Polls of the Presidential Race

[angelo]

From Twitter. Copied by permission.


Bruce Stanford
@brhstanford
·
17h
Last two FL polls of Hispanics:

Marist: Trump leads 50-46

Qpac- Trump leads 48-46

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Hispanic voters seem to be shifting Republican now and abandoning the Dem party. This is something we’ve never quite seen before.
https://twitter.com/brhstanford?lang=en

 

[KeepTalking]

From Twitter. Copied by permission.


Bruce Stanford
@brhstanford
·
17h
Last two FL polls of Hispanics:

Marist: Trump leads 50-46

Qpac- Trump leads 48-46

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Hispanic voters seem to be shifting Republican now and abandoning the Dem party. This is something we’ve never quite seen before.
https://twitter.com/brhstanford?lang=en

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters

Florida’s Cuban American voters have long made toppling the communist government of Cuba a priority in presidential and congressional elections.

Unusual among Latinos, Cuban Americans have historically favored Republicans, although this preference is declining. Still, in 2016, Donald Trump got more than half of Florida’s Cuban American vote, compared to only a quarter of non-Cuban Latino votes. As a rough estimate, about half a million Cuban Americans voted in the Florida election. Trump won the state by only 112,911 votes.

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

 

[angelo]

From Twitter. Copied by permission.


Bruce Stanford
@brhstanford
·
17h
Last two FL polls of Hispanics:

Marist: Trump leads 50-46

Qpac- Trump leads 48-46

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Hispanic voters seem to be shifting Republican now and abandoning the Dem party. This is something we’ve never quite seen before.
https://twitter.com/brhstanford?lang=en

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters

Florida’s Cuban American voters have long made toppling the communist government of Cuba a priority in presidential and congressional elections.

Unusual among Latinos, Cuban Americans have historically favored Republicans, although this preference is declining. Still, in 2016, Donald Trump got more than half of Florida’s Cuban American vote, compared to only a quarter of non-Cuban Latino votes. As a rough estimate, about half a million Cuban Americans voted in the Florida election. Trump won the state by only 112,911 votes.

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Hispanics, Hispanics, not Latinos!

 

[angelo]

From Twitter. Copied by permission.


Bruce Stanford
@brhstanford
·
17h
Last two FL polls of Hispanics:

Marist: Trump leads 50-46

Qpac- Trump leads 48-46

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Hispanic voters seem to be shifting Republican now and abandoning the Dem party. This is something we’ve never quite seen before.
https://twitter.com/brhstanford?lang=en

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters

Florida’s Cuban American voters have long made toppling the communist government of Cuba a priority in presidential and congressional elections.

Unusual among Latinos, Cuban Americans have historically favored Republicans, although this preference is declining. Still, in 2016, Donald Trump got more than half of Florida’s Cuban American vote, compared to only a quarter of non-Cuban Latino votes. As a rough estimate, about half a million Cuban Americans voted in the Florida election. Trump won the state by only 112,911 votes.

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Do you?
While the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably, for example, by the United States Census Bureau, "Hispanic" is a different term that refers to native speakers of Spanish, or have Spanish-speaking ancestry, while "Latino" is more frequently used to refer generally to anyone of Latin American origin or ancestry, ...

 

[cycomiko]

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters



Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Do you?
While the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably, for example, by the United States Census Bureau, "Hispanic" is a different term that refers to native speakers of Spanish, or have Spanish-speaking ancestry, while "Latino" is more frequently used to refer generally to anyone of Latin American origin or ancestry, ...

While that's a nice wiki copy/paste, would you like to venture a guess as to how the Census Bureau decides who's Hispanic? If a person says they're Hispanic, the Census Bureau counts them as Hispanic. Cultural norms are shifting in the Latino vs Hispanic thing and they really are typically interchangeable in this country. I grew up in South Texas but since you're in Western Australia I sure you still know better than those of us over here on this side.

Either way, KeepTalking still had a good point. If you'll notice in the Twitter thing you posted, there's no link to the poll he speaks of and, as many others in that thread pointed out, comparing Florida hispanics/latinos to those in the rest of the country is a really bad metric.

 

[KeepTalking]

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters



Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Do you?
While the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably, for example, by the United States Census Bureau, "Hispanic" is a different term that refers to native speakers of Spanish, or have Spanish-speaking ancestry, while "Latino" is more frequently used to refer generally to anyone of Latin American origin or ancestry, ...

Is it your contention that Cubans, and Cuban Americans, are not native speakers of Spanish, and do not have Spanish-speaking ancestry?

Do tell.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That Marist poll is very weird!

