Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Copernicus]

Russia signals scaled-back war aims as Ukrainians advance near Kyiv

In an announcement that appeared to indicate that Moscow may be switching to more limited goals, the Russian Defence Ministry said the first phase of its operation was mostly complete,

So phase one was losing ten percent of your armed forces?

and it would now focus on "liberating" two eastern regions claimed by Russian-backed separatists.

I don't know about that. Ukraine may respectfully request their country back in its entirety. At least that's what you write on the missile.

This is a hopeful sign, but it may be too late for Putin to get a face-saving truce that doesn't get a formal Ukrainian recognition of Russian ownership of those territories, Crimea, and a land bridge to it. If he can take Mariupol, he may feel that his land bridge is established, but I doubt that the Ukrainians will cede those territories to him. He would need to declare a truce and try to hold those territories as an occupier. Unfortunately, the truth is getting through to the Russian people, and it isn't likely that they are going to be happy with the sacrifices they have had to make and the massive devastation in Ukraine. So his hold on power is very much in jeopardy, even with a ceasefire in place. The sanctions won't go away overnight, nor will NATO or the EU return to the status quo ante. He is going down for this.

 

[Elixir]

He is going down for this.

I sure hope you’re right. The sooner the better.
Your grasp of the whole situation is evidently better than most here, Copernicus. Maybe that’s partly because of your language skills. But I am very hesitant to embrace any prophecy of Pootey’s doom, having seen the facility with which authoritarian strongmen routinely escape consequences.

 

[Copernicus]

He is going down for this.

I sure hope you’re right. The sooner the better.
Your grasp of the whole situation is evidently better than most here, Copernicus. Maybe that’s partly because of your language skills. But I am very hesitant to embrace any prophecy of Pootey’s doom, having seen the facility with which authoritarian strongmen routinely escape consequences.

He is very well protected and keeps his distance from pretty much everyone in public, so it would be difficult to assassinate him. Stalin made it all the way to a natural death, apparently. However, even the strongest dictator needs a strong base of public support and the support of those around him. IMO, Stalin was better than Putin at projecting an aura of strength and power. Right now, Putin is looking less and less like he has control over what is going on, let alone himself. He is taking on the look of a desperate man. The long table isn't helping his image. So it is hard for me to believe that knives aren't being sharpened behind his back. But that's just the way I see. I'm really nervous about what he'll do next, given his state of mind.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The optimistic, hopeful side of me wishes that Ukraine can recapture all its territory including the eastern areas lost for many years. That is up to Ukraine and Zelensky. Zelensky seems quite able to reflect the will of the people of Ukraine so we shall see. The nice thing that has happened is that the Russians have been exposed, they are not the post WW2 military machine that the world feared.

As an aside it seems that armor is going the way of the battleship because infantry can carry legitimate weaponry to kill tanks. So now the tanks are being outfitted with anti drone and proactive drone technology just like battleships were outfitted with antiaircraft weaponry. But it likely won't be enough. Some new tactical stealth "tank" is probably on the horizon but because so much of the combat is aerial I don't know. Maybe we're in for drone warfare on the tactical battlefield.

The Pig obviously wanted Ukraine to fall quickly and wanted to install Putinstan cronies across the country. What I find most interesting with the present situation is the 402,000 Ukrainian nationals that have been taken to Putinstan. What's up with that? Is this just a reenactment of the standard Soviet ploy to remove the population and bring in Russians? What happens to these people?

 

[Jayjay]

The Pig obviously wanted Ukraine to fall quickly and wanted to install Putinstan cronies across the country. What I find most interesting with the present situation is the 402,000 Ukrainian nationals that have been taken to Putinstan. What's up with that? Is this just a reenactment of the standard Soviet ploy to remove the population and bring in Russians? What happens to these people?

I think it may be partially Ukrainian propaganda. At least some of those people, if not most, might be Russian-speaking folks, possibly immersed in Russian media and narrative for past 8 years, who figure they have better chances fleeing to Russia than Europe. But surely there are some, who only end up in Russia because that was the only way out, and maybe Russia even thinks it can use them as a bargaining chip later to exchange for captured Russian POWs.

