Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[TV and credit cards]

Ukrainian Railways Chief Says 'Honest' Belarusians Are Cutting Russian Supplies By Train

“At the present moment, I can say that there is no railway connection between Ukraine and Belarus. I cannot discuss details, but I am grateful to Belarus’s railway workers for what they are doing,”
- Oleksandr Kamyshin, Director of the Ukrzaliznytsya State Railroad

And Belarusian authorities aren't doing anything about it? Sounds good.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

What happened to Russia's Air Force?

Was there no plan because it was a bluff and when Putin got nothing, his pride took over? It seems like they are making it up as they go.

That may very well be what happened. Putin holds a tight rein and didn’t share his plans with almost anyone. Likely his higher defense officials came up with a vague plan and thought they could just shock and awe their way through the war and it would be over by early March. Ukraine recently captured some documents indicating that they anticipated the war to end after only 12 days. Fat chance. They’ve yet to capture a major city as Mariupol continues to hold out despite medieval conditions. I‘d bet they can continue fighting street by street for another two weeks.

Every military is taking a hard look at how this fight is going. Air power and armored power, the mainstays of armed forces for decades seem to be at a disadvantage. Small unit tactics, special forces and close combat are making a decisive impact in blunting the offensive. It’s no longer blitzkrieg but kind of a defensive war much like WWI, with both sides digging in and hardly moving. Whether that’s due to Russian incompetence, or the nature of modern defensive weaponry, I.e. anti armor and air defense weapons, remains to be seen. Info ops are key. And Ukraine is winning that hands down thanks to Russian paranoia about sharing anything.

But one thing is for certain, this has proven the weakness of Russia’s conventional military forces. They wouldn’t stand a chance against NATO without nukes. But every military out there is going to be breaking down their forces, reorganizing them, and totally rethinking their strategies as a result of this. I wish I weren’t retired. Studying the lessons learned is going to be quite something.

I feel the same way. When I did resign my commission I was told that because of my combat arms air defense artillery specialty I could be recalled in case of national emergency. Well, that came and went.

My wife and kids are glad we don't live in Europe.

 

[Copernicus]

And I agree that if the propaganda is all about the successes, then we will indeed make bad choices based on misinformation, and I am not a fan of that.

And it looks like it might not have been sunk, either, so corrections should happen.

The Ukrainian operation took place at night. It would be very possible for them to have misidentified the ship they lured into their trap.

I am skeptical of information from both sides in this war, and I agree with Jayjay that the Vasiliy Bykov footage looked a lot like a propaganda piece. It showed pictures of the ship, which looks designed for stealth operations that would make it difficult to track by radar. Then it showed missiles being fired in the dark and a claim that a fire in the distance was evidence that the Vasiliy Bykov had been hit. How could they possibly know that? Nevertheless, they released this footage to the Western media, which presented it as if it were factual. Next, we see another video claiming that it hadn't been destroyed. What evidence do we really have one way or the other? None that I can see, just contradictory claims and video images that prove nothing. In fact, we already know that the Ukrainians, as well as the Russians, have been producing faked information about their supposed victories and making unverifiable claims. Even footage from video games has been used to produce fake news. Besides the shooting war that is taking place, there is also an information war designed to bolster and/or sap the morale of one side or the other.

Video shows a Ukrainian fighter pilot shooting down a Russian plane.

 

[bilby]

The fact is that it has never been possible for civilians like us to know what's really going on during any war, unless it's happening to us - and even then, it's unlikely that we will be able to tease out any information about strategy; and even local tactical information, such as exactly which side is shelling us, may be uncertain.

Trying to understand the bigger picture is likely futile until thirty or more years after the fighting is over, when governments start treating information as history, rather than as propaganda and/or intelligence.

But all of that is OK; None of us has any worthwhile influence on these events, so we don't really need to know anyway.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And I agree that if the propaganda is all about the successes, then we will indeed make bad choices based on misinformation, and I am not a fan of that.

And it looks like it might not have been sunk, either, so corrections should happen.

The Ukrainian operation took place at night. It would be very possible for them to have misidentified the ship they lured into their trap.

I am skeptical of information from both sides in this war, and I agree with Jayjay that the Vasiliy Bykov footage looked a lot like a propaganda piece. It showed pictures of the ship, which looks designed for stealth operations that would make it difficult to track by radar. Then it showed missiles being fired in the dark and a claim that a fire in the distance was evidence that the Vasiliy Bykov had been hit. How could they possibly know that? Nevertheless, they released this footage to the Western media, which presented it as if it were factual. Next, we see another video claiming that it hadn't been destroyed. What evidence do we really have one way or the other? None that I can see, just contradictory claims and video images that prove nothing. In fact, we already know that the Ukrainians, as well as the Russians, have been producing faked information about their supposed victories and making unverifiable claims. Even footage from video games has been used to produce fake news. Besides the shooting war that is taking place, there is also an information war designed to bolster and/or sap the morale of one side or the other.