• Trump has majority of Latinos and Whites... but not leading in Florida?! That seems in error. It Trump loses just a couple points among Latinos, doing better than he did in Florida in 2016 with Latinos, he'd lose? That is hard to swallow. We know that Cubans pull to the right, but Puerto Rico transplants certainly aren't going to be liking Trump.
• Trump is up substantially among Latinos... but down 8 points from the Exit Polls in 2016 with whites?
• If you look at gender, it is 20 pt lead for Trump among men, 17 pt lead for Biden among women. That means Trump is leading by a small margin in Florida.
• One last oddity, party ID, the Dems and GOP cancel out at 94 to 5 for each, and Biden is polling a 51 to 40 advantage among Independents. This indicates Biden has a healthy high end of margin of error lead.

If you ever wanted a muddled poll, this is your poll!

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters



Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Do you?
While the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably, for example, by the United States Census Bureau, "Hispanic" is a different term that refers to native speakers of Spanish, or have Spanish-speaking ancestry, while "Latino" is more frequently used to refer generally to anyone of Latin American origin or ancestry, ...

The term "Latino" is used in the Marist poll. Also, you are supposed to source your direct quotes.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I just listened to Biden speaking at a Union hall. It was a stem winder of a speech. Biden was not senile, or lacking in mental ability. He started out with a litany of Trumps lies and bad mistakes and bad policies. Biden plans to change tax codes to help working Americans. There are tax breaks for companies that offshore jobs. That will end. Some companies have their products manufactured in China or Mexico, but final assembly is done in America. And labelled Made In America. That deceptive labelling will end. Companies that want to do business with the federal government will get tax breaks if they make their products in America. And penalties if products are made over seas. U.S. government vehicles will have to be electric vehicles. Thousands of charging stations will be built. New jobs to put people back to work.

Biden was well prepared and spoke forcefully. No gaffes, no baloney, no losing track of the speech. The debates are going to be fun. Trump is going to get roasted. Again, the big takeaway is Biden is by no means lacking in mental acuity as the far right lie machine likes to claim.

Biden was right on top of the new Woodward book, so he has been well informed about the latest scandals and lies about covid-19.

 

[Politesse]

He was never mentally compromised, it's communication that poses his challenge, and anyone who has even remotely followed politics for the last two decades is familiar with Biden's frequent gaffes already, so I don't know how much mileage the attack ads can really hope to get out of them. Indeed, I think the Trump crowd are shooting themselves in the foot when they try to emphasize intelligence or clarity of communication. One is not a problem for Biden at all, and the other is less of a problem for him than it is for the clownish toddler-man their party put on the ticket.

 

[J842P]

From Twitter. Copied by permission.


Bruce Stanford
@brhstanford
·
17h
Last two FL polls of Hispanics:

Marist: Trump leads 50-46

Qpac- Trump leads 48-46

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Hispanic voters seem to be shifting Republican now and abandoning the Dem party. This is something we’ve never quite seen before.
https://twitter.com/brhstanford?lang=en

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters

Florida’s Cuban American voters have long made toppling the communist government of Cuba a priority in presidential and congressional elections.

Unusual among Latinos, Cuban Americans have historically favored Republicans, although this preference is declining. Still, in 2016, Donald Trump got more than half of Florida’s Cuban American vote, compared to only a quarter of non-Cuban Latino votes. As a rough estimate, about half a million Cuban Americans voted in the Florida election. Trump won the state by only 112,911 votes.

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Well, the poll isn't of all Cubans. Of course, George Bush got close to these numbers, I think, in 2004 he got something like 45% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, and did well overall.

 

[J842P]

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters



Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Do you?
While the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably, for example, by the United States Census Bureau, "Hispanic" is a different term that refers to native speakers of Spanish, or have Spanish-speaking ancestry, while "Latino" is more frequently used to refer generally to anyone of Latin American origin or ancestry, ...

While the term "Hispanic" technically means native speaker of Spanish, it is used essentially as a synonym for "Latino", which is just someone with a Latin American nationality (or descended from). But both terms are used more as a racial category than an ethno-linguistic one. E.g. native Spanish speakers from New Mexico would still be called Latino.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I just listened to Biden speaking at a Union hall. It was a stem winder of a speech. Biden was not senile, or lacking in mental ability. He started out with a litany of Trumps lies and bad mistakes and bad policies. Biden plans to change tax codes to help working Americans. There are tax breaks for companies that offshore jobs. That will end. Some companies have their products manufactured in China or Mexico, but final assembly is done in America. And labelled Made In America. That deceptive labelling will end. Companies that want to do business with the federal government will get tax breaks if they make their products in America. And penalties if products are made over seas. U.S. government vehicles will have to be electric vehicles. Thousands of charging stations will be built. New jobs to put people back to work.

Biden was well prepared and spoke forcefully. No gaffes, no baloney, no losing track of the speech. The debates are going to be fun. Trump is going to get roasted. Again, the big takeaway is Biden is by no means lacking in mental acuity as the far right lie machine likes to claim.