There is definitely a ploy to remove the population, but that doesn't necessitate transfer to Russian territory.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I suspect it's a lot more than daily--we have AWACS and EW birds up and are probably giving them the data in at least close to realtime.

Ahh, roger our sat images show you were a little short on that last round, add fifty and come left 0.5 and fire for effect.

I don't think satellites would be very useful for spotting artillery fire and the birds over Poland certainly wouldn't be able to.

I'm thinking more along the lines of Mig sneaking in between those two mountains, illuminate on a bearing of 45 degrees in 30 seconds.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

This is a hopeful sign, but it may be too late for Putin to get a face-saving truce that doesn't get a formal Ukrainian recognition of Russian ownership of those territories, Crimea, and a land bridge to it. If he can take Mariupol, he may feel that his land bridge is established, but I doubt that the Ukrainians will cede those territories to him. He would need to declare a truce and try to hold those territories as an occupier. Unfortunately, the truth is getting through to the Russian people, and it isn't likely that they are going to be happy with the sacrifices they have had to make and the massive devastation in Ukraine. So his hold on power is very much in jeopardy, even with a ceasefire in place. The sanctions won't go away overnight, nor will NATO or the EU return to the status quo ante. He is going down for this.

And now that the Russian army has been devastated by their adventure in Ukraine I suspect Ukraine will engage in far more harrying tactics in the occupied territory. What's Russia going to do about it?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The Pig obviously wanted Ukraine to fall quickly and wanted to install Putinstan cronies across the country. What I find most interesting with the present situation is the 402,000 Ukrainian nationals that have been taken to Putinstan. What's up with that? Is this just a reenactment of the standard Soviet ploy to remove the population and bring in Russians? What happens to these people?

I think it may be partially Ukrainian propaganda. At least some of those people, if not most, might be Russian-speaking folks, possibly immersed in Russian media and narrative for past 8 years, who figure they have better chances fleeing to Russia than Europe. But surely there are some, who only end up in Russia because that was the only way out, and maybe Russia even thinks it can use them as a bargaining chip later to exchange for captured Russian POWs.

There is definitely a ploy to remove the population, but that doesn't necessitate transfer to Russian territory.

Partially, but some have been reported to have been taken by force, leaving behind family.

 

[Artemus]

Is running over your commanding officer with a tank when he got half of your brigade killed a tactic taught in basic training these days?

 

[SLD]

I suspect it's a lot more than daily--we have AWACS and EW birds up and are probably giving them the data in at least close to realtime.

Ahh, roger our sat images show you were a little short on that last round, add fifty and come left 0.5 and fire for effect.

I don't think satellites would be very useful for spotting artillery fire and the birds over Poland certainly wouldn't be able to.

I'm thinking more along the lines of Mig sneaking in between those two mountains, illuminate on a bearing of 45 degrees in 30 seconds.

I was wondering if their planes would link to our AWACS. AWACS could be over in Poland managing the air battle. Russians wouldn’t even know. Well, they might figure it out.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Is running over your commanding officer with a tank when he got half of your brigade killed a tactic taught in basic training these days?

Funny but not so funny.

When I was a cadet I remember a Light Bird telling us about a platoon in Germany that would not fall out for formation. We all thought, "Boy, those guys are fucked for not following orders!" That's why we were still cadets I guess. Fact is the platoon leader was so unpopular he lost command and control of his men. We were taught in no uncertain terms that you must maintain the respect and loyalty of your men., that you are not a dictator. That was the lesson of the story. How true were the actual circumstances? Don't know.

At least the guy didn't get run over and killed but it sure probably fucked his evaluation.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

The abandoned Russian Krasukha-4 command module will be examined by Western spy agencies and shipped to the US, reports say.

news.yahoo.com

Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.

Photos of the unit posted on social media appear to show the container containing the module covered in tree branches, possibly in a hasty camouflage attempt by retreating Russian forces.

