Polls of the Presidential Race

[Cheerful Charlie]

As Hurricane Delta barrels in on us, the latest polls from 538

National poll - Biden is up +9.4%. Can Biden reach +10%?
Florida - Biden is up +4.6%

I have been keeping careful watch on Florida. If Trump loses that it is all over.

Michigan - Biden is up +7.7%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up +6.9%
Wisconsin - Biden is up +6.9%
Iowa - Biden is up +0.9%
Georgia - Biden is up +1.0%
North Carolina - Biden is up +2.3%

Tonight is the VP debate. Can Pence blow it big?

 

[J842P]

As Hurricane Delta barrels in on us, the latest polls from 538

National poll - Biden is up +9.4%. Can Biden reach +10%?
Florida - Biden is up +4.6%

I have been keeping careful watch on Florida. If Trump loses that it is all over.

Michigan - Biden is up +7.7%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up +6.9%
Wisconsin - Biden is up +6.9%
Iowa - Biden is up +0.9%
Georgia - Biden is up +1.0%
North Carolina - Biden is up +2.3%

Tonight is the VP debate. Can Pence blow it big?

I doubt it, Pence is pretty milquetoast.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

As Hurricane Delta barrels in on us, the latest polls from 538

National poll - Biden is up +9.4%. Can Biden reach +10%?
Florida - Biden is up +4.6%

I have been keeping careful watch on Florida. If Trump loses that it is all over.

Michigan - Biden is up +7.7%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up +6.9%
Wisconsin - Biden is up +6.9%
Iowa - Biden is up +0.9%
Georgia - Biden is up +1.0%
North Carolina - Biden is up +2.3%

Tonight is the VP debate. Can Pence blow it big?

I doubt it, Pence is pretty milquetoast.

I have read a few recent news items on Pence's past debates. He can be a vicious little snot. He will probably attack Harris pretty hard. But his records as a lap dog for Trump will probably give Harris some counter attacks. Though she may go for a quick slap and on to her policies she wants as VP. The problem with Pence is that the nation is tired of pit bull attack politics. And incompetence of Trump. Pence can play to Trump's MAGA hat base, but that will not be enough. The Trump Pence administration is going to be hard to sell at this point, no matter how much lipstick Pence smears on that ugly pig.

2 1/2 hours to go.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Just checked 538

National polls - Biden is now up +9.5%
Florida - Biden is up +4.6%

Real Clear Politics has Biden up by +9.7% +9.7%! Woot! Woot!
Florida - Biden by +4.5%
Pennsylvania - Biden by +7.1%
Arizona - Biden by +6.2%

 

[lpetrich]

A wave of polls paints a dire picture for Trump - POLITICO - "The new surveys fall into two buckets: those that are bad for the president, and those that are horrible."

Between his widely panned debate performance and his Covid-19 infection after flouting his own administration's coronavirus guidelines, Trump isn't helping himself lately. He is behind former Vice President Joe Biden by eye-popping margins: 16 and 14 points in national CNN/SSRS and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls, respectively; 9 points in a New York Times/Siena College poll in Arizona and 13 points in a Pennsylvania survey from Quinnipiac University.

Even the president’s favorite pollster — Rasmussen Reports, whose methodology doesn’t meet POLITICO’s standards — has the president behind Biden by more than 10 points.

Trump managed to rebound from a similar deficit in 2016. But he had a few things going for him then that he does not now: Hillary Clinton was unpopular, and voters were more likely to say they were undecided or preferred third party candidates. And unlike four years ago, Trump has a record in office to defend.

The bad ones:

• Marquette U: WI voters: Biden 46%, Trump 41%, Jo Jorgensen (L) 4%, None of these 8%
• NYT / Siena Coll: OH B 45% T 44%, NV B 48% T 42%

The horrible ones:

• Quinnipiac U: FL B 51% T 40%, PA B 54% T 41%, IA B 50% T 45%, IA Senate Greenfield (D) 50%, Ernst (R) 45%

Compared to 2016, with its jumpy poll numbers,

This year's election, by contrast, has been extraordinarily stable. Since April 1, Biden has led Trump in the national RealClearPolitics average by between 4 points and 10 points, with only slight fluctuations despite the seesaw of historic news events and disruptions to daily life.

To put the current Biden bump in context: His current 9.4-point lead as of Wednesday afternoon is his largest margin over Trump in the average since late June.

 

[ideologyhunter]

It is so unfair!! Is this any way to treat a Lone Warrior? At least he can take comfort in knowing that, should he lose, and also lose in the circuit courts, and also lose in the Supreme Court, and also be pulled away from his desk in the O.O. one fat finger at a time -- at least he will know that America will have a new Lost Cause and our first official National Martyr. Stomp on, Lone Warrior! Pull off your mask proudly, hold your upside-down Bible (no one reads the damn thing anyway, right?) and salute something vaguely on the horizon, with your chin jutting proudly from your wattled -- with your chin jutting proudly.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538

National poll - Biden +9.8%
Florida - Biden +4.7%

Nearly double digits national for Biden.

