Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Jayjay]

Doesn't seem like much of an explosion for a "weapons depot".

No secondaries, that's a miss.

We Have Questions About Russia's Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine (Updated)

The apparent first use of Russia's air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile against a target in Ukraine doesn't all add up.

www.thedrive.com

In satellite imagery The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs, you can clearly see the farm featured in the video. It was partially destroyed by the time the image was taken, on March 12th, 2022, a week before this video was released and news of Kinzhal's use was distributed:

This also answers our question as to the UAV's presence above the target area. The anti-air threat is nothing in Ukraine's east as it is in the west. This also calls into question, even more, why a missile of Kinzhal's nature would be used on a target close to Russian territory and on what appears to be a farm's barn or large chicken coup.

With all this in mind, it is very unlikely we are seeing a Kinzhal missile being used in the video. Whether or not one was used at all, we cannot answer that. Maybe there was another target somewhere, but this was not it.

We will continue to look into the matter and keep you updated as to what we find out.

Much more in the link. Looks like just more propaganda.

Or those were some seriously dangerous chickens.

One would think that the Russian ministry of defense wouldn't be stupid enough to post videos like this when they know they'll be caught. But apparently they are. I guess it's for internal consumption, where nobody is going to question the veracity of the video, and they get to show a big boom for Russian TV audiences.

What's interesting is that apparently Ukrainian sources admitted to weapons warehouse being hit. So something did happen (could also be disinformation from Ukraine so as not to give Russia feedback about success/failure of the hit) , but the video is total bunk from another older incident.

 

[ZiprHead]

video shows footage of original “go Fuck Yourself” moment, then footage of a night attack on ship and morning smoking ship.

 

[Rhea]

That is a great video. I’m glad to see the ”go fuck yourself” recording.

 

[Jayjay]

That is a great video. I’m glad to see the ”go fuck yourself” recording.

War propaganda can be very satisfying at times. Especially when it tells the story of an underdog sticking it up to the oppressor.

 

[Rhea]

That is a great video. I’m glad to see the ”go fuck yourself” recording.

War propaganda can be very satisfying at times. Especially when it tells the story of an underdog sticking it up to the oppressor.

Tell me more.

Do you think it is propaganda in the sense that it gives false information? What part?

Do you think it is propaganda in the sense that it is misleading? Hiding part of the story that should be concurrent? What part?

Do you think it is propaganda in the sense that it tells only part of the story, and that it represents a position that always tells only one side of the story, leaving the viewer ignorant?

I expect an evening news segment to always be today’s small snippet and the greater context is assumed. It’s true that this can lead to echo-chamber effects if the viewer is not putting in the work of retaining yesterday’s context. I think we can watch it and fully understand that. Yes, focusing on a moment of success is propaganda, and is satisfying. But not inherently bad by itself if the outlet gives alternate views on different days.

 

[Harry Bosch]

That is a great video. I’m glad to see the ”go fuck yourself” recording.

War propaganda can be very satisfying at times. Especially when it tells the story of an underdog sticking it up to the oppressor.

Do you have evidence that this is "war propaganda"? IOW, that it is biased or misleading? However, even if it is demonstrated to be propaganda, I'm willing to give Ukrainians wide berth here. Russians are fighting to provide water to a land that they stole. Ukrainians are fighting for their lives. They are outnumbered dramatically. They are the defenders.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Eu needs to get off their duffs and enter into long term LNG contracts with the US, AU, and QA where possible. Both the US and QA have more LNG coming on line.
This would be a long term fuck you to Putin.

Qatar and global LNG: Potential pivot from Asia to Europe?

 

[Jayjay]

That is a great video. I’m glad to see the ”go fuck yourself” recording.

War propaganda can be very satisfying at times. Especially when it tells the story of an underdog sticking it up to the oppressor.

Tell me more.

Do you think it is propaganda in the sense that it gives false information? What part?

First, propaganda doesn't need to give false information. In fact Ukraine is winning the propaganda war because most of it is based on truth, whereas Russia propaganda tends to be flat out lies.