Video shows a Ukrainian fighter pilot shooting down a Russian plane.

The thing is propaganda is normally stuff that isn't easy to disprove. Thus I don't think they would claim sinking of a specific ship unless they believed they had sunk it.

 

[Elixir]

propaganda is normally stuff that isn't easy to disprove

Ah, those were the good old days.

 

[SLD]

So apparently, the Russian Defense ministry accidentally posted their casualty figures and they admitted over 9,800 deaths and 16,000 wounded. The post though was quickly removed. I’d suspect it’s accurate though. Pathetic. What a shit show this has turned out to be for Russia. I can only hope that their citizens will rise up soon and put a stop to this. Maybe the military will revolt. To lose 5% of your forces KIA in less than 4 weeks of fighting and lose 12.5% overall is horrendous. We haven’t seen these kinds of casualty figures since WWII, not even in the Iran Iraq war, but who knows about those figures. The US didn’t suffer those kinds of figures in Korea or Vietnam.

These people are going through utter hell On both sides. The modern battlefield is highly lethal.

I’ve only had one true combat experience, an RPG blowing up in the other side of a nice big concrete wall and some AK-47 fire sprayed randomly in my direction. I was not really in any danger, but I never forgot how it made me feel. The sheer terror of it was indescribable. I recovered my composure fairly quickly, and when they attacked us again the next night, I was not as scared. Still, what these people must be going through is utterly awful. It needs to stop, now!

 

[Copernicus]

And I agree that if the propaganda is all about the successes, then we will indeed make bad choices based on misinformation, and I am not a fan of that.

And it looks like it might not have been sunk, either, so corrections should happen.

The Ukrainian operation took place at night. It would be very possible for them to have misidentified the ship they lured into their trap.

I am skeptical of information from both sides in this war, and I agree with Jayjay that the Vasiliy Bykov footage looked a lot like a propaganda piece. It showed pictures of the ship, which looks designed for stealth operations that would make it difficult to track by radar. Then it showed missiles being fired in the dark and a claim that a fire in the distance was evidence that the Vasiliy Bykov had been hit. How could they possibly know that? Nevertheless, they released this footage to the Western media, which presented it as if it were factual. Next, we see another video claiming that it hadn't been destroyed. What evidence do we really have one way or the other? None that I can see, just contradictory claims and video images that prove nothing. In fact, we already know that the Ukrainians, as well as the Russians, have been producing faked information about their supposed victories and making unverifiable claims. Even footage from video games has been used to produce fake news. Besides the shooting war that is taking place, there is also an information war designed to bolster and/or sap the morale of one side or the other.

Video shows a Ukrainian fighter pilot shooting down a Russian plane.

The thing is propaganda is normally stuff that isn't easy to disprove. Thus I don't think they would claim sinking of a specific ship unless they believed they had sunk it.

I started reading Soviet propaganda back in the early 60's, when I first learned Russian and subscribed to newspapers and magazines from the Soviet Union. I think I've got a pretty good grasp of how it works. In a surprisingly large number of cases, it is easy to disprove. The problem is that not everyone gets the antidote or takes it when they do get it. Most people will believe what they want to believe. People who make up propaganda therefore do not concern themselves overly much with making it difficult to disprove. It just has to have an air of plausibility. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are shy about spinning stories to serve their own purpose, and neither side has a reputation for making a strong effort to be truthful. In Ukraine's case, they want stories that help their people maintain some level of high morale, encourage western powers to make greater efforts to support their military needs, and convince Russians that they need to abandon the invasion.

 

[SLD]

Another interesting article from the Atlantic.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

Ukraine is winning. We’re just afraid to say it, fearful of jinxing it. But the truth is that while Ukraine is doing the fighting, they’ve got the support of the entire west behind them giving them a shitload of weapons behind them. It is a war between the West and Russia, we’re just using the Ukrainians to do the actual fighting.

Even if Putin is going to throw the entire weight of his military behind the attack, it still won’t work. The Ukrainians can put as many boots into the fight as he can most likely. And with the Russian economy in tatters, he’s going to just lose.

A very interesting point the article makes regards Belarus. It’s the weak link in Russia’s plans. Right now we’ve had reports of Belarusians sabitaging rail links to stop the Russians. Putin is trying to goad Lulashenko into actually joining the invasion, but that could so seriously weaken Lukashenko’s already tenuous grip on power. If Belarus falls, and suddenly the new government says no more to Russia, Putin’s supply lines to the north of Ukraine would be cut. Putin cannot invade Belarus as well.

