Polls of the Presidential Race

[Patooka]

Candace Owens' BLEXIT group pays for some attendees' travel to Trump's White House event

Some guests for Saturday's White House event on the South Lawn, which will be President Donald Trump's first since testing positive for the coronavirus, had their travel and lodging paid for by controversial conservative activist Candace Owens' group BLEXIT, according to emails obtained by ABC News.

Attendees for Saturday's event were also told, "EVERYONE MUST WEAR A BLEXIT T-SHIRT (Which will be given to you ahead of the event) -- no exceptions."

I know this is a very minor issue, but any political movement that feels compelled to give instructions to its members in all-caps is suspect in my mind.

Love Christopher Titus' take on it all:

[tweet]1314997668616126464[/tweet]

 

[ZiprHead]

Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole. We know that the republican base will vote in greater percentages than democrats. And finally, we know that due to EC that the Trump dosn't need a majority to win. He can win with 5 or 6% fewer votes. So, based on this, the vote is a tossup.

{Bolded} the same can be said of some Biden supporters so that's a toss-up.

Why do you think that some people think Biden is an asshole? I don't agree with him on every issue. Far from it. I liked Obama far more. I liked HRC more. But I'd have a beer with him in a second and have a great time. I'd have a beer with Bush junior in a second and have a great time (although obviously disagreed with most of his policies). Whereas Trump is just an asshole.

Wow, you don't get out much, do you?

 

[Swammerdami]

Secondly, we know that many people won't admit to voting for Trump to pollsters because Trump is such an asshole....

{Bolded} the same can be said of some Biden supporters so that's a toss-up.

Why do you think that some people think Biden is an asshole? I don't agree with him on every issue. Far from it. I liked Obama far more. I liked HRC more. But I'd have a beer with him in a second and have a great time. I'd have a beer with Bush junior in a second and have a great time (although obviously disagreed with most of his policies). Whereas Trump is just an asshole.

I was also startled by Mr. ZiprHead's claim. Surely he's not thinking of this fervently Trump-supporting Senator? His condemnation of Biden ("as good a man as God ever created") hardly seems particularly damning.

The GOP will then start pushing to change the winner take all electoral college system.

I strongly doubt that will happen. They know that they've only won the popular vote in 1 of the last 5 (soon to be 6) elections. Their only chance is the winner-take-all electoral college.

1 from the last 6 already. 92, 96, 00, 08, 12, 16.

Nitpick: Did you mean 1 from the last 7? (Your list omits '04.)
ETA: Is this "1 for 7" / "1 to 6" confusion?

 

[Swammerdami]

According to Betfair punters, here are Biden's present chances in 14 swing states:

TX 27.6%
IA 40.8%
OH 43.5%
GA 44.0%
NC 54.1%
FL 57.3%
AZ 60.2%
PA 74.7%
NV 74.7%
WI 76.1%
MI 79.5%
NH 79.5%
MN 81.7%
VA 92.7%​

Compared with a few weeks ago, Biden's chances have improved almost everywhere (especially in the Rust Belt and NH) except for Florida where he was then 63%.

Just exactly as it was in 2016, Pennsylvania is the "tipping state" — the one Nate Silver places at the fulcrum of a seesaw in a pictorial. If Biden fails to get PA, Arizona is his best chance though its 11 EVs aren't quite enough. If Biden gets all states shown as 60+% except PA he will need both swing districts (rural Maine and Omaha) to get to 270 EVs, or one of the two for a 269-269 tie.

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

Oh gawd please! I don't see it happening, but a good 5 to 8% victory is pretty hard to overcome. That'd require throwing out several million ballots... which technically might still not help Trump.

Not really. What's the Nate Silver quote? Biden needs a 5 or 6% popular vote lead to have a 50-50 chance of winning the electoral vote?

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

And with this brings complacency. People saying, "We got this" and staying home, not wanting to wait in that line.

Mm-hmm.

Then it's, "Aw shit." "Not again."

We need to maintain a sense of urgency. The bad people are going to cheat six ways to Tuesday. Lie to us. Tell us it's close, dammit!