But in this case, the people did eventually surrender, so their response was irrelevant to the outcome. It's just something that makes us feel good on an emotional level. And now the ship is sunk (allegedly), so the villain of the story gets its comeuppance. It's a narrative like this that makes it so pleasing. But the impact to the war is probably nil.

I expect an evening news segment to always be today’s small snippet and the greater context is assumed. It’s true that this can lead to echo-chamber effects if the viewer is not putting in the work of retaining yesterday’s context. I think we can watch it and fully understand that. Yes, focusing on a moment of success is propaganda, and is satisfying. But not inherently bad by itself if the outlet gives alternate views on different days.

But in the end, we might not get alternate views, if there is a new heartfelt emotional story for every day. Yesterday it may have been a sinking of the evil ship. Tomorrow some kid being saved from the rubble. But after months and months of fighting when Russia slowly wins, we, the ignorant public, will end up just wondering what the heck happened. How could Ukraine lose when there were brave people saying "fuck you" to ships bombing them, and social media full of saved puppies or something?

 

[Jayjay]

Eu needs to get off their duffs and enter into long term LNG contracts with the US, AU, and QA where possible. Both the US and QA have more LNG coming on line.
This would be a long term fuck you to Putin.

Qatar and global LNG: Potential pivot from Asia to Europe?

It's not happening overnight. Europe doesn't have the LNG terminals or other infrastructure, and also, it will be more expensive than Russian gas. I think Europe is now forced to reduce not only its reliance on Russian gas, but natural gas in general.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

video shows footage of original “go Fuck Yourself” moment, then footage of a night attack on ship and morning smoking ship.

The ship was probably not damaged.

The Curious Case Of Russia's 'Back From The Dead' Warship That Ukraine Supposedly Struck

One of Russia's newest warships was said to have been struck by Ukrainian rockets, but has shown up unscathed in Crimea.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Artemus]

The deputy commander of the Russian Black Sea fleet has reportedly been killed. They've lost a lot of senior officers, it appears.
ETA: Rank of First Rank Captain, which NATO considers equal to OF-5, or US naval captain.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The deputy commander of the Russian Black Sea fleet has reportedly been killed. They've lost a lot of senior officers, it appears.
ETA: Rank of First Rank Captain, which NATO considers equal to OF-5, or US naval captain.

Seems like Ukraine is able to jam Russian communications to the point that commanders are forced to use cellphones which Ukraine tracks.

Retired Gen. Petraeus explains how Ukrainians are taking out Russian generals

The problem is there is no sense of urgency or mission within the Russian units, nothing like noncoms in american military to keep things moving and take initiative. People just wait for their next orders. Sounds like more soviet centralized control.

 

[Rhea]

First, propaganda doesn't need to give false information. In fact Ukraine is winning the propaganda war because most of it is based on truth, whereas Russia propaganda tends to be flat out lies.

I agree it doesn’t need to be lies to be propaganda, that’s why I wrote several choices to find out which you meant.

I also believe propaganda is not inherently bad. LIke anti-cigarette propoganda has saved America a lot of money in medical expenses.

That’s why I was asking questions to find out what your main point was.

But in this case, the people did eventually surrender, so their response was irrelevant to the outcome. It's just something that makes us feel good on an emotional level.

So that was propaganda with omission, because it would have been relevant to remind that they did surrender.

And now the ship is sunk (allegedly), so the villain of the story gets its comeuppance. It's a narrative like this that makes it so pleasing. But the impact to the war is probably nil.


But in the end, we might not get alternate views, if there is a new heartfelt emotional story for every day. Yesterday it may have been a sinking of the evil ship. Tomorrow some kid being saved from the rubble. But after months and months of fighting when Russia slowly wins, we, the ignorant public, will end up just wondering what the heck happened. How could Ukraine lose when there were brave people saying "fuck you" to ships bombing them, and social media full of saved puppies or something?

