.4

This could be a post-debate bump for Biden, but given how good his numbers have been, he would still be ahead of Trump by a sizable margin.

 

[lpetrich]

Cruz: GOP could face 'bloodbath of Watergate proportions' on Election Day | TheHill

“I am worried. It’s volatile, it’s highly volatile ... if people are going back to work, if they’re optimistic, if they’re positive about the future, we could see a fantastic election — the president getting reelected with a big margin, Republicans winning both Houses of Congress and I think that’s a real possibility,” Cruz said.

“But I also think if on Election Day people are angry and they’ve given up hope and they’re depressed, which is what [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and [Senate Minority Leader Charles] Schumer want them to be, I think it could be a terrible election. I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”

An economic recovery in less than a month? That would require a stimulus so big that it would make Bernie Sanders and AOC look like fiscal conservatives.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Cruz: GOP could face 'bloodbath of Watergate proportions' on Election Day | TheHill

“I am worried. It’s volatile, it’s highly volatile ... if people are going back to work, if they’re optimistic, if they’re positive about the future, we could see a fantastic election — the president getting reelected with a big margin, Republicans winning both Houses of Congress and I think that’s a real possibility,” Cruz said.

“But I also think if on Election Day people are angry and they’ve given up hope and they’re depressed, which is what [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and [Senate Minority Leader Charles] Schumer want them to be, I think it could be a terrible election. I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”

An economic recovery in less than a month? That would require a stimulus so big that it would make Bernie Sanders and AOC look like fiscal conservatives.

Hence why Trump returned to the bargaining table regarding COVID stimulus round 2.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Hence why Trump returned to the bargaining table regarding COVID stimulus round 2.

Too bad Trump does not bargain. He makes his offer, take it or leave it, and acts surprised when the other side expresses dissatisfaction with his generous offer to do his bidding.

 

[marc]

Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole.

Heard this several times, but is there anything to show this idea is plausible? Trump supporters seem to tend toward being overtly supportive.
If anything I would suspect there might be a number of people who won’t vote for Trump, but publicly say they will, because they know the kind of harassment they may face from other republicans.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole.

Heard this several times, but is there anything to show this idea is plausible? Trump supporters seem to tend toward being overtly supportive.
If anything I would suspect there might be a number of people who won’t vote for Trump, but publicly say they will, because they know the kind of harassment they may face from other republicans.

Well, after doing some more recent research on it, it appears to be more nuanced that I'd thought:

https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/trump-voters-polling-accuracy-1.50032400