YES! This election is going to be very close, EV-wise. The Republicans will be pulling out every dirty trick they can think of; they will suppress millions of votes; they will be "calling in markers" from dozens of corrupt GOP judges.

I'd be almost tempted to bet on Trump at betting markets (though it would be too repugnant) except that Betfair will pay off on Biden if he appears to have won as of Nov. 4, regardless of any post-election litigation.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I suspect that 2021 will be the year President Biden declares war on voter caging, voter suppression, voter discouragement, voter purges, extreme gerrymandering, and all other GOP dirty tricks and anti-mail ballot voting. Only one drop off early voting ballot drop off box per county as in Texas and Ohio? Illegal! Not enough voting booths in PoC majority voting districts so there are 6 hour long lines to vote? Illegal. Voting machines and systems that are not well protected from hacking and incompetent government responses to foreign hacking attempts as Russia likes to try? No more.

Many laws have to be implemented on the state level, but the Federal government can make failure to act at the state level hurt financially at budget writing time. Light a very hot fire under the red states' feet.

Biden needs to set up a permanent commission of well qualified voting experts to sit permanently examining these things closely and suggesting good bills that need to be written and passed.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538

Biden is up by +10.3% nationally.
Biden is up +4.4% in Florida.
Biden is up +1.1% in Iowa

In Iowa, Greenfield is now ahead of Ernst is all the latest polls.

23 days to go, gallumping towards the finish line. 538 has Biden's chances of winning at 86%. Democrats re-taking Senate is rated at 68%. I may need to order another bottle of champagne.

 

[ZiprHead]

Why do you think that some people think Biden is an asshole? I don't agree with him on every issue. Far from it. I liked Obama far more. I liked HRC more. But I'd have a beer with him in a second and have a great time. I'd have a beer with Bush junior in a second and have a great time (although obviously disagreed with most of his policies). Whereas Trump is just an asshole.

I was also startled by Mr. ZiprHead's claim. Surely he's not thinking of this fervently Trump-supporting Senator? His condemnation of Biden ("as good a man as God ever created") hardly seems particularly damning.

https://www.alreporter.com/2020/08/21/alabama-republicans-react-to-bidens-nomination/

Lots of biden bashing here by republican bigwigs. Imagine what the mouthbreathing little guys are saying. Imagine too being a Biden supporting wife of one of these doofuses and taking a phone poll with your idiot husband in earshot.

 

[Swammerdami]

Alabama is the state a merciful God created so that Mississippi wouldn't finish last-place in every category.

Why do you think that some people think Biden is an asshole? ...

I was also startled by Mr. ZiprHead's claim. Surely he's not thinking of this fervently Trump-supporting Senator? His condemnation of Biden ("as good a man as God ever created") hardly seems particularly damning.

https://www.alreporter.com/2020/08/21/alabama-republicans-react-to-bidens-nomination/

Lots of biden bashing here by republican bigwigs. Imagine what the mouthbreathing little guys are saying. Imagine too being a Biden supporting wife of one of these doofuses and taking a phone poll with your idiot husband in earshot.

I admit I'm astounded by your evidence. But rank-and-file GOPsters or Trumpists would say the same about anyone Trump/Hannity/Alex_Jones tells them to hate, or anyone with a "(D)" by their name. And GOP "bigwigs" know they're spouting idiotic lies. Except maybe "bigwigs" in Alabama.

Man gotta think
Bird gotta fly
Trumpists gotta fart and fuck and lie, lie lie.

Man gotta love
Bird gotta mate
Trumpists got nuthin but greed, lust and hate​

What do those "bigwigs" think about the Lindsay Graham video I posted?

 

[Harry Bosch]

According to Betfair punters, here are Biden's present chances in 14 swing states:

TX 27.6%
IA 40.8%
OH 43.5%
GA 44.0%
NC 54.1%
FL 57.3%
AZ 60.2%
PA 74.7%
NV 74.7%
WI 76.1%
MI 79.5%
NH 79.5%
MN 81.7%
VA 92.7%​

Compared with a few weeks ago, Biden's chances have improved almost everywhere (especially in the Rust Belt and NH) except for Florida where he was then 63%.