Biden was right on top of the new Woodward book, so he has been well informed about the latest scandals and lies about covid-19.

Bold: The FTC rule is "all or virtually all" of the product must be made in the USA to carry such labeling. In many instances, that can be a tough bar to meet with so many different components going into one product. New Balance got into a kerfuffle with the FTC over this. While many of there shoes were made in the US, certain parts were manufactured in China. So New Balance came up with a 70% USA made disclosure.
https://www.ftc.gov/tips-advice/business-center/guidance/complying-made-usa-standard

But I like Biden's commitment to doing away with the gas combustion engine. He'll need to do little work here. Much of the industry is racing toward this goal now. Amazon and UPS are clamoring for electric delivery trucks now, trucks that are not quite available. Of course if President Gasbag gets reelected, he'll probably take a page out of the Ohio playbook and hit electric vehicles with an additional tax to compensate for the loss of fuel tax revenue.

 

[J842P]

That Marist poll is very weird!

• Trump has majority of Latinos and Whites... but not leading in Florida?! That seems in error. It Trump loses just a couple points among Latinos, doing better than he did in Florida in 2016 with Latinos, he'd lose? That is hard to swallow. We know that Cubans pull to the right, but Puerto Rico transplants certainly aren't going to be liking Trump.
• Trump is up substantially among Latinos... but down 8 points from the Exit Polls in 2016 with whites?
• If you look at gender, it is 20 pt lead for Trump among men, 17 pt lead for Biden among women. That means Trump is leading by a small margin in Florida.
• One last oddity, party ID, the Dems and GOP cancel out at 94 to 5 for each, and Biden is polling a 51 to 40 advantage among Independents. This indicates Biden has a healthy high end of margin of error lead.

If you ever wanted a muddled poll, this is your poll!

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters



Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Do you?
While the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably, for example, by the United States Census Bureau, "Hispanic" is a different term that refers to native speakers of Spanish, or have Spanish-speaking ancestry, while "Latino" is more frequently used to refer generally to anyone of Latin American origin or ancestry, ...

The term "Latino" is used in the Marist poll. Also, you are supposed to source your direct quotes.

I think Krystal Ball hits the nail on the head:

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZRdQo9xIUs[/YOUTUBE]

Basically, Biden's campaign message is all about "restore the soul of the nation". It just doesn't connect with the Hispanic contingent, at least not in Florida apparently. Biden wasn't really well known to the population in Florida, and Trump's "he's a closeted Marxist" attack (a ludicrous proposal) might be more effective there than in places where he is a known quantity.

Biden's team hasn't done much with regards to outreach, although, potentially he could effectively. The team hasn't listened to people from the Sanders campaign, which did very well with Hispanics in the primary. He really needs to listen to Chuck Rocha who was behind the Sanders campaigns' Latino outreach. Instead, they are sticking hard to the Mike Donilon strategy, again, this is about "winning back the soul of the nation", not about issues or policy. Which may work, but it's going to appeal to middle class and older whites.


Democrats have never really grappled with why Trump has outperformed with Latinos given the narrative that he is essentially an anti-Latino fascist. Recall, he did better than Romney with the Latino vote.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Well, gas taxes are a problem. That pays for roads and upkeep of roads. So it will need some changes as to how roads are financed. It is just that if changes are made, I prefer that to be designed by competent experts, not GOP idiots controlling Congress. Some of this will have to be at the state level. The same issue needs to be dealt with in the case of solar and wind power. Who pays for the electrical grid, the lines, and related equipment and upkeep?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That Marist poll is very weird!

• Trump has majority of Latinos and Whites... but not leading in Florida?! That seems in error. It Trump loses just a couple points among Latinos, doing better than he did in Florida in 2016 with Latinos, he'd lose? That is hard to swallow. We know that Cubans pull to the right, but Puerto Rico transplants certainly aren't going to be liking Trump.
• Trump is up substantially among Latinos... but down 8 points from the Exit Polls in 2016 with whites?
• If you look at gender, it is 20 pt lead for Trump among men, 17 pt lead for Biden among women. That means Trump is leading by a small margin in Florida.
• One last oddity, party ID, the Dems and GOP cancel out at 94 to 5 for each, and Biden is polling a 51 to 40 advantage among Independents. This indicates Biden has a healthy high end of margin of error lead.

If you ever wanted a muddled poll, this is your poll!
The term "Latino" is used in the Marist poll. Also, you are supposed to source your direct quotes.

I think Krystal Ball hits the nail on the head:

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZRdQo9xIUs[/YOUTUBE]

Basically, Biden's campaign message is all about "restore the soul of the nation". It just doesn't connect with the Hispanic contingent, at least not in Florida apparently. Biden wasn't really well known to the population in Florida, and Trump's "he's a closeted Marxist" attack (a ludicrous proposal) might be more effective there than in places where he is a known quantity.