The system is designed to jam low-orbit satellites, drones, and missiles, but it is also believed to be able to track NATO aircraft, The Times said.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I suspect it's a lot more than daily--we have AWACS and EW birds up and are probably giving them the data in at least close to realtime.

Ahh, roger our sat images show you were a little short on that last round, add fifty and come left 0.5 and fire for effect.

I don't think satellites would be very useful for spotting artillery fire and the birds over Poland certainly wouldn't be able to.

I'm thinking more along the lines of Mig sneaking in between those two mountains, illuminate on a bearing of 45 degrees in 30 seconds.

I was wondering if their planes would link to our AWACS. AWACS could be over in Poland managing the air battle. Russians wouldn’t even know. Well, they might figure it out.

Data link, probably not. They could do the same thing with a plane as I was suggesting with the SAM battery, though--plain old radio. One of the advantages of being under AWACS coverage is that you can fly around with your radar off letting it watch your back and get you in position to attack. Sure, the other guy knows the AWACS is out there but that doesn't mean he can do anything about it (especially in this situation where it's an off-limit target) but he doesn't know what the AWACS is saying. The fighter doesn't illuminate until he's in an advantageous position and the bad guy is deep in his missile basket. The only counter Moscow has is to deploy their Mainstays to do the same thing--and somehow I don't think they're nearly as good at it.

The Mainstay also can't do anything about SAMs. There's nothing to see until they illuminate and at that point the fighter is in a lot of trouble unless it's carrying an anti-radiation missile--something Russia doesn't seem to be able to accomplish in this war.

 

[Elixir]

Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

The abandoned Russian Krasukha-4 command module will be examined by Western spy agencies and shipped to the US, reports say.

news.yahoo.com

Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.

Photos of the unit posted on social media appear to show the container containing the module covered in tree branches, possibly in a hasty camouflage attempt by retreating Russian forces.

The system is designed to jam low-orbit satellites, drones, and missiles, but it is also believed to be able to track NATO aircraft, The Times said.

Yipes.
Just saw an MSNBC banner announcing that Ukraine has more tanks now than when the invasion began, because the Russians keep running out of fuel and leaving them to the Ukranians.

 

[Copernicus]

Yipes.
Just saw an MSNBC banner announcing that Ukraine has more tanks now than when the invasion began, because the Russians keep running out of fuel and leaving them to the Ukranians.

I wonder how many of those tanks are operational, have fuel supplies, and trained tank crews. It's clear that the Russians have lost an enormous number of tanks, but they turned out not to be as effective as they used to be. Antitank weaponry seems to have worked very well to neutralize them. That is why Russia is relying so heavily on long range weapons like missiles and bombers.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russian POWs being interviewed and shot in the legs. NSFW and not safe for the squeamish

Translation included below the video.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russians open fire on protesters in Kherson

 

[ZiprHead]

Piles of dead civilian bodies in Mariupol

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yipes.
Just saw an MSNBC banner announcing that Ukraine has more tanks now than when the invasion began, because the Russians keep running out of fuel and leaving them to the Ukranians.

I wonder how many of those tanks are operational, have fuel supplies, and trained tank crews. It's clear that the Russians have lost an enormous number of tanks, but they turned out not to be as effective as they used to be. Antitank weaponry seems to have worked very well to neutralize them. That is why Russia is relying so heavily on long range weapons like missiles and bombers.

I suspect the fuel situation is about zero--but Ukraine can refuel them. They should have their original load of ammunition. No idea on what sort of crews Ukraine can provide.

And note that Russia seems to have pretty much shot out it's supply of long range missiles. They're using iron bombs and that means entering Stinger range to reasonably expect to hit the target. (Which probably has something to do with the atrocious accuracy we are seeing--pilots are probably staying out of the Stinger envelope and missing badly because of it.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russian POWs being interviewed and shot in the legs. NSFW and not safe for the squeamish

Translation included below the video.

Look at the thread. Assuming this isn't simply propaganda from Moscow these guys were an artillery unit that had been shelling civilians. Don't expect decent treatment from those you've been engaging in war crimes against.