Just exactly as it was in 2016, Pennsylvania is the "tipping state" — the one Nate Silver places at the fulcrum of a seesaw in a pictorial. If Biden fails to get PA, Arizona is his best chance though its 11 EVs aren't quite enough. If Biden gets all states shown as 60+% except PA he will need both swing districts (rural Maine and Omaha) to get to 270 EVs, or one of the two for a 269-269 tie.



Not really. What's the Nate Silver quote? Biden needs a 5 or 6% popular vote lead to have a 50-50 chance of winning the electoral vote?

538
National polls - Biden is up +10.1%

Biden has broken the double digit barrier! Can Joe get it up to 15% by election day?
Whip his ass good, Joe!

And with this brings complacency. People saying, "We got this" and staying home, not wanting to wait in that line.

Mm-hmm.

Then it's, "Aw shit." "Not again."

We need to maintain a sense of urgency. The bad people are going to cheat six ways to Tuesday. Lie to us. Tell us it's close, dammit!

YES! This election is going to be very close, EV-wise. The Republicans will be pulling out every dirty trick they can think of; they will suppress millions of votes; they will be "calling in markers" from dozens of corrupt GOP judges.

I'd be almost tempted to bet on Trump at betting markets (though it would be too repugnant) except that Betfair will pay off on Biden if he appears to have won as of Nov. 4, regardless of any post-election litigation.

Agreed. I think that it will be razor thin. And razor thin or even close will go to Trump. The republicans are just far better at winning elections with fewer numbers than dems are. I kinda sense that if there is a large increase in BLM protests and/or economy booms - Trump will win. But it will be down to the wire. Everyone needs to vote. And don't waste your vote. This is the election to make your discontent count.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538

This morning, nationally, Biden is up +10.5% All Trumpo's interviews with Lump Limpbrain and Sean Insanity are not helping. All his mad twittering and tweeting are not pushing his poll numbers up. None of his frantic Super Spreader events are helping him defeat Biden. All his lies are not handing him victory.

Only 21 days until election day.

We need some campaign style yard signs. Biden won! Suck it up Trump voters!

 

[southernhybrid]

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see how Trump can win. I suppose its possible that with extreme voter suppression and apathy, it could happen, but it's been decades since one candidate was as despised as Trump and the Democratic Party was as motivated to vote, even if a good percentage aren't enthusiastic about the candidate. People are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump. That's all that matters.

Plus, there are many Republican organizations, in addition to the Lincoln Project, that are working hard to get Republicans to vote for Biden, as they realize that Trump has fatally damaged their party. I've read conservative editorialists, like Bret Stephens, say that they will deal with it if the Dems control both the Congress and the presidency because nothing could be worse than Trump. Come on man. Here's the deal! Trump is going down!

 

[Politesse]

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see how Trump can win. I suppose its possible that with extreme voter suppression and apathy, it could happen, but it's been decades since one candidate was as despised as Trump and the Democratic Party was as motivated to vote, even if a good percentage aren't enthusiastic about the candidate. People are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump. That's all that matters.

He could do it like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election

 

[southernhybrid]

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see how Trump can win. I suppose its possible that with extreme voter suppression and apathy, it could happen, but it's been decades since one candidate was as despised as Trump and the Democratic Party was as motivated to vote, even if a good percentage aren't enthusiastic about the candidate. People are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump. That's all that matters.

He could do it like this:





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election

Well, the state polls are beginning to look like the national polls. There are only four states that don't start counting absentee ballots until the day of the election. Georgia is already counting our ballots. Did you see the long lines in Georgia yesterday on the first day of early voting. Some people waited in line for 11 hours to vote in the Atlanta metro area, which is a very Democratic region.

Sure, the Republicans are doing as much as possible to suppress the vote, but to me, it seems as if the people aren't going to stand for this. Trump supporters are mostly brainwashed members of a cult, with few exceptions. He's never gained any increased support. I do have concerns but I don't see him as being able to pull off a coup. I read this morning that there will be a lot more known on election night than we previously thought and it's likely that it is good news for Biden.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see how Trump can win. I suppose its possible that with extreme voter suppression and apathy, it could happen, but it's been decades since one candidate was as despised as Trump and the Democratic Party was as motivated to vote, even if a good percentage aren't enthusiastic about the candidate. People are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump. That's all that matters.