Biden is up 69 to 23 (3 to 1) on Hispanics in Arizona. 71 to 23 in Texas!

The Marist poll isn't the only poll showing Hispanic support growing for Trump in Florida, but the results of the poll are quite wonky and inconsistent. I can look at the data and tell you that both Biden and Trump are winning. Regardless, Hispanic support in Texas and the Southwest is NOT following suit with what may be being seen in Florida.

 

[Elixir]

That Marist poll is very weird!

• Trump has majority of Latinos and Whites... but not leading in Florida?! That seems in error. It Trump loses just a couple points among Latinos, doing better than he did in Florida in 2016 with Latinos, he'd lose? That is hard to swallow. We know that Cubans pull to the right, but Puerto Rico transplants certainly aren't going to be liking Trump.
• Trump is up substantially among Latinos... but down 8 points from the Exit Polls in 2016 with whites?
• If you look at gender, it is 20 pt lead for Trump among men, 17 pt lead for Biden among women. That means Trump is leading by a small margin in Florida.
• One last oddity, party ID, the Dems and GOP cancel out at 94 to 5 for each, and Biden is polling a 51 to 40 advantage among Independents. This indicates Biden has a healthy high end of margin of error lead.

If you ever wanted a muddled poll, this is your poll!
The term "Latino" is used in the Marist poll. Also, you are supposed to source your direct quotes.

I think Krystal Ball hits the nail on the head:

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZRdQo9xIUs[/YOUTUBE]

Basically, Biden's campaign message is all about "restore the soul of the nation". It just doesn't connect with the Hispanic contingent, at least not in Florida apparently. Biden wasn't really well known to the population in Florida, and Trump's "he's a closeted Marxist" attack (a ludicrous proposal) might be more effective there than in places where he is a known quantity.

Biden is up 69 to 23 (3 to 1) on Hispanics in Arizona.

Now, if we can get them to mail in their AZ ballots, then go to FL and vote in person...

 

[J842P]

Biden is up 69 to 23 (3 to 1) on Hispanics in Arizona.

I'm not sure how different that is compared to the 2016 results, but here's a pretty interesting article on WaPo about the Hispanic vote in Arizona in 2016:

https://webcache.googleusercontent....d-trump-heres-why/+&cd=14&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Apparently, there was a significant rural/urban divide.

 

[KeepTalking]

All Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters



Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Well, the poll isn't of all Cubans. Of course, George Bush got close to these numbers, I think, in 2004 he got something like 45% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, and did well overall.

Right. The larger point, however, is that you can't look at polls of hispanics (or latinos) in Florida, and say that hispanic voters in general are abandoning the Democrat party for the Republican party. The fact of the matter is that the Republican party has historically enjoyed the support of hispanics in Florida, due to the large population of Cuban Americans there. Anyone with awareness of American politics should know that. As usual, angelo is arguing from a position of ignorance.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I am not 'telling myself that'; it's a fact. A statement that is demonstrably true, and not subject to opinion.

But it isn't about you, it is about everyone else. Do you want grandma to die of bubonic plague? Are you saying you never itch so you know you're healthy?

No, I am saying that there's no such thing as an asymptomatic carrier of fleas, so I know you're a simpleton and a hypocrite. The reasoning behind this is set out above.

For more information, please re-read this post.

You're the one who doesn't care of grandma dies of bubonic plague, and you are the one calling me a hypocrite. You preach "it's not about you" but the moment it isn't about you then you reject the responsibility you say everyone else has, and you are the one calling me a hypocrite.

 

[Treedbear]

No, I am saying that there's no such thing as an asymptomatic carrier of fleas, so I know you're a simpleton and a hypocrite. The reasoning behind this is set out above.

For more information, please re-read this post.

You're the one who doesn't care of grandma dies of bubonic plague, and you are the one calling me a hypocrite. You preach "it's not about you" but the moment it isn't about you then you reject the responsibility you say everyone else has, and you are the one calling me a hypocrite.

You can drop the phony arguments conflating bubonic plague with the Covid pandemic. Trump admits on tape that he knew from the beginning that it was far, far worse than the flu and that, right now, he says he was "playing down" that fact to the public in order to avoid a panic. So you can forget about flea collars for awhile. We need to avoid the panic that would create. At least a panic in the base, because they are so feeble minded there's no telling what they might do. Better they should die by the millions than foster doubts in his leadership. Or maybe he's just a psychopath. Let nobody ever again say that he's an ignorant moron who can't figure out the truth. Trump is the only one who can save us from ourselves. Not to worry though because Trump revealed to Woodward that we have a new secret weapon that not even Russia or China know of.