The whole kit and kaboodle would then collapse.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Another interesting article from the Atlantic.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

Ukraine is winning. We’re just afraid to say it, fearful of jinxing it. But the truth is that while Ukraine is doing the fighting, they’ve got the support of the entire west behind them giving them a shitload of weapons behind them. It is a war between the West and Russia, we’re just using the Ukrainians to do the actual fighting.

Even if Putin is going to throw the entire weight of his military behind the attack, it still won’t work. The Ukrainians can put as many boots into the fight as he can most likely. And with the Russian economy in tatters, he’s going to just lose.

A very interesting point the article makes regards Belarus. It’s the weak link in Russia’s plans. Right now we’ve had reports of Belarusians sabitaging rail links to stop the Russians. Putin is trying to goad Lulashenko into actually joining the invasion, but that could so seriously weaken Lukashenko’s already tenuous grip on power. If Belarus falls, and suddenly the new government says no more to Russia, Putin’s supply lines to the north of Ukraine would be cut. Putin cannot invade Belarus as well.

The whole kit and kaboodle would then collapse.

What I’ve in bold is what I find wrong with this article: NATO official sees Russia-Ukraine war entering a stalemate: ‘Neither side here can win’
As long as we keep our eye on the ball and continue to supply Ukraine with all that it needs, Ukraine will win this war.
What I am still curious about is the indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian cities. I assume (hated word) some of this is originating from within the borders of Mother Russia and come the day Ukrainian forces may have to go within to stop it.
The next event I hope to see is if all is true about the supply lines from Belarus drying up, we should see the assault on Kyiv whither soon.

 

[Harry Bosch]

So apparently, the Russian Defense ministry accidentally posted their casualty figures and they admitted over 9,800 deaths and 16,000 wounded. The post though was quickly removed. I’d suspect it’s accurate though. Pathetic. What a shit show this has turned out to be for Russia. I can only hope that their citizens will rise up soon and put a stop to this. Maybe the military will revolt. To lose 5% of your forces KIA in less than 4 weeks of fighting and lose 12.5% overall is horrendous. We haven’t seen these kinds of casualty figures since WWII, not even in the Iran Iraq war, but who knows about those figures. The US didn’t suffer those kinds of figures in Korea or Vietnam.

These people are going through utter hell On both sides. The modern battlefield is highly lethal.

I’ve only had one true combat experience, an RPG blowing up in the other side of a nice big concrete wall and some AK-47 fire sprayed randomly in my direction. I was not really in any danger, but I never forgot how it made me feel. The sheer terror of it was indescribable. I recovered my composure fairly quickly, and when they attacked us again the next night, I was not as scared. Still, what these people must be going through is utterly awful. It needs to stop, now!

Did that happen in Iraq? I don't doubt you in the least. And then think of all the kids huddling in bomb shelters as the Russians are raining down their shells trying to kill them.

 

[SLD]

So apparently, the Russian Defense ministry accidentally posted their casualty figures and they admitted over 9,800 deaths and 16,000 wounded. The post though was quickly removed. I’d suspect it’s accurate though. Pathetic. What a shit show this has turned out to be for Russia. I can only hope that their citizens will rise up soon and put a stop to this. Maybe the military will revolt. To lose 5% of your forces KIA in less than 4 weeks of fighting and lose 12.5% overall is horrendous. We haven’t seen these kinds of casualty figures since WWII, not even in the Iran Iraq war, but who knows about those figures. The US didn’t suffer those kinds of figures in Korea or Vietnam.

These people are going through utter hell On both sides. The modern battlefield is highly lethal.

I’ve only had one true combat experience, an RPG blowing up in the other side of a nice big concrete wall and some AK-47 fire sprayed randomly in my direction. I was not really in any danger, but I never forgot how it made me feel. The sheer terror of it was indescribable. I recovered my composure fairly quickly, and when they attacked us again the next night, I was not as scared. Still, what these people must be going through is utterly awful. It needs to stop, now!

Did that happen in Iraq? I don't doubt you in the least. And then think of all the kids huddling in bomb shelters as the Russians are raining down their shells trying to kill them.

Afghanistan. Iraq was much worse. I think you get used to it, according to my friends in Iraq. At least to some extent.

 

[Harry Bosch]

So apparently, the Russian Defense ministry accidentally posted their casualty figures and they admitted over 9,800 deaths and 16,000 wounded. The post though was quickly removed. I’d suspect it’s accurate though. Pathetic. What a shit show this has turned out to be for Russia. I can only hope that their citizens will rise up soon and put a stop to this. Maybe the military will revolt. To lose 5% of your forces KIA in less than 4 weeks of fighting and lose 12.5% overall is horrendous. We haven’t seen these kinds of casualty figures since WWII, not even in the Iran Iraq war, but who knows about those figures. The US didn’t suffer those kinds of figures in Korea or Vietnam.

These people are going through utter hell On both sides. The modern battlefield is highly lethal.