He could do it like this:





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election

Well, the state polls are beginning to look like the national polls. There are only four states that don't start counting absentee ballots until the day of the election.

Don't start processing you mean? I think most states don't start counting until election day. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina are notable exceptions.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see how Trump can win.

It would be the same way he gets to appoint three SCOTUS justices or a record number of Judicial appointments in one term. Or how he managed to avoid charges for ignoring subpoenas, Or how the DoJ kept a NY case at bay until after the election or how the DoJ stepped out in front of the Mueller impeach this fucker Report and say it didn't indicate anything wrong happened.

The GOP is in courts trying to limit the number of legitimate collection locations for ballots. The GOP in California was putting out fake collection ballot boxes. I think we'll know if the mail-in is an issue in Florida if Trump sues mid-October.

 

[TV and credit cards]

How Quickly Will Your Absentee Vote Be Counted? A State-by-State Timeline.

I voted yesterday. Got there about twenty minutes before opening. There were about three dozen people already waiting. It went quick though. They changed up the process from last year. Normally I would fill up a quick form. Get handed a chip card to stick in the machine. Make my selections. Watch the printout behind glass scroll by. Done. This go around, they asked for ID, a first for Ohio. My name and address appeared on a signature pad. I was handed a scantron card with my info on it to stick in the machine and my selections were printed on it. This card I took to another scanner that kept it. I suppose not having to fill up the initial form made things go quicker but I didn't know we were doing IDs now.

I'm surprised at the number of people wanting to vote early. I've never waited in line before. Everyone was friendly. Most everyone was masked up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

How Quickly Will Your Absentee Vote Be Counted? A State-by-State Timeline.

I voted yesterday. Got there about twenty minutes before opening. There were about three dozen people already waiting. It went quick though. They changed up the process from last year. Normally I would fill up a quick form. Get handed a chip card to stick in the machine. Make my selections. Watch the printout behind glass scroll by. Done. This go around, they asked for ID, a first for Ohio. My name and address appeared on a signature pad. I was handed a scantron card with my info on it to stick in the machine and my selections were printed on it. This card I took to another scanner that kept it. I suppose not having to fill up the initial form made things go quicker but I didn't know we were doing IDs now.

I'm surprised at the number of people wanting to vote early. I've never waited in line before. Everyone was friendly. Most everyone was masked up.

I already reviewed this here. The NY Times is plagiarizing me again.

 

[southernhybrid]

Well, the state polls are beginning to look like the national polls. There are only four states that don't start counting absentee ballots until the day of the election.

Don't start processing you mean? I think most states don't start counting until election day. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina are notable exceptions.

Georgia starts counting absentee ballots when they are received. When I checked ballot tracking, it said that my ballot had been accepted and COUNTED. I'm pretty sure that most states do that. I read about it somewhere, I will see if I can find a link. Meanwhile, if you have information that contradicts what I've said, please share it. This is rather confusing.

 

[southernhybrid]

I did find a link. I don't know how accurate it is because it says that Georgia doesn't count the ballots until 7AM on Election Day. If that's the case, it does make me wonder why ballot tracking claims that my vote and the votes of several of my friends were listed as accepted and counted.

I'll add the link that lists how each state supposedly counts absentee ballots. Some do count weeks before Election Day while other don't. None are allowed to report the count until Election Day. I'll see if I can find more information.


https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

 

[southernhybrid]

https://ballotpedia.org/When_states_can_begin_processing_and_counting_absentee/mail-in_ballots,_2020

That's another link. It probably shows the same thing as my previous link, but it has some maps of how many states count prior to Election Day. It also says that quite a few states leave absentee ballot counting up to the individual district. Some sates allow the ballots to be processed but the total count is kept secret. In all cases, the totals are not permitted to be released until Election Day.

According to both links, Georgia doesn't count until 7AM on Election Day, which still leaves me wondering why the tracking system says that our ballots have been counted. Perhaps they are automatically counted but the info isn't released until Election Day. Who the fuck knows at this point?