And I agree that if the propaganda is all about the successes, then we will indeed make bad choices based on misinformation, and I am not a fan of that.

And it looks like it might not have been sunk, either, so corrections should happen.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

One would think that the Russian ministry of defense wouldn't be stupid enough to post videos like this when they know they'll be caught. But apparently they are. I guess it's for internal consumption, where nobody is going to question the veracity of the video, and they get to show a big boom for Russian TV audiences.

Yeah, the places that censor things put out an awful lot of utter junk because people there won't call them on it. That doesn't mean they actually believe it.

What's interesting is that apparently Ukrainian sources admitted to weapons warehouse being hit. So something did happen (could also be disinformation from Ukraine so as not to give Russia feedback about success/failure of the hit) , but the video is total bunk from another older incident.

Yeah, it's in their interest to put out disinformation about targeting.

In practice most weapons go boom when they're hit. If that's a weapons warehouse there's minimal if any ammunition present.

It's also possible that it's something in between--say, an artillery piece wheeled into a barn for concealment. No secondaries, valid target but not a worthwhile target.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

video shows footage of original “go Fuck Yourself” moment, then footage of a night attack on ship and morning smoking ship.

Missile battery?!

No, that's a MLRS firing. Rocket artillery, not missiles.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And I agree that if the propaganda is all about the successes, then we will indeed make bad choices based on misinformation, and I am not a fan of that.

And it looks like it might not have been sunk, either, so corrections should happen.

The Ukrainian operation took place at night. It would be very possible for them to have misidentified the ship they lured into their trap.

 

[SLD]

What happened to Russia's Air Force?

Was there no plan because it was a bluff and when Putin got nothing, his pride took over? It seems like they are making it up as they go.

That may very well be what happened. Putin holds a tight rein and didn’t share his plans with almost anyone. Likely his higher defense officials came up with a vague plan and thought they could just shock and awe their way through the war and it would be over by early March. Ukraine recently captured some documents indicating that they anticipated the war to end after only 12 days. Fat chance. They’ve yet to capture a major city as Mariupol continues to hold out despite medieval conditions. I‘d bet they can continue fighting street by street for another two weeks.

Every military is taking a hard look at how this fight is going. Air power and armored power, the mainstays of armed forces for decades seem to be at a disadvantage. Small unit tactics, special forces and close combat are making a decisive impact in blunting the offensive. It’s no longer blitzkrieg but kind of a defensive war much like WWI, with both sides digging in and hardly moving. Whether that’s due to Russian incompetence, or the nature of modern defensive weaponry, I.e. anti armor and air defense weapons, remains to be seen. Info ops are key. And Ukraine is winning that hands down thanks to Russian paranoia about sharing anything.

But one thing is for certain, this has proven the weakness of Russia’s conventional military forces. They wouldn’t stand a chance against NATO without nukes. But every military out there is going to be breaking down their forces, reorganizing them, and totally rethinking their strategies as a result of this. I wish I weren’t retired. Studying the lessons learned is going to be quite something.

 

[Elixir]

If Putin ends up gaining a single acre of Ukrainian territory, I am afraid this foreshadows a period of continued cases where whatever dictators are able, ruthless and corrupt enough, execute genocidal land grabs all over the planet.
It’s critical to prevent that from happening.

 

[Jayjay]

If Putin ends up gaining a single acre of Ukrainian territory, I am afraid this foreshadows a period of continued cases where whatever dictators are able, ruthless and corrupt enough, execute genocidal land grabs all over the planet.

So you predict no change to status quo?

 

[Elixir]

If Putin ends up gaining a single acre of Ukrainian territory, I am afraid this foreshadows a period of continued cases where whatever dictators are able, ruthless and corrupt enough, execute genocidal land grabs all over the planet.

So you predict no change to status quo?

Wish I could.
Looks like a mess that will be protracted and painful for everyone, and irrevocably and tragically transformative for Ukraine and what’s left of its population.
Guess there’s always a chance though… we could be one blootclot or a few milligrams of novachok away from a much rosier outcome.