Trump's tweeting that he wants Barr to arrest all his political opponents seems to be turning off voters.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

538

National poll - Biden +9.8%
Florida - Biden +4.7%

Nearly double digits national for Biden.

Trump's tweeting that he wants Barr to arrest all his political opponents seems to be turning off voters.

Florida is of significance because he is above 50% in a couple, and close to it in another. Clinton almost never crossed 50% in those polls. Trump only won Florida by 1.2%.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Drove by the BoE this morning and this afternoon. There be lines. I'll bet they have every other voting machine turned off for distancing. Maybe I shouldn't have voted by mail. I'm worried, even if I take a piss before I go, I'll have to take a piss long before I make it through the line.

 

[bilby]

Drove by the BoE this morning and this afternoon. There be lines. I'll bet they have every other voting machine turned off for distancing. Maybe I shouldn't have voted by mail. I'm worried, even if I take a piss before I go, I'll have to take a piss long before I make it through the line.

View attachment 29700

Why cents, and not percents? Do people really not understand what 'per-' implies? Or do Americans automatically ignore everything without a price tag?

 

[Keith&Co.]

Drove by the BoE this morning and this afternoon. There be lines. I'll bet they have every other voting machine turned off for distancing. Maybe I shouldn't have voted by mail. I'm worried, even if I take a piss before I go, I'll have to take a piss long before I make it through the line.

View attachment 29700

Why cents, and not percents? Do people really not understand what 'per-' implies? Or do Americans automatically ignore everything without a price tag?

I'm actually impressed they found the cent symbol and know what it was.
Everything's $, these days, even $.02.
Several coworkers thought i had somehow slipped into another language when i used one. "Is that Cyrillic?"

 

[TV and credit cards]

Drove by the BoE this morning and this afternoon. There be lines. I'll bet they have every other voting machine turned off for distancing. Maybe I shouldn't have voted by mail. I'm worried, even if I take a piss before I go, I'll have to take a piss long before I make it through the line.

View attachment 29700

Why cents, and not percents? Do people really not understand what 'per-' implies? Or do Americans automatically ignore everything without a price tag?

I guess because it’s a betting website. You could click on it and check it out for more.

 

[Elixir]

Drove by the BoE this morning and this afternoon. There be lines. I'll bet they have every other voting machine turned off for distancing. Maybe I shouldn't have voted by mail. I'm worried, even if I take a piss before I go, I'll have to take a piss long before I make it through the line.

View attachment 29700

Thanks for the reminder - I forgot to check! I had withdrawn all funds except some spare change, which I bet on something (I forget what) during my last visit. Looks like I won, because there was money in my acct. So I bet on Dems to win by 60-99 electoral votes at 7 cents a share. I thought that was a little under-priced at around 14:1.
If it wins I owe you a beer (case).

 

[Gospel]

Never forget
[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc&feature=emb_logo&ab_channel=SaturdayNightLive[/YOUTUBE]

 

[Elixir]

Also from predictit:

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

Oh gawd please! I don't see it happening, but a good 5 to 8% victory is pretty hard to overcome. That'd require throwing out several million ballots... which technically might still not help Trump.

 

[TV and credit cards]

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

And with this brings complacency. People saying, "We got this" and staying home, not wanting to wait in that line.

Mm-hmm.

Then it's, "Aw shit." "Not again."

We need to maintain a sense of urgency. The bad people are going to cheat six ways to Tuesday. Lie to us. Tell us it's close, dammit!

 

[Elixir]

It's terrible knowing that the fate of the Nation may well rely on the fickle finger of Florida.

If Trump wins Florida or if it is too close to call, that will be known on the night of 11/3, and nothing that comes after that will be immune from Bill Barr and The Donald's corruption. If Biden loses FL but overtakes the electoral count in the days that follow, there will be violence in the streets, aided and abetted by whatever forces Barr and Trump can muster and/or incite.

If Sleepy Joe can pull off a win in Florida, that will probably be known on the night of 11/3 and there will be nothing that the Barr/Donald Junta can do about it. There is no credible path for Trump to win if that happens. A win in FL on election night would presage a blue tidal wave that would swamp and mostly abort any violent attempt to overturn the manifest will of the citizens.

Fucking Florida. Cuba might yet be end of us, or our salvation.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It's terrible knowing that the fate of the Nation may well rely on the fickle finger of Florida.

Florida doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016. Had Clinton secured the blue wall, she would have won. But the Trump campaign targeted the block vote successfully and helped lower black turnout, and a lot of increased turnout in urban Michigan voted third party (?). Again, the battleground is VA, CO, NH, which don't appear close again. Then add WI, MI, and PA, and Biden wins. If Biden takes NC, FL, AZ, IA, TX, that is all gravy. The more the merrier, and a complete and utter ass-whipping would be great, granted, that'd be assumed by Trump Red Hat's as a stolen election and they'd probably rise to violence. Then our Libertarians would talk about how stealing the Presidency is cool.