I’ve only had one true combat experience, an RPG blowing up in the other side of a nice big concrete wall and some AK-47 fire sprayed randomly in my direction. I was not really in any danger, but I never forgot how it made me feel. The sheer terror of it was indescribable. I recovered my composure fairly quickly, and when they attacked us again the next night, I was not as scared. Still, what these people must be going through is utterly awful. It needs to stop, now!

Did that happen in Iraq? I don't doubt you in the least. And then think of all the kids huddling in bomb shelters as the Russians are raining down their shells trying to kill them.

Afghanistan. Iraq was much worse. I think you get used to it, according to my friends in Iraq. At least to some extent.

Well, there were far more Nazis in Iraq that we had to go after than were in Afghanistan.

 

[Jayjay]

Another interesting article from the Atlantic.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

Ukraine is winning. We’re just afraid to say it, fearful of jinxing it. But the truth is that while Ukraine is doing the fighting, they’ve got the support of the entire west behind them giving them a shitload of weapons behind them. It is a war between the West and Russia, we’re just using the Ukrainians to do the actual fighting.

Even if Putin is going to throw the entire weight of his military behind the attack, it still won’t work. The Ukrainians can put as many boots into the fight as he can most likely. And with the Russian economy in tatters, he’s going to just lose.

A very interesting point the article makes regards Belarus. It’s the weak link in Russia’s plans. Right now we’ve had reports of Belarusians sabitaging rail links to stop the Russians. Putin is trying to goad Lulashenko into actually joining the invasion, but that could so seriously weaken Lukashenko’s already tenuous grip on power. If Belarus falls, and suddenly the new government says no more to Russia, Putin’s supply lines to the north of Ukraine would be cut. Putin cannot invade Belarus as well.

The whole kit and kaboodle would then collapse.

Russia has a couple of advantages though.

One, Russia can fire missiles from Russia or the sea, out of reach of the Ukrainian army. The west can't do that out of fear or escalation. Ukraine could fire back in theory, but Ukrainian weapons are mostly for defense, not offense. It has been said that Russia may be running out of more expensive missiles, but I'm pretty sure it still has plenty left. When in a firefight, I don't think "wait for your enemy to run out of bullets" is the optimal strategy.

Two, Russian homeland propaganda is very effective. It doesn't have to worry about domestic public opinion as much as Ukraine or the countries supporting it. This could come to play when the war drags out and people are getting tired of lack of progress.

Three, nuclear and chemical/biological weapons. That could be the final plan if it starts to look like Ukraine is gaining ground or threatens Crimea.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think the West doesn't want to say Ukraine is winning, because Russia can still technically flatten Ukraine. Russia can not win and leave Ukraine in ruins. And to take a line from sports, Ukraine is less winning compared to Russia is actually not winning.

 

[TomC]

I think the West doesn't want to say Ukraine is winning, because Russia can still technically flatten Ukraine. Russia can not win and leave Ukraine in ruins. And to take a line from sports, Ukraine is less winning compared to Russia is actually not winning.

Also, given the motivation for propaganda, I'm very suspicious of any news reports about winning or losing.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Tom

 

[steve_bank]

The fact that Russia has not taken Kiev by now says a lot.

If Russia flans Ukraine and declares victory it will be a 'Pyrrhic victory'. He wins the battle but in doing so looses in the long term.

The economy is amaged perhaps permantly. Given Putin's dictatorial actions few are going to risk investing in Russia.

Europe will find ways to get off of Russian energy.

No one will trust Russia to keep agreements. Putin tore up the agreement that Russia signed that guaranteed Ukraine integrity.

European unity has been strengthened in th face of the Russian threat. There had been agreement that NATO would not fortify the borders near Russia.

His suppression of free speech has put people in the streets protesting.

He wants Crimea and a lnd path for an imagined propaganda threat of invasion by NATO.

 

[Elixir]

He wants Crimea and a lnd path for an imagined propaganda threat of invasion by NATO.

Yeah well, I want a pony. Tough shit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think the West doesn't want to say Ukraine is winning, because Russia can still technically flatten Ukraine. Russia can not win and leave Ukraine in ruins. And to take a line from sports, Ukraine is less winning compared to Russia is actually not winning.

Also, given the motivation for propaganda, I'm very suspicious of any news reports about winning or losing.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Tom

Actually, it is poor people, but that is beside the point.

 

[TomC]

I think the West doesn't want to say Ukraine is winning, because Russia can still technically flatten Ukraine. Russia can not win and leave Ukraine in ruins. And to take a line from sports, Ukraine is less winning compared to Russia is actually not winning.

Also, given the motivation for propaganda, I'm very suspicious of any news reports about winning or losing.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Tom

Actually, it is poor people, but that is beside the point.

They are a close second.
Tom